Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Two nice seeds are encouraging, the
overall feel is very bullish but how
much mileage is a bit speculative.
Just stay in the moment and adapt
where necessary

9c.jpg

[kiravon]

A very typical Trading Scenario..

and no, Its not just me!

The original gameplan was very well thought out,
you had Gators opened up on three TFs, positive AOs
moving in right direction and above ZL. Two nice seeds

you had a burst of Bullish momentum away from AIMS
and Gator which in itself was fine but it rendered the RR
28:15. a negative ratio win a fiver for every tenner you risk.

So the prudent plan was to wait for the pullback to give
a far more viable RR

but I 'knew' the chart was looking very bullish, and that
it might not pullback

so I jumped in before the pullback

It then did pullback very predictibly

So once again Zero for discipline score which
is becoming a regular feature on my T20 records
these days, along with consecutive rents

So the typical trading scenario is when the trader
figures it all out, makes a well reasoned decision
on when to enter..

and then just throws caution to the wind and
jumps straight in anyway!

This is actually in principle why the Turtle experiment
failed even though the system was proven

Most just couldn't stick to the rules to save their life

9d.jpg

[kiravon]

C1 -2 DS1
C2 -30 -16 @ 0.05 = -23 DS 0
C3 +22 SL 7 DS 1
C4 -8 SL 8 DS 1
C5 -12 SL 12 DS 0 invalid add on
C6 -28 SL 28 DS 0 attemped to trade EW only
C7 -28 SL -28 DS 0 didn't wait for PB, invalid entry

DS 3/7 = undisciplined most of the time
wins/losers = 1/6 losing most of the time

[immy]

Turtle Experiment Passed with flying colours! But not the traders! Majority of them failed as expected. Exceptional Market Wizards are BORN good traders can be created and nurtured! Smaller portion by nature larger by nurture! but both this larger and smaller are a very smaller proportion of the overall size of traders! IMHO... have a good weekend

[kiravon]

Yes I think thats probably what I meant although having since read up a bit
I'm not sure how many succeeded or failed. I read twenty succeeded and
made around 100% per year and only three were dropped from the program.

but previously I thought the majority failed due to not sticking to the rules.

But this is interesting if true and I don't doubt it -

turtles.jpg

So we're back to consistency again - as always!

So just how hard was it to be a successful Turtle?
I believe you had a choice of two very similar systems,
the simplest being the breakout of the 55 day high or low

This apparently where most losing Turtles went wrong,
although looking at my adaptation of that, ie enter at
break of high/low of last 55 days it really wouldn't seem
that difficult-

turtle setup.jpg

But even when they got that right, an incredible amount
of discipline was needed as exit was at high/low of last 20
days which would often mean watching most or all of your
profits evaporate in anticipation of the very few really big moves
from which most of the profits would come

Briefly reading up on this, one of the most simple but proven,
tried and tested systems, just proves beyond any shadow
of a doubt that there is nothing difficult about trading strategies,
the difficulty for most is simply sticking to the rules religiously
week in week out

There is actually a free expert advisor that does it all for you
enter and exit with stop set according to the rules

I'm wondering if like AIMS it would work equally well on all TFs,
theoretically it should do. On the other hand I think its one of those
higher TF system that is really looking for those exceptionally high RR
trades that you don't get on M1 and M5 for example.

I'm just curious, not looking for a better system, already I can see
AIMS is potentially more lucrative and is far more stress free.

[kiravon]

Its nice when a few things seem to be in agreement

Something that may or may not resemble a Famous setup,
an impulse wave on H1 and 5 of 3 or 5 of 5 on M15, yes
wonders will never cease I do get the very broad concept
except need to wait for flat after Asian session, but I dont
think its beyond my grasp

but an S1 on M15

A Cherry Seed on H1

Even an M15 AA Fruit very recently supporting the Cherry Seed
or the CS as we Pros call it

If it actually hits PO it might actually go somewhere

[kiravon]

Proximity is Power!

I've been reading up on Famous Sam which is an enthralling read,

What Jay Abraham's said was this ( he's a billionaire by the way so
worth listening to ) - 'Don't take notes, just keep listening
to the CDs over and over and just let my teachings be absorbed
naturally', - in other words the unconscious mind knows what it
needs to take from the material

I did that and virtually none of his lessons were of any practical
use to me in a UK setting, - he was very American in his
marketing style.

but one thing, and maybe only one expression stuck in my mind
'the strategy of pre eminence' I absolutely got that! and when
I started speaking to my clients in a way that subtly conveyed
that under my modest manner I was probably one of the most
experienced legal practitioners in my field my profits really soared.

But that life changing lesson was unconsciously absorbed from his
teachings, not consciously or studiously learned

I think reading and re reading Mark Douglas works in much the
same way - some of his truths are needed and absorbed by
the unconscious more than others, or perhaps some lessons
are more needed at different times. How true the adage -

'When the student is ready the teacher appears'

There is absolutely no question in my mind that 99% of
the value of AIMS membership is absolutely not the
indicators although they are extremely helpful, but
the value is in this journal section.

Just poring over the charts and thinking processes
of our guys who generously document everything
is an absolute gold mine!

We have several such guys and many more in the
chrysalis.

'Proximity is power'

If you keep watching, reading every little thought
and trading insight of someone who is making 60%
a month guess what will eventually happen?

Something has to happen - there will be those
lightbulb moments that will take your trading to the
next level

So thanks to Sam and others, I was up very late
last night reading and reading

and after a string of stressed out, undisciplined rents
I seem to have a nice trade now on EU, and I've just
moved SL to BE on GU trade so I feel the week is
off to a good start

I only meant to post GU chart, the essay just came
out of nowhere, - actually that's not strictly true, it
had all been percolating during my sleep after reading
over the journals

11c.JPG

[kiravon]

My EU trade was stopped for +20 and
almost straightaway I took the AA

risk is a minimal 3 pip SL and who knows what the
reward could be?

OK I was just stopped for -3 and the reward would
likely have been +17 up to next AIMS level

but I'm still watching as it looks like a W5
and I'll take any supporting setup.

12 aa.jpg

[kiravon]

Interesting!

Typical Fruit!

but interesting to see price is resting on Purple on 5M
and on Green on H1

Still watching

12 w5.jpg

[kiravon]

Educational!

Some of my unanswered Ewave queries now being answered.

The W5 has failed and Ewaves is now indicating that we
therefore must still be in W3. The W4 in black circle must
indicate an invalid W4 - this was what I was missing
and answers why looking in retrospect W3 goes into
W5 and then back to W3

It simply means the W4 and new W5 were invalid or
a false reading.

That's quite helpful to know

failed w4.jpg