Tracker's Journal

[immy]

The morning session seems to be trading by a trader desperate to make some pips. You did not analyse the trend at all. The trend was down, yet you accepted only long signals. You missed the breakout into wave 3 down as well as breakout into wave 5 down. Fruit Strategy Clearly States that campaigns may begin in 2 ways.
1. Fruit
2. Classic Breakout. Remember we are NOT CONTRARIANS per se.

We are trend traders with a mechanism to reverse when the time is right.

We believe mostly reversals occur when there are certain conditions present in the market. One such condition is the rubber band principle, market pulls away from the gator and creates a fruit bar. Telling us that within this period of the trend things have changed. Other conditions not really important for this exercise but I'll mention anyway, have to do with your analysis based on 140 bars. The Elliott Wave analysis and the fib levels. Both of these two have to do with additional analysis and not objective entry related signals by indicators. Elliott wave analysis would help you "raise your confidence" to take signals and attach "mental" probabilities to certain situations in the market where a fruit may appear and is supported by certain patterns in the market e.g. Fruit at the peak of wave 3 and fruit at the peak of wave 4 and fruit at the peak of wave 5. or fruit at the peak of P5. It is again another complex thing to understand how to manage expectations while counting waves using the simple eWave indicator or using the logic as presented in 10s elliott wave ebook. the second bit of analysis that one can employ has to do with the same elliott wave structure but using fib retracement and fix expansion tools. We know that 8 out of 10 times, wave 4 (if it is a wave 4 wink wink) would terminate between 38 and 50 fib retracement level. so a fruit within that band would have higher probability and give your a confidence boost. We also know that 8 out of 10 times a wave may end within TZ1 and TZ2. So a reversal fruit with good angle around this band also would be higher probability. (in other words a completed Impulse wave, be it wave 3 or a wave 5 impulse wave) and then if you want to make it further complicated and take it to the next level, we may employ MTF analysis using the above tricks. But why? why make it complicated.? only if you have fun doing it. If its a hard work then you perhaps don't need to further make it hard for you.

Mechanically you've done the right things however I was not keen on going long where you went long after the strong break down because of the intensity of the trend on the way down. Was there an angle, yes there was an angle. should i have gone long, yes I should have but being in the now at that time, in synch with the market at that moment, it did not appear to be a high probable time in time-space where reversals happen. (as explained above) If you took it long , there is nothing wrong with it.

You are feeling bad not because you took the wrong trades, but because you missed the london open short and you don't see profit. You also missed the breakout into wave 5 down. So your overall balance is not down because of rent trades, its down because of NOT taking trades. Plus stay in touch with me in the skype room. You were no where to be seen today were you? #


all the best, you're doing fine don't let this day knock you out. Tomorrow is another day!

REMEMBER* DO NOT TRY TO MAKE MONEY DO NOT TRY TO MAKE PIPS JUST TRADE THE SIGNALS JUST TRADE THE PLAN

[Tracker]

Hi Immy,

thank you very much for your detailed explanation and analysis. I really appreciate the effort you put into teaching me / us, how to trade. I am always looking forward to reading your comments on my trades. You are right, that first fruit long was a "I have to take it because it's a valid signal trade", that is also connected to the "I don't want to miss out feeling" enhanced by the missed first breakout. But, as you said tomorrow is another day and I won't be knocked out by a day like that. It's part of the game. With discipline I will get back on track.
See you tomorrow on Skype.

Best regards,

Tracker

[Tomi]

Not directly related to Gregor's journal, but more just came to mind from Immy's post. My biggest loss streak is 12 trades, no add-ons there. Still that month ended in good profit. That loss streak was after one holiday and I was full of confidence and eager to make big load of pips. Market showed immediately that it doesn't work like that, haha. Few good runs will turn equity back to normal. Sorry for messing your journal, have fun!

[Tracker]

Not directly related to Gregor's journal, but more just came to mind from Immy's post. My biggest loss streak is 12 trades, no add-ons there. Still that month ended in good profit. That loss streak was after one holiday and I was full of confidence and eager to make big load of pips. Market showed immediately that it doesn't work like that, haha. Few good runs will turn equity back to normal. Sorry for messing your journal, have fun!

Not at all Tomi it always helps to get other peoples perspectives.

Cheers Tracker

[Tracker]

The morning session did get me back on track. Didn't take the short breakout again, because it was before 09:00 (have to analyze that situation further) I didn't take the first Fruit Long, but waited for the second one. Didn't want to get into the same trap as yesterday. The second one looked like a little 1-2 to me. Ok, I didn't stick to the trade for it to close on green, but after an 80 Pips move I think it is legit to take some profit.
I wanted to round off my 8th batch then and catch that little AA Fruit Long. Stop a little to close. And the SAR, stupid. Over confident after winnings from this morning. Should have just turned of the computer.
The afternoon session started for me at 14:30 with a nice short Trade that could have been a nice little winner if would have acted little faster. Trailing candles and taking the AA Fruit Long is the normal course of action here, but screwed it up. Took the breakout after the AA Fruit and trailed candles. Not happy with those two campaigns there. Unfortunately I couldn't really convince myself to try the breakout long at 15:00. One thing I am really glad of is that I resisted the temptation to try several of those Short Fruits.

Camp 159: Fruit Long
Trade 1: Fruit + 80.1 Pips
Trade 2: Add On + 84.5 Pips

Camp 160: Fruit AA Long (Stop a little to close)
Trade 1: Fruit - 7.0 Pips
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Result after the 8th batch of 20 Campaigns: + 221.8 Pips


Discipline score for batch # 8:

Entry score: 18
TM score: 13
Exit score: 14

Camp 161: SAR Short
Trade 1: Fruit - 13.6 Pips

Camp 162: Fruit Short
Trade 1: Fruit Short + 4.3 Pips
Trade 2: Add On - 1.5 Pips

Camp 163: Breakout Long after missed AA Fruit
Trade 1: Breakout + 5.3 Pips

[zlabis]

Hi Gregor,
great result today.
IMHO, positioned with 2 (or more) entries gives you good possibility to take full advantage of a move, at least with one position. I know, it's very tempting to close trades which are in good profit manually but exiting without proper signals can lead into problematic habituation doing it all the times. So if I want to protect my wins eagerly in a nice trend, the tightest stop is with trailing bars. In the above campaign, it's the second exit - that is the protective exit. The other exit is then at a strong counter-fruit, at green gator or at AIMS-level but not "somewhere". )

Just my 5 cents ;-)

Cheers
Michael

[immy]

The morning session did get me back on track. Didn't take the short breakout again, because it was before 09:00 (have to analyze that situation further) I didn't take the first Fruit Long, but waited for the second one. Didn't want to get into the same trap as yesterday. The second one looked like a little 1-2 to me. Ok, I didn't stick to the trade for it to close on green, but after an 80 Pips move I think it is legit to take some profit.
I wanted to round off my 8th batch then and catch that little AA Fruit Long. Stop a little to close. And the SAR, stupid. Over confident after winnings from this morning. Should have just turned of the computer.

Camp 159: Fruit Long
Trade 1: Fruit + 80.1 Pips
Trade 2: Add On + 84.5 Pips

Camp 160: Fruit AA Long (Stop a little to close)
Trade 1: Fruit - 7.0 Pips
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Result after the 8th batch of 20 Campaigns: + 221.8 Pips


Discipline score for batch # 8:

Entry score: 18
TM score: 13
Exit score: 14

Camp 161: SAR Short
Trade 1: Fruit - 13.6 Pips

TRACKER IS BACK ON TRACK

now watch out for the Self Destruct ok. Often traders press that button like you did in 4th watch. I congratulate you and commend you getting out of those two batches victorious. You learned more about yourself than a $1000 per hour psychologist/psychiatrist or a spiritual guru could teach you in 10 years. You are in the top .1% of trading community now. oh yes.

Result after the 1st batch of 20 Campaigns: + 73.9 Pips
Result after the 2nd batch of 20 Campaigns: + 61.2 Pips
Result after the 3rd batch of 20 Campaigns: + 108.4 Pip
Result after the 4th batch of 20 Campaigns: - 169.1 Pips
Result after the 5th batch of 20 Campaigns: - 100.0 Pips
Result after the 6th batch of 20 Campaigns: + 162.7 Pips
Result after the 7th batch of 20 Campaigns: + 26.1 Pips
Result after the 8th batch of 20 Campaigns: + 221.8 Pips

Total 384.3 pips. at 1% per 10 pips that 38.3% account growth or 19.2% at 1% risk per 20 pips. This is phenomenal. I don't think you should use 30 pips per 1% but if you did it would still more than 10% growth which AMAZING.

[kiravon]

Fantastic to see the results of your first eight batches, and now
I see the real benefit of Batches of campaigns.

Looking at your eight batches as if they were trades is seriously
encouraging! We can all easily have a few consecutive losers
which can be debilitating, but when we get to your level most
batches will have been profitable.

Its a completely different perspective!

Well done, its great to see your progress!

[immy]

Dont forget that in that -169 batch his discipline score was less than 10 out of 20.
Which proves that even not fully disciplined trader can remain profitable with this system. how cool is that?

[Tracker]

Hi Gregor,
great result today.
IMHO, positioned with 2 (or more) entries gives you good possibility to take full advantage of a move, at least with one position. I know, it's very tempting to close trades which are in good profit manually but exiting without proper signals can lead into problematic habituation doing it all the times. So if I want to protect my wins eagerly in a nice trend, the tightest stop is with trailing bars. In the above campaign, it's the second exit - that is the protective exit. The other exit is then at a strong counter-fruit, at green gator or at AIMS-level but not "somewhere". )

Just my 5 cents ;-)

Cheers
Michael

Hi Michael,

you are right of course. Closed that first position because of the push up and its almost hitting 11900, but it is not according to the rules and I clearly see the danger of doing that. Lack of discipline initiated by fear of loosing some pips and in the end I could have made more by sticking to the rules and I could have given myself full marks for the trade. I have always been fascinated how quickly the emotions change from greed to fear and fear to greed in trading, and the only way to fight that and stay calm and relaxed is to be disciplined.
Thanks for your input Michael.

Cheers, Gregor