Ray's amnesty page

[immy]

Hi guys

Hope you are having FUN and not getting chopped up in all what's going on today

I was wrong footed in a short trade on euro yen at lunch time and wondered whether to just cut it and be done with it.
Then, Praise the Lord, 1358GMT 150 pipper of a drop when I gather comments were made about the yen weakness, it redeemed my situation and gave me lovely 7.5% ROI. SEVEN POINT FIVE wow!

Now, seeing Mr Draghi's jaw is probably going up and down, I'm staying away until the dust settles.

I notice that the ewaves indicator has had difficulty labelling the waves, and I don't blame it because when stuff like this is going on Elliott still can't do much to help. Yes The market has a structure, and that is applicable the majority of the time, but when the unexpected comes along (like political speeches and big impact news etc) then the effect can be w5 the other way pretty sharp! And the moves are like 150 in less than a minute because algos go mad, different levels of stops get taken and the whole thing gets pretty dangerous. Not good either if you get adverse slippage.

Fortunately I'm winning more than I am losing, but I must work on improving my average gain per trade, which for the last 50 trades on EJ is running at 7.3 pips. That's still very acceptable, but room for improvement is the biggest room in the world.

Well Done! Ray!

I'd like to comment on your comment about the structure. Do You really think the market went against its structure?

[immy]

One more thing!

We MUST Always remain Flexible with our Expectations and Rigid with Rules! Never get stuck waiting for the 5th wave. It may or may not happen. But while you wait, it gives you CONFIDENCE to take the trade. But if it turns around, we switch our mindset and go with the flow.

IMHO..

Cheers Ray! Happy 150pips! I think i can say how you felt! wooohooo.

[wiseambitions]

As to whether I believe the market has a structure, and goes with it, I can tell you would like me to be agreeing with you eh?

However I think the answer that I would give is that Chaos remains a very appropriate name for the system, it is impossible to predict the future with complete certainty, but that the edge exists all the time the strategy, which is purely technical, gives more pips from wins than lets go in losses.

And it depends on the time frame. There will be some folks who are short and others who are long, and both are 'right' and possibly on the way to winning. There is a video of Jack Schwager talking about this very thing. In my TF the only possible warning of bearish divergence which I was noticeing was the bars in the EW were changing colour, and I happened to be happy about that, seeing I was already short when everything else was saying go long. I had not noticed whether or when comments about the Japanese economy which set it all off were anticipated. Anyway all's well that ends well.

A technical system like this still can't foretell major news, intervention, speeches etc and one of the first things noticeable in the journals is the lack of concern or need for concern about all of those fundamentals - If we tried to integrate the likely reaction to those factors we probably wouldn't do any better, the system works adequately enough within the chaos of market behaviour on technical factors only and long may it continue to do so!

May the pips be with you! And may the stresses flee away.

[wiseambitions]

Good morning guys

Valentines Day trading going on at the flower shop next door to my office this morning! She's doing a roaring sale in a wave 3 or 5 I reckon. Have you bought your beloved red roses yet?

And yesterday I think was Pancakes Day. Well whether or not it was the right day, we had a couple last night with the family at home which were yummy.


This morning I did 3 EJ trades. First was a setup 1, the 2nd two were addons.

Took 51 pips total

Have to admit if I didnt stretch the SL a bit more than the aims box (eg 10 pips) I would have been stopped out with the add-ons..... my preferred entry is of course setup 1. Anyway my trades were in line with the trend in a higher TF and that's how I justified bending the rules.

Had an argument with someone who is not an aimster because I said I find the system works best in the London session, and he said it is obviously optimised. I cannot agree with that being the case, but what I did say was that my/our strategy works on support and resistance (i.e. fractal breakouts are exactly that), and that when the volume is thinner and the market less liquid those principles of trading can be less reliable. I have lost more money than usual from trading in the middle of the night (Asian session) when I couldn't sleep, and think my analysis is correct! (No offence intended)

I find my greatest success comes between 0630 and 1300GMT and having made more than my 50 pips/day target I can do other things now for the rest of the day, with a lovely warm feeling pervading my entire being.

May the pips be with you all !

[immy]

Good morning guys

Valentines Day trading going on at the flower shop next door to my office this morning! She's doing a roaring sale in a wave 3 or 5 I reckon. Have you bought your beloved red roses yet?

And yesterday I think was Pancakes Day. Well whether or not it was the right day, we had a couple last night with the family at home which were yummy.


This morning I did 3 EJ trades. First was a setup 1, the 2nd two were addons.

Took 51 pips total

Have to admit if I didnt stretch the SL a bit more than the aims box (eg 10 pips) I would have been stopped out with the add-ons..... my preferred entry is of course setup 1. Anyway my trades were in line with the trend in a higher TF and that's how I justified bending the rules.

Had an argument with someone who is not an aimster because I said I find the system works best in the London session, and he said it is obviously optimised. I cannot agree with that being the case, but what I did say was that my/our strategy works on support and resistance (i.e. fractal breakouts are exactly that), and that when the volume is thinner and the market less liquid those principles of trading can be less reliable. I have lost more money than usual from trading in the middle of the night (Asian session) when I couldn't sleep, and think my analysis is correct! (No offence intended)

I find my greatest success comes between 0630 and 1300GMT and having made more than my 50 pips/day target I can do other things now for the rest of the day, with a lovely warm feeling pervading my entire being.

May the pips be with you all !

Ray!

I love this post. Its got a bit of everything. Pure knowledge, hands on experience and truth.

We also enjoyed a few pancakes last night. My wife makes both the british and american version. We love em. Sarah and Adam were ecstatic and crushed all of them! We had the flat one's filled with jam and rolled then put some cream/foam on top or drizzle some liquid chocolate . yummy!

and yes, once you hit your 50 pips, you really don't need to stick to your charts. Yo ucan do other stuff if you have to and just merry and rejoice knowing you've done what you wanted to do!

cheers

[wiseambitions]

An infuriating experience this morning turned out ok in the end

I could see EJ liable to breakout just before 0930 GMT and decided to put in an instant order

Terminal said order being processed
Nothing happened
I cancelled
I tried to reenter
It said trade context busy

After about 3 minutes of this I tried again, having flicked through several charts just to confirm both sides of my head were in gear

Eventually it took a trade

I had set a TP of 20 (on a trade manager - not individual for this session).

Saw price rising

The TM automatically reset to BE at about +10

And I could see price retracing

Decided to press instant close
Nothing happened

Checked the charts, and thought of a few naughty words

Then realised my trade was in EU not EJ. Fool me

Anyway after a few moments I saw EU was doing ok, left it running and took the full TP.

So it wasn't such a bad start to the day after all.

I didnt achieve the same luck as Immy the end of last week
I was suffereing a dose of man flu, and it brought me to the realisation, much like Dave of Sydney keeps recording, that one has to be in the right condition before launching any trading decisions.

Profit very very rarely comes by accident in this game. Indeed I must say anyone who prospers in it has worked hard to overcome other gremlins in their head and to be disciplined


I still like EJ on m5, but it needs careful handling as it's a wild pair, 100 pips movement in an hour is not out of the question.

[immy]

An infuriating experience this morning turned out ok in the end

I could see EJ liable to breakout just before 0930 GMT and decided to put in an instant order

Terminal said order being processed
Nothing happened
I cancelled
I tried to reenter
It said trade context busy

After about 3 minutes of this I tried again, having flicked through several charts just to confirm both sides of my head were in gear

Eventually it took a trade

I had set a TP of 20 (on a trade manager - not individual for this session).

Saw price rising

The TM automatically reset to BE at about +10

And I could see price retracing

Decided to press instant close
Nothing happened

Checked the charts, and thought of a few naughty words

Then realised my trade was in EU not EJ. Fool me

Anyway after a few moments I saw EU was doing ok, left it running and took the full TP.

So it wasn't such a bad start to the day after all.

I didnt achieve the same luck as Immy the end of last week
I was suffereing a dose of man flu, and it brought me to the realisation, much like Dave of Sydney keeps recording, that one has to be in the right condition before launching any trading decisions.

Profit very very rarely comes by accident in this game. Indeed I must say anyone who prospers in it has worked hard to overcome other gremlins in their head and to be disciplined


I still like EJ on m5, but it needs careful handling as it's a wild pair, 100 pips movement in an hour is not out of the question.

Ray! Interesting read. I can relate to such cockups! haha...

well we gotta trade the same setups 5000 times, to get it into our subconscious then you wont even know and you'd have taken 20 pips on your favourte pair and be playing pool games before you know it! haha.... A golfer and his 10000 shots

[wiseambitions]

One thing we learn from our mistakes is often that we never learn anything from our mistakes



Found another 10 pips on what was probably a w4 counter trade. Dubious whether should have taken as had missed the first few pips when the price dropped out of the aims box before taking this on m5 but all's well that ends well

I didnt wait for full TP as I realised I was probably battling against the trend

[immy]

One thing we learn from our mistakes is often that we never learn anything from our mistakes



Found another 10 pips on what was probably a w4 counter trade. Dubious whether should have taken as had missed the first few pips when the price dropped out of the aims box before taking this on m5 but all's well that ends well

I didnt wait for full TP as I realised I was probably battling against the trend

No Setup, No Trade!

[wiseambitions]

My lucky day

6 winning trades

I'd like a few more days like this, but must accept the occasional loss


Usual setting lately for trades on m5 with EJ

TP 16
BE @ 10

SL 20 (!)
But with manual intervention, depending on if the brain is engaged, to adjust the exits

Usual results daily in region 60 net pips.
I used to have 50 as a weekly target, and this is doing better, however the lot size does need downward regulation due to the volatile behaviour of this pair compared with EU.
Would like to say EJ us up when risk attitude is 'on', as would be the case with EU etc but actually I don't think it's as easy as all that.
Anyway, the beauty of Aims is it is mainly technical and it works, and you dont need to try and understand the fundamentals...... The bit that's not technical or fundamental is cerebral (? ! !), as there needs to be something in the brain controlling emotions, impulse and human reasonings, all of which can otherwise play havoc as we well know.......