Moty`s Journal [Awarded Title: Samurai Sword Fruit Chopper]

[Darren]

Brilliant stats - well done again!

[immy]

Hi Moty

Win ratio is really not necessary. People around the world, thinking in non-trading way, ask about "success rate". They think that if they won more than they lost (in terms of how many trades you won vs lost) they will make money. But the reality of the trading worlds remains hidden from them although its staring at all of us right in the eye. Its not about how many trades you win within a given set of trades. It is a fact that very few traders are able to maintain above 50% success rate. Bill Williams (if you believe he's a genuine trader) said in his interview with Futures and Commodities Magazine (The top trading mags in the world) that most of the successful traders that he knew had far less than 20% success rate. No matter how many times you tell that to new traders or yourself as a new trader you mind will not accept it. But the fact remains, its about how big are your winners compared to your losers. hence the cleche' "let the winners run and cut the losers short"

If you ever want to know the success of a system, asking win ratio is not the correct question or lets say it gives you in-complete informtion. What you ought to ask is, what is the R:R ratio. (Risk : Reward Ratio) because both these stats are inter dependant (how many times you win and when you win how big are the winners ona average proportionally to average losers) If a trader shows 80% success rate, you really want to know how big are the losers (average ones) to his winners. Most EA's rely on very big stop losses and thats why they fail.

When you start adding on, the success rate thing goes out of the window completely. Then you have to look at stats differently. Because then you may have a series of trades which should be considered as one trade but within it you will have winners and losers. That why we call it a "trading campaign" E.g. you might have a winning campaign with 5 trades, out of 5 you might have 2 losers and 3 winners but the 3 winners will be the ones that you took earlier during the wave and the 2 losers must be taken towards the end of the wave. blah blah...

What i'm saying is, Well done Moty and you've proven that AIMS Stress Free Trading, is a great system, if followed properly, if you put your mind to it, any one can learn to trade it and apply the simple rule correctly but ITS ALL IN THE MIND. It is US, ourselves, who fail the system because we don't follow it. It is us, that stand in our own way, to success. How to remove the I?

[moty]

This week, I suffered from some kinds of hassles that bothered me to trade during parts of the days.
Only 5 trades, 2W, 3L. and BE in total/

[immy]

Moty, it happens. Never mind NEXT Week will be bumper

[moty]

I do not know how I managed to do it, but this week I missed all the big moves, one after the other. So no wonder I finished the week with a loss.
Total 13 trades, 4W (30%), 9L (70%).
Total loss= 1.7%

[immy]

and yet you only have 1.3% loss. I love it.

[moty]

Weekly Summary:

11 1trades this week. 3W(27%), 8L(73%).

total win= 1.8%

[immy]

I want to see your 5 rents you gathered today. there is a lesson to be learnt there... i think... only if you don't mind! cheers

[moty]

Not only today, the last 3 days.

[immy]

Aha 5 in 3 days. The last 3 days were just no good ..... let the fun begin on Monday... this week was wasted by scots and fomc