Mickey's Journal

[immy]

Mickey!


First you had one great thing going on...
The post you created , a breath of fresh air each time

now we have another good thing going

You are trading really nice....

yours is one of the journals I look forward to checking EVERY NIGHT

[kiravon]

Structure and Movement
Thanks, and a good interchange on Michael's journal
about Structure and Movement

I think I've always known this but its good to see
it spelt out in black and white, and for me I
would say it probably is the number one inviolable rule

not that I don't violate every rule in the book but I
mean there is latitude with many rules but a setup
without structure and movement usually = heartbreak
and tears

I think possibly the second inviolable rule is both Gators
opened up in a channel formation AWAY from Purple

which of course is just AIMS jargon for let the trend
be your friend so not entirely original.

Entry is ideally on the Pullback and there are options
on this although both S1 AND S2 both work well
particularly if you are selective. I have just
reinstalled the AA indicator which I believe
could also be a good filter for S2s

Lately I have been doing quite well on exits which
is encouraging as exits can so easily be where
you give everything back - and more!

Ideally I've always loved trading momentum, even
though it is a little stressful but I have always found
it extremely accurate when trailing bars in that when I
do get stopped the price is invariable reversing at that
point. and getting out at the right time is a very big
part of trading success

I've just traded the break out on the AUDUSD
It is currently retesting AIMS but there is definitely
structure and movement and confluence of HTF

If I had to make a criticism I think I've entered a bit
late into Wave 5, in fact I think I identified the start
with AA and had I been around to take that apple I
would be 60 pips by now - but can't be in front of
the screen 24/7

btw I've attached screenshot of the Apple leading
into Wave 5 at the bottom of this post, it actually
makes sense to me but I am delusional in this area

7.jpg

Apple.jpg

[kiravon]

I want to go out so I have found the most obvious
resistance is likely to be on H4 43 pips away

I have moved SL which was a 28 pip risk to
just 8 pip risk giving a 1:5 RR trade and I
believe a very reasonable chance of hitting TP

but if not I pay 8 pips rent. what of it?

7b.jpg

[kiravon]

The -8 wouldn't have been so bad but for no
other reason than a sudden attack of
overconfidence I added on with
a SL of 12

Both stops were hit so what should have
been a modest -8 rent became a completely
self inflicted and avoidable -20

ok its not so bad but there are many reasons
we end up losing on a trade and stupidity
shouldn't be one of them!

There has to be a very good and compelling
reason to add on

so far virtually all the add ons I've added on
seem to precipitate price reversal

in other words an add on must meet as
much criteria as the initial entry, and believing
in your own invincibility evidently is not
sufficient in itself

Hopefully I'll make +200 pips tomorrow

Sequence 1
C1 -2 DS1
C2 -30 -16 @ 0.05 = -23 DS 0
C3 +22 SL 7 DS 1
C4 -8 SL 8 DS 1
C5 -12 SL 12 DS 0 invalid add on
C6 -28 SL 28 DS 0 attemped to trade EW only

[kiravon]

Forget about making +200 pips!

according to my EW calculations I should be
able to pick up an easy +550 pips on H4 if I
get in early enough on Wave 5

So I'm just waiting for the right AA to appear
and I'm in!

Money for old rope!

perfect wave 5.jpg

[kiravon]

My Dream Trade!

at least I can see it in my mind's eye, around 50 pip SL
with the potential to run for 500 - 700 pips!

Without the AA indicator I don't think I would find ewaves
particularly helpful, only together do they start to make
any sense to me, only then can I look at the chart again
and what was just a blurry haze suddenly makes a
modicum of EW sense. I see the AA and work back
to the start of what must be Wave 4

Then I see there was a down move preceding that
and ewaves does seem to label it '3'

So all I have to do is locate the peak of Wave 4
and get in on Wave 5

I suspect it may not be so easy in practice
but its worth monitoring until I can readily
spot such wave formations

Some can do this easily, within seconds,
some can't do it at all

I know many highly profitable traders and
teachers who freely admit it just isn't their
thing, they just don't get on with it

I am not determined to meet the challenge
nor to be some EW expert

I just think it would be useful to be able to
identify the likely start of a Wave 5, and
then of course wait for a valid entry setup.

Its only one tool in the toolbox and it isn't
the most accessible but I remember a time
when I couldn't understand anything at all

Even expressions 'long' and 'short' were baffling
when some pundit would say 'we're short on
our long term positions' I was just totally
bewildered. Even pivot points did my head in
initially, and Fibonacci took me a long time
to figure out how to actually use the retracement
tool. Of course over time all these things just
become routine, you do it without thinking.

So I'm not particularly embarrassed to admit
I can't always see what number the wave is
as its just another hurdle to overcome

doubtless in the future I will cringe with
embarrassment but thats not important

The idea of the five waves either impulsive
or corrective is easy to understand, but
actually identifying them numerically isn't

I have probably trialled about a dozen EW
indicators and all were pretty much useless
and extremely inconsistent, numbers would
repaint and change routinely

so you likely cannot sit back and rely on some
magic indicator, as with all indicators they
will never make you money in themselves

You have to learn to read the charts.
Identifying Elliott Waves is just a part
of that process.

but this is how I would like to see EW
pan out to my advantage. What will
actually happen may be a different matter
entirely

but the goal is to narrow the gap between
mental expectation and actual reality, with
regard to Elliot waves and trading generally
for that matter

dream trade.jpg

[kiravon]

Even as I was pounding on my typewriter
things were moving ahead!

An engulfing Doji emerged and may be significant,
and its especially encouraging to see the AO peaking

Just waiting for the next AA to appear

dream trade2.jpg

[kiravon]

In the meantime watching EU...

confluence of TFs, will wait for price to break H1 AIMS and
hope to enter on the Pullback. we'll see

8.jpg

[kiravon]

But GU is ready to go now!

I've entered GU so will be very cautious about entering EU
now as this could be too much exposure. I am very alert
to the dangers of too much exposure.

I remember one mentor describing a cool way to increase
profits six fold on six simultaneous correlated currencies, yes
of course chf often moves conversely when eu moves and also
reverses when eu reverses so unless you are splitting your
position size by six you are asking for some horrific losses -

and watching six charts simultaneously and trying to bail out
on all of them quickly is far from stress free!

I picked up an indicator on a Nigerian trading site which was a
lot of fun. It was based on fib I believe and plotted the red zone
where price previously had reversed at resistance and the blue
zone where it had reversed at prior support.

It often worked very well, but I noted there were many times when
so many currencies in the red zone would all start dropping at the
same time and I would make hundreds of pips, but when things did
go wrong it often went wrong on many of them!

So to me correlation trading is about as suicidal as add on trading,
yes I'm sure they both have merit but learning to walk before
you can run has far greater merit

I am more than happy with just a few really nice wins a month
and a few small rents and any amount of BE's are neutral so
can't hurt me.

8b.jpg

[kiravon]

Crisis of Conscience!

I got out of my Long position on GU very abruptly for BE

You know trading is not for the bird brained!

I had already established ( in my own mind at least )
that GU was in Wave 4 on the higher TF and I was
waiting for the corrective Wave 4 to peak and to
go short on Wave 5. It really seemed to be imminent.

But now I seem to have forgotten all that and am
expecting corrective Wave 4 to continue up for
another 300 pips.

so I seem to be limping on two opinions

which will be right, which will be wrong? well its
quite likely that this last aborted trade will continue
up for a while at least and then reverse into Wave 5.

but as a matter of principle someone of my genuinely
limited insight and experience should not be buying
into the likely final phase of Wave 4 if I am expecting
a big Wave 5 move down! unless of course I'm not
really sure about all this wave 4 AA stuff

exactly right, I'm not sure about all that stuff, so what
is the right thing to do in this situation?

Exactly what I have done - get out! If I am not
completely sure of what I'm doing - don't do it!

ALWAYS act in my own best interests. I am by
no means sure what my best interests are here
so walk away!