Fran's GAZETY

[francisrama]

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[immy]

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Fran

This my friend was FOMC statement. I have this website , one of the best there is, set to appear as defualt in my Chrome browser. http://www.ForexFactory.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; its best to be registered so you can adjust time and then it displays news calendar in your local time. Forex trading and such free news services are a luxury that used to cost hundreds of dollars if not thousands a few years back. We must know what news are ahead of us for the day and week. All RED NEWS will create spikes like these.

cheers

[francisrama]

July 31, 2013 10:30pm CET

I stumbled into this one and have questions = Immy, experts, could yo please comment?

- We are in a saddle point
- We had fractal hi and fractal lo
- Price broke both fractal hi and fractal hi

---> - Is this something that could happen "normally"?
- Is this some kind of broker manipulation?
- Any other comment?

eurusd-h1.png

Thank you/KR

[immy]

July 31, 2013 10:30pm CET

I stumbled into this one and have questions = Immy, experts, could yo please comment?

- We are in a saddle point
- We had fractal hi and fractal lo
- Price broke both fractal hi and fractal hi

---> - Is this something that could happen "normally"?
- Is this some kind of broker manipulation?
- Any other comment?

eurusd-h1.png

Thank you/KR

Broker Manipulation.... lets forget about that for forex. First they don't do it, the good ones, popular ones dont do it, because there are hundreds of other brokers and you can compare their "quoted prices" during that period and raise it with them, they will usually come up with some reasonable explanation one being, "the underlying market prices fluctuated exactly as our quoted prices" meaning the whole market did this. There is a broker feed that is made up of the "liquidity providers" their banks and the banks quote prices to your brokers based on what the prices are going "around the globe" at that time. So e.g. normal brokers may be getting feed , live feed from lets say 10 different banks and they might quote slightly up and down, your broker may quote you price, of course adding their monster spread, taking the average of the 10 prices. Now if they want to manipulate it, they can misquote prices.. but they cannot get away with that. The price manipulation that you are talking about, that "term" relates to "exchange based commodities/stocks" where the "guys on the floor" manipulate price but they don't manipulate by "fakingit" they actually buy and sell so there is nothing wrong with it. If one has A LOT of money to buy a commodity or stock to move its price up so that they can short it later... well that's part of the game, it cannot be illegal. they have the right to buy or sell at whatever time they want. Now, based on that example if one was to try to take the price of EUR/USD up a bit,,, ahem, that would require a very big player and there are only 1 kind of players who has that sort of Dosh The State Banks. They do this shit from time to time but its mostly obvious... just watch out Swissy and the yens from time to time.... I hope it makes sense... btw. moving a 4trillion dollar daily market at will... not easy...

[Tomi]

Broker Manipulation.... lets forget about that for forex. First they don't do it, the good ones, popular ones dont do it, because there are hundreds of other brokers and you can compare their "quoted prices" during that period and raise it with them, they will usually come up with some reasonable explanation one being, "the underlying market prices fluctuated exactly as our quoted prices" meaning the whole market did this. There is a broker feed that is made up of the "liquidity providers" their banks and the banks quote prices to your brokers based on what the prices are going "around the globe" at that time. So e.g. normal brokers may be getting feed , live feed from lets say 10 different banks and they might quote slightly up and down, your broker may quote you price, of course adding their monster spread, taking the average of the 10 prices. Now if they want to manipulate it, they can misquote prices.. but they cannot get away with that. The price manipulation that you are talking about, that "term" relates to "exchange based commodities/stocks" where the "guys on the floor" manipulate price but they don't manipulate by "fakingit" they actually buy and sell so there is nothing wrong with it. If one has A LOT of money to buy a commodity or stock to move its price up so that they can short it later... well that's part of the game, it cannot be illegal. they have the right to buy or sell at whatever time they want. Now, based on that example if one was to try to take the price of EUR/USD up a bit,,, ahem, that would require a very big player and there are only 1 kind of players who has that sort of Dosh The State Banks. They do this shit from time to time but its mostly obvious... just watch out Swissy and the yens from time to time.... I hope it makes sense... btw. moving a 4trillion dollar daily market at will... not easy...

Agreed with Immy, but just wanted to add couple of examples as it took a long time for me to forget the manipulation issue. If you think of it, it will eventually come to the fact of buyers and sellers - the lack of those for small period of time or confusion of the direction where market will start to move.

I have seen many times on Frankfurt open that market break upper or lower AIMS level nicely and after that the market will just start to fly to the opposite direction. It does that whether I have orders in place or not - in that sense it's not a broker manipulation. I will explain it just by the existence of buyers and sellers. Or more of a confusion of them. Maybe two big players just got the morning coffee, one wanted to sell and one wanted to buy. One of those won and market started to move some direction. This example was on M1 as that's my timeframe but due to consecutive red flagged news this could easily occur in H1 also.

For dealing desk brokers: yesterday was a good example when my dealing desk broker gave me a restriction of 300 pips requirement for SL for the time when FOMC news was. I wouldn't dare to trade when initial SL is 300 pips away (rofl) But that broker defines the rules and it's ok. If I don't like it I have to chance the broker. The broker is not making anything illegal there. They know that during the FOMC statement buyers and sellers might disappear for small period of time and they make a requirement of 300 pips SL to protect their position/business. If you are in a trade in this point, anything could happen and you can't trust to SL level. I wouldn't blame the broker either (even though it would be tempting) if getting stopped out with a disastrous SL price.

For ECN brokers: they don't have any restrictions - well for me it's always minimum of 1 pip requirement between price and SL. But for them the problem will be the slippage. You could argue if it's manipulation but in the end it's just a matter of lack of buyers or sellers in certain time. ECN broker is connected to interbank market and you are using almost straight quotes. There will be delays depending of physical location of broker servers and interbank servers. Maybe some other aspects also. Even with ECN broker if buyers and sellers are disappearing for a fraction of second you will get weird quotes but that's just the matter of how markets work.

Just opinions......no facts included Also no animals or brokers were harmed during writing of this (rofl)

[francisrama]

waouh Thx very much Immy and Tomi...now I understand and will pay LOTS OF ATTENTION to these things

Special thx Immy for the hints on news & announcement. I'l definitely register for sure!!!

KR

[francisrama]

Aug 1st, 2013

Morning trade
- BUY UJ (chart below)
- Will check every hour...

Comments:
- Got a priceless hint on RED NEWS / price "double spikes"...

Back on NY open...

usdjpy-h1.png

KR

[Tomi]

waouh Thx very much Immy and Tomi...now I understand and will pay LOTS OF ATTENTION to these things

Special thx Immy for the hints on news & announcement. I'l definitely register for sure!!!

KR

One way of getting notified about the news is to use the SW that Richard pointed out some time ago:
http://itradeaims.net/forum/viewtopic.p ... 971#p10971" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Works out like a charm!

PS. Seems that there is a newer version along with the old version. I don't have experience of this newer version.

[francisrama]

waouh thx very much Tomi; just installed it and PERFECT!!! Thx once more for the hint!!!

KR

[francisrama]

Aug 1st, 2013

Afternoon trade

- did not take any new trade
- just followed up aggressively on UJ (chart below)

Comments

- there were lots of movements this afternoon
- just impossible to follow them all
- I decided to focus on MY choice UJ...and I have NO REGRET!!!! = don't try to catch too many rabbits...)))
- Stop now as need to be fresh for NFP...
- I DO DO DO DO LOVE TRADING...THX VERY VERY MUCH AIMS TEAM!!!!!!

usdjpy-h1.png

KR