Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Quite a good morning, really trading on momentum add ons

Screenshot_39.png

Sequence 10
C1 DS 1 -2
C2 DS 1 -12
C3 DS 1 -40
C4 DS 1 -15
C5 DS1 -6
C6 DS 1 BE
C7 DS 1 +44
C8 DS 0 -4 ( traded partly on hunch )
C9 DS 0 -22 ( traded partly on hunch )
C10 DS 1 +46
C11 DS 1 BE
C12 DS 1 +45
C13 DS 1 +18
C14 DS 1 -33
C15 DS1 +65
C16 DS 1 +10
C17 DS 1 BE
C18 DS 1 +11
C19 DS 1 -19
C20 DS 1 -5

DS = 18/20 +81pips



Sequence 11

C1 DS 1 -14
C2 DS 1 +35
C3 DS 1 +36
C4 DS 1 -10

[kiravon]

Here is the really interesting thing! During my first ten
beginning Sequences I had four losing sequences BUT

my account was well in profit 90% of the time! - in
other words I had a very minor drawdown at the end of
Sequence 3 but my account was in profit at the end of the
other nine sequences - despite numerous losses!

So truly losing has nothing to do with losing ie losing trades
do not mean your account is losing

This really demonstrates the power of T20!

If I never get any better as a trader ( I will! ) what do I
have to fear if my account is in profit 90% of the time?

and if I have nothing to fear - then how much more
relaxed and profitable will my trading be!

So it becomes a benelovent cycle!

Giving more and more confidence!

I will try to draw a graph to illustrate this wonderful
trading truth

Seq 1 +70 +70 Up
Seq 2 -35 +35 Up
Seq 3 -86 -51 Down
Seq 4 +172 +121 Up
Seq 5 +144 +265 Up
Seq 6 -102 +163 Up
Seq 7 +71 +234 Up
Seq 8 +108 +342 Up
Seq 9 -60 +282 Up
Seq 10 +81 +363 Up

= +363 pips since March 2nd

[kiravon]

Screenshot_40.png

[kiravon]

Just browsing over Gregor's (Tracker ) screenshot today
I was just blown away by the laser precision of his entry
and add on! I think this is how you trade when you're really
'in the zone'

But his comments reminded me of something really important -

Something I had forgotten to remember!

I've had periods myself when I've definitely been 'in the zone'

Last year I tripled my AIMS account in three months. I stopped
for some reason - maybe to celebrate, I can't remember why.

I did resume at some point, but I was preoccupied with other systems,
still looking for an even Holier 'Holy Grail' than AIMS! - but my AIMS results
were now rubbish, not like before so I lost interest in a system that
was so inconsistent, it had completely ' Gone off the boil'

No it hadn't!

It was me who had 'Gone off the boil!'

During those three months I was really in the zone, loosely
following S1 and S2 but the profit came when I hit momentum
and simply trailed the candles dynamically.

No add ons, I didn't even know about add ons then, no
precision - I just jumped in when I saw price gaining momentum
and breaking AIMS level - on 5M TF the big wins far more than
paid for the rents which were typically tiny because when you
have momentum you can reduce stops to just a very few pips
so RR can be phenomenally high!

But I left off and when I came back I had somehow lost the knack
I had somehow acquired.

This isn't the first time something like this happened

I was playing around with Binary Options last year. As you
probably know it can be great fun in a gambling sort of way
in fact the pay out is I believe the same as fruit machines
claim to pay back - approx 70% so RR is not exactly very
encouraging

but I devised a system, and blow me if I can remember what
the system was now, it might have been 5M price reversing
back over Donchian middlle line ( Don't try this at home it might
not have been! )

but whatever the system was I remember winning 13/13!
I completely cracked it!

But then again for some reason I wasn't trading for a week
or two..

and when I came back to my magical Holy Grail system it
completely stopped working!

I believe I lost 8/8 consecutively! that was close to the
amount of the 13 winners! so I stopped before things
got any worse - after all, another inconsistent, unreliable
system that had 'Gone off the boil'

It hadn't

Although precise statistics vary, one respected mentor
has claimed that 80% of trading success is mental, and
only 20% is down to the system but as much as 18%
of the system's success is down to money management,
leaving the actual success relevance of the actual system
strategy proper to be just 2%!

I think Immy estimates the actual system rules are accountable
for no more than 10% of trading success but we don't need
to split hairs - we get the point in either case

If we suddenly find we're not getting those great wins anymore,
its far more likely that the fault lies with us, the odds being at
least 9:1 that its NOT the system's fault!

Not many traders ever achieve notable success at trading,
but I wonder how many like me, have somehow managed
to get 'in the zone' and had some amazing profits BUT without
realizing they were 'in the zone', or even knowing that such a
mental state existed or was relevant to trading success?
I fear probably many!

So now here is a problem I have only just conclusively identified -

If you don't know you are 'in the zone' it is somewhat unlikely
that you will know that you have slipped 'out of the zone'!

so when you get back to your 'amazing' system you find it is no
longer amazing so you dispense with it

not recognizing that its you who are no longer amazing!

Much of this has been covered extensively, but the point
being, Trading in the Zone' is everything, however, there is
no 'Once saved always saved' - it requires consistency
to be maintained, - it can be lost, especially if we don't realize
how elusive it can be. We cannot take the phenomenon for
granted.

I used to think it strange that top traders would always visit
the gym, or jog or swim before trading - what earthly connection
could that have with trading? well, a rush of adrenalin I would
think, all part of the process of getting themselves prepared
mentally to trade at peak performance - they never take this
for granted!

A knack can be acquired, but to keep that knack you must -

USE IT OR LOSE IT!

[immy]

Great Post Mickey!

[kiravon]

Today has been most interesting from various perspectives

Last time I waxed lyrically with sage trading insights
was the night before my 'Black Tuesday' = -150 pips down
that day, due to utter brainless gambling and guesswork, no
rules whatsoever!

Well after my 'In the Zone' essay last night I seem to have
done something similar with -176 down on the day!

So the mind, it seems, needs to do something very daft after
doing something seemingly very wise and sensible? I will
watch this trait carefully, otherwise just stop pretending
I'm sensible!

But another major shift! Today's trading actually eclipsed 'Black
Tuesday', far worse results! but I feel absolutely no pain,
no real regret, in fact I quite enjoyed making my first Powerpoint
Slideshow.

I consider all my entries valid, my screenshot annotations
reasonably insightful

and my Exits? well three were fine but two of them.....

well I was rather lenient on the Stops, I just 'knew' that
after falling 245 pips it would have to reverse

I now am clearer that no instrument has to do anything!

I paid a -85 pip rent to have that lesson hammered home!

But a lesson learnt is not time wasted

This was NOT 'Black Thursday'

I simply got it into my head that surely Dax had to reverse up,
so allowed extra breathing space ignoring all my
exit rules!

I get two Zeros for DS.

Here's the Slideshow- http://1drv.ms/1Jhfxnp

[kiravon]

Sequence 11

C1 DS 1 -14
C2 DS 1 +35
C3 DS 1 +36
C4 DS 1 -10
C5 DS 1 -16
C6 DS 1 -7
C7 DS 0 -41
C8 DS 0 -85
C9 DS 1 -27

[wiseambitions]

"I simply got it into my head that surely Dax had to reverse up,
so allowed extra breathing space ignoring all my
exit rules!"
I have run out of fingers on which to count the number of times I have stretched the stop loss because my head tells me "surely it will come back round to profit" - since making it a new year resolution that I would never do that...... The consequence of which is that one goes into 'hoping and praying' mode, every big loss starts with a small loss, and the best thing would be to have pulled out and wait for the next setup.
Lately the market has been rather fast moving especially around opening time, SL can happen in a matter of seconds, and thereafter it becomes a dangerous time. The time when I/we are most prone to make an entry which is not quite in accordance with setup rules is fairly immediately after suffering a SL ! ! ! !

[kiravon]

Thanks Ray, Here comes the Neon!

[center]' The time when I/we are most prone to make an entry which is not quite
in accordance with setup rules is fairly immediately after suffering a SL !!!'[/center]

[zlabis]

I totally agree with Ray that he has put himself under SL-stretching ban because I think we all really should know BEFORE we enter a trade how many Pips we are willing and comfortable to risk. I think widening SL comes from a paradox pain-avoidence mechanism of our brain if we are not accepting risk truely and deeply and if we are not accepting that we CAN NOT know what happens next. Then it can happen that we want to prevent a loser by widening SL and start hoping that market will go in our favour eventually. If it doesn't, SL will get stretched even further until pain of losing money becomes bigger than pain of being wrong or hope of a return. Then we close the trade manually we feel really bad and have lost our confidence which we have tediously built up. It's pure hardwired evolutionary behaviour and neuro-chemistry but we can break it by mechanically following our plan, espacially with exits, and stick disciplined to T20 principle. That can help dramatically.

Here is my neon:

[center]PLAN THE TRADE AND TRADE THE PLAN
... and stick to it ;-)[/center]