Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Since Last post price has gained momentum and
is up +30 pips

Someone like Immy, fleet of foot, could have been
in and out with impunity

I remember that from the Skype room but my fleet of
foot invariably wasn't fleet enough and I would often
mess up big time where others called it spot on

In this case I have some ambivalence

Am I happy missing out on a quick 30 pip+ win. no I'm not
happy with that

but I've rechecked the charts and it really does look like
we are about to hit a reversal into a Wave 5 down

so for me to be buying ( not others necessarily ) but for
me to be buying at this point is still newbie mentality
even if I do make +300 pips I'm basically hoping for
a lucky momentum upmove even after my analysis is
telling me the exact opposite

My analysis may be wrong and if it involves EW it very
likely is wrong but that is absolutely not the point!

If everything is indicating price is most likely to make
a big move down and I decide to trade up anyway
then there is some serious conflict going on here

This is about as unprofessional as it gets

but I say I'm ambivalent because there is a chance that
before long the price may well reverse in which case
I will be very pleased that I had the courage of my convictions
and got out of a trade even though it seemed to be doing very
well.

[kiravon]

Price reversing down on M15 with momentum

I should note the disparity between M15 and H4,
it should not be surprising they seem to be doing
different things

So I am still in anticipation of a valid AA on H4 but
in the meantime M15 could go either way, it could
pullback to Green and then move up, or it could even
sync with H4 and continue the reversal down

8d.jpg

[kiravon]

Fools rush in where angels fear to tread!

Lesson learnt! I did indeed rush in when I saw
the burst of upward momentum on M15 but it came
down as quickly as it went up!

It may now continue up again, thats not important

Whats important is avoiding impulsive knee jerk reactions
which may or may not end up with a profit

Ironically, when I jumped out of that last knee jerk trade
I didn't exactly break even, I made a small profit of 1 grosse
(where 100 grosse = 15 pence). but even that paltry win is
more than I deserved!

8e.jpg

[kiravon]

Monitoring H1/H4

The M15 is not really relevant to H4 anymore than
H4/M1 would bear much relation to each other

so I have switched to H1/H4 and it really looks
at the moment as though a Bearish Divergent
Candle could be forming on H4 which should trigger
an AA alert. I will know in about 90 minutes.
It might be wise to grab something to eat
and go out for a walk or something. I think
I've had a bit too much activity and screentime

Seriously I am not expecting to win +550 pips
on a fresh Wave 5 move but if it turns out
that we do get a Wave 5 down and it is
discernable not just in hindsight I will
be extremely pleased and it should mark
a milestone in my trading education, or at least
the beginnings of a milestone.

I certainly feel I've been to school today

8f.jpg

[kiravon]

All the Above, - it happened again!

This is getting tedious now. price came down
and formed a Bearish Engulfing Candle

so even though for some technical reason an AA
fruit did not appear, nevertheless there seemed
good reason to expect the downward momentum
to continue, hopefully into a Wave 5.

It didn't. Once again it reversed back up again
with some gusto. Yes it could now look like
a pullback and price is still moving up

but I am far from in the zone!

All the while I am giving credence to Elliott Wave
theory ( not fact ) I am going to stay in this
state of trading confusion. It is seriously
hampering me now not helping me.

So however compelling a buy trade might seem
I am too frightened to trade into Wave 4

But who says its Wave 4, thats only my
half baked opinion.

and if two failed AAs appeared previously
why did one not appear at the big bearish
engulfing candle? That surely should have
triggered an AA.

I remember Ray's advice to keep out of Wave 4
just never trade into purple

but if you are looking for confluence of TFs
that will mean trading away from purple
on both TFs.

If I stick to that as a rule that might be all the
EW I ever need to get by. I don't want to trade
Wave 4s. Problem is I wouldn't normally
recognize one with any degree of certainty

so I'll stick with Ray's caution until someone
tells me something better

8g.jpg

[kiravon]

I play the guitar...

not Eric Clapton exactly but I can play the guitar
and have done since I was 14.

Many years ago I had a friend named Keith and
we would go to local pubs to watch local bands
play

We both loved the live music, the atmosphere -
everything!

Keith was enthralled by live music even though
he couldn't play a note and didn't really know
one end of a guitar from the other

One evening I went to his apartment and there
was Keith with a new bass guitar and amplifier

He was just playing up and down the bass E string
with very little regard to what the metal frets were
there for. You place your finger just behind the fret
before playing the note. Keith hadn't quite grasped
the concept

However Keith wasn't completely satisfied with his
performance so he did what all the pro bassists did,
and Keith knew you had to do this because they
always did it

yes Keith adjusted the machine heads at the end of
the neck that are responsible for the tension and
the tuning of the strings

I just couldn't believe that day one Keith had progressed
to tuning his instrument!

I asked him, ' Keith, what are you doing with the machine heads?'

He had no clue what he was doing. He wasn't trying to tune
the instrument. He knew they needed adjusting but he had
no concept of tuning or that the reason these guys were always
adjusting them between songs was because the heat or humidity
of the venue was causing the strings to detune.

He was just trying to be the same as the pro players.

All he knew is that you were meant to twiddle these knobs
at the end of the neck, evidently for no particular reason

Keith came to mind today even though I haven't seen him
in years

I think Keith's grasp of the mechanics of the bass guitar
in many ways resembles my comprehension of Elliot Wave
theory

I can actually sound at times a little like someone who
routinely uses EW as part of their trading but the truth
is I have a mental block, a hole in my EW cognizanze
the size of Blackwall Tunnel!

When you really get it I accept it might be quite useful,
but unfortunately if you don't get it EW can soon become
a stressful liability as I have experienced today

About the only criticism you will ever find of AIMS is that
it isn't as simple as it pretends to be

That simply isn't true!

AIMS is very simple

What isn't simple is all the convoluted EW discussion amongst
the EW aficionados - albeit simple to them

I read this on a leading EW Forum and this is a testimonial from a
satisfied client!

“Elliot wave must be one of the most difficult trading analysis to master
and I know of professional traders that still after years of trying to analyse
the markets using Elliot wave or similar analysis method battle to get it right.
.... Just being able to count the different wave degree is an extremely difficult
skill to master never mind using that skill to execute your trades successfully.''

Yesterday I finally took the trade into the new 'Wave 5' on the strength of the Bearish
engulfing candle

but since when do any of us trade elliott waves? and that is effectively all
I was really attempting to do, the trade had no regard to anything else at all.
so not surprisingly I lost 25 pips.

But after a good night's sleep the fog and the pessimism has cleared somewhat.

How can you tell the difference between a new wave 5 and a corrective wave
within the existing wave 4? How do you really know that wave 4 has ended?

You don't!

Hence the very telling quote above

Hence this is why we don't trade EW

It is unreliable in the extreme!

I admire those that seem to have the aptitude to incorporate it
into their trading decisions but I suspect very few traders are
able to do this successfully.

In the years ahead I may be one of them but for the present
time I am still Keith twiddling knobs aping the pros, clueless
as to what he is doing.

Recognizing this will save me a great deal of frustration, stress
and money

In the meantime I need to play to any strengths I may have
developed and hone these skills

All we know for sure is that anything that consistently stresses you
out and prevents you from relaxing and enjoying trading is not
going to improve your profits - quite the reverse!

That much is guaranteed!

8g.jpg

[kooky]

Incredably bloody well said Mickey my friend, you have a way with words I can only aspire to.

[kiravon]

Looking at AUDUSD and Gators Opened up

Waiting for the pullback and retest of AIMS on M15, if a setup appears
it may yield up to 50 pips. Mood is cautious today

9.jpg

[kiravon]

'' Incredibly bloody well said ''

I don't know Kooky, I'd say you have quite a way with words yourself!

[kiravon]

A slight change of plan..

I have entered with a negative RR of 28:15 but looking at
the H4 it becomes positive 28:71 with a view to moving
stop up as soon as possible