Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

And now a break to the downside on the second triangle (plus
the break of AIMS ) - you could really do this all day long!

2 triangles 2.jpg

[kiravon]

I almost booked up for an eye test!

You just had to blink and price had either gapped or spiked off the screen!
it all seemed to start with ECB min bid rate but the erratic behaviour went on
for quite a while after

Eventually I was able to redraw some trendlines and took a break of AIMS.

Gunning for 200 pips today

trendline.jpg

[kiravon]

Life without Rents!

Ok perhaps I'm being just a bit premature, and yes I
do still incur manageable rents but believe it or not

never when trading a break of AIMS confluent with
break of triangle pattern

There are guys who have made millions doing nothing
but trading triangles, and that's with no reference to
AIMS or Fractals

I am finding the break of both to be a lethal combination!

One general criticism of AIMS is that it 'goes off the boil'.
Whilst on the one hand it's a fair criticism it's no more
apparent then with most other systems

Almost no system works perfectly well all the time
under all market conditions.

Triangles to me are the 'All weather race track'.

As the price becomes increasingly compressed
it finally has to burst out and make a move

Couple that with a break of AIMS and you have a
doubly robust system.

A second and similar example of this is AIMS S1
particularly if gators are entwined longer than usual
price cannot remain constrained within a tight channel
indefinitely

Eventually it has to break out and make a move

triangle.jpg

[kiravon]

The Wisdom of Tony Blair

Well that heading may have alienated 90% of possible readers )

But he did say something yesterday of note

In order to support a certain political argument he pondered
whether people fully grasped how fast the world is changing
( he didn't exactly say heading into oblivion but implied extreme
instability at the very least )

and then he made the point ' you only have to look at the
currency markets '

meaning, some of the wild erratic behavior we see on the
charts is a kind of barometer of increasing global instability

It occurred to me that the converse must also be true

That very fast moving changes on the world scene
may cause some very unhelpful fluctuations on the charts

One well regarded mentor advised ' always stay hip to the market!'

that was some years ago but seems to me to be strongly
reinforced by Tony Blair's observation.

In the past you might have a system that performed reliably
like clockwork, - but that may not always be the case

the survivors may likely be those that have the mental flexibility
to be able to adapt very quickly to whatever the market
throws at them

Forex marketing has never been suited to the hard wired
intransigent mentality.

and that will prove to be even more true in the future

[wiseambitions]

And what you allude to - the behaviour of currency markets - is exactly why a dynamic strategy like fractal breakouts will continue to work well for the people who follow it, whereas every excuse I have ever heard for robots going wrong - and going wrong forever - is that they were optimised for market circumstances which have changed. Reminds me of a chap who I used to respect until it was obvious he was obsessed with back testing, hence why he had such wacky settings!

And of course I don't know whether Tony Blair would be a very good trader although he has a higher degree than most of us. Success with what we do depends on reacting fast to what we see happening on our charts, not being fast talkers.

[kiravon]

Yes we may really be entering the Day of the Fractal - in the NOW

A great Monday Morning..

six trades currently in profit.

including break of triangle and AIMS on Brent

So where to set TP?

The usual recommendation is measure the widest point of the triangle,
in this case 20 pips and place your TP 20 pips from entry point.

However in the example below it is about 18 pips, just above the 38.2 % retracement

That would seem the sensible approach in this case

However, when there has been a very strong momentum move with a triangle
consolidation pattern, if the break forms a continuation pattern it will often
make a second move a similar distance to the pre triangle move

so opening two positions would not be a bad thing, one for the max width
of the triangle and the second to be a little under the distance of the first move
but check around for Fib levels, prior support or resistance in that area first
and place TP a few pips before that

6 trades.jpg

[kiravon]

Supposing I find a Triangle but there is no AIMS level?

If you look at the screenshots below on the left we have a great Triangle pattern
on the H4 but nowhere near an AIMS level

So try looking at the LTF, in this case the H1 where we see the AIMS level
close by current price.

So simply place PO under the break of AIMS making sure that it will also
represent a clear break of Triangle on the higher TF - in this case my PO is about
8 pips under AIMS level.

tf.jpg

[kiravon]

Another Good Day for Triangles!

3 triangles.jpg

[kiravon]

Keep Progressing, Keep Improving
- and keep practicing!

One of worst things about trading late at night is first of all
falling asleep and waking up to find your account has been wiped out!

Second is being so tired you make stupid mistakes like trading 5 lots
when you intended to trade 0.5 lots

that can make a difference if you lose!

Yet another negative is that you find you need to babysit the trade
when all you really want to do is go to bed - which was my experience
last night

However on a positive note I had a fantastic H1 AIMS S2 trade resulting
in a very welcome +60 pip win

However the same trade taken one year ago would have been a break
even trade - literally.

So the point of this post isn't about last night's trade perse but about
the need to keep progressing as a trader, to absorb tips, tricks, strategies
and methods from wherever you find them. If they work consistently add
them to your trading arsenal

If they don't - drop them.

The objective is that in the end you use only the proven, tried and tested
creme de la creme of indicators and strategies - or at least the ones that
really work for you.

So the trade below is an outstanding case in point.

I entered the S2 trade at the break of AIMS - text book! No regrets.
The break came only just above Purple which can be very powerful
as we can see.

Note 1. Michael made that very observation some months ago and
I took careful note of that. His exact words 'Purple is King' - but this post
isn't about Purple it's about progressing, and learning from others.

The trade was progressing very well until the first red spiky Pin bar

What does that tell me?

One of two things

This can indicate that price will continue in the same direction if supported
by five or more consecutive AO histogram bars above zero - which was the case

Note 2. This is in essence the acclaimed Dr Geoffrey Wilde strategy - when
these wicky candles appear with a higher high and higher low and the wick is over
50% of the total length of the candle, and the candle is supported by consecutive
AO bars above or below zero this usually mean the move will continue in the same
direction.I don't trade Wilde's system nor promote it, but it is easily and profitably
incorporated into any other system - such as AIMS. Point being we can pick up
strategic gems from wherever we find them!

However - in this case it seemed more like an exhaustion candle

Price seemed to be stalling, spluttering about, and volume and momentum readings
weren't encouraging

I needed more data in order to make an informed decision whether or not
to exit. One year ago it would have been more down to guesswork.

I have a currency strength meter which is very sensitive and accurate - most
are lagging and in reality price action will usually be the indicator of where
the meter is heading - not exactly very helpful!

I don't trade currency strength, not at all. but I noted that the CS ratio of AUDJPY
during this move was around 7:1 - quite some disparity! All currency meters
read the same

All other meters kept the same reading even after the exhaustion candle appeared
indicating the candle was a 'Geoffrey Wilde' continuation pattern.

but my favoured meter differed from the rest and was now reading 7:6!!!

Something was amiss!

I took careful note of this reading - it seemed the Japs were now really fighting back!

and I didn't like this ominous pin bar - it didn't 'feel' right

I don't trade currency strength, but my meter was enough to give real cause
for concern

So I felt it was probably time to exit - but where to exit. Trail momentum bars?
there had only really been one so that didn't seem applicable

Break the other side of AIMS box would have resulted in a small loss and close
at cross of Green would have been a break even trade. This would almost
certainly have been my decision one year ago*.

( *Close over Green can literally be the very best or worst exit. If you have
been following the trend and had a really good innings it is often the best
exit strategy )

But I am a completely different trader now,

and the only reason I have left all my volumes of embarrassing posts in tact
is because it may be helpful for others to see that you can make the transition
from trading buffoon to profitability - if you are prepared to really work at it.

So back to the trade....

As I learnt from Grant, - by far the most methodical and logical of our top
traders - ( in fact Grant is literally the only highly profitable AIMS member who
I always understand - there is never any confusion or ambiguity )

as he maintains ' Exit is far more important than Entry!'

In other words, not giving it all back is key

and whilst we will never get the exit perfect every time it absolutely is the one
area that needs to be honed more than all other trading skills

So all that I have learned, researched and practiced over the last year
really put me in good stead last night

I remember many months ago noting a very unorthodox indicator
on Ray's screenshot - which comes as no big surprise as Ray is probably
not the most orthodox trader

So I started playing around with it and was amazed at just how sensitive
and accurate it was as a leading indicator.

It is actually the main component of Russ Horn's excellent Rebellion system
which I had forgotten I had tucked away somewhere.

Note 3.
I have trialed scores of systems and so often there is just one indicator
or aspect of the system that really makes it work - all the rest is just padding.
So you can cannibalize many systems and just pick the bits and pieces
you like. They are like new toys that you play with for a while before you
get bored with them. QQE ADV is one of the very few that stands out way
above the rest!

When I eventually figured out is was basically just an RSI with period 8 setting
it did rather take away the mystique

however with QQE ADV you do have the all important red signal line which
made me +60 pips last night as you can see in the following screenshots

So with all that said I thought I had better look at the trade in closer detail
on the lower time frame - the M15

Note 4.
Trading the M1 can certainly be very profitable but dropping to a LTF might
not be an option but the M1 has many advantages to compensate for that

So last night I dropped down to M15 on a separate template having noted
a reversal indication on currency strength

which on this occasion was completely confluent with what I saw on M15!

As you can see below an inside bar reversal pattern and bounce of upper trendline
whilst at the same time a confluent cross of main green line over red signal line on the
QQE ADV - which is possibly the most potent exit signal known to man! Ray knows
what I'm talking about

Whenever I see this I get out extra pronto! experience has taught me that I simply
can't afford not to!

So with all that confluence on M15 confluent with currency strength reversal I
exited for a +60 pip profit.

As you can see it was very timely

Growing as a trader, mainly from the standpoint of psychology is essential,
but learning strategies and techniques on the ground enhances profits too
and it really is an ongoing process and very satisfying.

Most of it you may not need most of the time. It's not a case of complicating
matters in an effort to be flashy or anything like that, but it's good to have
a few tools in the toolbox for when they are needed

For example I have been trading triangles last two or three weeks and on
the M15 and above I don't think I've had a single loser, I think
about three started spluttering about so I closed for a small profit

But they are so boring! ( if winning all the time can be boring! )

( although curiously every Triangle trade on M1 TF so far has
lost - no idea why that is, and even M5 only about 50% won )

Break of triangle is very mechanical and clear cut and usually
a safe 1:1 RR on the M15 and up TFs

yes it's money in the bank but I would envy the diversity of
someone who stacks supermarket shelves for a living.

I don't enjoy rents but we need a challenge to force us to
keep progressing as traders - without rents it would be too easy.

Just a few short months ago I wasn't doing great. I remember my
legendary T20 where 18 trades lost!

But even that was a milestone in my trading education - Another
great lesson I learnt from thoroughly researching all of Grant's stats

He isn't ( with very great respect ) a natural winner, but he is outstanding
at not losing!! When you get to the level that you realize that last
sentence isn't supposed to be amusing you may finally have cracked
the trading code whereby all you have to do to be extremely
successful in trading is simply have a few wins and an unlimited number
of break evens but as few rents as possible

That is by far the most profitable lesson I've learnt from Grant and possibly
in trading generally - in fact when I lost those 18:20 trades I actually closed
that T20 with a small profit! - as most were break evens or thereabouts
That surely must speak volumes!

So has the AIMS journey been worthwhile, and more importantly will
it be be profitable for newbies reading this?

Well over the last month, a little under actually, I have made almost
500% profit on demo.

but to put that into perspective, I have increased my real micro account from
105 PLN to 255 PLN during that same time period. not quite so impressive
but not bad I'm sure you'll agree

So yes the last year has been very worthwhile for me but not mainly
due to the AIMS system or indicators, in themselves they are not likely
to make you consistent profits

over 95% of the value of AIMS membership has been the community itself,
learning from some of the best traders around, the coaching from admin,
combine to make it an excellent vehicle to become consistent and
disciplined by updating your journal daily, month after month until it all
finally falls into place

The vast majority do not keep a regular journal complete with screenshots

The vast majority, 99.6%, do not succeed at Forex trading

You have the opportunity to make unlimited money and obtain financial freedom

but not without blood, sweat and tears!

It absolutely takes 100% commitment and dedication! it's a learning curve
and it can be painful at times, yes, hard work requiring a great deal
of mental effort and concentration

but If you do the work - your apprenticeship - you will succeed!

but the last word surely belongs to Ray,

'' With what we know now, haven't we got the best job in the world! ''


The above mentioned trade if taken a year ago -

reg AIMS.jpg

But now exiting near the top on the Lower Time Frame -

LTF exit.jpg

[wiseambitions]

Thanks for reminding me of something I may have said
'' With what we know now, haven't we got the best job in the world! ''

===========================================
QQE. If you act on crosses of the moving dotted line, your entries/exits are then fairly akin to the "fruit" method, while if you wait for crosses of the 50 balance line, your moves are more akin to moves taken near ZL of AO, at which time of course the trend might be changing but you have missed the first part of the move.

The more simply we can see things, then the better, IMHO, and while QQE is good, indeed really really good, I will still allow others to say fractals, boxes, alligator, dots, and awesome, in combination are the best in the world. If you had to give up one indicator for an imaginary reason I wonder what one it would be?