Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

All Trades from October 28th

Yes I was vaguely aware there can be a difference
and a good example above, a 1:4 perceived RR as
there appeared to be no obvious resistance but the
reality turned out to be completely different.

It got 80% to TP then just reversed. I probably should
have checked the LTF and if there was any reversal
signal closed the trade for a very healthy 1:2 profit
----------------------------------------------------
Two trades this morning on GBPJPY
The first was M5 H1 PIB that didn't work out
but I still felt price would continue down as
confluent H4 and respected red twice on H1
but I feel that either I or the market needed
a bit more space to play out.

2nd trade is H1 H4 S2 PO with entry under the current
bar that has already broken AIMS and is now retesting
it. When it comes down again it should be stronger for
the retest. Potential RR is 1:3 and yes,it's good to be
clear that anticipated RR is just a guide as to whether
the trade is worth taking, and like EW nothing is carved
in stone

Regarding my string of nine losers the good news is that
I am not affected at all, maybe for the first time I am
not even thinking at all 'what should I change?' 'why is
it all going wrong etc?'

at least four of the rents were likely due to my extensive
reading of Bill Williams over the weekend. It seems I was
trying to trade knowing without knowing how I know

when in fact I really didn't know

Its a most thought provoking book particularly how psychotherapists
can't usually solve your problems you just eventually outgrow them.
I think I always knew that actually, the best cure for such problems
is usually a bigger problem.

but the whole thing about Structure 1, the linear, left brain problem
solving your way to progress mentality, what Brian Tracy refers to as 'the
psychology of becoming' was very illuminating because its true, you never
solve all your problems in life or in trading

Phil Collins alluded to that when he noted ' money doesn't solve your
problems, it just replaces them with new problems'

so likewise, new systems, indicators or even tweaks do not solve our
trading problems, they just rearrange them.

but I can confirm that emptying your mind and moving over to
'brainless trading' has not been quite as successful as I had hoped

but I'm quite heartened in my belief that I don't need to learn
anything more technically. and Bill does make the very welcome
point that the ability to count waves is not necessary at all.

I'm glad! whilst my understanding of EW is quite clear now
I can only see the respective levels the waves reached in hindsight
which to me is as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

Actually trading doesn't need to be any more complicated than
following the S1 setup which is very simple and very profitable.

Bill Williams is probably recognized as a trading genius and he knows
a thing or two about algorithms and sophisticated indicators but he
concurs 100% with Mark Douglas that 'trading is an inside job'

and I especially like the analogy to musical improvisation in which
yes, you do indeed need to know quite a lot, practice a lot, but
when it comes to the actual performance you just hand over to the
right brain and you just play without thinking so to speak, you
are just 'in the zone'

I can actually do that!

and applying that now to trading is the only way forward

so Trades 17 and 18...

Trade 17

28b.jpg

Trade 18

28c.jpg

Trade 19 I opened for a somewhat spurious reason
Now that my records are squarely based on account %
I will obviously need to enter the correct position size which
so far I haven't done

it would actually take me a long time and I am probably
a good prospect for a trade manager which typically
cost upward of $15 per month and may well be worth it

Most of the free calculators the brokers and Babypips provide
are pretty naff as you still have to enter a lot of information

but I've found a brilliant free money manager that does everything
a subscription trade manager does except you just need
to enter the lot size yourself and pull the trigger.

Personally I would probably only pay for a trade manager
if I was using M1 as literally every second counts there.

so with a $3,085 demo account with 1:1 RR I was told to
enter 0.30 lot size based on my Stop range so I will
literally win or lose $31

I'm actually very excited about that because I wasn't
sure how I was going to cope with all the lot calculations etc

Trade 19 was a little unusual but it was a DB that followed
a railway track reversal pattern

Trade 19

money manager.jpg

Three more consecutive losing trades. I went to sleep during
the last one.

I have introduced time spent into my results column as altogether
I was at the computer for about six hours today. too much!

I have lost the last eleven trades at a time when I have never
been so serious or intense about trading

over five weeks in the summer I made over 600 pips and I
wasn't even trying.

overtrading and over trying is taking away rather than
adding to my profits.

but I am very pleased about installing my Money Manager,
I feel complete now. That has been a great weight off my
mind.

Hopefully from November things will really turn around,
actually over the last T20 (19) I am still in profit despite
losing nearly all the time. so I am not discouraged.

very nice setup appeared on AUDUSD. even though I\m over my limit
and score zero for discipline. it is RAO DB PLUS S2 and I just caught
the momentum
subsequently retraced 50% so placeTP
150% fib exp.

Trade 20

28e.JPG

29th October
My first trade for Thursday is very exciting, the NZDUSD RAO PIB
which for first time I have split into two 0.5% risk which is
0.06 lot size each

One I will place a TP at a little over 1:1 and the other I will
leave to run as the the 200 SMA is interesting on both
the H1 and the D1. On the Daily it is a very straight
forty five degree angle down, whereas on the hourly
it is more of a gradual arc that reached a smooth
symmetrical zenith and then formed a perfect
arc now indicating it's descent

Of course that in itself is not a setup but it is
enough for me to split the position to see where the
second half may LEAD

Trade 1 Split positions 2 x 0.5%

29.JPG

I like this setup on EU H1 D1, it's a 38.2% retracement of a very strong move down
My signal is the PIB but my entry is a little late and is actually placed under the
level of previous bar that crossed up through Red. I have split the positions, one half
to exit just above TZ1 and the other half just above 138.2% Fib expansion.

This is a very neat, picture perfect trade. not that has anything to do with it's
winning but it may have much to do with improving my winning attitude.

I have certainly experienced a paradigm shift since reading Bill Williams and
nothing to do with technicals whatsoever

I can't over estimate what a transformation I'm experiencing at this moment
with my open trades. I am actually proud of them! I had a very good
feeling about them before taking them - despite hot on the heels of eleven
losing trades!

I don't ever remember losing eleven before on the trot

but it has been a very liberating experience, it just doesn't hurt anymore

Reminds me of a girl I met at an hypnosis workshop. She was from a rough part
of Scotland and had been to boxing lessons and had become acclimatised
to punches in the face

She told me how psychologically and emotionally liberating it was for her.

I didn't really get it at the time as I had a much higher value on a straight
and more ascetically pleasing nose

but I think I know what she means now

In her shoes, the stress of going out and never knowing who might attack her
but now the inner strength of knowing she could take it and give as good as
she gets

Trade 2

29 eu.JPG

Trade 3

Next trade was EURGBP H1 H4

Again a very strong move that retraced 38.2% giving a
DB as entry signal. Entry was late but justified as RR
on two half positions is 1: and 1:3 ie TZ1 and Fib exp. 138.2%

Quite a nice looking trade

29 eg.JPG

Trade 4 JPY H1 H4 MB

A nice setup on the USDJPY, a strong move followed by 50%
retracement exactly. Placed 0.5% TP at 1:1 RR just under prior
resistance and also 0.5% just under 150% Fib exp.

29 jap.jpg

Trade 5 is Brilliant on the EG M5

Its retraced 61.8% Fib respecting 200 SMA and in case of any doubt
has formed a PIB!

Win or lose this is the sort of Setup I should be waiting for!

[kiravon]

A WINNING T20 despite 12 Consecutive Losers!!!

How exciting is that!!

The following may be the only thing worth reading in my entire journal!!

My last trade on AUD went wrong due Divergence but I had already reduced the
SL from 50 to 13, thereby reducing the initial risk of 1% to just 0.25%. Unlike
Grant and Michael I didn't bother reducing SL on the other trades as I was
preoccupied with other aspects. Big Mistake!

If I had been able on average to do this on all my losing trades ie reduce the 1% SL
to 0.25 SL instead of winning 0.15% over the 8 days I would have made 6%!

Which is Pro Rata 16% per month!! even allowing for a weak 25%
Strike Rate and runs of 12 consecutive losers!!

Losers are unimportant whereas Risk Management is Critically Important!

30 sum.jpg

This worthy of appending from Michael's journal today -

Periods like recent two weeks with many failed or invalidated signals show very clearly that
1. we are well protected by our risk- and money-management with max.1% pos size and daily,
weekly and monthly stop levels
2. we need to continue following our plan STRICTLY without changing system after a series of
rents. I'm even more strict at following my rules during "more difficult" periods.
The best thing after "surviving" such periods is the huge gain of confidence and trust into our system.

Some very profound Truths from Michael, who has been quite helpful also in formulating my
Trading Plan in Mk2 I will likely include instruments traded as EU, GU, AU, UC, NU, EG. UJ. EJ. GJ

Trading Plan.pdf

[kiravon]

Teething Problems

Absolutely nothing for me London Open but GU is extremely dormant
sleeping last 43 bars, it could be a nice S1 in direction of HTF

I have split the position to 2 x 0.5% with first hard TP at 1:1
and the second under TZ1 and under BRN and under prior
Resistance zone on H1 which is still a little over 1:2 - perfect

We just need price to break out in the right direction!

Nice new Demo account with nice new opening balance.

Interesting just how quickly we forget our resolve and throw
caution to the wind!

Both my TPs were hit as price gapped up.

Seeing the momentum break I jumped in very quick with a further 0.5%

To my credit I did keep the risk to the minimum.

Not to my credit I completely disregarded all my safeguards -it was
an impulse trade!

and what happened? price had already hit my hard TP which was
placed there for a reason, just under prior resistance zone

and sure enough price didn't want to break through that but reversed
and stopped me out for 0.5%

Still up by 1% but that is absolutely not the point

The point is my very first trade since uploading my trading plan
is awarded a monumental 0 for discipline

That is not a good start!

So what really went wrong?

Simply I needed to pop over to shop to get some breakfast but
I was waiting for the breakout

Anticipating I might be gone ten minutes I put two hard TPs in
place which were very sensibly placed

but I didn't go out, The PO's were triggered and I was in.

I would normally have cancelled the second TP in favour
on trailing momentum which would have been my first choice

but before I could do that the price gapped hit my TPs and looked like
it might run for another 100 pips so I quickly jumped in with another 0.5%
position with a view to trailing.

In other words I was trying to rectify my mistake of not cancelling the
second TP.

But it was too late to do that. Placing my second TP wasn't a mistake.

The answer? Quite simply to be more organized (see Immy's excellent
video on planning in advance to avoid stress )

That said, I watched it and it obviously didn't help me as I forgot the
lesson almost immediately!

I should have had breakfast and have been totally focused on the trade

then probably have decided to place a 1:1 RR hard TP and let the second
run with a view to trailing.

I would have made about the same as two hard TPs but the point is I should
have made a decision and stuck to it without the knee jerk reaction

Knee jerk reactions are not part of my trading plan


Trade 1

2.jpg

Trade 2

2c.jpg

First position Hard TP set at 1R and second left to run hopefully
to infinity

Reversed and Stopped out for 2 x 0.5% which apparently = 1.5%
yes I risked in total 1% of $10,100 and lost $150!!

So before I proceed any further I've got to get this sorted.
I don't know what the problem is, it might be my free money
manager not as mathematically accurate as it could be.

so Trade 3 is partly a test case.

Actually it is a very valid trade too but I've set SL at close to
10 pips away risking 1% and money manager says 0.97 pips Lot size
and actually says I will lose $99.53 if I lose

So I do not expect to lose another $150!!!

I really am trying to get everything right.

Fortunately it looks like Trade 3 NU is reversing too so hopefully I'll
get to the bottom of this.

Actually I just checked the HTF and its ranging, no opened Gators
so I wouldn't ordinarily have opened this trade. I have set both SL and TP
at 10 pips at 1% risk so I really should win or lose $100 and as this is
virtually the most important aspect of trading I'm not keeping T20
records or doing anything else until I get this down to perfection.

Its possible the money manager messed up on Trade 2 because it was EURGBP,
its a wild guess but is it using the same calculation that you would use on US?
That would account for the extra 50% incurred. If so it might mean I'm limited
to dollar currencies which may not be such a problem.

But I will do a lot of testing and maybe open a new Demo account

-----------------------

What I've done as a temporary workaround in installed my Money
Manager on a second computer and set the risk to 1.30%

Now if my guess is right it if I only trade JAP currencies on this
computer it should actually calculate at the rate of 1%

I've opened a trade on USDJAP at 1.30% risk, 10 pip TP, 10 pip SL
so it will be interesting to see what I actually win or lose.

We are definitely OK trading dollar currencies. That gives me EU, GU,
AU and NU

If I can re calibrate Money manager for the three JPYs - UJ, EJ and GJ
that will give me seven currencies to trade and should be more than
enough

It seems the problem was with the Money Manager only accurately
calculating Dollar but if I allow for the difference eg if risking 1% on
JPYs I actually enter 1.3% risk which in reality will equate to 1%

Similarly CAD is 1.2% and GBP is 0.6% for 1%

Its still doable as I can save the individual settings to each of the
currency templates. So I still have nine currencies to trade.

That should be plenty

So I start again Tomorrow

Trade 3

2d.jpg

[kiravon]

Rewards and Penance

To append to my Trading Plan Mk2

I have finally arrived at a plateau of congruency. I believe I am finally
clear on all that matters and all that doesn't

I have been involved in trading for some years now and its always
been ups and downs

many blind alleys

I've noted on forum after forum that the highly technical guys who are
so sophisticated and impressive invariably are the biggest losers. Yes they
know their stuff but they rarely can walk the talk.

btw I play keyboards. check youtube for guys playing keyboards -
the true muscians play on one keyboard only

the wannabees are hidden behind stacks of equipment - seriously!

more keyboards, more synthesizer modules, more effects processors
are all great toys but they are invariably compensation for total
lack of musical talent.

all the techno babble and/or flashy indicators follows much the same
psychological syndrome.

Trading is extremely simple. but the trading world is full of convoluted
twaddle. Like psycho babble, the world of psychology is full of it's own
jargon that the layman could never understand - but as Carl Jung
confesses, psycho therapists can't really solve any problems, the patient
simply has to outgrow his problem. That's certainly been my experience
and its not hard to understand, neither does that plain and simple truth
need to be couched in unfathomable terminology.

The problem is, when you aren't doing as well as you would like, you can
give in to self doubt and start to really question if you are mentally competent
enough to trade - like it's all too hard and confusing so that's why I'm failing?

The answer is yes you are mentally competent enough! and the reason you
may feel you aren't succeeding isn't because you lack intelligence, but rather
because you have allowed yourself to be psyched out by others ( who are not
usually aware of the effect that they may be having on you )

If there is a problem it is almost definitely psychological.

and if we are impressed with a genuinely profitable trader who uses all the
technical jargon - that can really confuse the issue! His profitability is because he
sticks to the rules of a very simple system, not because he has some
highly sophisticated technical ability which seems to be so way beyond
us.

Good psychology is essential, failure is guaranteed without it

Good money management is essential, failure is guaranteed without it.

Almost any trend following system will be profitable if the first two
requirements are in place.

If a healthy trend is moving up, wait for the retracement to buy low
and sell when price moves higher. It really is more or less as simple
as that. Indicators can definitely help but they are not essential.
Candlestick patterns can also be a reasonably good guide.

Similarly, there are many profitable Breakout systems which are even
simpler.

Once you have a robust and proven system such as AIMS, and any of the
AIMS strategies do definitely work....

but only with total focus and discipline.
and a daily journal and a seriously thought out Trading Plan

and expect to update the Trading Plan probably a few times.

My first Trading Plan is quite good but it is missing one essential
element

Some system of reward and penance to ensure I stay on the straight
and narrow.

I definitely don't need any technical help, that is an absolute red herring

but I still need far more discipline - if I was always 100% disciplined I
believe I would be quite consistently profitable.

So if I do not achieve a Discipline Score of at least 19/20 my penance is
to paint one of the walls in my apartment which is long overdue. If my
Discipline Score is 18/20 or less my penance is to spend two hours in
the gym - trust me I really don't want to do this!

If on the other hand my score is genuinely 20/20 my reward will be to
see a film or concert that I really want to see, and I won't go without
that score!

If I can actually be committed enough to make it 40/40 my reward will
be to spend two hours in the aromatherapy baths - that is something
I really would like, but I don't get to go if I mess up on even one of
forty trades!

Will I fake it to get my reward? Well no, my reward isn't really the
Baths, my goal is self mastery which I eagerly want to see reflected in
my trading. When I was ten years old I devised my own system for
learning the recorder. Whenever I made a mistake I would stop and
go right back to the beginning until I played the whole piece correctly.
This corrective training procedure was tedious but it kept me focused
and it worked! I did learn to play the recorder...

and what is quite interesting is that last year I picked one up in the
supermarket for about 80p. Just for nostalgia. When I got home I
took it out of its case and played 'Good King Wenceslas' quite fluently.

I hadn't played a recorder in over forty years!

Interesting. I learnt French, Spanish and Latin as a teenager and can
barely remember more than a few words now, but I can still remember
how to play the recorder! So childlike though it seems I believe
genuine rewards and punishments can really give us that extra
determination to get it right.

So furthermore, if I can be profitable 11/12 months I will reward myself with a trip
back to UK in the summer but I can never go home until I reach that level
of profitability

and I will never reach that level of profitability until I am totally disciplined in
my trading!

So the one thing missing in my Trading Plan last few years has actually been a
Trading Plan and the most essential part of the plan that will guarantee success
is to include some apparatus that will virtually guarantee that I stay on the straight
and narrow.

If someone was watching over me with a gun at my head I may not win more, but
I definitely wouldn't trade in a frivolous or impulsive way!

So I must hold my own gun to my head

I have to be serious about this!

at the same time really relax and enjoy the process

[kiravon]

November Trades

So a nice new Demo account with a $10,000 balance which I
will be protecting with my life!

Today at London Open I couldn't find anything. The one or two
possibilities involved walking straight into prior resistance at
a level far less than 1R - absolutely out of the question!

I did finally find something on EU on the H4. an S1 that offered a
potential 2R so I set two 0.5% POs which were triggered. S1 seemed
strange to me on H4 when I have been more accustomed to M1
breakouts previously in the Skyperoom.

The first position has a hard TP at 1R and the second is left open to run
and may likely stall at 2R but I am allowing for the possibility that
it may choose to run on. I don't know what the market will do.

My stated preferred TFs are M5/H1 and H1/H4

So is trading H4/D1 a breach of discipline? No, not at all.
I would be happy to trade the higher TFs, my only reservation
is that it would restrict the number of trades I will take in a
month. But today, taking one H4 trade is preferable to trading
zero H1 trades.

First position closed for 0.5% profit and now trailing the momentum on
M15 - it will end where it ends

My revised Trading Plan is much improved

Trading Plan.pdf

Trade 1 -
DS 1
0.42%,
0.37%
= 0.79%

3 res.jpg

Trade 2

DS 1
BE
BE

Trade 3
DS 1
-1%

4.jpg

Trade 4

At the moment I am favouring higher TFs because I need a bit
more time to make sure of Lot sizing etc.

This is a nice trade on the NU H1/H4 with hard TP at 1R and 5R
DS 1
-0.5%
-0.5%

5.jpg

Trade 5
DS 1
-0.5%
-0.5%

5b.jpg

Again could see nothing even on HTFs but I did like the M5 EU above
because of the bounce off Purple and 200SMA. However it was a bit
early in the trend and arguably not sufficiently established.

Adding more filters at this stage will drastically reduce the number of
trades but I might be able to compensate by adding a few more currencies
as IC are very good with spreads.

Of course if I am trading M5 it is not helpful to overwhelm myself with
the Tibetan yang or the Hungarian goulash for example so I must
be careful.

But Tracker has been kind enough to remind me of a few filters that
seem very well thought out.

and I have my own indicators now which help in addition to Grant's Seed.
I can't program but I have modified my indicators to be either bullish or
bearish which reduces clutter on the charts.

I will add something here later, but I am mindful that we can jump out of
the frying pan into the fire. I note how conscientious Tracker is with
observing all the filters which I like, but then I know about the trap
of the paralysis of analysis.

I know one mentor who I believe was a Nial Fuller Inside Bar trading
disciple. He was very good but always stressed you will never make
more than 4% per month. He rarely did. He was actually a very good
trader but he could always see some level ominously looming that
would prevent him from taking the trade.

One point that I really want to go to town on. not anything new by
any means but I am extremely impressed by Grant's grasp of the first
and prime rule of investing - Protect and preserve your account! He
probably has more BE's than anyone. and I note how many losers he
would incur if they weren't in place. I really need to implement this
strategy whenever I possibly can - move SL to BE as soon as 1R is reached.

Trade 6
DS 1
-0.1%

5c.jpg

Some Filters courtesy of Tracker

filters.jpg

filters 2.jpg

Trade 7

6.jpg

PO cancelled

Trade 8
+6% DS 1

6b.JPG

The USD CHF really took off! Methinks it's time to trail!
Switched down to H1 to ensure I lose as little as possible

One of the very few things I know I do well in trading
is trailing momentum

To the extent possible I should really play to me strengths
in other words be cautious with everything else and really
milk the momentum trades for all their worth!

6c.jpg

Trade 9

-1% DS 1

9aims.jpg

Same trade from a slightly different perspective

9aims b.jpg

Tuesday 10th H1/H4 Silver. perfectly sensible, perfectly disciplined
but after the thrill of my +2% 50/6 trade on the 'Our Guys are
Amazing ' post, well, nothing seems to be happening

Everyone says how that trading and Journal keeping teaches you
about yourself

I like trading Momentum, I need some action. On the other hand
I don't usually like M1 although that might change

So I am running two posts concurrently, not usually recommended
but I am not a frequent trader so no real problem.

I have no problem trading retracing Seeds and Divergence Bars
although twelve consecutive losers wasn't exactly inspiring!

but that might have been more to do with me than the system

it usually is

although I just realized that the last nine have been poor. One
good winner 6% seven losers and one meagre 0.7%

If trade 10 loses that is more or less just two winners from twenty?
That's really not great

Trade 10

It didnt lose! +1.5%

10.jpg

10b.jpg

Trade 11

Gold H1/H4
-1% DS 1 Stopped out by News Spike

12d.jpg

Trade 11
+1% DS 1

Break of Confluent M5/H1 AIMS. Strictly 1% win or lose
Good to get back to basics

13.jpg

13 b.jpg

I won but there was another 60 pips if I set TP st TZ1
and that would give me a 4% increase in bank

so what should I have done? why modest TP?

Here's why -

13 prior support.jpg

Prior Support, that's why!

I will probably only do one trade today, and I would have
liked another 10% like on my momentum thread

but its not about what I would like but what the market
makes available

It may run on but to ignore such a strong support zone
would be total stupidity
--------------------------------------

[immy]

Hi Mickey

Congratulations on completing your trading plan and thank you for posting/sharing it . Its a great achievement. 99.9% of consistently losing traders do not get to this point.

All good businesses have a formal well written detailed and objective trading plan. The most important part of any business plan is its section for longer term and shorter term goals and objectives. Usually those goals and objectives are a broken down into yearly, monthly and weekly targets. And then we discuss the methods that we believe will be used to achieve the goals.

You seem to have touched base on all of the above. I hope you have a more detaield version sitting at your desk printed and nicely "binded".

I wish you all the best. Now it will be very easy and quite objective to find out if you should score your trade DS 0 or DS1.

cheers

ps: And I'm sure you know that a periodic review of the plan will only make it better and better! My current trading plan, started off a scrap paper, turned into full A4 document and now sits at about 200 pages. all memorised ofcourse. (the Setup/The Fruit/The Seed ebooks all came out of my trading plan)

[Seabreeze]

Hi Michael

Just dropped in to say hi and wish you all the best with you new trading Plan. I look forward to reading your journal and thank you for sharing with us

[kiravon]

Some of our guys are just so amazing and their greatest gift
is convincing us that the impossible is possible!

Currently reading up on correlations and also very interested
in strategies such as below, as anything from Ray is usually
quite mind blowing. But not looking for anything
magical, just how it relates to what I already know or
think I know. My regular daily T20 trades are all in the
post titled ' November Trades ' - I'm not scattered in
my trading but neither can I remain static

btw anyone following Ray's posts last few weeks and the pips
he's amassing there is no question that he and his colleagues
are some of the most astute in the industry, but to me it's not
his EMA that is so outstanding as much as his mindset!

He absolutely exudes self confidence - and it's very infectious.
150 pips a month is very good - but 150 pips a day! and pretty
much taken as read!!

You absolutely have to believe in your strategy

I really want to distill the combined wisdom of a number of guys
I'm following and when I see 'unbelievable' results like 70%pm
and 7,600 pips per 5 days I just think ' Roger Bannister Syndrome'*
( *simply meaning no one believed you could run a mile in four minutes
until Roger did it, then everyone could do it, once they knew it was possible )


Some of our guys are just so amazing and their greatest gift
is convincing us that the impossible is possible!

Ray's 50/6 Strategy

Brilliant and simple +1%

9.jpg

Possible Long EU But I would want a clear break of AIMS and to
be on right side of Purple but trend is down

9c.jpg

-------------------

Coorelation currencies all strongly indicate EU is down, so would like
to see confirmation cross of 6EMA before going short

9e.jpg

I'm not trading EU as it is just ranging this morning. no structure
or movement btw it doesn't help to be fixated or blinkered -
price respecting, retesting, breaching Purple, now retesting Purple
again!!! Lets get real! the price doesn't even know Purple is
there! Nothing works or is certain all the time.

However I am in one of my 'knowing without knowing how I know' moods
today which is usually fatal.

This one is M1/M5 Dax having drawn a trendline on M5 waited for
Break of AIMS and cross of Zero on AO AND cross of 50/6
and quite an explosive movement followed!
-1% It stalled and reversed

9h.jpg

This was I have been waiting for today!

+4.75%

9k.jpg

That's 4.75% total Today! All I need to do now is repeat every day!
One rent at -1% each = -1% and two winners at 1% and 4.75% = +5.75%
Its all about the edge and only about the edge and the psychology of
absolute faith in the edge

and talking about edge....

I knew a long time ago that the cross of little and large could be quite
dynamic - but why?

well 50 EMA gives market direction and 6 EMA gives price direction
so the logical equation is that cross= price aligned with market

however that may not be quite as wise as it sounds

but what I may have noticed is something that resonates with
other successful strategies

is when 6 crosses over 50 and THEN crosses back again

I believe that is often the harbinger of a very dramatic move,
or at least I quite like the hypothesis

We have a good example of that today on the M15 Dax
+2%

10ray.jpg

it could possibly cross over a third time so I have bracketed
to allow for that

10ray b.jpg

Turns out to be a nice S1 as well when you switch Gator on,
so its nice to have that confluence

10ray b S1.jpg

I honestly believe Ray is onto a very good thing here, but I see
the challenge in the exit - some of these trades can really run!
but TZ1 gives 3.5% - nought wrong with that!

10ray c.jpg

But I always say trailing is my preferred choice, so
moving down LTF to trail on M5

10ray d.jpg

I think there's more to come!

10ray e.jpg

yes there was more! So let's see, trail or TP at TZ1?
I always find trailing leaves almost nothing on the table
but you do need momentum which I thinkis what this
strategy is all about

10ray f.jpg

Seems to be reversing and look at where we will likely
exit - We get out with almost the maximum available? we'll see

10ray g.jpg

We'll we were stopped for +2% - delighted with that, we
lost very little, no one can possibly milk the move for every last pip

but now the question, is is reversing or might it still continue
down to TZ1 which would have been 3.5%?

I think the move is over, that's why I love trailing bars so much.

10ray k.jpg

Since the above screenshot there is a little sign that price might
start to move down again

but thats the thing - this burst of momentum is similar to a News
spike. When the Momentum fades what will price do?

There are various News strategies but actually no one really
knows - it might reverse a little, a lot or not at all

and so today with our trade, after I got out with 2% it reversed up
considerably. but it might come down to TZ1 and 3.5% or more

or it might not!!!!!!

For me that's the point - it might not

Trailing momentum candles is extremely reliable, I have very rarely
been disappointed when I've trailed momentum.

I've done OK setting TP when I've been realistic but there will always
be times when it isn't quite hit, or much worse when price just powered
through it and would have made you double or more!

Taking into consideration, recalling previous conversations with Ray, this
strategy is more or less predicated upon there being an expected
burst of Momentum following the cross, I would have to favour
Trailing bars as being the preferred choice of exit. Of course
there will always be times when that might not be optimal
just as there will be times this strategy won't even win at all.

But point to note:-

Strategy Summary:
Watch for 6 EMA to cross over ( even briefly and slightly ) and then
crossing back over 50 EMA as being the Optimum signal, and place PO
a few pips below as with these big moves you can afford that precaution,
as you only really want to be in if the price is really going to move.

and btw, I note that after forty minutes price is just going sideways, I think
this will often happen - all the more reason to Babysit the trade and trail,
although I think these trades are usually all over quite quickly.

and it has also to be mentioned - this trade was a lot of fun!
Very, very important!

Ray Strategy Summary.jpg

So thats 6.75% in just two days! I'm even starting to sound like Ray -
which is a very good thing

Perhaps I should keep a Summary from Monday 9th November

1)+1% DS 1
2)-1% DS 1
3)+4.75% DS 1
4)+2% DS 1
_____
+6.75%

Yes, I did delete one trade from this post, not because it lost
but because it was a regular AIMS S2 trade, nothing to do
with this strategy at all. It should have been in the
'November Trades' Post on page 27.

[Seabreeze]

Well done Michael

Good luck with this I will be reading with great interest my friend

[kiravon]

T20 commencing November 20th

T20 9th November - 19th November DS 20/20 26%
Most screenshots are on 'Momentum Trades' thread as despite
some excellent results there were a few experimental
indicators involved

Generally indicators don't tell you anything that isn't already
staring you in the face. When we try out new indicators we,
or rather I may not understand the inner workings but it is only
a rehash of what has already been doing the rounds for years.
so effectively if we are honest with ourselves we are secretly
holding on to this notion that there just might be an indicator
that is a veritable crystal ball. Sometimes it might seem that
way but such an indicator in itself over time will lose more
than it wins.

Some indicators do indeed achieve spectacular results. I have myself
made 4% a day using certain indicators. This is very misleading.
It isn't the indicator!

Alexander the Great was unbeatable, but then it helps when you
really believe your dad is Zeus. I mean it's got to boost confidence
hasn't it

I have heard of astrological trading. not sure exactly how that is
supposed to work but I believe it might do for those with faith in such
a system.

For me, the only true indicator, and let's remember price candles themselves
are an indicator, is a decent trend on the 5 x HTF and momentum on
the CTF in that direction obviously.

Cherries, Seeds, Monarchs when recognized, with or without the proprietry
indicator are only really of use as part of our overall chart reading ability,
and in that context are certainly very profitable as are AIMS levels themselves
which have certainly not become 'old fashioned' at least not as far as I am
concerned.

some can fail badly even with such indicators when they have no insight. or more
typically when the mental state is such that perception of the market is
distorted or confused or there is simply no movement in the market

yet jumping in on a sudden burst of momentum isn't a great
idea if it happens to be in the wrong direction.

but there are times when everything comes together and it is essential to wait
for those times.

Sometimes it can be a long wait

and if we can't wait we are definitely in the wrong game!

I had a great learning experience this morning from around 8.30am UK time
The charts were just awful. so I just waited and waited but nothing improved

I was monitoring the best trend on EurGbp on M30 for hours. It was tedious.

About three occasions I placed a PO on M5 CTF but cancelled after a few minutes when
obviously nothing was really moving.

Finally I got the move I was waiting for. it didn't turn out to be so great and
trailing bars I was stopped for +0.65%

but price didn't completely reverse. it stalled for a while and then resumed
the trend so I went in again for another +0.4%

Compared to last weeks results making pips was really like getting
the proverbial blood out of a stone.

but after a patient four hours work I made a meager +1.05%

This can be the problem when you have had a good week or good month,
you start to view that as the norm and anything less is unsatisfactory.

but as Ray reminds us on every post -

1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (which is approximately one year)
would produce 1103% account growth

So my +1% today was well worth waiting for. and if I could do that every day
on average I would be more than happy.

T20 from November 20th ( T1-T7 screenshots in 'Momentum Trades' thread )
1) +0.5% DS 1
2) +3% DS 1
3) -1% DS 1
4) +4% DS 1
5) +1% DS 1
6) +4% DS 1
7) +1.5% DS 1
8) +1.% DS 1
9) +1% DS 1
10) +2.33% DS 1
The remaining trades for my current T20 will all be found in
this post

24.11.2015
Trade 8 below M5/M30 EURGBP +1.05% DS 1

24.jpg

25.11.2015 Trade 9 NZDUSD M5M30 +1% DS 1
25.11.2015 Trade 10 USDJPY M5M30 +2% +0.33% =2.33% DS 1

25 jpy.JPG

Trade 11 GBPCHF -1% DS 1
Trade 12 GBPCHF -2% DS 1
Trade 13 GBPCHF +2.5% DS 1

25.JPG

Trade 14 USDJPY M5M30 +1% DS 1

27.jpg

30.11.2015
Trade 15 EURUSD M1M5 +1.3% DS 1
Trade 16 EURUSD M1M5 +1% DS 1
Trade 17 EURUSD M1M5 +1% +1%+1%+1%+1% =+5% DS 1
Trade 18 EURUSD M1M5 +1% + 1%+1%+1%+1% =5% DS 1

30.jpg

Trade 19 EU M5M30 -1% DS 1
Trade 20 EU M5M30 -1.5% DS 1
a very indecisive morning for EU. went into a range first trade was an
unrealistic 4 pip SL and second trade was 4 pips but later extended to
6 pips. spiked me out hence the 1.5% rent as inititial 1% stop was
increased by 50% ie 4 to 6.

I was slightly pleased at sustaining two rents this morning, as reading
TITZ last night I was reminded of how we need be certain only
of uncetainty. The last three week's results have been phenomenal.
I don't know why but there is a danger in coming to 'expect' endless
winners will set me up for emotional disaster when the rents do
start flooding in as can happen.

I believe I have an edge, that is all. I should come out ahead at the
end of most months now.

20% per week is not a true indication of
my emotional, psychological or technically ability

And if that is the case then the statistics will only average out if I
have some losing runs. I will do my best to avoid them but they
are an inevitable part of trading so I am bracing myself emotionally
for whatever comes next - good or bad

30b.jpg

November 9th -19th DS 20/20 +26%
November 20th - 30th DS 20/20 +33%