Immy's Corner [The Setup The Hunt - T20's and more]

[immy]

[center]Do You Understand This?[/center]

[center]Higher Probability Setups are Breakouts in the Direction of Higher Time Frame Trends[/center]

[immy]

This lady is amazing!
[youtube]BquDGE9KxZQ[/youtube]

[Herbert]

Watching the video, and being a "beginner", I must confess.... Most of what they/she talking about i have no clue ... (rofl)
I probably could if i wanted to, but should I??? ) (rhetorical question...) B-) (yeah, coming from the bedazzled chart guy.....)

[Herbert]

Do You Understand This?

Higher Probability Setups are Breakouts in the Direction of Higher Time Frame Trends

I "think" this statement is so simple in principle, it does not require understanding. And that is the problem.... (rofl)

[immy]

[center]Do You Understand This?[/center]

[center]Higher Probability Setups are Breakouts in the Direction of Higher Time Frame Trends[/center]

I "think" this statement is so simple in principle, it does not require understanding. And that is the problem.... (rofl)

Herbert...

True. I guess I understand ₩#@+ you mean.

[immy]

Another Important One....


There is a picture we trade that we call The Setup. Thats when the 3 Cardinal rules have been met. 1. Gator sleeping within Tight AIMS Boxes. 2. AIMS Wave bars close to ZL, showing no momentum, with very small bars, 3. Exit is Close, tight boxes and lines are close to entry. (the particular pattern that we trade, the picture that ticks all the boxes)

What then makes a Setup The Setup. We know trading is a "pattern recognition number game" a statistical game, if you like. So to win in this game, you need to have as many odds in your favour as possible. The more odd in our favour the higher the probability of the event that we want to occur. If the odds give you a statistical advantage you have what they call "an edge" in the market over the market. But then why, do we call our Edge, not the edge but THE Setup.

The Setup is that particular moment in the market where we have the highest number of odds in our favour. Grant put it this way the other day, "its a good setup but its position within the wave is not good". (paraphrase) I really liked this.

What makes a setup, The setup, what makes The Setup a Higher Probability Setup? That has to do with the position of a Setup, within a Wave. A wave formation within a Wave of a higher degree wave. e.g. if you see a Setup on m1 and it ticks all the boxes but its position within the wave on m5 or m15 or even H1 is either a. Within a sideways choppy market or b. within the aims boxes that appear towards the end of a wave, where AIMS Wave of higher time frame has peaked and possibility losing momentum or going into a 4th wave. Both spots share one thing, 4th waves. in the case of a. its within a no momentum, no trend situation whereas in the case of b, its at the end of a trend, already within or going into a sideways market which will eventually turn into "a." situation. The best Setups are the Setups that appear within the early part of a wave of a current, 1 or 2 time frame higher wave. So if Gator on M1 is sleeping but it has been up all day since yesterday on m15 you may be trading towards the very end of a larger degree wave. The odds of success have diminished.

It makes sense and its logical to only trade the best setups as per the criteria/concept described above.

I hope it makes sense.

If I get time I might add some pictures to further illustrate the point. It is a very important point to understand.

[immy]

Look, let me put it this way. We trade Breakouts in the Direction of HTF Trends. How can one expect a Breakout when it just broke out and recovering from a breakout to break in! so that it stops moving and may then later break out. So if its just broken out and moved nicely away from its previous range that it broke out, take pitty on it and let the poor thing rest a bit! come back later or tomorrow.... good night

[Tomi]

Look, let me put it this way. We trade Breakouts in the Direction of HTF Trends. How can one expect a Breakout when it just broke out and recovering from a breakout to break in! so that it stops moving and may then later break out. So if its just broken out and moved nicely away from its previous range that it broke out, take pitty on it and let the poor thing rest a bit! come back later or tomorrow.... good night

If I may... nice examples are found from my journal from this month.

M5 just broke the range: http://itradeaims.net/forum/viewtopic.p ... 856#p11756" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Another breakout after a moment: http://itradeaims.net/forum/viewtopic.p ... 856#p11761" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The second trade was a good one - even though the result was just over BE.

[Herbert]

Another Important One....


Grant put it this way the other day, "its a good setup but its position within the wave is not good". (paraphrase) I really liked this.

What makes a setup, The setup, what makes The Setup a Higher Probability Setup? That has to do with the position of a Setup, within a Wave. A wave formation within a Wave of a higher degree wave.

Now that is a senior data point. It is true. it simply is. Thanks Grant and thank Immy for raising it here. I can safely assimilate this into my evaluation of higher probability setups.

My current quest is to discriminate between a..... (and let me be careful how i put it, as we know by now, all correct setups are good setups, and probability x risk x reward takes care of the losers),

.......My current quest is to discriminate between a setup that will match projected target movement and those setups that don't. The above parameter is an essential part of it.... (wd)

[immy]

Herbert: Glad that you found this helpful. I've been trying to translate an "understanding" or "knowing" if you like, about filtering certain setups that I would not take even though they looked perfect. and when asked why I did not trade there, I could "vibrate" in "vocal" terms correctly in order to transfer that "knowing" or vibration to others (us lot all being vibrational beings) and then it suddenly clicked. Intuition can be articulated if oen tries you'd find, eventually, matching words and sounds that may "induct" (as in physics) the vibration of the knowing to spread to others... haha... i hope it makes sense but if it does not, its ok. Words are only "signposts" its the intention and the feeling behind those words that makes the other "know".

Tomi: Thanks for the nice examples. cheers

This morning we saw exactly what I discussed above. And I did take pictures of it so here they are. Enjoy