Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

So another 23 pips was possible but at a -19 initial SL.
That isn't good

I'm unconvinced that opening two positions is a good
thing, I really don't know.

Firstly it is slightly more complicated and if you lose
half the time obviously you stand to lose twice.

I think its roundabouts and swings

I have a basic strategy, which is to trade momentum
and trail candles, that gets you out to within just a
few pips of the optimum and we can never get out at
the very apex of the trade, that just isn't realistic.

How it should go is a few small rents which are usually
reduced soon after entering, a few wins of 20 -40 and
occasional wins of +50, +100 and even +200 but that
is the exception

but at the end of the month that should give a nice
profit

There isn't really any need to keep adding extra
strategies.

If something is working consistently just keep
doing that.

What more is needed?

[kiravon]

Interesting one here. Nice potential on the 1H
a possible +175 pips

but things not so great on the 5M.

Gator not open to upside but worse there are
two recent AIMS levels to contend with at +7 and
+17

Yes just a small 8 pip AIMS box but No Confidence here

17k.JPG

[kiravon]

Got to be realistic, we will not usually get +175 pips
on the H1 when we only want a 8 pip SL risk on
the M5

nice idea mind

but as we see, nice entry on the M5 but quite
predictably as soon as it hit the 7 pip prior
AIMS it reversed

We need trades with the potential to actually
go somewhere

If it had broken the prior 7 pip level it would
still have to have got past the 17 pip level

It was just a non starter at a glance

17n.JPG

[immy]

Great Analysis... I love this H1 / M5 stuff! don't forget Seed on H1 = M5 Setup 1...

[kiravon]

This is just a carbon copy of the last analysis
so not really worth reading

but its worth me repeating this twice, or two
hundred times if necessary until walking away
from trades is second nature to me

Here we have a very valid break of AIMS with
sleeping gator and a nicely retraced AO.

but where is this trade likely to go?

If the last two long attempts were beaten down
recently what confidence is there that it will be
any different this time?

Perhaps it will break through both barriers
but the probabilities are that one or the other AIMS
level will put the kibosh on the trade

If I hadn't had a trade in a few days would I be
seeing the charts more optimistically?

In for a penny...

Here's hoping....

wish me luck everyone!...

it's only money Rodney....

Third time lucky!....

You gotta be in it to win it!....

Might be worth a punt....

a better line might be -

I DON'T NEED TO TRADE THIS!

I really don't! I'm fast losing my taste for self inflicted rents

18.JPG

[kiravon]

Didn't even have the decency to move 8 pips
to get rejected by AIMS

The last two AIMS levels tell us the buyers are
clearly not in control here and lo and behold we have
a down move

but the H1 is still up and I am really not selling into purple

So down is equally as unconvincing as up!

To think of a useful analogy, and I'm sure its not original,
but when both options seem equally risky then its the
sort of trade that is about as compelling as tossing a
coin to decide on direction

In fact isn't that a useful analogy?

when we're really bogged down over a decision on
likely direction, ask myself, how more scientific, logical,
probable, valuable, useful is my analysis compared to
a toss of a coin?

If the honest answer is even slightly negative
but I proceed anyway, I deserve all the rent I get!

[kiravon]

For the avoidance of doubt....

This is all going out live

I don't know whats going to happen next

But we did have some momentum to the downside and
could have jumped in toward Purple

but for a possible 19 pips with a 15 pip SL?

a 1:1 RR

and a dead cert that we will get our 19 pips?

hardly

It looks to me like it wants to respect Purple and likely
reverse up

18c.JPG

[kiravon]

This Trade was never going anywhere!

Never even hit our TP, more likely reversed and hit our -15 SL!

Not even a very convincing Fruit

Wishy washy!

18d.JPG

[kiravon]

There's Fruit and there's Rotten Fruit!

Just a completely rubbish setup!

Actually all this naysaying is not enjoyable nor is it impressive
that someone can see losing trades a mile off unless he can
also spot the winners just as easily

but we do have to be fault finders

looking for the reasons why we should be preserving our capital

and maybe most of the time we will be declining rather than
investing

isn't that how dragon's den works? assuming its still aired.

these multi millionaires didn't get to be multi millionaires
by throwing their money away

they are cautious, extremely cautious and the refrain
'I'm out' is usually the order of the day

but have you not seen those times when they all get
enthusiastic, and they all can't get in fast enough

I think trading is much like that

18e.JPG

[kiravon]

But worth noting the new AIMS level is same level
as the last

This keeps happening!

It is therefore very unwise to ignore recent AIMS
levels, especially key levels that so often get
respected

Does the trade really have room to move?