Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

If purple is a derivative of red on 5x HTF
and best apples hang off purple then
cherries must hang off the red on 5x HTF

[immy]

You almost got it.
Cherries that hang off the red line of current time frame are apples that hang off 5X Lower time frame. Red of current time frame is purple of 5 x lower time frame.

so, again
the best cherries hang off?????

[kiravon]

I can't define the best cherries in words but my instinct would
be to look for confluence as in this example below of course
this setup was a victim of its own success in that it was
so strong it resulted in a big momentum move
probably before we would have entered

But most cherries seem to retest AIMS and bounce
off or through Green, but don't know what makes
the best cherries the best. I will trade a few
until I find out

Cherry like setup.JPG

In the meantime a somewhat rangebound M15
suggests it will hit +30 pip bottom of range
before it hits my 13 pip SL

I've managed to reduce SL to break even so its
a free trade with +30 quite likely

7th.JPG

[kiravon]

Bringing Myself Up to Speed!


Got to within 5 pips of target before the trade
stalled and reversed so stopped at break even.

C1 +170 pips DS 10
C2 +45 pips DS 10
C3 +221 pips DS 10
C4 -6 pips DS 10
C5 BE DS 10

Worth mentioning here a similarity between Ray's thinking
on SL and my own, quite coincidentally.

Ray I believe places Stop not outside AIMS but outside
Gator, or green and red at least. Whilst he acknowledges
he may be stopped a little more often he likely feels
more than compensated by minimizing the risk

My tendency which seems to have evolved is to place
initial stop above AIMS where possible but as soon as price
seems to be moving in my favour to then follow Ray's
strategy of bringing Stop to just outside red and green
and then to trail strategically for example, just tuther
side of a new or prior AIMS level.

So I'm guessing that maybe Ray and I may have something in
common ie we don't mind losing, but prefer not to lose very much

Which raises the question, which of the three SL versions is best?
Well you could check all the stats to find out which is the most
profitable and the result may likely be leave SL above AIMS -
- 'room to breath' etc

but that doesn't answer what is 'best', because by that
criteria we should all be trading the Daily TF as statistically
long term traders are more profitable in the longterm.

But there is more to it than that

I will give another horseracing example:-

one old pro always preferred hedging two horses in
the same race, the favourite and second favourite
when there is little other competition in an 8 runner
race.

needless to say he won more often than not but
after the expense of backing the horse that didn't win
the profit was greatly reduced

so he conceded it was more profitable to just back one
horse per race

despite periodically getting a long run of losers

whereas backing two horses per race you make less
profit but almost guaranteed never to lose more than
about two or three successive races.

Now, this is where it gets interesting!

Lets suppose we have hedged two horses in every race
and have lost the last three races. just about
bearable. but now in the fourth race one of our horses
is at the rear most of the race, basically written off,
but as they approach the finishing line he suddenly bolts
past the pack and storms ahead to make a spectacular win!
- everyone loves to see the underdog make good

so you feel well chuffed, you backed that horse and that
spectacular win makes you feel like a real Pro Punter.

so you are very confident to bet on the next race
and you check the form book with a winning mindset.

but statistically? you probably lost -10GBP, -10GBP, -10GBP, +3GBP
In other words you've lost 30 quid but you just made 3 quid!

but you don't feel bad because that horse's winning 'spurt'
has restored your faith in your judgement, renewed your
confidence so you are able to continue in the all important
'right frame of mind'

and success in trading isn't about winning the absolute
maximum possible but more about stickability

I remember one of the greatest insights I gleaned before
the Summer Recess was something I called the Neutralizing
Protocol; it was a system of anticipating the maximum loss
in one column followed by the actual loss in the subsequent
column

Immy was quick to point out that we shouldn't be focused
on loss as that can manifest itself - law of attraction,
law of expectation etc, and thats obviously true

but my experience is that its going to manifest anyway

and my absolute belief is that trading has relatively
little to do with winning and everything to do with losing!

or our attitude to losing at least

So my Neutalizing Protocol is simply a rehash of that old
horseracing Pro's two horse hedging strategy

He recognized that psychology reigns supreme over
statistics even though ironically statistics was his forte

So if I have a SL -25 just past AIMS level and that
represents a good RR, but I then am able to legitimately reduce
that risk significantly - that is a great achievement in itself

I believe I demonstrated how a -2,000 pip losing month
could be transformed into a +300 pip winning month
by doing nothing more than reducing the risk by moving
SL appropriately.

So clearly then ( in my mind at least ) the profit didn't
come from the winning trades but rather it came from
managing the losers efficiently, and thereby salvaging
over 2,000 pips.

so thats where the 'stress free' trading is - not in
avoiding losing trades - that will never happen, but rather
in reducing the risk and thereby increasing the end of month
profit.

Two of my recent trades confirm this -

last week I had a +220 pip chance with stop moved to break even
I won 220 pips but I couldn't lose!

Today I had a good chance at +30 pips with Stop moved to BE
I missed out on the 30 pips but still no stress as I couldn't lose!

The underlying factor to all this is the need to be stress free at all times
in order to trade in the zone - it is absolutely essential

So along with efficient risk management is an equally essential
component to consistent success in trading

and I'm sure any readers appreciate I'm merely bringing
myself back up to speed here after the Summer recess -

but its something I've touched on last week

the need to keep my powder dry! so whether its
ripe cherries or apple candies to only trade the best of the best
setups, and when a compelling setup is not jumping
out at us from the monitor to simply walk away!

I resurrected this from a few months ago - reminding myself
of the one indicator that would be more profitable than
all others combined if only it existed

What other job pays you far more money for sitting on your
hands?

[center]

file.gif

[/center]
[center]'' it's a bit difficult to bypass such low-volatility times without
becoming trapped by actionism and searching for setups even if they don't exist ''[/center][center]Michael Z[/center]

[center]''' Come on Guys! A few spikes never hurt anyone, if it looks just a bit like a set up just Go for it!''[/center] [center]Trading devil[/center]

[center]'' It's a very low volatility morning on the Dax,
choppy sideways tight range bound, perhaps best to exercise patience and restraint? ''[/center] [center]Trading angel[/center]

[kiravon]

Cherrylike Behaviour?

I missed this trade earlier but I would definitely have taken it if
I had been around +110pips for 28pip risk 1:4 RR

Now I don't know if it is strictly a Cherry, but I believe it has
Cherrylike characteristics

But here is my question

'The Best Cherries'?

Would a ''best cherry' setup be better than this?

I love everything about the example below!

It has everything that I believe is a cherry
setup plus a beautiful S2 with AO all in
the right place at the right time

Could it just be, that a break of AIMS
entry addition is what constitutes
'Best Cherry'?

Because I'm wondering does it actually
get any better than this?

cherrylike.JPG

[immy]

Cherrylike Behaviour?

I missed this trade earlier but I would definitely have taken it if
I had been around +110pips for 28pip risk 1:4 RR

Now I don't know if it is strictly a Cherry, but I believe it has
Cherrylike characteristics

But here is my question

'The Best Cherries'?

Would a ''best cherry' setup be better than this?

I love everything about the example below!

It has everything that I believe is a cherry
setup plus a beautiful S2 with AO all in
the right place at the right time

Could it just be, that a break of AIMS
entry addition is what constitutes
'Best Cherry'?

Because I'm wondering does it actually
get any better than this?

cherrylike.JPG

Whether the bar is a cherry bar or not is a secondary thing. What matters is whether the Setup was correct. The setup is created when the purple, gator lines, box and eWave bars are in a certain formation.

So here the eWave analysis was as such.
It had crossed ZL below becoming red, it had then printed a couple of dark bars, a bit of pullback on the 2nd of September. and having pulled back making a pc aims box over night the maroon bars on eWave were all pointing to one thing, momentum is down and price is pulling back against dominant momentum time to look for some entries but first lets analyse the box and gator

Gator analysis:
the green and red line had touched making us take that as a sleeping gator. But it was important to know that it was not fully sleeping with blue line intertwined. We see that it was open YD and briefly slept due to the healthy pullback.

Box Analysis
the box was not too big and the low of the box presented us an entry outside the congestion area.

Yes it was a setup that happens on H1 time frame, quite often.

[kiravon]

Thanks, I had some vague idea of retracement but missing the
AO retracement. It seems like a solid formation.

but after a few piwos last night I might struggle to explain the trade below
although it did make perfect sense at the time.

Not even sure if entry was S2 but not S1 as gator wasn't exactly sleeping,
more like crossing but break of AIMS anyway and AO at Zero

initial SL was 6 pips on M5 TF and TP +17 which was Ok but then
I moved SL to +3pips and moved TP to +43 on H1 TF

So at the present time I can only win +3 or +43pips so still no
stress.

So I will express my SL in my T20 summary as -6/+3 as this
is a major part of my strategy and having reread much of Grant's
journal yesterday I am reminded that Grant puts much store on
reducing risk as quickly as he can.

That gives me a lot of confidence that I'm on the right track
with this.

I know there will be some great wins, maybe not today but
usually over each T20 sequence they will show up.

So all I have to do is not hand it all back with sloppy trade
management.

10th.JPG

[kiravon]

C1 +170 pips DS 1
C2 +45 pips DS 1
C3 +221 pips DS 1
C4 -6 pips DS 1
C5 BE DS 1
C6 +3 DS 1 SL -6/+3
( Psychologically I viewed the trade as +9 locked in my
favour because although I only won +3 - I focus on the
9pip move of SL which impacts on end of month profits.

So I am focused on end of month profit, I am absolutely not
focusing on losers or losing. In other words without reducing the risk
what would happen if I had 30 trades like this in a month?

I would lose -180 pips - and have done many times and then some!

but with more pro active trade management I reduce the risk to +3
which is +90pips at the end of the month - and thats the worst
that can happen and doesn't even anticipate that one or two
might run on +100 or +200 etc )

Of course in reality I won't be able to reduce SL to +3 every trade,
but the goal is to be vigilant to find some valid level to move SL
to as quickly as possible so if I can just halve the risk that will
have major implications for my end of month profits

yes I did say 'profits' as I am certainly not anticipating end
of month losses - even though it can happen I keep a
positive expectation of T20 results and monthly, yearly
results.

[kiravon]

In a Quandary!

To be honest I'm a little perplexed.

Yes I had a few drinks last night and woke up a little groggy
this morning, - not hungover, just a bit liverish.

I saw a valid S1 setup with a +40 pip chance and a 12 pip
risk, better than 1:4 RR so I placed a PO above AIMS, SL and
TP orders and went out for the rest of the day.

but when I was out I got to wondering why I took the trade.
yes the setup was valid but was it really compelling? in other
words to what extent was I influenced by last night's beveraging?

I got to questioning whether any alcohol in the bloodstream is
really conducive to acting in my own best interests?

and beyond alcohol there are many other factors that can
impact upon our judgement.

We do need a very clear mind

While I was out I won +40 pips and after a retrace possibly
more to come.

But my judgement is cloudy still, even now! I'm focused on
the nice little win which seems 'to make everything right'

Had I lost would I be cursing myself for trading while still
a little under the influence?

yes I believe so.

The trade doesn't matter but the bigger issue -

I don't really have the clarity to know if I have
clarity.

Was I just lucky?

No, it was a valid setup and a very healthy RR

Nevertheless I think I should have switched the computer
off today

If I cannot completely trust my judgement I shouldn't be
risking my money!

Would I give my money to another trader to trade after
he had had a night out and was attempting to trade
bleary eyed and jaundiced?

Would I consider that to be acting in my own best interests!

No way!

PS Since when has 40/12 been a 'better than 1:4 RR' !!!
I think that last line speaks volumes!!

10th2.JPG

[kiravon]

C1 +170 pips DS 1
C2 +45 pips DS 1
C3 +221 pips DS 1
C4 -6 pips DS 1
C5 BE DS 1
C6 +3 DS 1 SL -6/+3
C7 +40 DS 0 SL 12/12