Murph's Trading Journal

[MagicMurph]

Friday Oct 9th 2015

I want to print screenshots of trades that I "might" of took but was advised against it in the room or trades that I took which I shouldn't. It is important not to have an ego and not be scared of being laughed at etc, that you learn the most. Well I do anyway so if this helps anyone else then I am veryo happy.

I took this trade on the 09:34 candle but that was 7:34am BST and I should wait until LO at 8.00am

[MagicMurph]

Friday Oct 9th 2015 (comment)

My opinion we had a setup. But Immy said he would rather see a green bar retreat to the greebn/red line and THEN see a seed.

[MagicMurph]

Fri Oct 9th 2015

I thought was a potential trade but Immy said he was more interesested in the earlier dark bars. Also there was a 38% pullback on the m5 chart. It is important to keep my eyes on the direction of the m5 and enter/exit on the m1.

[MagicMurph]

Fri Oct 9th 2015

I seemed to have missed the TP on this trade and was taken out at BE. Others in the room got out for 2% So I changed my buffers in the Automated Trading Manager to 1 x spread.

[MagicMurph]

Fri Oct 9th 2015

This is interesting as I would of taken this trade. Immy said that they didnt take this seed as the move up was too impulsive. The lesson here is that if a counter move is less impulsive than the original one, then we have a HIGHER probability that counter move is correction.

[MagicMurph]

Fri Oct 9th 2015

This was a correct setup and I did nothing wrong it seems. I got out for BE

[MagicMurph]

Fri Oct 9th 2015

I entered this trade and paid rent. Immy said that I shouldn't be trading in between LO and NYO sessions as there is NO VOLATILITY.

Immy's comments ...
The Time of Day and the presence and absence of volatility is a major factor in trading the m1. If you ignore this you will decrease your chances of success. Some one said the other day, if we are looking for 2R only (and its often hit) should we trade all the seeds for the rest of the day?
The answer lies in understanding probabilities. When it comes to assessing the risk of a trade most traders focus only on the risk reward ratio says Wilcox in his Trading Plan template pdf. (look this up later)

So if you take all the seeds, the seeds that don't conform to the rules do NOT have 33% probability of being a winner and 33% of being a BE ... rather it has more than 60% chance of being a loser.
You might see a SEED with only 1R risk and possibility of 4R win and you'll be excited but if
1. There is lack of volatility
2. Lack of momentum and hence the structure
3. and it’s not following rules ….94
there is an 80% probability of -1R being hit.
Message: We need volatility and momentum and stick to the rules .. trade during the LO and NYO only.

[MagicMurph]

Fri Oct 9th 2015

The guys talk always of Patience and Discipline (PD). Here is a trade I missed because I didnt have the discipline to keep watching the chart but a good setup / opportunity was missed.

[MagicMurph]

Fri Oct 9th 2015

Again I would of jumped into this trade but the guys said NO. The market was TOO VOLATILE

[MagicMurph]

Friday Oct 9th 2015

Here is an example of a good setup when when I placed the pending order, it became invalid as the price first rose to the SL. So no trade.