Michael's (zlabis) Journal [The Magician]

[zlabis]

RESULT OF NOVEMBER 2015
Week 45: + 15.0 P = +1.8%, DS = 5/5, 10.00 hrs (Apple/Seed/Cherry)
Week 46: + 47.0 P = +6.4%, DS = 3/4, 6.00 hrs (Apple/Seed/Cherry)
Week 47: + 10.0 P = +1.4%, DS = 10/10, 8.50 hrs (Apple/Seed/Cherry)
Week 48: + 108.0 P = +10.1%, DS = 9/9, 11.50 hrs (Apple/Seed/Cherry)
Week 49: + 1.0 P = +/-0.0%, DS = 3/3, 2.00 hrs (Apple/Seed/Cherry)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result: + 181.0 P = + 21.1% (with compounding), DS = 30/31 (97%), 38.00 hrs



Statistics of setups:
Total trades: 32
Winners: 14, BEs: 9, Rents: 9
PF (254.0/87.5) = 2.9

Seeds:
11 Trades - 4 winners/4 BEs/3 rents
+42,5 points = +8.35% (compounded)
PF (70.5/28.0) = 2,51

Cherries:
10 trades - 5 winners/2 BEs/3 rents
+97 points = +9,88 (compounded)
PF (121.0/34,0) = 3,56

Adam's Apple Fruits:
6 trades - 1 winners/3 BEs/2 rents
+7.0 points = +0.1% (compounded)
PF (22.55/15.5) = 1.45

Breakouts:
3 trades - 2 winner/0 BEs/1rents
+30 points = +3.0% (compounded)
PF (40/10) = 4

PC-BDB:
2 trades - 2 winners/0 BEs/0 rents
+38 points = +5.3% (compounded)

[zlabis]

Still very busy therefore only brief journal updates.

Tue. Dec. 01, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

No clear and obvious structure during whole session. I filtered all signals, so took no entries, not even placed one PO, and I am very happy with my discipline.

[zlabis]

Wed. Dec. 02, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Very similar conditions like yesterday but today there were more signals. The first on was valid but I missed it. It was a BE or even +2% but anyway. Next ;-)
All other signals were either invalid at all or were filtered due to explaination on screen shot.

No trades and good discipline again.

[zlabis]

Thu. Dec. 03, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

There was huge move during LO session without many valid signals. First one I filtered because it was already high in the sky with huge AO. Second valid signal, I took:

Trade 1:
Monarch Cherry into possible and probable w5. I left TP at 2R untouched because w4 was very short and shallow. I painted TZ1 manually and left pullback leg of fib exp tool unaltered at 50% pullback level. I used that TZ1 as projected target which was a few points above TP. This time I was a bit lucky that TP was hit by 1 point with +2%.

Today's result: +13.0p = +2.1% , DS = 1 / 1, 2.00 hrs

[zlabis]

Fri. Dec. 04, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

LO session was a copy of choppy Monday's and Tuesday's LO session. There was a big whipsaw after LO and after that, it went into a range with rather low volatiliy.

There was one good setup (Seed) where I placed a PO but it got invalidated before it was triggered. I filtered all other signals because they were mainly showing up in a range without good structure and movement.

Today I saw that "luck" and "bad luck" will get eased out over time because in contrast to yesterday's luck with hitting TP by one point, I missed a good, profitable setup by 4 or 5 minutes. I know that, in the longer run, those singular events will ease each other out and there will be the statistical prove of our edge.

This week was marked by very few valild setups which was a test of my patience and discipline but I've got the feeling that I've passed it ;-)

Result of week 49, 30.12.-04.12.2015 - M1/M5 live:
Mon. 30.11. +1.0p = +/-0.0%, DS = 3/3, 2.25 hrs, M1/M5
Tue. 01.12. no trades taken, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
Wed. 02.12. no trades taken, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
Thu. 03.12. +13.0p = +2.1%, DS = 1/1, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
Fri . 04.12. no trades taken, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result ...... +14.0p = +2.1% (with compounding), DS = 4 / 4 (100%), 10.25 hrs


LO trades handled by Snorm's News EA have worked out pretty well this week:
Mon. 30.11. long not triggered, short +2.0%
Tue. 01.12. long not triggered, short +2.0%
Wed. 02.12. long +2.0%, short +2.0%
Thu. 03.12. long not triggered, short +/-0%
Fri. 04.12. long not triggered, short +/-0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's LO news-EA result: +8.0%


News trades with News EA started out well into the week but last 2 events brought -9% and shifted results from nice positive % to a -2% rent:
Mon. 30.11. no news
Tue. 01.12. GBP Bank stress test: long +2.0%, short not triggered
Tue. 01.12. GBP Manufactoring PMI: long -1.0%, short +2.0%
Tue. 01.12. USD ISM Manufactoring PMI: long -1.0%, short not triggered
Wed. 02.12. GBP Constr. PMI: long: not triggered, short +2.0%
Wed. 02.12. USD Non-Farm Empl. change: long -1.0%, short +2.0%
Thu. 03.12. GBP Service PMI: long -1.0%, short +2.0%
Thu. 03.12. EUR minimum bid rate: longs: -1.0%, -0.5%, +2%, shorts: -1.0%, -2.5%
Fri. 04.12. Non-Farm Employment change: longs: -3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, shorts: -1.0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's news-result: -2.0% (without compounding)

I have to honestly admit, that last two events are actually concerning me a bit. Although I know that there's always the possibility of uncertainties like big slippage (had more than 20p slippage with one entry yesterday and today) but usually I like to predetermine maximum risk of each campaign. At the moment it seems difficult to me to imagine that if I have a bigger account and I'm then trading news with final risk of 0.5% or 1% in each direction and I see dropping % count by -3% or even -6%, if and how it will affect me. But I will continue testing it with very small risk for getting used to that situations and to learn and understand that it will pay off over longer time. Anyway, money- and risk-management (which risk to take on each news and at which daily, weekly, monthly and overall SLs or TP I need to stop) remains an issue which I need to solve for me.

It's an excellent tool which I really want to recommend to everyone:
http://www.for-exe.com/advanced-news-trader.html

[zlabis]

Mon. Dec. 07, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Bridge day here in Austria and family at home due to tomorrow's Feast of the Immaculate Conception but I found possibility to trade anyway.

LO whipsawed out News-EA entries in both directions with full rents before it moved strongly down. Can't complain at all as it gave me good profit last week ;-)

Trade 1:
DAX moved very strongly today during LO session but there was only one good signal in the earlier stage of the move and that signal failed. It was a nice Cherry but maybe pullback was a bit small. Took it anyway as all rules were met:
- new peak of AO
- high volatility
- M5 gator opened to the upside
- strong M5 up momentum
- micro TZ1 far enough away
- all barriers to the left cleared

It simply didn't work ount and hit init SL with -1%.


After that there was one PC Cherry/Seed setup (PC overrides need of new AO peak according to my rules) which I was interested in but as it wasn't a clear a-b-c zigzag, I unfortunately skipped it. Anyway, there will be loads of opportunities ;-)

After w3 was done, I patiently waited for pullback into w4 and an Adam's Apple Fruit near purple at a reasonable pullback level to form to catch beginning of w5 but today I waited for it all in vain. Next time there will be one again )

Today's result: -13.0p = -1.0%, DS = 1 / 1 , 2.00 hrs

Today's News-EA at LO: long -1.0%, short -1.0%

[zlabis]

Tue. Dec. 08, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Plenty of movement today during LO session but no tradeable signals which met our criteria (see screenshot). I'm happy with my discipline.

Today's result: no trades taken, 2.00 hrs

Today's News-EA at LO: long -1.0%, short -1.0%

[zlabis]

Wed. Dec. 09, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Morning session with good movement. Was a bit erratic but showed good entry opportunities as well. One trade and one PC-Cherry/BDB signal which I filtered due to its entry on wrong side of red gator.

Trade 1:
Monarch Seed after first few up- and down-swings. It rushed through TP with so much power that exit slipped by 7.5p and exited with +2.8%. Fortunately TP order had been triggered because right after exit candle, it reversed again to the up side.

Today's result: +26.5p = +2.8% , DS = 1 / 1 , 2.00 hrs

Today's News-EA at LO: long -1.0%, short -1.0%

[zlabis]

Thu. Dec. 10, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

DAX started at LO with a big up- and down-swing which ended with a beautiful fruit into a big up-move of more than 100 points. Unfortunately there wasn't any signal for us to enter. First signal after peak was filtered as there was too little pullback and only one dark AO bar.

Note:
Screenshot was made with new "The Hunt" indicators and template. I made screenshot of this session today, 11th of December, after I applied "The Hunt" to my charts.

Trade 1:
There was a tripple Cherry/Seed combo right at 38.1% pullback level which formed a PC/zigzag as well. I took it with confidence. It was potential start of w5 of w3, but it simply didn't work out as it reversed immediately after PO had been triggered. Init SL got hit with -1.0%. Next.

Trade 2:
Next attempt to catch the next up-move, this time w5. It was a good Adam's Apple Fruit at 50% pullback with big angle. This time it hit 1:1 before it reversed and hit SL at BE.

Trade 3:
After another small swing, it seemed to go finally up into w5. It didn't paint a signal at bottom but I was so sure about w5 that I took breakout of box with 10p hard SL and 20p hard TP. I was so eager to catch that move that I broke my rule which says: "If I miss the initial signal into a possible w5 (e.g. AA signal), I might consider taking break of next AIMS level." There was no signal => no entry at AIMS break. I nevertheless took the trade, so DS = 0 for that. Next.

Today's result: -25.5p = -2.2% , DS = 2 / 3 , 2.00 hrs

Today's News-EA at LO: long -1.0%, short -1.0%

[zlabis]

Fri. Dec. 11, 2015

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Yesterday in the evening, Immy, Grant and Steve presented in AIMS Skype group their evolved and streamlined new trading method, called "AIMS The Hunt". It is based on Grant Rules Seeds and Cherries but have simplified decission process again. As far as I know, it is exclusively availeable in AIMS skype group.

I started using new Seed and Cherry indies in combination with AIMS box and AIMS gator what was against Immy's explicit recommendation. He said that there should only be Seed, Cherry and AO (e.g. eWave, AIMS Waves) on chart. As my plan still says:" Trade Adam's Apple Fruits!", I was concerned that I can't do it without AIMS box and Alligator. I need work on my Trading Plan after that change.

There was good movement on DAX during LO session but it stayed in a huge rectangular range of 60 points width but right after LO there showed up a good signal => Trade 1.

Trade 1:
Monarch Cherry a few minutes after LO. Trigger candle was a very impulsive down candle which hit 1:1 level to the point, so SL was moved to BE by Snorm's Advanced Trade Manager (ATM). Unfortunately it retraced a bit and kicked trade out at BE before it went down to TP nicely. +/-0.0%. Next ;-)

Second signal (Seed) was good but I deleted PO before next candle had even closed which is a cardinal mistake when trading technical indicators. A Seed gets invalidated only if one of the next candle(s) is (are) closing on wrong side of Seed candle.

Last Signal was very good Seed signal again but there was a 2p jump in price (gap) where placement of PO got rejected. I wanted to enter with "Sell MO" button of ATM but it has already moved too far.

Today's result: +/-0.0p = +/-0.0%, DS = 1 / 1 , 2.00 hrs

Today's News-EA at LO: long not triggered, short +2.0%