Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Sequence 14

C1 DS 1 -7
C2 DS 1 -1
C3 DS 1 +4
C4 DS 1 -10
C5 DS 1 +4

Just +4 today waited for price to break both M1 and M5 level
( more comment on that on Mickey HTF thread )

usdcad.jpg

[kiravon]

Am I just a closet Indiphile?

I really liked the idea of a completely uncluttered chart with nothing but
horizontal lines plotting the Fractal levels of current plus 5x higher time frame.

Grant seems to put a lot of store on where the 5x higher TF, is and his results
speak volumes

I even thought I would pay someone to design such an Indi

but guess what?

Its already out there!

Within less than one minute of installing I could see that my hypothesis
that price breaking both AIMS levels would make for a much stronger
trade does not seem to be confirmed at all

but the idea of noting likely reversal at HTF level may well have
merit which is doubtless why Grant takes serious note of it
on his flow chart

I like this Indi

Its a perfect compliment for Grant's Flow Chart

it might keep you out of many losing trades
or keep you out of many winning trades

I think indicators for indicators sake!

I will certainly play around with this for no other reason than
Grant's enviably consistent results

twin Fractal level indicator.JPG

[wiseambitions]

Do you have a link for this twin fractal indicator? It could be quite useful. I definitely find the multi fib indicator from snorm is very handy.

Separate from that there is a different indicator called the Donchian channel indicator which can be found all over the www. What it does is plot two lines for the highest and the lowest price in the previous however many bars you want to choose, eg 20. Of course it does not alert to fractal breaks per se but very often once the price nudges a previous high or low donchian level it tends to move a bit further in the same direction, I don't think the levels it shows are strong support or resistance. Obviously it's nothing to do with Bill Williams or the Aims strategy even if it more or less does the same thing.

[immy]

Am I just a closet Indiphile?

I really liked the idea of a completely uncluttered chart with nothing but
horizontal lines plotting the Fractal levels of current plus 5x higher time frame.

Grant seems to put a lot of store on where the 5x higher TF, is and his results
speak volumes

BTDT!

[kiravon]

Just adding a little horizontal line isn't going to hurt is it?


I chanced upon this thread, it really made me smile
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=164704

The very first post is excellent:-

'' I've been demo and live trading breakouts of the fractal channel
for about the past month. Results have been pretty good..... ''

Very similar to AIMS so yes it likely would be profitable...

so why not just be content with that?

oh no! that would be too easy!

Just take a look at what happens next....

You can guess

Everyone else jumps in and piles on their collection
of favourite indicators

by page 6 I think you have over 30 indicators to add
to this very simple break of Fractal system

and here's the point - why stop at 30?

Immy added AO and Alligator to Fractals some years ago and
never added anything else in all these years

Although it may be a bit tedious for Immy to see all the
hotshots come and go with all their 'innovations' when
really it is pretty much all superfluous.

I can understand that

The problem is it's a bottomless pit!

Let us say that there is a perfect blend of indicators that could
really optimize AIMS to make it significantly more profitable than
it is

We just need to try different indicators and different settings

but that would mean literally millions of combinations!

Put like that it would seem like a fools errand

a bottomless pit

The pure and simple AIMS system simply says price is breaking
past a level that it recently didn't want to, it might therefore
be making a profitable move

Thats all

very often it doesn't amount to much but the real essence of
AIMS is that thanks to the clever use of two tone AIMS boxes
you can minimize your risk so you never need to lose much

but sometimes you can get some nice winners that more
than cover these rent trades

Doubling your account every three months this way is definitely
attainable

so what more is needed?

So playing around with extra indicators is fine, it can be fun,
it can sometimes even give us a new perspective

but the danger, as we see in that forum thread, is that
more and more complicated additions to AIMS system
or any other system is highly unlikely to improve matters

and might obscure the basic profitable edge that the
basic raw system gives

as Einstein said

'' Keep everything as simple as possible, but no simpler ''

In trading I think we ignore this advice at our peril

Anyone following Grant's Flowchart however might find it useful to see
at a glance where the 5 x HTF level is

personally I'm not particularly a big fan of Grant's approach

I'm just a big fan of his results!
--------------------------

The attached Indi is public domain

SR_Barry_Eli_MTF_channel_ammended.mq4

[kiravon]

So I start my revolutionary NP10 today

Obviously I have to adjust my P/L forecast according to TF

NP -25 DS1 Actual =

Its a M5 time frame with 25 pip SL

I anticipate I might have four consecutive losers of
around -25 pips on this TF then likely due a nice winner

Great! I have just neutralized any dread of losing this trade

Lets just work through the numbers until we hit the winners

ej.JPG

[kiravon]

Trade has moved in my favour

I have moved Stop to under Gator -10 pips maximum loss

NP now -10 DS1 Actual=

Not sure if anyone has any clue what I'm writing about, and indeed
it may or may not be of any use to anyone else

but I was seriously mentally and emotionally at peace with losing
-25 pips

Now I can't lose more than -10 pips

which will seem like I'm +15 pips up!

even when I'm -10 pips down!

So I win even when I lose!

It doesn't get any better than that!

[kiravon]

New AIMS level formed!....

Moved Stop up to below new AIMS level and below Gator

Stop now -2.5!! This is my maximum risk!

and now the memories all come flooding back!

Last year, May - September I tripled my account even with two months off!

and this was a big feature! ...

my Stop loss column in this case would have read 25/2.5

Meaning initial SL 25 moved to 2.5

I always did this!

and the other primary method was entering on M5 and trailing on M1
when there was momentum, to squeeze as much out of the trade
as possible!

You have to reduce the Stop.

Winning in trading is little more than reducing the losses, or rather
the amount of the loss.

Anyone can get nice winners but for what purpose if you
give even more back

so last year a high number of my losers had been reduced to well under -10SL

whereas some of the winners ran on +80, +100 +234 etc!!!

when losses are kept to a minimum amount by moving stops you don't need
that many winners to come out well ahead!!!

This is a very good day!!!

The knack I acquired last year was priceless - I really did triple my account

but I drifted into Indi land and lost the knack I had acquired

because I didn't even know I had the knack

so I never really knew I had lost the knack!

Because I never had a journal!!!

so now hopefully it is always here to remind me

Without a journal chances of consistent success are slim to non existent!

[kiravon]

I lost! -2.5 pips

but I can live with any number of losers like that!

[immy]

personally I'm not particularly a big fan of Grant's approach

I'm just a big fan of his results!

The above post was very well written and quite entertaining and informative however it ends with an epic line!

that just made me roll on the floor laughing like a mad chimp!

I'm no fan on this fat english bald farty kiwi deck either! !

If this Kiwi Advert does not make you laugh and I don't what will ... thanks
(supposedly a banned commercial hehe... FFS)

[youtube]hkmeoYKYctw[/youtube]