Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

January 2016
Wk 1
W/L 4/5
BE 1
DS 6/6
+36%

Comments
Most of this gain was on the first day. Campaigns are where
the profit is, more than isolated trades I will be happy to average
just 3% - 5% per week, but this week has been a great confidence boost.

On the other hand this wasn't just luck, it is not a coincidence that
I have spent thousands of screen hours and meticulous journal keeping
that have finally resulted in me winning more than losing, and rarely losing
more than 1%.

My thanks to everyone who has been supportive over the last nine months.
If you stick at it you can all succeed!










.

[wiseambitions]

You're on a roll! That was a good week

I find a lot of the success is in letting the winners run up, but we don't know when we start a trade if it is going to be a good one, so my opinion is "just follow your system". If we had gold mines we wouldn't just work in them 5 minutes a day.

I've just been reading a letter from brother in law who is in Venezuela, and living in a beautiful warm part. I started to get envious when he said you can fill up with petrol, ridiculously cheap, for about a penny, but when I got past mention of corruption, which is terrible at every level, to the bit that says power and internet goes off for 2 or 3 hours a day I thought that would mess up any hope of trading ! Such had not really come into my thinking before. Meanwhile with what we know now, haven't we got the best job in the world?

[kiravon]

So right Ray! Grass is always greener on the other side! I find that
here in Poland. I can afford to live very cheaply here but I couldn't
afford to be ill for very long - it's probably my frugal nature that keeps
me so healthy

I've just been watching some videos by a top trading psychologist.
Some great tips, for the very risk averse - try setting up a
strategy with very tight stops and many anticipated losers but a
few very big winners - ( a bit like the 10% per day system )
Trade real money, enough for the losers to hurt but money
you can easily afford to lose.

The object isn't to trade this system permanently but to
re educate the mind to be more acclimatized to money
flowing both in and out of our account.

Training the brain.

He also explains how that fear of loss goes right back to our
most primal fears and phobias. When hunting meant survival,
and to 'lose' would mean hunger and deprivation and interestingly
loss of prestige

these were the times when the womenfolk would look to the man
to bring home the bacon - literally

So there must have been no small measure of performance anxiety
and a lot of this stuff is still in us buried at some deep level.

But I just love it now, looking over the last week's results is quite
interesting - over 20% first day, then 11% then you notice the extreme
caution setting in with tiny, safe single trades. I will be loosening up
next week with more campaigns.

When I was in the skyperoom I found campaigns, or multiple addons was
a brilliant way of blowing your account pretty fast. and that's certainly
true if you don't know what you're doing, or are blindly following the herd

nevertheless I've come full circle back to that, inspired by your results,
when a trade is really working out well - milk it for all it's worth!

otherwise get out pronto! protect your account from unnecessary,
reckless losses.

But you are so right, once you get all the mistakes out of the way,
and really get your head around the psychological issues, it
really is the best job in the world!

I don't need to post screenshots anymore publicly, they are
extremely repetitive after all. But I will have something for the
guys very soon that will be of real encouragement and should
therefore be quite moderator friendly. well hopefully

I am half planning to present a free trading workshop here in Poland.
I can do that ok but I hesitate because I don't see anyway you can
really help someone in a couple of hours. You can only really explain
the basics but you would need a follow up course to really be of any
value and that's just not something I want to get involved in.

But if we are having consistent success with a Fractal based strategy
it's good to share that success with the newer guys here, as we
are all pretty much on the same page here, yet some of the guys are
struggling, even thinking of giving up.

It's not hard, you just need to stick at it until it just finally clicks

In the meantime everyone needs to see success stories, to help
them see that guys who couldn't trade to save their life have now
turned it all around. If we can do it, so can they!

It isn't about systems, it's all about confidence and a very positive
psychological mindset. I don't think anyone views the consistently
profitable traders here as anything but an inspiration.

But I would think your brother in law could probably afford his own castle
and just try to keep clear of the problems, - but just about highest crime
rate in the world, highest murder and kidnapping rate!!

Doesn't he feel in any danger?

[wiseambitions]

It's always good to hear what the psychologists say, although have I ever met a happy one? Hey isn't half the trouble with this lark that most of the gurus (psychologists, mentors etc - Immy and Bill Williams excepted) aren't themselves traders! I found a good ebook about emotion free trading, I have posted it before, but promise I will re-attach it again to my pages after the weekend. True what you say about men (the hunters), we have too much pride, and hate to accept losses - I have heard it said ladies are better at letting go of losing trades than men. I would not be surprised if that is true. Anyway I have deliberately let go of 60% of my trades this week, and yet came out fairly stress- free with 20% massive winnings against a target of 5%. I let go of them on the basis that it's like getting on public transport. You buy a bus ticket, you sit on it in heavy traffic, it doesnt seem to be moving and you think this is too slow, maybe the driver doesn't even know the way either, so you give up on that idea, get off that bus, go and buy an underground train ticket and actually get there quicker that day in spite of paying twice.............. All our profits come from perhaps only 20% of our trades, the rest are small wins which offset multiple small losses, but that's a bit like a man called Pareto said many years ago, 80% of your results come from 20% of your efforts.

------

Venezuela - Yes, rough, with no justice. His wife's colleague at work got put in prison because she took money out of the firm's cash on instructions of her line manager to buy her boss a plane ticket to go to a conference, and it was deemed she who was on the fiddle! Police are underpaid so that they are corrupt as well. (Bit like I've heard about speeding fines taken in Poland!). I believe murder rates are running high, but looking at the news today it seems as though Europe, Cologne in particular, is pretty unrested by people who can't behave!

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Ray

A person with good discipline but a poor trading method will outperform a person with poor self discipline but the best trading method currently available

[kiravon]

Well quite a month!

An unbelievably profitable start that all went a bit wrong
toward the end of the month with five consecutive rents.

January - 15 Campaigns W 7/15
DS 13/15 ( not so good )

But some points to ponder and I don't have all the answers to them:-

Prior to AIMS I bought membership to two other five star rated services
and both are genuine and good. One has literally hundreds of five star ratings
on Forexpeacearmy and the first conclusion might be that he is therefore
the best service.

But his 'honesty' is not exactly inspiring! He doesn't feel there is much chance
of a trader getting very rich just through his own trading, rather you should aim
to make a modest but reliable 10% per year then make your fortune through
PAMM accounts as everyone will want to invest in you if you are consistent.

Well we all agree on consistency, but really! 10% a year! He often cites the
case of the billionaire Ukrainian Fund Manager who only makes about 10%
per year which is enough for everyone to want to invest in her.

Seriously, am I missing something here?

My second five star mentor has traded for institutions in the past and he is
probably a bit more ambitious than my first mentor and his daily commentaries
are extremely good and probably well worth following.

But he recently revealed his top student made no less than 25% profit over
the last six months

Well 50% per year does sound good compared to 10% per year.

But on this forum 50% per month is not unheard of, which is a big difference!

Another respected mentor stresses that you should be realistic, - you will
not make more than 4% per month trading ( this would seem to agree with
the 25% in six months mentioned above )

It seems that the more negative a mentor is the more his 'honesty' is respected.
- and by the way, this mentor' students don't make more than 4% per month!

We also know that the actual system is the least important aspect of a
trader's success.

Actually I know for a fact that real life traders can consistently make 20%+ per
month and likely much more

so some of this 'honesty' isn't exactly cast in stone. It could be inherited honesty
where everyone believes their lacklustre mentors and then their students in turn
believe them thereby perpetuating these very lacklustre results

My gut feeling is to completely ignore all this negative junk and focus on the guys
who are making 20%+ and even 50% per month and just try to model their success.

I think probably most here know this is quite achievable providing we simply
take the best setups and strictly avoid the rest.

This is invariably the problem - we have a weak moment, enter a weak trade
and give our profits back.

I don't have the answer to this but I read a free ebook which is not about trading
but is all about strengthening your resolve. It is a very encouraging and
helpful book which I would highly recommend. I don't recommend you pay
for his advanced material and there are no affiliate links, but this free ebook
could possibly be just the thing to turn your trading around.

In my case I think its worth a second read

If I could just say no to all but the very best setups I know how successful
trading can be. I've experienced it but it's oh so easy to slip back into
the old ways!
http://1drv.ms/1nQXzjG

[wiseambitions]

Brilliant article you wrote there Mickey!

And where you speak of respected mentors with an expectation of 10% a year it reminded me of one of the most revered advisers at my own company. She was achieving results of around 12% for her clients by recommending which funds people should invest in, and with frequent switching of course. She was so successful and busy that she restricted her client base strictly to 100 and people were queueing up to replace natural wastage. Hey, now think about it. If we had 100 or even 10 people paying us a fair share of profits for achieving 12% in a month, let alone a year, for doing what we know now, we'd do well out of selling the signals!

I'm not sure what to say though where you talk about best setups. The signal which might say buy at let's say 14:40 in the afternoon might not look particularly convincing but might be the seed to a trend which runs for 100 pips, so we have to take it in good faith if it meets criteria. The main thing is to avoid impulsive trading and wishing hoping and praying!

[kiravon]

I think I've almost figured out Ray's new signature!

It's not some definite information that someone has
about the market but rather what most investors think
other investors think they know that they don't know,
when these other investors also are contemplating
what other traders might know that they don't know

Reminded me of that Danny Kaye film where Danny has to
drug his opponent's drink before a duel but the chalices are
switched so he has to remember a mnemonic rhyme -


Hawkins: I've got it! I've got it! The pellet with the poison's in
the vessel with the pestle; the chalice from the palace has the
brew that is true! Right?
Griselda: Right. But there's been a change: they broke the chalice
from the palace!
Hawkins: They *broke* the chalice from the palace?
Griselda: And replaced it with a flagon.
Hawkins: A flagon...?
Griselda: With the figure of a dragon.
Hawkins: Flagon with a dragon.
Griselda: Right.
Hawkins: But did you put the pellet with the poison in the vessel
with the pestle?
Griselda: No! The pellet with the poison's in the flagon with the dragon!
The vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true!
Hawkins: The pellet with the poison's in the flagon with the dragon;
the vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true.
Griselda: Just remember that.

[kiravon]

My first in-running campaign for February might
be relevant on the 10% per year theme

So far I've closed two trades on EU with one still open
with TP set just under TZ1

Profit so far has been 3% + 1% =4% and hopefully
more to come

So final profit will be between 3% - 5% for one day.

So I'm really not interested in 10% per year.

There is nothing in my trades which is substantially
any different to anyone else here. I use Gator
extensively, break of AIMS, even Ewaves if context
suggests it might be relevant.

This isn't difficult guys.

Without launching into a massive essay I will just add
that I am very much a trend follower always with HTF
confluence, I'll enter for various reasons which might
not always be obvious on the screenshots, but I always
have a very good feeling about the pattern of the trend
on both TFs. One acid test for me is whether I see
potential for a campaign or just a single trade? For
example there may be a 2R chance to TZ1 but serious
prior S/R might preclude a campaign.

It takes serious willpower and patience but it's all about RR
and campaigns can yield over 3% and sometimes much,
much more! So it makes sense to think in terms of campaigns
rather than single trades.

Of course sometimes it doesn't work out and you may get a
couple of rents but overall the rewards far outweigh the risks.

My profit for January was ostensibly 50.4% with max
DD of 3%

However I came clean on my website and in my Monthly
summary reduced this by half as I now trade 0.5% risk
per trade.

Does this mean I only make half as much? I doubt it.
as I am now twice as confident knowing the chances
these days of incurring 200 consecutive rents is not
high.

In January for example I made 25.2% won 7/15 Max DD 1.5%
DS a disappointing 13/15 due to a relapse into over confidence.

Here is my in-running campaign from yesterday. I will also upload
the final screenshot for context when the campaign is over.

feb1.jpg

[kiravon]

First Campaign February +5R =2.5%

Really 2.5% per day is quite attainable or even 5% per day
if you are risking 1% per trade

Interestingly straight after hitting my profit target at TZ1
the price plummeted 47 pips!

Like others I have quite a high regard for TZ1 as profit target,
if too close to entry I won't enter obviously, if too far I won't
target it, but anywhere between 1R and 3R it can be extremely
reliable, in other words if TZ1 is 2R from entry it would be
extremely unwise to set a TP beyond that

feb1b.jpg

[kiravon]

2nd Campaign February 5R +2.5%

It looks like one big campaign from 1st - 3rd February on EU
comprising six winning trades.

But the first three trades were M15 TF and the last three
trades were on the H1 TF

You will see that the last three trades hit TZ1 ( feint grey )
quite comfortably but my TP was set well below that

Simply, TZ1 was not apparent on the H1 TF so I targeted
prior resistance cautiously, although the wicks to that
resistance level did indeed correspond to the TZ1 on
the M30 screenshot below.

probably one of my most encouraging screenshots
to date, and on both campaigns analysis was minimal

feb123.jpg