Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

C1 +170 pips DS 1
C2 +45 pips DS 1
C3 +221 pips DS 1
C4 -6 pips DS 1
C5 BE DS 1
C6 +3 DS 1 SL -6/+3
C7 +40 DS 0 SL 12/12
C8 +41 DS 0 SL 28/10
C9 -8 DS 0 add on taken in error!

[kiravon]

Well I'm in again, a bit of Stop and Reverse almost.

I noticed on the retrace there was a 5pip IB bar.

I tried to place Stop just the other side of it but my broker
doesn't allow SL or TP to be too close.

ironically their self serving rule has worked in my interests
as often as not, in other words they have actually prevented
me from stopping myself out so I have some ambivalence
to this, - I know you can circumvent this if you really
want to.

( a few minutes later )

Actually I was just stopped out for -12 so ambivalence
no more! It should have been -8 just other side of seed

Never mind, on to the next!

14th.JPG

[kiravon]

Rinse and Repeat!

Why did I take that trade on a Monday morning?

It was hardly compelling

The real truth is that I never got my 280 pips
on the uptrend and felt a little cheated, so decided
I would collect the balance on the way down

Apparently the market doesn't issue IOU's

One teacher used to stress that if the trade fails
just move on, don't plot and scheme how to
revenge trade your money back, just walk away
from it and move on to the next trade fresh

What I did this morning wasn't revenge trading
but I think there was some unconscious belief
that the market owed me something.

These type of erroneous beliefs cost money

I know I should only trade the most compelling
trades but there is something about the word
'selectivity' that I'm not completely grasping

or rather, sometimes I get it but other times
I throw caution to the wind

I guess I'm not alone here

When we strictly adhere to the criteria we set
consistently without the fun trades, without the
gambler's fix, without the wild hunches

we are probably 90% on our way to being a truly
successful trader

my favourite catchphrase must be 'rinse and repeat'

just like it says on the shampoo bottle

just keep it very, very simple

you have any system with an edge

just keep repeating it consistently

'rinse and repeat' doesn't mean we need to
read between the lines - hmm, 'does it mean
a purple rinse? dye my hair purple?'

The manufacturers couldn't make it much
simpler to understand

it just means plain soapy water, rinse,
repeat, dry hair, come back next day and follow
exactly the same procedure every day!

Considering its not exactly rocket science its
amazing how many of us struggle with this
extremely simple concept!

[immy]

The best way to make sure you hit the ball correctly is to learn to "watch the ball". that's it. Its true for all the games that are played with balls... (some games are played with balls but you don't need balls for it others are played without balls but you need balls for it).

Many players lose sight of the ball and in the end the best players are those who can see the ball as early as possible, their minds are faster processors of projecting where the ball is heading, allowing them to adjust themselves accordingly yet there are others who just can't see the ball or see it too late. Simple skill, everyone should be able to do it but only few can do it in a way that really makes them special...

Rinse and repeat may be simple but not easy to achieve... at times...

[kiravon]

The Patience Equation

Very sobering post Immy.

It brought something to mind

Projecting where the ball is heading is sometimes easy,
painfully obvious, at other times the markets are such
a mess that it would be impossible for most of us, and
one of your cautions has been on occasion ' this is not
for rooky traders'.

So trying to run before we can walk can be both costly
and demoralizing

So the answer surely is to wait until we see not only
a valid setup but also the bigger picture of what is
likely happening and how the market seems to be
unfolding. When we 'see' where price is likely to
move next we tend to do quite well providing
we have a good exit strategy

but thats easier said than done, because we tend not
to wait for these times but impatiently go in again
when we see a setup that we think might possibly
come up trumps

Actually its ironic that I use the word 'trumps' because
as I wrote I didn't realize I was using a gambling expression.
- and going in again impatiently is gambling.

So this more or less boils down to an equation - and it
may not be one we want but perhaps one we do well
to work with rather than delude ourselves : -

Probably most or many of us can see a very nice setup
from time to time:-

ST+P(-AT) = S

Patiently waiting for Simple trades while leaving out
advanced trades equals success

With experience we may become more apt at 'seeing'
what is happening in these less obvious setups and
indeed be able to 'project' where the ball is heading
next.

ST + AT = S
------T
So then we can profit from both the simple and also
the less obvious setups - but only over time

If we try to run before we can walk we must expect a
few grazed knee caps

So actually it is a very simple equation in theory, but in practice
do we really know our limitations? For example, we may be in
that 'conscious competence' phase to a certain extent, but at times
get a bit carried away thinking we can always read the market
like a book?

I think I can do this sometimes and the result is usually a four letter
word beginning with 'R'! or ST-P+AT=R for the more algabraic

So rinse and repeat is great, - if we have the patience to wait
for the setups that really make sense to us.

if we later can confidently trade more advanced setups thats a bonus
but it may not be necessary

In the meantime patience is not necessary it is essential!

[kiravon]

Does anyone have any opinions about this chart?
I'm not taking it but assuming the price drops after
a retest of AIMS and AO crosses ZL, Gator's jaws
are open and pointing down

But trading into purple, if Gator was already
below Purple I would think it had potential.

I think trading Fruit into Purple may be ok
as it is a rather contrarian strategy anyway
but this isn't Fruit

Any thoughts?

15th.JPG

[immy]

Hi


its simple. there is a green peak up, a strong move up, and this zig zaggy stuff is pullback of that up move. But since Daily chart is not in favour of longs, and H4 is showing a strong up move, I won't go short either...

cheers

ps: since you're trading the higher time frames you have a huge advantage. When you want to see the structure of a chart , you can break the chart down to 100-140 bars and see what the wave tells you. Oh but i remember you're a elliott wave blind! hmmmm apologies if I got that wrong. Suppose you were one of those who could see eWave within 10seconds you'd go to m30 for this chart where you'd see 1-5 completed to down side after a strong up move. This would suggest there is a change of more longs... who knows...

[kiravon]

Who Knows?

I've actually lost my ewave histogram when I formatted my computers.
but that would have been interesting to check.

At this point the trade is still looking slightly more bearish,
having just crossed ZL.

I've jotted down a few thoughts on the chart below.

Personally I think that if it breaks AIMS down and closes
after Purple that would be a good signal to go short

but Its quite possible that it will bounce up off AIMS and Purple
before then.

But technical points slightly to one side, and returning to
the previous theme this is an absolutely classic example!

Ordinarily I would probably have placed a PO under AIMS
to go short.

and I am really noting my impulse to do that even as I type.

Yes I have a hunch about it

Isn't it a valid S1 setup? gator intertwined, relatively sleeping?
AO just crossing zero?

but don't the rules say don't trade into Purple?

so go with the hunch or disciplined adherence to the rules?

Can I wait for a setup that meets all the rules and I also
have a good instinct about?

If I had the ability to do that, to wait patiently -
how much more money would I make?

Put like that it should be so easy to succeed
spectacularly in trading

it isn't easy!

Its almost worth keeping a journal of trading impulses,
of trades you are so tempted to take and making a
note of why you held back, how hard it was to hold
back on a scale of 1-10, and also less than perfect
setups that you succumbed to and why you succumbed.
There has to be a reason. Its psychological. Could
some other stimulation have prevented me from
taking the less than perfect setup?

Interesting

I had thought often about that, maybe even having
some gambling account such as horseracing or binary
options to substitute on these occasions

but I think that would be very shortsighted

Actually that would encourage the gambling
instinct rather than help overcome it

I just need to excercise self control and ask
that simple question

Is taking this trade really acting in my own best
interests?

Am I truly selective in picking the very best setups
or do I feel the setup might just be worth a punt?

Such constant self analysis might be a bit tedious
but I believe it is where the truth lies

Quite a telling expression in Immy's post above at
the end 'Who knows?'

If we ever seen a chart formation, like below where
it seems to be bearish but it might just be retracing
the up trend - who knows

shouldn't that be a red light?

16th.JPG

[kiravon]

A Classic Case in Point!

I am very, very pleased!

That last example was so inconclusive - seriously. even after reading
Immy's synopsis would you really be eager to enter? and we're
still not sure even what direction!

I was analysing that formation for quite a while and even with Immy's input
I was really none the wiser except I thought perhaps if I searched the house
for snorms ewave histogram I might get an idea about all those M30 elliott
wave thingies that might shed some light on the subject

in the end I just decided to walk away from it and stop willing it to be
what I wanted it to be

Meanwhile a couple of hours later on the same currency but shorter
time frames what did I see? a beautiful sight!

I looked at the 5M and I looked at the 1H and I jumped in literally
within about 5 seconds - what a contrast!

I believe thats how it should be

If there has to be umming and ahhing we should walk away because
it doesn't get better with time, it invariably gets worse, you know-
the paralysis of analysis sort of thing.

But this trade is exactly what I have been harping on last few
posts! and btw I'm not saying its going to win, that actually
isn't important

what is important both for me and the entire human race if
they are looking in, is that I stayed out of a trade I liked
because the setup was far from perfect, and I didn't
hesitate to enter a trade that was really compelling,
that ticked all the boxes and that really felt right!

Now if the dubious first trade would have won and this trade
loses it won't change my mind at all. I know I've done the
right thing

and that, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, is all that matters
in trading

and if I/we/they just keep doing that, only that, and nothing but
that we will all do very well indeed!

This is precisely what we rinse and repeat!

[kiravon]

Journal Keeping

I was trailing the momentum and was stopped very close
to where it peaked, about 6 pips under, made +22pips
nothing wrong with that

but this great! this is so like the old days when
I first started winning with AIMS, usually
trailing momentum on the 5M

I hope I'm returning to that form and keep it
this time!

which begs the question, is regularity in
keeping a journal so important? Ive had
about three months off

I think its a good question and one that is
very relevant to a good many on this forum
( or not on the forum as the case may be )

Most don't succeed with any system, AIMS
or otherwise, most don't keep a journal, those
that do soon give up after a few rents.

The ones that do succeed do keep a journal
as Immy says, 'If you don't keep a journal
you're not a trader!'

and he also warns against stop start journal
keeping is not much better

of course it isn't! whats needed is consistency
throughout

In my case I'm consistent with journal keeping
during the periods that I'm trading, approx nine
months of the year, and during the summer I try
to keep right away from the charts as much as possible.

So what when you do return after a sabbatical?

Yes you can pick it up again but you need to ease
your way back in, maybe on demo or micro account
like me, and reread your entire journal and try to
remember all the past mistakes so as to not fall into
all the old traps

But it can be done. I'm sure the ideal situation
is just keep at it without a break, but thats
not always possible

but when we are back to trading, to stay focused
and consistent during that period and definitely
keep a journal, and as candid and detailed as possible.

If we don't write it all down we forget those costly
mistakes and just keep going back to square one

and many of these experiential lessons are priceless!

We can't learn from our mistakes if we forget we made them!

16th2.JPG