Michael's (zlabis) Journal [The Magician]

[zlabis]

Wed. Mar. 02, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

As expected, DAX on M1 didn't present itself as nicely structured and tradeable as yesterday and stayed in a huge range but our system kept us safe. A significant symptom of situations like that is that it often presents pullback setups at a late stage before reversing and that it often offers great opportunity for reversal setups like counter Fruits (like 10:24, 10:54-10:55 and 11:13).
Nevertheless I took two signals.

There was some erratic PA right at LO and after some down move there showed up an awesome counter Fruit (10:24) right at well confirmed resistance level (at around 9745) which led into a big up move. There was one dark AO bar (at 10:44) but it neither pulled back properly nor showed any setup in that rather early stage of the move.

Trade 1 - Cherry:

As there finally showed up a signal the up move was already in a rather late stage but I was so eager to get something out of that big move, that I ignored the lack of pull back and the high probability of a bigger w4 of w3 which usually retraces between 38.1% and 50% fib ret. => DS = 0
After entry was triggered it reversed and hit init SL qickly with -1R.

Cherry, SL = 8.5p = 1R, TP = 17.0p = 2R
Result: -8.5p = -1.0R, DS = 0


Trade 2 - Cherry:

This time my analysis was more grounded and less emotion driven. There had already clearly w1-2-3-4 taken place when that beautiful Cherry pinbar right at red gator showed up - a very nice Cherry signal indicating possible start of w5 of w3. I took the signal with confidence and without hasitation and analysis turned out to be perfectly well but, unfortunatly, after SL got moved to BE, SL got hit to the most minimal fraction of a point and it kicked the trade out at BE before it advanced far beyond TP level towards TZ1.

Cherry, SL = 10.0p = 1R, TP = 20p = 2R
Result: BE = +/-0.0, DS = 1


Today's result: -8.5p = -1.0R, DS = 1 / 2, 2.00 hrs

[zlabis]

Thu. Mar. 03, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Today DAX started at LO with a lovely breakout to the downside and even painted a great signal at first pullback:


Trade 1 - monarch-like Cherry:

At the first pullback after breakout there was a nice double Cherry combo with a monarch-like AO. For "real" Monarch, there were too many red AO bars already. I had PO below first Cherry which I deleted as signal bar was invalidated. PO of following Cherry got triggered. After some up and down spikes, it finally broke out and hit 1R level which brought SL to BE. Unfortunately, it spiked up again, kicking trade out at BE before it went down beyond TP nicely - but without me anymore.

canceled Cherry PO: DS = 1

Cherry, SL = 11.7p = 1R, TP = 23.4p = 2R
Result: BE = 0.0p = 0.0R, DS = 1


Trade 2: - Monarch Cherry:

After w1-5 cycle of down move was possibly finished, there was a strong breakout to the upside beyond purple which might have indicated beginn of c-wave to complete the whole wave cycle. At it's first pullback it formed a nice Cherry signal in combination with Monarch AO pattern. TZ2 (100% Fib ext for c-wave) was far enough away to have it beyond 2R TP level. It didn't move up strongly at the beginning and init SL was even nearly hit but finally it went up in direction of the trade. 1R was hit to bring SL to BE but then it pulled back again and hit SL at BE at 2 points without reaching init SL level before it proceeded to TP and beyond.

Monarch Cherry, SL = 7p = 1R, TP = 14.0p = 2R
Result: Result: BE = 0.0p = 0.0R, DS = 1


Today's result: BE = 0.0p = 0.0R, DS = 3/3, 2.00 hrs

A nice trading session with good signals which didn't work out completely but discipline and analysis was good, IMHO.

[zlabis]

Fri. Mar. 04, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Today was NFP day so didn't expect too much of movement but I wanted to take things as they come but it turned out to be a rather unspectacular 2 hrs LO session to me.

I skipped 3 valid signals due to explaination on screenshot. I didn't take any trades during my session and was happy with my patience and my analysis.

Today's result: 0 trades, 2.00 hrs

Result of week 9, 29.02.-04.03.2016 - M1/M5 live:
Mon. 29.02. -10.5p = -1,05R, DS = 3/3, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
Tue. 01.03. +62.1p = +5.4R, DS = 2/2, 2.50 hrs, M1/M5
Wed. 02.03. -8.5p = -1.0R, DS = 1/2, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
Thu. 03.03. 0.0p = 0.0R, DS = 3/3, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
Fri . 04.06. no trades taken, 0.0p=0.0R, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result ...... +43.1p = +3.3% (with compounding), DS = 9 / 10 (90%), 10.50 hrs

I feel the urge to let winners run more but I'll stick disciplinely to TP=2R during rest of March.

[zlabis]

Mon. Mar. 07, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 10:30 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Good structure this morning but the signals whic were given to us didn't work out during the first 1,5 hrs after LO. I had to quit then due to privat commitments.

There was one signal after price broke out through purple to the up-side which got invalidated at the very next candle. It's not visible in hindsight anymore but at the time the signal showed up, red and green M5 gator were heading up and had crossed each other. Therefore and because PA was way above LO price level, it was a good signal to me => DS = 1.

Trade 1 - Cherry:

Price reversed after initial small LO up-move and went down with pace. There were 2 periods where move halted a little bit but didn't retrace very much and didn't paint dark AO at all. So I had to wait until there was a proper pullback with a good signal. As the pullback finally occured, I skipped the first Cherry/Seed combo (which wouldn't have been triggered anyway) because it hadn't enough pullback and the amount of dark bars was too small for that big down move. Price went up and there was painted a nice Cherry pinbar right at red gator (= purple of 5x LTF) which was potential entry into w5 of w3. I took it without hasitation and it went down as desired, hit 1R level (SL => BE) and proceded even further. Unfortunately it reversed a few pips above my 2R-TP and hit SL at BE with +/-0.0R.

Cherry, SL = 9.8p = 1R, TP = 19.6p = 2R
Result: BE = +/-0.0R, DS = 1

Today's result: +/-0.0p = +/-0.0R, DS = 2 / 2, 1.50 hrs

[zlabis]

Tue. Mar. 08, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 8:50 - 10:30 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

DAX offered clear and obvious structure alongside with good, strong movement today in contrast to yesterday's LO.

Trade 1 - S1:
What a beautiful trade which I took with absolute confidence. I opened charts 5 minutes before and the structure of M5/M1 and the Setup unfolded itself so clearly infront of my eyes that I had to take it without hasitation even a few minutes to LO. It worked out as expected/pre-analysed according to structure and hit TP at +2R with ease. Maybe I was a bit lucky that there didn't show up any whipsaws right at LO but clear bearish structure overrode possible bullish impulses.

S1, SL = 8.7p = 1R, TP = 17.4p = 2R
Result: +17.4p = +2.0R, DS = 1


Trade 2 - Seed:
Initial breakout at LO produced a strong, but not too big w3 before it pulled back. I skipped the first Cherry due to too small pullback and the expectation of some sort of zigzag correction. At the time the price reached green and red gator, I was ready for an entry but there wasn't painted a signal there before it broke the box to the downside. Fortunately the advance stopped for one candle, painted a Seed and gave opportunity to enter. There was still enough distance to mTZ1 for the 2R-TP, so I placed PO quickly. The trade turned out to be a straight +2R winner and price reversed a few bars later right at mTZ1 without dropping much further.

Seed, SL = 8.7p = 1R, TP = 17.4p = 2.0R
Result: +17.4p = +2.0R, DS = 1

Today's result: +34.8p = +4.0R, DS = 2/2, 1.75 hrs

Trading that session was rather effortless as I had the feeling that I was in tune with that clear and obvious move this morning. It was a good example, IMHO, how setups show up easily if structure is clear and obvious and volatility/movement is present. Skipping those 2 "low-quality" signals was easy at these conditions as well.

[zlabis]

Wed. Mar. 09, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Today DAX showed a very typical behaviour: breakout in one direction for a reasonable amount of points followed by a reversal, initiated by a counter Fruit (10:07 BDB), which goes far beyond LO levels and ends at another counter Fruit (10:36) after around 100 points. I didn't take Fruits at bottom and top of the movement as it's not part of my plan (yet ;-)) but I waited for break of upper H1 AIMS level (9735 at that time) which was potential break into w5 on H1 (which hasn't developed yet).

Trade 1 -Cherry:
There were several failed attempts to break that mentioned H1 level. As it got finally broken, I waited for pullback which ended with a lovely Cherry as retest of previous resistance which become support then. I took it with confidence and without hasitation and it went in my favour very quickly. It passed 1R level and hit TP at +2R in less than a minute. I took it together with Kyle in Skype room and Grant made the trade as well. Very nice structure and movement.

Cherry, SL = 10.0p = 1R, TP = 20.0p
Result: +20.3p = +2.0R, DS = 1

Trade 2 - Cherry (AA style)
Correction of good w3 up went as zigzag down to 38.1% fib ret a bit above support at 9735. It painted Cherry which was nearly an Adam's Apple and due to confluence with these levels and good M5 up-momentum I took it. Unfortunately it went further down and kicked init SL with -1R.

Cherry, SL = 7.5p = 1R, TP = 15.0p = 2R
Result: -7.5p = -1.0R, DS = 1

There were 2 more signals during my session which I skipped according to comments on screenshot. DS = 2 / 2 for skipping them.

Today's result: +12.8p = +1.0R, DS = 4 / 4, 2.00 hrs

[immy]

I only like Trade Cherry/seeds. Thats my definition of AIMS The Hunt.

[zlabis]

Thu. Mar. 10, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 8:45 - 10:30 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Today I was a bit lucky because I made it to the chart a little bit earlier and was therefore able to whitness that lovely, tightening box right before LO.

Trade 1 - bracketed LO breakout:
I had POs for long and for short. Short got triggered right at LO candle without whipsaw and ran into TP in less than a minute with +2R.

LO breakout, SL = 10p = 1R, TP = 20p = 2R
Result: +20.0p = +2.0R, DS = 1


Trade 2 - Cherry:
LO breakout down move pulled back and formed nice Cherry right at red gator (=purple of 5x LTF). After getting triggered it rushed down to 1R but ATM line wasn't triggered by the fraction of a point and therefore SL remained untouched at init level. Unfortunately, price reversed sharpley and kicked SL with -1R.

Cherry, SL = 10p = 1R, TP = 20p = 2R
Result: -10.5p = -1.05R, DS = 1

There were a couple of signals which I filtered due to explaination on screenshot. I quitted earlier as structure didn't appear properly tradeable anymore which could have been refered to ECB news and press conference in the afternoon but usually, I don't pay too much attention to it. If there is a signal, I take it, if not then not.

Today's result: +9.5p = +0.95R, DS = 2 / 2, 1.75 hrs

[immy]

I'd say one rude thing.

That breakout was a gamble... i hope you know that.

[zlabis]

Fri. Mar. 11, 2016

Screen time:
London Open session 9:00 - 11:00 (GMT+1) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

DAX opened the day at FO with a huge gap of more than 130 points and screwed structure a bit. At LO there was some erratic up and down candles before it went up. That up move ended in a strong counter Fruit.

Trade 1 - Seed:
Although there was that previously mentioned counter Fruit, and down candles were rather impulsive as well, I decided to give that Seed a try. It simply didn't work out and hit init SL at -1.1R (1p slippage). In hindsight, it would've been a better decission to let it go due to structure (espacially M5) but I personally considered structure had been reset at LO and trade was in confluence with M5 momentum. Therefore DS=1 althoug my analysis neglected some details.

Seed, SL = 12.5p = 1.0R, TP = 25.0p = 2R
Result: -13.5p = -1.1R, DS = 1

Trade 2 - Seed:
There was a long ongoing small range and when the signal showed up, I was eager to catch any breakout in an early stage. Although M5 gator was still opened to the upside, it was closing more and more but there was still some up momentum at that time. Taking that short signal above purple (mistake 1) and, even worse, above that massive support area, was a classic personal fail trade and DS = 0 for that. In hindsight I'm glad that it didn't work out so my wrong action hadn't got rewarded and therefore wasn't reinforced.

Seed, SL = 10.0p = 1.0R, TP = 20.0p = 2R
Result: -11.5p = -1.2 R, DS = 0

Today's result: -25.0p = -2.3p, DS = 1 / 2, 2.00hrs

That was a session without good signals. I took two low-quality signals and payed my apprentice due but without our strong and robust system it could have been much worse. Conditions like today can be account killers but with our systems (trading- and risk/money wise) we're safe.