Kyle's Journal Mk2

[Kyle]

LO session is done, and I was not able to be in on much of it as my son was home today (tea time/bed time for him).
I did have a look at the chart and thought I'd post it here with my own observations. Looks to have been a hard session.

2015-06-19_LO.png

In my honest assessment, there would have been five trades that I'd have taken, marked 1-5 on the chart.
Initial breakout to the high side would have been too many pips for me (34), and as such not included as a potential trade, however, that breakout candle produced a great fruit, closing at its low. Good angle on it. unfortunately, this would have hit SL. A repeat for virtual trade 2 with great angle, looking to be a peak or high in A0 and initially quite a good trade - going past 1:1 with the trade.It did not get to stage 3 as such, so a close above green would not have applied and it would have hit SL.
There was another fruit after that as well, but in my own mind, I would not have taken it, believing the last two rents and continual push up was gaining strength. A0 also was not at its peak, so an eventual rent was saved there.
Trade 3 would have been on a long seed after a pull back from w3 into W4 and a possible return on W5. It started to go up after a few candles, but rented again. maybe analysis might show that it was not ideal with the candle before the fruit stalling somewhat - not sure if there should be anything read into that or if I was over-analysing it.
Then comes another Fruit, trade 4, which pinned straight after (almost hitting SL), but from that point, moved through the Alligator relatively easily, before a very bearish Fruit pin short. I woudl have closed the trade on that candle, which would have given a 1:1 profit.
Trade 5 would have been a classic breakout long, but it was very short lived and SL would have been hit soon after. There was also a breakout short soon after, but I would not have been overly interested in that, with the session being quite bullish and quite possibly not looking for a short there.

So in all, with my honest analysis of what I would have done in the heat of the moment, 5 trades would have been taken, with 4 rents and one 1:1 profit, giving a net result around 2% rent on the session.

Of note for myself, no trades in that session would have qualified for my "bread and butter" trade, which is a clear w3 identification, correction into W4 and then either a fruit trade into W5 and or breakout into W5. I am going to keep a bit of a note on those that I identify and what the result of just those are. Am currently thinking that it could be worthwhile looking for those if I could average say 5 of those a week at a 60% strike rate, it could be very profitable even though most trades would be filtered out and the 2hr sessions X2 could become quite "boring".

[Kyle]

And here is my NEO Chart for today.
Immy got a great entry a bit prior to NEO and traded the heck out of it like a champion. For me, it was almost the setup I want to target, but it did not get a fruit at the top of the W4 and dropped. Without that signal, the first Add-On for Immy was counter-trend and I didn't take it (also not in NEO). that trade turned into a lovely W3, but on to the chart below.

2015-06-19_NEO.png

The W3 was well into it at NEO and first opportunity to get in on a breakout was too high in pips for me to take, so let it go. It eventually stopped its move with a rather large fruit and moved into what became a W4. Watching this closely, I was looking for it to possibly go above A0 and give a fruit at that W4 peak, which it did. An entry there would ahve gained 25 pips to 14 stop, and the following Addon would have been 21 pips to 19 stop. It gave a warning of its completion soon after with a pin, and in the ideal scenario (for me), I'd have put the stop just above that pin, which it would have hit very soon after.

That trade would have been a 1.4% trade off the initial 0.5% risk trades in short time.

I didn't trade it today, I decided to observe for the last session of the week, and come back fresh next week with a clearer mind.

I feel these setups will become the staple of my trading into the future. I believe they could hit a 60% strike rate pretty easily, and give good R:R on the trades as well. One of these each day would give 5 a week, with 3 profitable. With a few good R:R ones, some great % gains should be seen pretty consistantly. Enough to work towards a 4% per week long term average anyway.

[immy]

Kyle

good analysis. one just needs the necessary balls to hold on to their trades, and take those setups without reservation or hesitation. forget the guess work and be inthe church of now.!

Have a good weekend

[Kyle]

OK guys. I have studied and found seeds along with Grant's management techniques a real good fit for me, so am trading them now. Also coincides with a HDD failure, so spreadsheet has also started over. Hoping that the HDD can be repaired, but no success yet.

I did not take a trade in LO. Was not particularly condusive to seeds, however, i did take two trades in NEO.
Unfortunately, both rented, and I did find things to consider further before jumping in to the trades.

First trade was a pullback from peak of W3 and a subsequent seed. Did not last long and rented. Hindsight, and conversation in the Skype room had me realise two things with this one. It violated one of my rules, wanting both the current and Higher Time frame gators to be open in the direction of the trade. m1 was opening to the down side so should not have traded it. Immy also pointed out that the W3 looked a peak, rather than a simple pullback, so with that in mind, I possibly traded into a W4 - which turned out to be the case. Something to learn from. That said, DS for the trade was a 0.

Second Trade was two seeds. I entered the first one, then cancelled and entered a second one with tighter stops when the second seed printed. Although eWaves did fall off the peak, the actual price action did not pull back very much and conversation in the Skype room was that it was not int he right spot and maybe should not have been traded. The more ideal spot was a bit prior at the previous low, but no seed printed.

So, a renty day today (-1.6%), but they happen and I'm not worried about it.

Chart attached

2015-07-13_NEO.png

[Kyle]

Just traded NEO today as I was at a work meeting throughout LO.

Just the one trade on it, which was a BE trade after moving SL to BE at 1:1.

After shutting down for the day due to PA getting all shitty, anice Seed came up and it ended up being a missed opportunity (2.4:1 @ 1810). Lesson in that to stay the distance and remain trading for the two hour session. Finished the day with just a 0.1% rent, but could have easily been over 2% if I stayed for the whole session.

2015-07-14_NEO.png

[Kyle]

Just a quick one for today. I am yet to complete my new Trading Plan, but will post it as soon as it is done. I have taken Immy's advice and am trading seeds and star fruits.

No luck in LO as I was at work, but DAX seemed to not open until 90 minutes into the session anyway.

Just into NEO, we got a fruit star that was valid. I kept it open until the price went above it, but there were also three seed shorts afterwards. I should have put in a seed PO and then cancelled the initial trade/s but did not. In the end, as seen on the chart, it dropped like a lead balloon with a potential of 9% on that move. Oh well, one missed and one learned.
I then took a short PO which was cancelled. As mentioned on the chart, possibly not a great trade as we had a big W3 and eWave peak, so rubber banding effect possibly in play. I cancelled it anyway after the price went above it. After noticing the possible issue with the extended W3, I didn't trade the next seed signal, which saved a rent, and then placed a short PO on the fruit when A0 was close to 0. It had actually crossed at that point, but the subsequent down move altered it a bit. I took the short and at 1:1, moved SL to BE. Some others int he Skype room closed half the trade instead, making it also a risk free trade for them. I closed on the next fruit signal and was satisfied with the result. It did drop further, but you need to follow your MM rules. Closing on a close above green would have allowed a few more pips, but I am happy closing it where it was. normally, I'd move SL to just above the fruit candle, but this closed on its high, so I closed it straight out. The trade gave me 14 pips @ 1.7%. Although I missed the earlier one, and it would have been quite large, I am happy with what I did accept from the market.

2015-07-20_NEO.png

[mirgi]

Hi Kyle, what settings do you use that your fruit indicator 4.0 have black/gold and silver X? Thanks.

[Kyle]

No LO for me today as my son was here.

NEO opened up quite well, but some of my ideas were still forming for the trading, and Grant, Immy and the rest of the AIMsters in the Skype room helped out heaps with a few last questions on rules etc. My initial feelings of having the m1 Alli open in the direction of the trend is not so vital for a good strong trend. From the start of NEO, I missed one trade, unfortunately while I was updating info from the Skype chat. Something I promised myself I wouldn't do until the end of the session. That ended up being a 3% lesson as a great shorting opportunity came up.

Anyway, it is all on the chart. I took three trades, with two rents but in profit for the day (1.64%, -0.86%, -0.5%). I am certain of improvement after todays trading, given the invaluable help from the skype room.
Here is todays chart

2015-07-22_NEO.png

My rules now to work by are
1. Alert pops up
2. HTF Alli is open in the direction of the trade
3. eWave has had a new peak (lower peaks are invalid)
4. AO is correct side of 0 and pulled back after the new peak

Trade management includes
1. At 1:1, move SL to BE
2. Trail AIMS boxes
3. Trail candles after 5 red/blue in a row
4. Move SL to other side of fruit candles

Really looking forward to some great pippage in the future B-)

[Kyle]

Trading plan for those interested

Trading Plan 2015.docx

[Kyle]

OK, been through a LO finally, however, not too happy that I missed an opportunity. At least I see it and will be able to improve on it.
From the opportunities today, LO could have been as follows
1013 was a 1.67:1
1032 was a 2.1:1
1046 was a BE
1136 was a -1
1143 was a BE
Total on the session for the trader who is confident and in the zone = 2.77% - All should have been with no stress involved. I ahve learned a fair bit today from it, and made the mistake of treating a fruit into W5 the same as a Seed/Cherry, so I aim to not make that mistake again, even though that seed trade was a BE, I need to take them still.

Here is the chart of it.

2015-07-22_LO.png

back for NEO