Kyle's Journal Mk2

[Kyle]

First session of the new week finished - and from the ashes of a dreary session comes a little nugget of gold right at the end. A bit lesson in that, which I will share at the end of this post. First, the chart.

2016-05-09_LO.png

Initially, the chart drifted down with not much to take, but gave a few signals, mostly filtered.
1. It did pull away from the channel, albeit quite slowly, and consolodated with a seed from that area. Filtered as it didn't really retrace very much. Was also trading against m5 trend, so wasn't very interested. Divergence as well.
2 and 3 did come back to gator, but eWaves not suitable for me as it was too close to a new peak and against 5 still
4. Picked up interest, although it had not pulled back much towards the Gator.
5. Another Cherry and better on eWaves as well as in line with m5. Took this second one as we also had 10000 as a good support level, and took 2R from it. Not an absolutely picture perfect trade but i think it still had a good probability of success.

Lesson from here is twofold for me.
Patience saves a lot of R's. You don't have to be in a trade to be trading, and our desired return at the end of the week is not massive, so no need to trade incessantly. Wait for your trade, stalk the pray and then hunt it down.
2nd lesson - A session can look crap and you may well decide to leave 30 minutes early, but the patient hunter will take down a few kills over a month that would otherwise be let go.

[Kyle]

OK, done for today, with no trades for NEO. Nothing really piqued my interest in the session.

2016-05-09_NEO.png

Signals
1. No breakout from channel and channel is flat as well
2. Very slight breakout and move down but still pretty much within channel and also considered not really trending. If taken, it would have hit 2R, but happy to have filtered.
3. Good breakout from channel and only one bar retrace. Also still a fair way from channel (not much of a retrace). Filtered. Depending on where you place PO and stop, 2R may have been there. I place SL 2 pips on other side of candle, and PO is 2 pips over candle, so my trade would have hit BE. Happy to have not traded it.
4. Was waiting for a W5 and signal, but this went inside channel and signalled there, so no PO. It also would not have taken a PO anyway and would have instead been cancelled.

Not much of a session, but no need to trade. Take CDLC when it occurs.

That said for The Hunt, I did miss signals on m1 for S1 setups, so must be more vigilant there as good trending opportunities have existed there the last week or so as well.

Back tomorrow at NEO.

[Kyle]

Only traded one session today. Went out for a B'day meal with family so missed LO. In the end, it sounds like LO was pretty uninspiring anyway, but I was here for NEO.

2016-05-11_NEO_hunt.png

Signals
1. Cherry after pushing through channel. not really breaking out as such and stuff all retracement, so filtered.
2. Retraced further and gave a Cherry. In the meantime, also looked at m5 and H1, which were all giving a similar short picture. Felt quite confident with it, although not a CDLC trade. Took the PO and got a rent for it. Happy to call it a DS=1
3. Seed after coming back to channel. Normally, I'd ike this, but it was quite an impulsive move back down from the peak, and coupled with an m5 seed, I decided to pass on the trade. Trades 4, 5, 6 all filtered for the same reason.
7. Cherry, but no real pullback. No interest. Same with seeds 8 and 9
10. This cherry interested me. Not the perfect pullback with zig zag type pattern, but a good strong bearish bar for the signal. No entry though. Same with 11.

I also took an S1 trade today.

2016-05-11_NEO_S1.png

1. we had an established W3 and pull back to other side of A0, indicating a W4. Nice S1 signal with nice low AIMS box prompted me to take an S1 PO. It proceeded to 1:1 where I moved SL to BE (via ATM), but it pulled back and stopped out.

So a -1R session for me and a DS of 2/2, so well traded in a difficult session. Will be back at LO tomorrow to get my hands into a great session or two

[Kyle]

Quiet LO session today. In all 5 signals, and filtered every one of them, which makes a good day of analysis, just one that did not yield any entries.

2016-05-12_LO.png

1. Channel descending for a long signal - no trade
2. A little interesting, but the price had levelled out and was not really moving much. Maybe a further move towards channel might have had me more interested. There was also some divergence there which also would filter the trade.
3. Similar to 2 but a PO would have been cancelled anyway.
4. Same as 3 and quite possibly heading to a W4 anyway.
5. Ideal in most respects, other than it had passed TZ1 on a W5, so filtered.

Of note was the A.A. just after signal 4. MZ traded it today and was a wonderful trade. Will be watching the AA's now for possible entries.

[Kyle]

OK, leaving NEO a little early. I have taken my bite out of the session and will go get some well earned sleep now. I did trade earlier than NEO open as I passed the PC and saw a nice setup. Not numbered on the chart, but easily seen. Then took one trade in NEO which was also a 2R.

2016-05-12_NEO.png

Pre NEO (not numbered) - Saw the first cherry form and thought is would be ideal if it were closer to channel. A little bit of patience and it did approach the channel and give a cherry, which I took. Very quickly went to 1:1 and secured a risk free trade, then stalled. however, patience and leaving ATM to do its thing paid off and it ran through to a lovely 2R (DS=1)
Now, in to NEO
1. Seed broke out, but did not retrace, so not interested.
2. This one did retrace to channel, so took the cherry. Two minutes later resulted in a wonderful 2R (DS=1)
3. Pulled away from gator, but did not retrace before the cherry, so did not trade it.
4. In two minds but elected not to trade as the pull back to gator was not enough for me. It could have hit 2R, and others would ahve been a DS=1, but I have defined my trading method to be a retrace back towards gator and that wasn't enough.

A great day with DS 2/2 and 2R result. Seeing some great consistency in my results. It is important to make sure it stays that way. Current T20 sits at 12/12

[Kyle]

OK, new week (sort of) with Monday being a Bank Holiday in Germany, so no trades. Missed Tuesday LO as Ryan was here, and no trades on the NEO session.

Same again for LO today - no trades. Been burning the candle from both ends a bit lately and fell asleep after LO finished, only to wake up an hour into NEO. Oops. Possibly one entry to take there, but cannot worry about missed pips when not at the screen. I did take an S1 entry though, and although it was stopped out with a heavy retrace, I think it was still traded well. Others got a 2:1 by trading it to TZ1 nicely.
So, today was a slow one, but still a good trade, with a 0.8R result

2016-05-18_NEO Hunt.png

1. Channel flat and more a cessation of up move, but not a retracement. Not a valid trade.
2. Same as 1
3. Very slight retrace, not one that I would have taken, regardless of the 2R result in the end.
4. Same as 3. I may have considered if it was a seed, then a cherry as I hold higher probability with cherries.
5. Channel now on an angle, but no retrace - no trade
6. Channel is flat, but those with higher risk appetite would have hit 2R just below TZ1

In all as said, no Hunt trades taken today.

2016-05-18_NEO S1.png

Haven't taken an S1/S2 trade in a while, and would have been great had I been in the session right from the start. Big gains there with 3.2R on initial entry, 3.1 on first add on and -1 for 2nd add on for a total of 5.1R's for the campaign.

On what I did trade though. Took a nice valid S1 coming out of a W4 down, and after 5 green candles in a row, moved SL to BE, although TM has it to trail candles - but I was happy with that move instead to give a little breathing room. After the second big bullish candle, I moved SL to just below the 2nd bullish candle, which got stopped out. I know of one other trader who kept his SL at BE, which allowed his trade to hit TZ1, which was just at 2R.

Nice little trade to get something from a missed start to the session.

Current T20 is at 13/13. Equity is also showing the rewards of better trading. Very minor target coming up within 2R's for me as well

[Kyle]

Today, across both sessions I took two trades. Unfortunately rents, but happy they were within the rules and TM guidelines, so a good day in front of the charts.
London was only a quick session as I had to go out part the way through, but I will analyse the session anyway and provide an honest account of what I would have done.

2016-05-19_LO.png

1. Was not at the screen here, but would have been seriously tempted. Only thing being the flat FO prior. The retrace was not very much. Give the nature of the candle pattern, I would have most likely not taken it (like CDLC setups). If taken, it would have been a 2R.
2. Not very interested. It was a fresh A0 peak, but was a fair distance from the channel and like a fairly full retrace back towards the channel. If taken, it would have been a -1R
3 & 4 not taken for the same reason as 2
5. Much more interested as it returned to channel.
6. Cancelled no.5 PO and placed a fresh PO. Unfortunately a rent. Only thing negative about the trade and perhaps something to look at in the future was an old A0 which returned to equilibrium, so momentum was not strong at this point. All variables outside the trade plan though. DS=1 on the trade
7 & 8 would not be considered as inside the channel. 7 also only had 1 dark bar on A0. I had left the screen by this time and my session was done.
9, 10 11 would have been a little interesting, but a return more towards channel would be preferred, so would not have taken them. If it was taken, 11 would have triggered and returned a BE for the trade.
12 would have been ignored for the same reasons as 9-11 and if already in a trade, would have been ignored still.

So, for LO, I got a -1R with DS=1. Hindsight trading would have been the same.

NEO

2016-05-19_NEO.png

1. Filtered as it is a long way from channel and a very strong bullish bar prior.
2. Still too far from channel
3. Much better cherry being closer to channel but an impulsive move up which lowered probabilities. Much prefer a clear corrective pattern. If taken, it would have been a BE trade.
4. No interest at all.
5. This would have been trading into W4, so was filtered. If taken, it could have been a 2R
6. Same as 5. If taken, also a 2R but would have been either signal 5 or 6, not both. Happy to not have taken them
7. Nicer move down from channel and pullback in hindsight maybe not big enough, but still in the trade rules. The size of pullback is discretionary, although I ahve been quite keen on a sizeable one. Took the PO and held it after it climbed above the channel with the plan to cancel if it closed above, but it pinned very nicely. unfortunately rented, but a DS=1 on the trade.
8. Nice rejection from the channel and signal. Took the PO and ended up a BE. DS=1 on this one too.
9. Not marked but a few candles after 8. Not too keen with the pin on the candle, but would have been cancelled anyway if it was taken.

So, NEO session yielded 2 trades with a result of -1R for the session, and a DS=3 out of it.

The day ended up being a -2R for the sessions and a DS of 4/4. Negative equity, but good consistent trading.

On to tomorrow B-)

[Kyle]

as a reminder of what I am trading, I am actively trading The Hunt on m1, S1/S2 setups on m1, and looking at Fruits on m5 - hoping to integrate them when the time is right for me.

Also, I'd like to add another thanks again to Steve, whose ATM has made an impossible thing entirely possible, with the application of his ATM for the m1 Hunt trading.
First session done for this week, and didn't even enter a PO. for Hunt's or S1's. there was a great prior opportunity on m5 Fruit before LO, and an equally good one during LO, but I was busy looking at potential exit on opposite fruit and didn't give enough credit to the long fruit on offer. Much to learn still. Here are the charts and explanations etc

The Hunt

2016-05-23_LO Hunt.png

1. Just after a big down move. Rubber band effect. Not interested in shorts
2. Still no interest as a long way from channel
3. Higher high and still a long way from channel. I want a cross of A0 for a reset from this point
4. Same reason as 3 above. If taken, it would ahve been a BE, and DS=1 if it was taken for the right reasons. Still not for me
5. In channel, no trade
6. Just came out of channel and as such, zero retracement. No trade
7. Not valid for me. Big breakout from channel, bugger all retracement and a long way from channel. Would have been a 2R if rules allowed it to be taken. Mine didn't and am happy with that.

S1/S2

2016-05-23_LO_S1.png

1. 37 pip AIMS. Old A0 (over 24 candles ago). No trade
2. 26 pip AIMS. No trade
3. 44 pip AIMS. No trade
4. 26 pip AIMS. Old A0. No trade
5. 21 pip AIMS. Old A0. No trade
6. 14 pip AIMS (finally). A0 is good, but way too far from purple (rubber band effect). Even if taken, the PO would have been cancelled the next bar.

m5 Fruit

2016-05-23_LO__m5_Fruit.png

1. Was in fact in between FO and LO, so would not have been possible for me. MZ took a great short from there. FO is a good place to start for m5's
2. Chatted with MZ and discussed possible exit of prior trade, he was keen on trailing fractal,a nd I mentioned that I would ahve set SL above opposite fruit if I was in it. Afterwards, I realised I mentioned opposite fruit. I should have taken more attention as it was a good one to take, especially since it offered initial entry plus 3 add ons. Had I have traded it correctly and as per my entry/mgt rules, it would have netted 3.6R's on initial entry, and 4.8, 2.6 and 1.73R's on add ons, for a total of 12.73R's on the campaign.
First entry 2 pips above fruit candle and SL 2 pips below, then wave add on with same PO and SL points, then each of the two AIMS breakouts having PO 2 pips above Box and SL 2 pips below box. Given risk of 0.5% per trade, the session on m5 could have given 6.36% return.
m5 must be watched much more closely!

Some good lessons for the day, even though it was trade free. On to NEO session B-)

[immy]

Damn good post. And yes the Fruit long and short is a 1000 points day on DAX m5. I caught the shorts, the longs and the shorts again. it was massive fun.

[Kyle]

OK, NEO session is done, and was rather boring i-) . For the most part, I waited ..... and waited ........ but eventually, my first fruit m5 trade came up, which was the only trade of the session. I'll post charts and explanations.

The Hunt

2016-05-23_NEO_Hunt.png

1. It did pull away from the channel, and it did retrace somewhat. but not keen on the very bearish bar prior. Decided to filter. If taken, it would have been a -1R. To be honest, it wasn't a real good trade to take so happy to leave.
2, 3, 4. I was in a Fruit trade at this time, so was not interested in other trades. I have decided that it would be best to watch the three methods, but be in only one trade method a a time. May be easier if ATM held every trade individually, but if you have fruits in and then go for an S1 for example, the TM in ATM will adjust all of them the same time. Back to the trade. It looked OK, however, possibly needed to return more towards the channel to be CDLC, so would have hoped to filter it.If it was traded, it would have hit -1R
5. Quite an impulsive move up, rather than corrective one, and it was mostly inside the channel. Would have filtered it. had it have been traded, it would have hit -1R

S1/S2

2016-05-23_NEO_S1.png

1. AIMS high (16 pips) so no trade. I was not at the PC then either.
2. AIMS high (19 pips) so no trade.
3. 10 Pips so AIMS was fine, however, trading into W4. I want to trade these into W3 ad W5's so no trade. If it was traded, it would have been BE if closing on opposite fruit, or around -0.6R's if closing trade when price went below green line.
There were other signals in that 2hr period, but didn't count them as the PO would not have been hit.

On to The Fruit (m5)
My first Fruit trade in this format

2016-05-23_NEO_Fruit.png

Only the one trade in the 2hr session, although Fruit should be looked at from FO right through. I will attempt to do this into the future, remembering also that todays' FO and LO would ahve easily yielded a weeks profit plus much more :-bd
1. Looking at it subjectively (hopefully :-s ), we had a large move down for a nice W3, levelled out and broke above the gator and AIMS boxes to a fruit peak. Looking at the angle etc, we had 4 bars to create the angle (need at least 3), and it had a nice angulation compared to the gator. Took the PO over the fruit candle. The PO was filled on the next candle, which in itself was a wave add-on so another PO was placed over that candle. When the AIMS box reduced in size, I placed another PO over that box, so we had the initial entry activated and two PO's waiting to be taken. It eventually took the other add-on trades and went down to a nice 4:1 pretty quickly, but lost steam. SL was not moved in stage 1 or 2, and when stage 3 came about (gator open downwards), I then adopted stage 3 MM, which was to take profit at either close above green or above AIMS box. In the end, it did close above green for a small profit (19, 6, 5 pips) and overall 1.62R's. Nothing huge to take home in profits, but I think I traded the setup pretty well, and nailed the MM on the trade. There was a consideration of closing above the fruit candle at the low, but the idea of the fruit is to let the winners run, so I stuck to the initial TM.
Doing that, it will result in some monster trades for sure.

So, closing the day out, I took one trade, with 1.62 R's from it and a DS of 1/1 for the day. the three entries on the fruit constitute one trade, so 1 DS was available for the day.

Current DS stands at 17/17

Really looking forward to, and really trying hard to achieve my first DS of 20/20