Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

So continuing on from yesterdays 40 pip win
there may still be possibilities of more to come on cable

AO has retraced nicely into dark green, gator
is converging nicely and we are on right side
of purple. Box is quite small

Price now bouncing up nicely off red

so why am I hesitating?

Because there is not one but two AIMS
levels above price and price has could
just as likely be reversing - literally it
could go either way

so hardly a compelling setup

I will sit this one out

I won't trade down into purple and I will need
to see price clear AIMS levels then retrace
before going Long again

Patience and restraint is the order of the day

11th.JPG

[kiravon]

An interesting setup on EJ 1H. I'm not going to call it a
cherry or a seed nevertheless it does tick a few boxes

It previously had retraced to red or green but this
time broke through and stopped spot on 2nd to
last AIMS level with the Pinbar body nesting on
the last AIMS level which immediately followed
an inside bar

It then started to move up in the direction of the
existing trend

I see +280 pip chance for a -28 pip risk which I
believe I am now sober enough to say is 1:10 RR.

Of course it is Friday afternoon and the trend
might have either run its course or opt for
an even deeper retracement. Of course
anything can happen

But it seems to have potential and the RR
makes it quite compelling

In other words if I saw this in someone else's
journal I would consider it to be well reasoned

Which is an indication that some objectivity
might be present

11th2.JPG

[kiravon]

Quite quickly broke up through Gator, so
far so good

it would be nice if green crossed over red
but its best not to expect the market
to dance to our tune, it tends not to
for very long

11th 2b.JPG

[kiravon]

Well green did cross red and price closed past gator.
Gators mouth is opening to upside.

In this instance I am not in a hurry to move Stop.

I think I should wait for price to break AIMS and retest
that level at which point I will move Stop to BE.

If we move past that level it will be interesting to see
how much of that potential +280 pips we might win.

If any at all of course.

The trade will likely hit the weekend so anything
can happen to interfere with the plan but so far
its shaping up to be quite a solid trade

11th 2c.JPG

[kiravon]

up +31 pips and approaching key AIMS level,
I would prefer this not to hang over the weekend
but probably will have little choice

[kiravon]

So we are now up to AIMS level +40 pips

I might need to add on if it clears this level and retests
because I just noticed a Daily key AIMS level from Aug 19th
that can't be ignored.

It is 107 pips up from my entry, no disgrace there, but I
would like a shot at the +208 pips too

11th 2d.JPG

[kiravon]

I've made a mistake!

Too much haste

There is only 35 pips to the AIMS level
of Aug 19th and about 80 pips to SL!

So I've entered now all I can do is set both TPs
for the 208 pips

Nevertheless it was a careless oversight

[kiravon]

Greed, Euphoria and Overconfidence

A valuable lesson for me but others might find
this post a bit tedious - not one of the most
reader friendly

There is a big lesson for me here and I fear it may be
one that Peter ( Exponent83 ) might have identified.

He noted after a really good string of winners he would
start to lack discipline. That is a very valuable observation
if you work to eradicate the root problem.

Mark Douglas tends to substitute the word greed with euphoria
and I'm sure there is a very good reason for that.

Because it isn't greed per se that causes us to make mistakes
it is indeed the excitable emotion that may accompany the
greed

the feeling that we've arrived! that we're in the trading
big league! that we're somehow infallible

For example, it may be possible for some very greedy
people to not experience any emotion at the prospect
of a acquiring something they want, although usually
I believe excitement is present as without that
emotion what would be the point of being greedy

anyway, euphoria or over excitement seems to be
the problem and seems to induce this costly
danger of over confidence

One of the most obvious manifestations of this
can be when a trader is so confident that he
increases his position size beyond what his
rules would allow

I have been fussing and fuming over my
current trade knowing that I have made
an absolute pig's ear of it

It started out a very well reasoned trade.
At the the present time we are +75 pips
up and despite my careless blunder I
could possible end up with +750 pips!

That sometimes happens - the market
seems to reward you for your stupidity
and then your euphoria minimizes your
mistake.

So step by step this seems to be what happened-

I saw a nice trade with a 28pip risk and the next
obvious key AIMS level at +280 pips

But I was blaze about this trade, I had no need
for much analysis

Its true in the skype room where you may be
trading the M1 you have very little time for
analysis, and yes, guys will occasionally enter
where they should have exited or hit buy when
they meant to hit sell. Its fast and furious at
times but the skype room is the best place
to hone the skills needed for the shorter
time frames. - and indeed sets you up nicely
for the longer times should you later move
on to them...

which is what made my mistake on the H1
all the more reprehensible. I had plenty of time
to check everything but I didn't check
thoroughly enough

I later noticed a key AIMS level about 107pips
up from my original entry. I became a bit bewildered
and and a loss as to how to rectify my mistake.

This is the sort of situation like forgetting to put
any fruit in the fruit cake. when the cake is
half way baked its too late to put it right

So what I should have done is noted both
key levels before I entered
the trade

then set a TP for one postion 0.5% at 107 pips and a TP for the
other 0.5% at 280 pips, both with a 28 pip SL

That would have been around 200 pip chance for 28 pip risk
which would have been fine - good chance of hitting 107
and a possibility of hitting the 280 with the second
position.

Instead I was targeting the 280pips with a 1% position
then when I noticed the 107 level either greed or stupidity
kicked in and I opened another 1% position to grab that ?!

Forgetting the price had already moved up 70 pips!

So my second position was only 35 pips from target but
with a 98 pip SL!!!

How brainless is that!

and even after recognizing my mistake I didn't know what to do!

Finally a day later I see the situation clearer

We are 75 pips up with about 7 pips up on the add on

when the market opens I simply need to close the add on
for a small profit ( unless there is a reversal gap )

Then I am back to the original trade with just one
position.

I could then bring TP down to the 107 pip level or
if I am at home, more likely leave it at the 280 level
and just watch carefully at the 107 level and close
the trade if it seems necessary or it just might
power through it.

but I did get myself flustered over this and completely
flipped myself out of the zone.

certainly the idea of opening two half positions every time
is starting to have some appeal, it certainly gives more
options. close one trade at a realistic level but allow the
other to possibly continue on as a runner. Then you
hopefully have the best of both worlds.

I might be a bit reluctant to do this on the faster time
frames as I need to keep things as simple as possible
but trading the 1H or above there is plenty of time
to manage two positions

[kiravon]

Well I just closed the second position for a -8 loss,
I should count myself lucky!

I've moved Stop up to prior AIMS and just below Green,
an obvious choice for SL

I've now locked in +40 pips so its now a stress free
trade at last.

It might do quite well, if not 40 -the 8 rent is ok

11th 2f.JPG

[kiravon]

Thanks Sam
Trend decided to end it seems, I managed +41 pips minus
the 8 pips for the second position that should never have
been opened.

After a 50 pip drop on the M5 it is now retracing up to Green.
So there are possibilities for a reversal trend here to the downside