Kyle's Journal Mk2

[Kyle]

First day of the new month. Daylight Savings approaches as the days get longer down under

Mixed feelings with the trading today. Only NY session again. Felt great getting 5 short signals in a row, and expecting price to go lower, but held back on each due to S/L being more than 15 pips. All good decisions, however, I got a Pink Dot (S2 Short) and almost immediately dismissed it. My reasons behind it was that the m5 Alli was actually just open to the upside when the alert came up, and then reinforced my judgement (sort of) when the next AIMS level was also too high ...... BUT ...... the AIMS level readjusted again to just 4.4 pips and I had a breakout to the lower side. Not long after that, I realised the mistake. Immy said in the chat room a few weeks ago that the signal is an alert to say "Hey, a trade may be coming" but it was NOT a definitive yes/no at that stage. The decision as such is to be made either by cancellation wit black dot, or S1 AIMS too high, or S2 AIMS too high AT THE BREAKOUT.
That trade would have been a huge one for both my account and confidence. It ended up running 53 pips to that initial stop of 7.4, and there was an addon of 45 pips to 14.6 S/L. The singular trade would have been a 7.16:1 Return to Risk, and the addon another 3.1:1, giving a possible return of 10.26% to an initial 1% risk!!!

There is a silver lining though. That trade really hurt for a while. That will never go, but it is what you learn from it which is important. I have learned the above explanation and why I should have taken it, so I can take that lesson into the future with me and become a better trader. Let's see this fairly soon as a trade that I have taken.

After that missed effort, there were four more alerts, 3 cancelled due to AIMS level, and the other Pink one cancelled on black dot at the next candle.

Charts below for the day.

2014-10-01_NY_Session.png

2014-10-01_NY_Session_Journal.png

[Kyle]

OK, London Session done and dusted for me. We had 6 Alerts to possible trades, with 5 of them filtered. The last one was a valid S1 setup I think. The only thing possibly against it was that m5 was fairly close, but have not really worked out what is too close yet to be honest.
I am happy I selected the trade according to the rules, and then applied the correct trade management, eventually being stopped out at -4 Pips - moved there after trade went to +5 profit.
Some others saw the two fruit candles and decided that it was best to move SL to BE which was also hit, but that sign of strength did give the right indication to protect capital.

Chart below, and will be back for NY Session.

I am calling this trade Number 1, although the first one turned a profit. I missed that opportunity yesterday, so re-set back to zero and start again towards 20.

2014-10-02_LO_Session.png

[Kyle]

And NY session done and dusted for me. Nothing to report. Watched Emporer Draghi drop the price on us without a valid entry. 15 Alerts with none being valid. You get that, and at least I was entertained and coached while I was watching the charts. The Skype room really steps up the learning process.

Overall today, I took 1 trade which was a valid trade and turned out to be a rent. No issue with that. -0.21% Rent for the day, but a good day in analysis.

Charts below

2014-10-02_NY_Session.png

2014-10-02_NY_Session_Journal.png

[nored_4x]

Hi Kyle,

thanks for your analysis of the day!
I like that style of analyze very much, it is not only the table ( there I also like the last style you start from 30 September if I remember right, but also the chart is great and can help a lot.

thanks again for your work

have a great weekend
and many green pips/ticks for You!

[Kyle]

I didn't post Fridays trading. That was due to Germany having a Bank Holiday and as such, the spread did not reduce from 8 pips. Not a tradeable day at all.

Today, I was home just in time for LO. We did have an amount of alerts, but each one was fairly easily filtered out, almost all on high AIMS levels.

Interesting that the news was so light in the London session, yet the AIMS box stayed large through most of it and was just about not tradeable. The guys in the Skype room had a S1 setup where mine was an S2 (pink dot). It was a valid S1 if it did set up that way, but my feed was a bit different, and as such, saved a -4 rent.

Charts below

2014-10-06_LO_Session.png

2014-10-06_Journal.png

[Kyle]

Ho hum. Another day without an entry. However, that can be good still. If one was not missed, then I am trading to the plan and it is just a quiet few days on DAX m1.
Must say the fruiterers are doing a wonderful job in the chat room. Congrats guys. I will be along on that journey when I am comfortable and confident enough on my S1 and S2 setups.
In the last day or so, I have started a new book to read as well. Trading Chaos by Bill Williams - as recommended by Immy. Only a few chapters in, but it is eye opening, especially the fact that many can use the exact same method, but have completely different results. All due to the person and not the method.
A big take home from it is 5 simple words to remember - "Want what the market wants"

Back to today, 9 signals all filtered by either too high AIMS or one other that didn't create a 2nd AIMS level. On to tomorrow.

2014-10-07_LO_Session.png

2014-10-07_Journal.png

[Kyle]

Relatively quiet day today. No real news to speak of, but charts took off on LO without a proper setup, then towards the end of the session, one did appear. Unluckily for me, I left the PC for tea. Lesson in that. Make sure the session is maintained for the 2hr period so you do not regret missing a trade that was obvious.
Less signals in the session today, with only 5, for of them filtered, and the 5th a nice obvious S2 that would have returned just over 1:1 reward:risk.
A bit upset at myself for that, and will start my count to 20 back to the beginning, although it was not far along anyway.
Here are the charts, along with a zoomed up look at the one I should have taken.

Session Chart

2014-10-08_LO_Session.png

Zoomed in entry

2014-10-08_de30m1_entry_1936.png

Journal

2014-10-08_Journal.png

In the next day, I will start to read up on Immy's fruits as the guys int he chat room ahve been going really well. I do feel I have a handle ont he S1 and S2 trades, but not so many during the LO session of late. I have refrained from asking questions about the fruits as I want to spend the time to understand it a bit first to avoid silly questions. They can come after I have read and digested what I need to.

Onwards to tomorrow. Let's get a few real nice setups and maybe even an addon or two in there somewhere.

:-h

[immy]

Comment: why restart the 20? carry on do 20 make analysis of 20 and see how many mistakes made and start another 20. Assuming you're referring to what I think you're doing.

[Kyle]

Back into it. A few days sick and a lot of work has kept me away a bit, but I did get to watch todays session.

8 signals from LO to LO+2hrs. As per last week though, all the AIMS levels were quite high. Even as I am writing this, I can see we have moved 209 pips today, so the extra volatility has really pushed the AIMS levels up. All the more reason to investigate Fruit entries.

Anyway, no trades taken, no PO's placed and sat on the sidelines to watch. Trade the plan. Even just one or two trades a week would be enough to make good returns. Lets look forward to tomorrow.

Charts attached

2014-10-21_LO_Session.png

2014-10-21_Journal.png

[Dave]

Hi Kyle,
I know that you know what you're doing, and that you stick to your rules without exception! But just some food for thought....
Rather than assigning a fixed value to a 'big box', I prefer to ask 'is the box visually smaller than those around it? Compared to the current market, is my stop loss close?' I know it may seem a little subjective, but when there's volume in the market and, like yesterday, 200 pip days, we need to find a way in. And almost all boxes for the whole day will be >10-15pips.