Dave from Sydney's Journal [Awarded Title: the Box-Trader]

[Dave]

For Darren....

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[Dave]

Bit of rent, trend was confirmed, ah well - NEXT

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[Darren]

For Darren....

Cheers Dave - I see what you were looking at now!

[Dave]

A good NFP day, not pips-wise, but in other ways, some good chat.... (pics at the end to illustrate)

Immy: EJ m15 breakout Free trade already 4:41 PM
Dave: Hmmmmm, that's a shame 4:42 PM
Dave: and GM to all 4:42 PM
Immy: well its just you and I 4:42 PM
Immy: GM 4:42 PM
Dave: the pleasure is mine 4:43 PM
Dave: how's the trip? 4:43 PM
Immy: good good. thank you. 4:43 PM
Dave: and i trust youre long at least ej 4:43 PM
Immy: m15 breakout working nicely 4:44 PM
Dave: yeah very nice 4:44 PM
Dave: that first fractal of price leaving the alli mouth on M5 and above is just such a good setup 4:44 PM
Dave: particularly at LO 4:44 PM
Dave: breaking out of the overnight range 4:44 PM
Immy: I mean the m5 breakout at FO would have been even better. but I was not sure about then. 4:45 PM
Immy: well tbh, i'm never sure about anything. 4:45 PM
Dave: dont need to ba haha 4:46 PM
Dave: well, given this impulse and LO in 13 mins Im going to make a cup of tea and be back and see if it settles down a bit 4:47 PM
Immy: I've found a cool technique. and after months of testing I'm ready to unveil this. its just a concept. A concept that allows me to trade m5 without looking at m5. I can only check h1 charts once an hour and still catch the best m5 setups. 4:47 PM
Dave: Yeah I read your HTF post the other day with interest, really liked it, thanks for sharing 4:48 PM
Dave: unfortunately with a job and my timezone h1 is tough for me, but hopefully in the not too distant future I can get involved 4:48 PM
Immy: its Powerful. it is what I did in 2010... but was not sure how I did it. (as I always said before as well) I finally cracked it. 4:48 PM
Dave: that's excellent, well done! 4:49 PM
Dave: I look forward to the details 4:49 PM
Dave: back in 10 4:49 PM
Immy: I took trades on m1/m5 and allowed them to run all the way to h1 charts. 2-3 days.. and makret moved nicely. plus addons etc. now I have a proper methodology for it. so I feel more confident. 4:49 PM
Immy: Ucad has a nice breakout on H1 over night. hmm nice 4:51 PM
Immy: Dax still printing highs since 23rd... 4:52 PM
Immy: if you want to make quick pips and have less time to trade, M5/M1 strategy may suit you the best. if you are however a part time trader who can trade at least a session or check their charts with intervals throught the day M5/M1 strategy may suit you but you may also be able to take advantage of the m5/h1 strategy. Screen Time is almost nothing. 4:59 PM
Dave: Sounds great! 4:59 PM
Dave: Is it essentially what you detailed in the HTF thread? Finding the breakout on H1 with the H4 or D trend, and then dropping down to find the best setup from either 5/15 4:59 PM
Immy: yes Dave. 5:00 PM
Immy: I really cannot give more details, as there are none 5:00 PM
Dave: very good 5:00 PM
Dave: youre right, its simple 5:00 PM
Dave: not easy! simple.... 5:00 PM
Immy: but the concept might seem like nothing new, but there is a subtle change that can dramatically change your trading and its results. IMHO. 5:00 PM
Dave: and that's the 50% off management strategy? 5:01 PM
Immy: Dave, its not like you said above. 5:01 PM
Immy: Its this. Find a Trending market on H1 and drop to m5/m15 to find a breakout in the direction of H1. simple. just like m5 m1. but there is a correlation between h1 and m5 that fits very well. 5:02 PM
Immy: yes Dave, the 50% sell half while keep SL at -1% is the main point. 5:03 PM
Dave: so for an example, when I look at the following pairs - EU, EJ, UJ, GU, DAX - I see UJ and DAX as of interest long? 5:04 PM
Immy: 1. it allows you to give your trade room 2. it helps you eliminate the fear of trading and thus letting it run (which is the most difficult part of trading) becomes a tad easier. at least your mind is not in the "protection" mode. you know you cannot lose. 5:04 PM
Immy: exactly. UJ was most definitely interesting. however did not work out well. there was interest in EJ as well, as the breakout range was tight. 5:05 PM
Immy: the breakout was timed with H1 and M15 having same levels. the whole point is to be able to convert your trade into a Free Trade ASAP. bringing SL to BE isoften hit beause market usually retests the breakout levels. 5:06 PM
Dave: absolutely, very often restests at least the top of the range 5:06 PM
Dave: So with respect to UJ - H1 SL about 16 pips, has only shown +8 as a max, so still full position live and SL still at max loss, under H1 AIMS 5:07 PM
Immy: there is a HUGE psychological advantage. The moment fear factor is eliminated or reduced. your mind becomes more objective. 5:07 PM
Dave: agree 5:08 PM
Immy: Dave. UJ you'd take on m5 or m15. my position now is FT and about to be close i guess. 5:08 PM
Immy: if you take the break of H1 with SL on other side of H1. at this situation, you're trading H1 with entries on H1. 5:09 PM
Dave: ah ok I see 5:10 PM
Dave: confirmed trend and breakout on H1, then go with it but still use m5/m15 levels 5:10 PM
Darren: Immy - That EJ trade you took on the M15, I take it the stop is still at the original point after taking 50% off? 5:10 PM
Immy: so far it is. 5:10 PM
Darren: So you wait for the peak of AO before moving it then? 5:11 PM
Dave: and what is your trailing mechanism, m15 until it can be converted into h1? 5:11 PM
Immy: I will give it a chance to pull bak once and see how much it pulls back, and if it resumes I'll see what to do with it later. 5:11 PM
Darren: ok 5:11 PM
Immy: mine is different per trade ... so everyone will have to find what they are comfortable with. 5:11 PM
Darren: btw - just testing my new dongle in the school playground! 5:12 PM
Immy: e.g. I took a long on EU m5, and held it until YD. I'm sure not many can do that. 5:12 PM
tg joined the Pipping Room and says Hello! 5:12 PM
Immy: sorry on the 24th. 5:12 PM
Darren: Well done Immy. 5:12 PM
Immy: please don't say that to me Darren, it slightly annoys me. there is no well done here mate. its just trades. and really does not matter. but thank you. 5:13 PM
Darren: I think if you know the trade is a profitable trade and will be trailed to a degree it is easier to hold on to. 5:13 PM
Darren: Understood Immy! 5:14 PM
Darren: I have actually had more profitable trades on the 5 min chart than the 1 min, so I may concentrate more on them. 5:14 PM
Immy: I say that, because people often think, i share results because i am the "system seller" "owner" so I have to show it. its not like that. I've been sharing my stuff stince 2009, and it was the constant requests of frirends and others that got me to start my blog and then people wanted my indicators so I got fed up and put a price on it, and then I raised the price, adn the moment I raised the price they started selling like hot cakes... and from there.... we are here now.. so I am just like you. i have been in the forums, leanred from gurus. got slammed , etc etc. 5:15 PM
Immy: back to trading. 5:16 PM
Darren: 5:16 PM
Immy: yes, a robust trailing mechanism is a must. to start with. trailing H1 levels is ideal if you would like to take advantage of one full H1 swing. 5:17 PM
Immy: I can tell you from experience. that H1 W3's are around 2-3 days long. followed by 1-2 days wave 4s and 1-2 days wave 5. and then a longer chop chop. 5:17 PM
Immy: so if you want to take a trade with 15pip SL and grab 200 pips 2 days later. be my guest. 5:18 PM
Darren: I wouldn't mind! 5:18 PM
Dave: the key for me (and it's finally sinking in cause apparently Im a dummy and it takes a while to grasp simple concepts ) is that the W3 on M1, the 20-30+ pips trades, are M1 entries that coincide with the first fractal break away from the mouth on the HTF charts, e.g. m5 on EJ @ 7:10 candle (small rent at worst), 7:25 (small rent at worst), 7:35, boom. And if these are within the H1 breaks then that sounds even better! eu @ 7 and 7:35 are also examples of this 5:19 PM
Immy: are those GMT times? 5:23 PM
Dave: essentially it is just catching the break from the overnight flatline 5:23 PM
Dave: UK, sorry 5:23 PM
Dave: my times are all over the place!! 5:23 PM
Immy: GMT+3 would be... pepper and alpari both same 5:24 PM
Darren: bbl 5:24 PM
Immy: ok Darren. 5:24 PM
Dave: so they're GMT+1 5:25 PM
Immy: gothcha 5:25 PM
Immy: FO 5:26 PM
Dave: yep 5:26 PM
Immy: ok here is the thing. there should be NO rent there. 5:26 PM
Immy: using M5/M1 technqiue, you take the break of M5. and there is no convincing price movement to cause me to exit. 5:26 PM
Dave: because m5 alli was not yet open? 5:26 PM
Dave: you on ej or eu 5:27 PM
Dave: ? 5:27 PM
Immy: 5pips up adn own is nothing. yes EJ. 5:27 PM
Dave: agree, unless one was to close on the red dot 5:27 PM
Immy: yes, not only becaus Ali was not open, the range was too too tight on m5. 5:27 PM
Immy: I don't trade inside tight m5 boxes. never 5:27 PM
Immy: 8pip M5 box and I will go inside that box. no way mate 5:28 PM
Dave: nah no way, but the break at XX:10 was a break outside 5:28 PM
Immy: if I have a 10 pip H1 box, there is no need to trade m5. that would just suit me. but that does not happen often. 5:28 PM
Dave: as was the one at XX:25 5:28 PM
Immy: but there is only 1 entry and that is 9,10 5:29 PM
Immy: .25 and the later is the continuation. 5:29 PM
Immy: a lovely m5 S2 was forming 5:30 PM
Dave: yeah you're right actually, the M1 blue dot only coincided with the the final break, before then they were green dots 5:30 PM
Immy: and I was watching all that drama, and though, I'll take the m15 break as by then the drama will be over. 5:30 PM
Immy: now here is a Trick for the H1 masters. 5:31 PM
Immy: look for H1 candles with range less than 20. drop to m5 when you see small h1 candle. you will see a setup formed or forming 80% of the time. 5:32 PM
Immy: total screen time 8 minutes per day. 5:32 PM
Dave: Immy: look for H1 candles with range less than 20. drop to m5 when you see small h1 candle. you will see a setup formed or forming 80% of the time. 5:32 PM
Dave: Just added that to my H1 notes 5:32 PM
Dave: and I really need to work out a way to be home from work 1 hr earlier!!!!!! 5:33 PM
Immy: u mean to be here by FO? 5:34 PM
Immy: or LO? 5:34 PM
Dave: FO preferably, but LO at least, I'm usually 20 mins late 5:34 PM
Dave: p.s. UJ just a valid buy for "first fractal M5 break" SL could have been 4 pips on M1, and a nice Be pinbar too! 5:35 PM
Dave: be = bearish 5:35 PM
Dave: trailing candles, 1% return 5:36 PM
Immy: look at UJ h1. trend is confirmed. it wasnts t obreakout. you have two options. eitehr take the breakout of H1 levels or SINCE you see very small tight H1 candles, those candles are actually beautiful m5 setups.... they should form beautiful M5 S1 breakou setups. 5:36 PM
Immy: Dave, this strategy requires you to let it run at least throughout one session if not till end of NY. 5:37 PM
Dave: ok 5:37 PM
Immy: don't think targets. just think let it run... allow it to enrich you rather u put stops on what the makets wants to give you. we need to put stops on what the market wants to take from us... 5:37 PM
Dave: yeh ok 5:38 PM
Immy: the people who trade m1 on more than 1 pair has 5% chances of success. IMHO> 5:38 PM
Immy: no one listens to me. 5:38 PM
Dave: so are you long uj now? 9ish initial pip stop, 50% off and free trade happening? 5:40 PM
Dave: or didnt go back in? 5:40 PM
Immy: my 1:1 was hit about more than an hour ago. 5:40 PM
Dave: ah yeh, so still in 5:40 PM
Immy: i never was out of it mate. 5:40 PM
Dave: so SL <5 pips then? nice 5:41 PM
Immy: long from 03 sl below aims level 6 pips. 5:41 PM
Dave: yep 5:41 PM
Immy: fo first two cnadles free trade. nothing to wory about look away, play with Adam, 5:41 PM
Dave: hows the trade manager going? 5:42 PM
Immy: so that means, my MM is done on 6 pips. now if it does 60 pips I will be up 5.5% 5:42 PM
Immy: well all i need it to do is sell half while I'm not looking thats it. 5:43 PM
Immy: i need to add trail aims boxes option. 5:44 PM
Immy: did you see what Darren said, i had more success on m5, so i'm going to look in to it. thats NOT what the strategy is about. its NOT m5. 5:45 PM
Immy: its H1. 5:45 PM
Dave: and the key is finding PA to give a small SL on H1 entries 5:45 PM
Dave: PA = M5/15 setups 5:45 PM
Immy: Thats it dave. you got it. 5:45 PM
Dave: tight, sideways channels 5:45 PM
Dave: as you said earlier, same as M1/M5, but magnified 5:46 PM
Immy: You want M5 level RISK with H1 Level Reward. meaning 1:10. is a norm. 5:46 PM
Dave: find the HTF trend, find the LTF entry with the trend 5:46 PM
Immy: there are 2 huge psychological advantages. and any mental advantage means a HUGE proportion. as entry exit = only 10% of trading. the rest is all MM and MIND. 5:47 PM
Dave: all sounds excellent 5:48 PM
Immy: exactly. or find a breakout within breakout. the smaller the candle. the higher the lot size. the bigger the reward. in all cases you lose only 1% but if you make 100 pips on a 5pip initial SL. you've done 10% in one day. 5:48 PM
Dave: and that is the absolute key, nice 5:48 PM
Immy: 1 being the Freeing your mind become of 1:1 FT. 2. screen time only 10 min or 2 min per hr. 5:48 PM
Dave: I think thats my next change, I always do 10 pips = 1%, for ease of calculation, I'm going to change that as of this very instant, I'll set up an excel calculator now 5:49 PM
sam joined the Pipping Room and says Hello! 5:49 PM
Immy: EJ is a beauty. 5:50 PM
Dave: an old fashioned chestnut 5:51 PM
sam: hi all 5:52 PM
Immy: hi Sam 5:52 PM
Dave: hey Sam 5:52 PM
sam: hi dave 5:53 PM
sam: i am long UJ. m15 has nice setup 5:54 PM
Immy: The Universe is Mostly Empty. there is a secret message. 5:54 PM
Immy: Sam, that was a good setup. in line with trend. perfecto. I'm with you. 5:54 PM
Dave: An yobjections to me posting this in my journal Immy? for future reference 5:55 PM
Dave: this chat 5:55 PM
Immy: once you're in a trade Dave, using this technique, put the EA on, it will sell half and then come back in 2-3 hours. 5:55 PM
sam: to be honest i was with UJ m15 since morning on dot candle but for some reason it didn't break the range during whole asian session 5:55 PM
Immy: no man. 5:55 PM
sam: finally nice setup formed with arrow and my low risk trade was already there 5:55 PM
Dave: I have two last questions about this strategy.... 5:56 PM
Immy: Patience is a Virtue .. we have to wait for perfect setups even if it takes a whole week or two. 5:56 PM
Immy: fire away mate.. 5:56 PM
Dave: 1) again UJ can be the example, we see decreasing momentum on H1 AO, we see alligator converging, but you're still keen to go long.... what is your filter for when this trend may be over, or because it's an M5/15 setup who cares, relative risk is low? 5:58 PM
Immy: RISK LOW is the key. well actually any pip level you may risk 1% but their is an edge. which is... 5:59 PM
Dave: and obviously from 1 look at H1 no one in their right mind wouldnt agree the trend is upp 5:59 PM
Dave: low pips = 1% 5:59 PM
Immy: if you trade a tight range. ther probability of FTrade is higher if your SL was 5 pips as compared to 20 pips. 5:59 PM
Dave: no good saying "it's with H1 and it's 1%" when in fact it's 30 pips 5:59 PM
Dave: unless the ADR is 400 of course 6:00 PM
Immy: if your SL is based on 20 pips the probability "repeat THE PROBABILITY" of price moving 20% is much much lower than Price moving 10pips. Studies have been done, not just ordinary, MIT has done extensive statistical analysis on data more than 200 years old. so I don't say it because I just had a passing whim. 6:01 PM
Immy: 20%=20pip. 6:01 PM
Immy: and their have been other geek quants who's spent good money on creating statisical data, i happen to know a few of them. 6:02 PM
Immy: e.g. one spent around 10K just to verify the validity of this hiring Class 1 Quants. and they confirmed profit factor of 1.35. that is a huge huge advantage. 6:03 PM
Immy: I have myself spent the last 2 years doing that. it was so dear to me, I did not want to share it , until last week. 6:04 PM
Dave: agree, a huge advantage 6:04 PM
Darren: Hi guys again. 6:05 PM
Dave: I'm impressed man, AIMS is becoming (or has become) so much more than an entry system 6:05 PM
Dave: haha, blue dot/red dot my ass 6:05 PM
Immy: come on dave, you knew that long time ago. Dots were just to lure you in 6:06 PM
Immy: btw, don't forget, that while we time low risk entries on m5/m15 in the direction of H1, we may also take Setup 1 on H1. and no u don't need dots. u need an EYE. 6:07 PM
Immy: keep this in mind. when markets move too fast, the lower the time frame better you will see the wave. 6:08 PM
Immy: and vice versa. 6:08 PM
Immy: and thats it for me.

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[Dave]

When you have a chance, Immy, I'd like to know how your new trade management approach affects your adding to short term entries. Do you even take those M1/M5 entries anymore? Do you still add to them? Do you believe that the two different money management approaches could exist in tandem. e.g divide initial position into thirds, representing two trades. The first 2/3 would be close at 50% and let run approach. The final 1/3 may be added to with an equally sized positon as per add on rules and treated with the previous Trailing CTF exit mechanism. This would in affect mean you're taking the low risk entries with two separate trade management approaches, and in the event of a real bumper trending runner, an exceptional return. In the event of a loser it could be 1.33% if the position for 50% off didn't get to intial TP and add on for other system was triggered and then they were all stopped out. Anyone got any ideas?
Thanks, Dave

[immy]

When you have a chance, Immy, I'd like to know how your new trade management approach affects your adding to short term entries. Do you even take those M1/M5 entries anymore? Do you still add to them? Do you believe that the two different money management approaches could exist in tandem. e.g divide initial position into thirds, representing two trades. The first 2/3 would be close at 50% and let run approach. The final 1/3 may be added to with an equally sized positon as per add on rules and treated with the previous Trailing CTF exit mechanism. This would in affect mean you're taking the low risk entries with two separate trade management approaches, and in the event of a real bumper trending runner, an exceptional return. In the event of a loser it could be 1.33% if the position for 50% off didn't get to intial TP and add on for other system was triggered and then they were all stopped out. Anyone got any ideas?
Thanks, Dave

Dave!

Interesting Idea, but if we like this we will have to spend some money, get data and run it over a decade or three of data to find out if it will work in the long term. Are you ready?

The add on's if made will have the same criteria. When we add on, we will sell half at 1:1 effectively converting the add on into a free trade asap. now we have two free trades.

The problem most people face is they do not know how to let it run. Why? because FEAR of trading is mighty force. We can however, tame its force down a bit by converting our positions into a FREE TRADE as soon as possible. And the probability (we have done analysis on this as well) of market moving 10pips in one direction is A LOT higher than 20 pips. Based on this, if you trade off a range that is 10 pips from top to bottom means that there is higher probability that you may turn your trade into a "risk free trade" sooner than when you require a 20 or 30 pips to sell half. the longer you stay in the FEAR state the higher the probability of making mistakes. The sooner you get into the "objective" state of mind, where you don't care about win or loss because you have a free trade, the more chances your mind will allow you to "perceive" what is in front of you (you may call it reality or the truth if you like) and not block important information that may be in favour of allowing you to remain in the trade and let it run. But if your mind perceives the act of staying in a trade as a threat then it will constantly be looking for ways to get out of risky situation. Survival is its Middle Name.

When you "perceive" threat your mind may block information that may lead you to prolong the duration of risky situation. It will present information in a way that is hard for you to reject and you may be motivated to take steps to get you out of the "risky" situation that you are in. The risk is 1. losing a trade , losing full 1%, 2. Losing parts of your profits 3. giving back profits when you can just grab it right now. What if's of several kinds will be your dinner and deserts. but as soon your mind "perceives" no risk situation you are neutral and you start seeing the picture in 3D without information getting blocked or distorted. The mind is a funny thing. WE must use OUR MIND correctly.

The whole object of this MM is "Care Free State of Mind".

A good some of money was spent, equal to that of 3 months salary of a normal full time job, in order to hire a couple of "Quants" who used a complex and robust statistical model to analysis the data of the over past 30 years to check the validity of the above MM. As I mentioned before, if you can run another test, and spend another sum, you may well do that and see if the method you have in mind is viable. Meanwhile i think, we should stick to this MM. There are many advantages as explained in my previous posts about this MM approach. Specially the Mind bit. The profit fact for the last 30 years of data over several different markets is over 1.30 which might attractive, if you ask me.

I never liked scaling out, but I was looking for something that helps us all, get into that all important care free state of mind. And this approach is an "integrated" solution with multiple advantages. With the adding on approach, as Williams, we have to start with 1 entry and be successful and then start adding on and then as a final step start using reverse pyramiding, i have not so far seen anyone go past Step 1 let alone step 2 and 3. (mainly because I now find that adding on on very low time frame is making something difficult turn in to a lot more difficult task) And thus the reason for finding a different approach. Having said that, if one has the mental strength to keep adding on at least once using my previous technique the possibility of doubling account per month is 95% but 95% of people are not mentally strong enough.

I hope this helps.

[Dave]

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[Dave]

Update....

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[Dave]

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[Dave]

Hi everyone,

I am writing this post (albeit quickly - rugby training this evening) in the hope that it might encourage some debate and conversation. So here goes....

Having re-read NTD recently (which we all know AIMS is founded on) and with some increased chart time, I started to think about exactly what the AIMS indicators are trying to show us, particularly the eWave indicator, with respect to the foundations of trading chaos. So often we talk about catching a fresh cross of ZL, but only when there hasn't been a significant peak in the opposite direction, in an attempt to catch a new a fresh wave. But what is eWave really telling us. Well it's a convergence/divergence indicator using a fast and slow MA. So when the market moves the fast MA responds first and this results in divergence or convergence which results in crosses of ZL etc. etc. So the waves of price action cannot be counted from crosses of ZL, but must be from peak to peak, from a low at a red peak to a high of a green peak could be considered as a wave, no matter how big or small. So anyway, what this means is that the momentum of the new wave starts a long time before the cross of ZL, so there are trading opportunities prior to the cross that are with the new momentum.

What initiated this line of thought was BW talking about two different entry mechanisms, and that the cross of ZL entry mechanism should only ever follow after the break of the first fractal outside the alligator's mouth. So often then I noticed that the break of the first fractal outside the mouth (as I perceived it) was always after the cross, so the add-on at the cross seemed to be an impossibility. But with the consideration that the wave begins from the peak and not at the cross this means the first fractal break of the new wave comes into play a little earlier. For the sake of the alligator's mouth and whether or not the fractal is considered to be outside the mouth, the red line should be referred to.

So, now we know that a wave doesn't start at the cross and that the fractal can be considered outside if it's one side or the other of the red line (we never feed the alligator - so obviously for a buy the fractal must be above the red line), let's look at couple pics I just snapped from the M1 charts....

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We can add to our knowledge of eWaves and fractal geometry then with an understanding that smaller AIMS boxes present a greater opportunity for a higher reward trade. We know how an AIMS level is formed, so we can use a bit of PA (BDC's, low/high must be lower/higher than proceeding two bars etc.) to suggest where the next AIMS level would form should the fractal outside the mouth be broken and our order triggered. The key to these entries is that PRICE CROSSES OVER THE ALLIGATOR (RED) AND THE ENTRY IS ON THE FIRST FRACTAL BREAK TO THE OTHER SIDE.... (see EU M1 now, it's 0950 UK time). Crosses over, fractal forms, comes back with small AIMS box and away it goes.

So I guess what I'm saying/suggesting/hoping to discuss, are entries that correspond with the above rules and pictures. I'd love to hear everyone's opinions because I consider this to be the essence of the NTD system, and that with some minor AIMS related tweaks or suggestions, this could be a bit of an eye opening revelation for me! Training time now, have to run, more to come pending replies

Thanks, Dave

Here's that pic from the recent buy setup....

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