Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

'' If I don't see volatility kicking in at open time.
my edge does not exist - M1 trading DEPENDS on volatility.

If there is no volatility there is no edge on M1. Pure and simple.''

[kiravon]

Sequence 13

C1 DS 1 +6 EU
C2 DS 1 -27 EU
C3 DS 1 +22 EU
C4 EU DS1 -2
C5 EU DS 0 BE, -25 ( I never had a Stop for the add on! DS ZERO! )
C6 DAX DS 1 +31
C7 DAX DS 1 +17
C8 DAX DS 1 -13
C9 DAX DS 1 -10
C10 DAX DS 1 +46 +47 -22 = +71

Today

C11 DS 1 -12
C12 DS 1 -6
C13 DS 1 -20
C14 DS 1 -15
C15 DS 1 -22
C16 DS 1 +9
well thats probably enough rent for one day

[kiravon]

'' My performance seems to go in waves too '' - Tracker

Gregor ( Tracker ) has either knowingly or unknowingly hit on such an important
phenomenon

Price progresses up nicely but then retraces back down again, or to put it
simply, two steps forward and one step backward ( in trading terms we would
call that a 50% Fib retracement.

Price may keep going up for months but never in a straight line, rather zigs and
zags, periods of gloriously smooth trends followed by periods of erratic sideways
ranging where the market seems to be acting in an emotional way, not really
knowing if it is coming or going

Our task is to achieve consistency in an inconsistent world. Nothing is stable
or constant, at least not for very long

One of my favourite speakers, Dr John DeMartini, considered a genius by many,
including myself, has remarkable insight on both scientific and behavioural
matters and has written and read literally thousands of papers and books. I have
listened to him live in seminar many times and he is probably the one speaker I
could listen to all night due to the amazing insights he keeps expounding
( some of you may know him from 'The Secret' movie )

and one of them is exactly as Gregor suggests....

John frankly tells the audience -' you have a really great day? when everything went
right? you were feeling on top of the world? then you wonder why you feel down
the next day, even a bit depressed or stressed?'

''Just get over it - its universal law!''

When you thoroughly research anything in creation you always note there is
polarization, everything throughout the entire universe is in a constant state
of flux right down to the subatomic level where things oscillate ( I think )

and humans manifest this same tendency to polarize in their emotions, to have 'ups
and downs', of course extreme cases may need therapy or medication but most
of us are like this to a certain extent. Moods and emotions tend to fluctuate from
day to day, from month to month, and can you ever remember having a 'very good
year? '

so its true on all time frames!

So our whole life is governed by Elliott Waves

Some days we really have a bad ( wave 4 ) hair day!

As Tracker says ' My performance seems to go in waves too'

This is completely factual. Some of the following may be hard to accept,
I merely relate my own observations -

I used to be involved in horseracing. You know that horses go in and out
of form. Whole Stables of horses tend to be in or out of form! also the jockeys
go in and out of form. Trainers go in and out of form. Even horseracing tipsters
themselves go in and out of form! ( and I can imagine trading signal services
follow this same pattern! )

In fact for a while I was a member of the 'Which Tipster Club' - which carefully
monitored the top tipsters and watched them go out of form and watched for
signs of them coming back into form again which would provide a window of
opportunity before they went out of form again. so every sunday we would receive,
not the top six tipsters per se, but the six tipsters that appeared to be coming into
form over that last week. The tipsters that seemed to be entering into a 'wave 5'
of performance if you like.

Exactly as Tracker described the situation!


In my sales career my manager would always warn the guys about the
'appointment syndrome' this being the situation when someone has
ten leads and makes ten appointments! The danger here is when they
think appointment setting is a 'piece of cake' and start to get blaze-
the next week they more often than not will make very few appointments
- it always seemed to go like that

so the manager was warning against the inevitable disappointment that
comes from believing you will only get winners and never experience
periods of drawdown so to speak

But it gets weirder!

I used to run a mail order business, providing success oriented videos. It was
reasonably successful

but as the months and years went by I couldn't help notice recurring patterns

in many ways

I would have a month when everyone from all over the UK would be ordering
a certain title A and almost no one would order title B

then the next month it would be completely reversed

Also, and this was even more weird

One month I might get a lot of feedback, again from all over the UK, and
I would get complaints ( and demographically it transpired the complainants
would be all of the same age group ) but then the next month I would get a similar
amount of feedback and it would be nearly all positive with glowing testimonials!

I wouldn't begin to try to explain this phenomenon, but it is hard probably for
anyone in the mail order business to not have some sense of ' the collective unconscious ' *

* ( There is evidence that something of this nature has even been detected amongst animals -
see below )

Whether such collective behaviour patterns could even apply to banks, financial institutions
and hedge fund managers I couldn't say but emotions certainly drive the markets and it
would not surprise me

Can we use this information constructively?

Well tapping and self hypnosis are both very powerful aids if we are going 'off the boil '

but even then, we should have a realistic viewpoint-

There are times when the market performs sub optimally and times when we will
not perform at our best

If we can recognize when the markets are just chopping about erratically, then
as Immy says, the greatest victory may be just exercising restraint

and if we can detect that our emotional state is less than stable, perhaps
the same advice holds good!

Winning can often be obtained by simply cutting down on our mistakes

and trading when we shouldn't be trading is one of the most insidious
ways of having money syphoned out of our accounts.

So taking time out to meditate on our behavioural patterns may indeed
be a very wise investment of our time

not necessarily to completely eradicate all negative behaviour but
maybe to be more in touch with our moods, so that ultimately
we only trade when 'we're in the zone'

It makes so much sense when we see it written down in black and white

but putting it into practice - that's the tricky part!

--------------------------------------------------------------

* '' The One Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon ''

The Japanese monkey, Macaca Fuscata, had been observed in the wild for a period of over 30 years.

In 1952, on the island of Koshima, scientists were providing monkeys with sweet potatoes dropped in the sand. The monkey liked the taste of the raw sweet potatoes, but they found the dirt unpleasant.

An 18-month-old female named Imo found she could solve the problem by washing the potatoes in a nearby stream. She taught this trick to her mother. Her playmates also learned this new way and they taught their mothers too.

This cultural innovation was gradually picked up by various monkeys before the eyes of the scientists. Between 1952 and 1958 all the young monkeys learned to wash the sandy sweet potatoes to make them more palatable. Only the adults who imitated their children learned this social improvement. Other adults kept eating the dirty sweet potatoes.

Then something startling took place. In the autumn of 1958, a certain number of Koshima monkeys were washing sweet potatoes -- the exact number is not known. Let us suppose that when the sun rose one morning there were 99 monkeys on Koshima Island who had learned to wash their sweet potatoes. Let's further suppose that later that morning, the hundredth monkey learned to wash potatoes.

THEN IT HAPPENED!

By that evening almost everyone in the tribe was washing sweet potatoes before eating them. The added energy of this hundredth monkey somehow created an ideological breakthrough!

But notice: A most surprising thing observed by these scientists was that the habit of washing sweet potatoes then jumped over the sea...Colonies of monkeys on other islands and the mainland troop of monkeys at Takasakiyama began washing their sweet potatoes.

Thus, when a certain critical number achieves an awareness, this new awareness may be communicated from mind to mind.

Although the exact number may vary, this Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon means that when only a limited number of people know of a new way, it may remain the conscious property of these people.

But there is a point at which if only one more person tunes-in to a new awareness, a field is strengthened so that this awareness is picked up by almost everyone!

A Post script to that - it has been observed that so often new breakthroughs, such as in the field
of medicine occur almost simultaneously in universities throughout the world

The Truth can be stranger than fiction!

[kiravon]

' I chose not to take that fruit as there was no angulation, although there was quite a distance from gator '


' That was the peak of strong and nicely moving wave 3, it was not a spike move that you'd expect will turn around....

... You have to learn to read trend and where does a trend end. where it ends is where we look for fruit.'

[kooky]

Guys, I have read this forum religiously every day for 3 years, like having breakfast. I am most probably one of the the ones that make Immy want to hit the Delete button. I am a non Tech Savvy, 61 y old, wanna be, 2 bob trader, and thank you Tomi for politely suggesting simulation, but I don't even know what a simulator is, let alone how to find, install or run one. But after staring at charts all day and all week and all month as I do a lot, could I be so bold as to suggest we should SIMPLY look for Seeds and S1 near the Alligator, and Fruit away from the Alligator. Please God could it be this simple, and why did it take me three years to see it????? kooky

[immy]

Guys, I have read this forum religiously every day for 3 years, like having breakfast. I am most probably one of the the ones that make Immy want to hit the Delete button. I am a non Tech Savvy, 61 y old, wanna be, 2 bob trader, and thank you Tomi for politely suggesting simulation, but I don't even know what a simulator is, let alone how to find, install or run one. But after staring at charts all day and all week and all month as I do a lot, could I be so bold as to suggest we should SIMPLY look for Seeds and S1 near the Alligator, and Fruit away from the Alligator. Please God could it be this simple, and why did it take me three years to see it????? kooky

Kooky!

Firstly I RATE you!

Your tenacity is worth appreciating. And I do.

Secondly, you've hit the NAIL on its HEAD! It is that simple.

\:D/

[kiravon]

The Best MT4 Indicator!

There is one indicator that could make most of us very rich!

Why hasn't anyone ever thought of it before?

Something actually infinitely more profitable than AIMS!

Something better than all of Snorm's indicators put together!

Simply, if we just 'Stop' trading when the markets are choppy
with no volatility

We can recognize those times, but for some of us, an indicator that
pops up and really doesn't mince words?

How useful would that be?

It might look a bit like this -

stop.gif

[kiravon]

[center]

stop.gif

[/center]

[center]'' it's a bit difficult to bypass such low-volatility times without
becoming trapped by actionism and searching for setups even if they don't exist ''[/center][center]Michael Z[/center]

[center]''' Come on Guys! A few spikes never hurt anyone, if it looks just a bit like a set up just Go for it!''[/center] [center]Trading devil[/center]

[center]'' It's a very low volatility morning on the Dax,
choppy sideways tight range bound, perhaps best to exercise patience and restraint? ''[/center] [center]Trading angel[/center]

[kiravon]

In my defence....

I had to go out and leave the charts

So I 'set and forget'

Nothing wrong in that in itself

Immy doesn't like TP and I understand why. TP can take you out of
a really nice trade just like a SL can

However just as Daily traders will do better in the longterm despite
the mathematical disadvantages

so likewise set and forget traders tend to do better than pro active
traders who continually monitor their trades

Sometimes we just need to get out of our own way!

The following is not the best advert for set and forget

Today I took one trade, an invalid S2 trade - will you just look
at where the AO was!!!!! (below)

Honestly, if I had just downed my tenth Polski Piwo could I have
been any more brainless?

I lost 42 pips I kid you not!

It is in fact just such brainless activity that makes this site
so invaluable!

More and more I am coming to realize that success is little
more than avoiding such trading buffoonery

I know I lead the field in this area but there are others -
who shall not be named

and I learn from them just as I hope others will learn from
my mistakes

One guy, arguably one of the more profitable traders, is what
I would call a 'system perfectionist'

I know in my heart that the system itself is largely irrelevant,
any cross of any MA's in the direction of the higher TF is
probably good enough

but I still find myself drawn to anything that might lead
me closer to that elusive 'Holy Grail' of trading

so a little tweak here, a little tweak there...

Even this weekend I had an 'eureka' moment

I was previously a member of a group where the
mentor gives a daily commentary and he is good
no question

typically he will say 'we will look to go long if
we get a bounce off such and such key support'

He is very reliable

So I thought if I used his recommendations as a filter,
about four a day

and then use AIMS to determine the precise entry signal?

Always seeking, always striving,

Never finding!

It just simply doesn't work

Don't get me wrong, this guy is one of the best, on the
4H and Dailies

but its like 'Ham and Jam sandwich'

Both are great, but come on - not together!

Nothing wrong in following this guy's commentary...

Nothing wrong in perfecting any one of the AIMS
systems - they are all proven and highly profitable

But this notion of always striving to concoct the very
best of the best systems is fatally flawed

Its not about the system as we all surely know by now

So in some ways the guys I might admire the most can be
my greatest Nemesis

This is a game of psychology - more than anything else

which is why its so hard

Helping others with their flawed mindset is relatively easy

Helping ourselves with our own flawed mindset is like

picking up an armchair

while we are still sitting in it!

In other words we are too close to the situation.

So the next best thing, - I see a guy struggling,
I note his intensity, I think to myself, lighten up, trading needs to
be relaxed and fun. You can in fact try too hard

So I try to incorporate that into my psyche

As mentioned, I see system seekers who already have more
than they need. I take note. I'm just like that. Perfect your
mindset, not your system!

I see guys who are not succeeding as quickly as they would like

I note they do not have a journal, at least not a current one

I take note - there is their biggest mistake! So I strengthen
my resolve to keep up with my journal, to keep up the T20s
to monitor my DS

This won't give me instant success, but it is almost impossible
to diligently maintain a journal and not achieve trading success
at some point. You keep learning - you note what works and what
doesn't over time

Then we note the extremely successful guys who seem to do
no wrong. They are given flattering titles

but I call them 'clinical technicians' - not my style at all

I prefer the more artistic approach with lashings of poetic
licence

I have the right to remain poor after all

Which brings us back full circle to today's 'artistic' offering
with plenty of poetic licence at a price of a mere 42 pips

But not in vain if I learn something from it, and especially
if others can learn from such examples, be they positive or
negative

Screenshot_2.png

[immy]

I clicked the thumbs up... but that did not quench my thirst. So I decided to write it here. I liked what you wrote. It was a good read. thank you.