D1 Analysis for Trading Fruit H1

[immy]

I should have written about USDCAD here last week but I don't know why i did not. may be i ran out of time / energy.

Its in a down trend on D1 and we should be looking for more shorts. Particularly tomorrow, might be a Famous setup for Sam.

[robochef]

great thanks

[immy]

hey what's up, its been a while.

!	Message from: immy
	Seriously i want to do this regularly but time constraints. Lets look at EUR/USD Weekly/Daily Charts

Below is the eur/usd weekly chart. Looks like the previous analysis was right but I wondered if we were seeing some sort of 1-2. But Now i think its abc as shown below. Next we shall see on a daily chart how that C wave looks.

22-05-2016 19-19-59.png

Below is a chart of EUR/USD Daily We can see some sort of 1-5 sequence. but its not pretty which is because this wave sequence is under the umbrella of Weeklies Wave 4. When in wave 4, things on the next lower time frame looks quite range bound and not that aesthetically pleasing to the eye.

22-05-2016 19-30-08.png

If you noticed this STRONG Fruit Short Signal on the Daily chart , you've done well. And the fact that it appeared within the TZ1 and alos a possible peak of Wave c, makes it even more powerful. We are short multiple positions on the daily charts.

Now if you drop to H1 char t on teh 3rd of May 2016 you'll see that there was a strong H1 Fruit shrot there too. We took that too. It was great.

Picture of H1 chart below

22-05-2016 19-35-34.png

the short campaign was nice, but hard to hold on to during this crazy price action. However if you got kicked out, you could easily have got back in using the breakout below the FO Open line

[Kyle]

Hi all,
thought I'd start a fresh topic for weekly analysis of the pairs etc to help give direction for the coming week's Fruit H1 trades. Remebbering we are trading Fruits on H1 in the direction of D1 to increase our probabilities. This current analysis is from me, so take it with a grain of salt as I have much to learn, but it is what I see at the moment from the 16 charts that I am looking at for H1 fruit.

EURUSD - Even with masisve movement on friday, Gator is Sleeping from previous up trend. Leave alone for the week.
GBPUSD - Was in a slow up-trend, but Friday move will make gator sleep. Fundy inputs will create a lot of weakness though. Will look for shorts on it since it still closed in the lower half of the 1700 pip candle
USDJPY - Definite downtrend. Only one retrace moving A0 to upper side, but apart from that, lower highs and lower lows. Look to short during the week.
USDCAD - Has been in a big downtrend, and crossed above A0 then down again. Friday gave it a push up and closed near the top of the day's candle. Right now, no trade, but looking for it to resume shorts before long.
AUDUSD - Gator open tot he up side but feel it is more a retracement at the moment. No trades on it yet. Expectation maybe that it will head down, but no trade till Gator is pointing down as well. that will also send A0 down
Gold - nervous investors darling this week. gator open to the upside and candle closed in the top half. Looking for longs this week.
DAX - Has been in an uptrend, but the bloody British fixed that on Friday. DAX did end up higher on close than open, but I'd expect a significant gap again on Monday open and possibly head twds 9000. That is feeling and not the picture on the chart though. gator intertwining, so let's see. If it stays there, no trade. If it drops, then shorting.
WS30 - Gator closed but but down move. Will look at shorting after Gator opens to the down side as contaigon possibly hits
SP500 - Exactly the same as WS30, so out of the two, I'd take the best setup if/when it happens, but not both together.
NZDUSD - Our sheep loving cousins fared OK on friday, closing mid way on the daily candle. They are in an up-trend and Gator is still happily open. Looking to go long on the silverfern.
USDCHF - They guys with a knife for any occasion were in a downtrend to a previous support area and a-b-c'd their way back up a bit. Came down again fairly easily and gator is open down. The friday news muddied things a little and closed mid-renage, but I'd look possibly to short opportunities.
EURJPY - Gator was open before Friday and even more so now. Expect the weakness to continue. Great short candidate.
GBPJPY - Big move down friday and Gator is open tot he downside. Been in a long down trend with nice retracements. Was in a retracement heading towards A0, but Fridays news will change that I believe.. looking for shorts.
GBPAUD - That retracement up hit 61.8 Fib nicely and looks to break the lows on 15/4 and guessing will drop like a lead balloon. Trust me to move my funds from an AUD acct to a GBP one. I will look to short this through the week.
EURAUS - Lower lows and lower highs since the peak in August last year. Gator is open down and recent cross of A0. Started Friday strong but closed lower than open. Looking at shorts here too. This one looks a much better chart with more steady candles, rather than the panic of some other charts. Might be the better chart for the week.
CADJPY - Gator open down and will likely continue. eWave increasing in momentum with each lower low. Look to short.

In short, looking at the following on H1 this week

Long Gold, NZDUSD
Shorts GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, GBPAUD, EURAUD, CADJPY

[immy]

Hi Kyle

I'm excited about this topic you've started. I'll be looking forward to contributing and hopefully will create some good discussions here. thanks

[Kyle]

Sorry, no Tassie analysis last week. I spent much of it in Melbourne with my son for his school holidays. back now, so a quick look at this weeks charts for H1 Fruits - D1 analysis.

EURUSD - Gator open to the downside and in a wave 5. I'd possibly expect this to push into a new 3 given the Brexit fallout. It did try to recover some losses last week, but hit a S/R level coinciding with the gator green line and dropped back off it. EU Shorts this week

GBPUSD - Gator very much open to the downside. My GKFX acct is funded in GBP, so we can count on it dropping further still. Currently eWave says W5, but it will very soon be an extension of the 3. GU Shorts this week

USDJPY - Same as EU and GU. Was already in one hell of a down trend prior to Brexit, recovered some losses the week after, but has resumed the down trent. UJ Shorts this week

USDCAD - Has been in quite a downtrend, but now stabalised and Gator has been sleeping. Maybe considered to be just open to the upside. Further analysis on the W1 chart indicates a longer term uptrend, with a W4 pullback, so possibly will head up to a W5 on W1, but as far as D1 charts and further to H1 entries, will leave it alone for now. From another life, tick activity is not high at the lows in price, so not assumed to be wanting to go up as yet. UC No Trades this week

AUSUSD - Given we have now got a government over here (seemed to work better this last week without one to be honest) and interest rates remained stable, along with a Gator open to the up side, we could be looking at some longs. Zooming out to the weekly, and gator is sleeping, but has come off a good W3 down, and if it wants to do the right thing via eWave and fibs, longs up to around 0.81 through to 0.84 (50-61.8 Fib retracement) are quite possible. Factor this against the move out of the other currencies into USD as well though, and we will have quite a hawkish USD to also consider. AU long trades this week

Gold - With the panic on the Euro ad Pound, Gold is a bit of a safe haven, and the charts also indicate this. Currently on D1, the gator is open tot he upside, and on a W5. I'd fully expect that it could soon turn into a W3. Gold Long trades this week

DAX - Dailies has the gator open to the downside, but there is no structure behind it. Not a chart I like at all on daily. DAX No trades this week

WS30 - Our US buddies have the D1 Gator open to the upside in the start of a W5. Looks good for longs this week. WS30 Long trades this week

SP500 - Similar looking chart to the WS30. SP500 Long trades this week

NZDUSD - Very much like the Aussie, but stronger. gator open to the up side and at previous high immediately prior to Brexit. Look to go long. NU Long trades this week

USDCHF - Not a lot of structure to the daily chart, however the gator is open to the upside. I'd be happy to leave it alone. CDLC is what we like, or if you are a bit less risk adverse, longs for it. But for me, USDCHF No trades this week

EURJPY - Aligns with UJ and EU and GU as far as Euro weakness goes. Fruit on Wednesday, but almost wiped that candle's low now. Would be happy to look for shorts with the gator being well and truly open. EJ Short trades this week

GBPJPY - Gator open to the downside and similar to EJ in all repsects. GJ Short trades this week

GBPAUD - Gator open to the down side and just broken the fruit candle from thursday. Shorts here. GA Short trades this week

EURAUD - Gator to the downside, and closed at the weeks low as well. Definite shorts this week. EA Short trades this week

CADJPY - Looks just the same as the other yen pairs to be honest. Gator open to the downside and eWave momentum increasing. Shorts again. CY Short trades this week

So, in summary -
Short Trades - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, GBPAUD, EURAUD, CADJPY

Long Trades - AUSUSD, Gold, WS30, SP500, NZDUSD

No trades - USDCAD, DAX, USDCHF

[Kyle]

Slightly late with analysis this week, but here it is.

EURUSD - Gator open to the downside. In to a W5 by the looks of it, but price has returned to gator, so expect some more weakness. EU Shorts this week

GBPUSD - Similar to EU with the return to Gator after the massive Brexit move down. It is in a W3 with A0 losing momentum. In two minds. It would catch up a few more pips before a move back down in to W5, or based on the current weakness - last bar closed near the lows - it could still go down from here. GU Shorts this week

USDJPY - This one had weakness on it the last little while, but it decided to play by its own tune and has pushed through the gator. Gator lines now touching, and just moved into a W4, so possibly not a trade to take this week during this corrective phase. UJ No trades this week

USDCAD - Gator is sleeping nicely, so no longer term bias. It did move down in a massive W3 and then retraced to a W4, but them it has since been rangebound. UC No trade this week

AUSUSD - Gator it up, but we have had quite a nice Fruit short signal on this. Very weak close to last week at the lows. Conflicting info with the Gator open to the up side and short signal. May be one to leave for now. AU No trade this week

Gold - Possibly completed the peak of W5 now with gator starting to rest. I'd be happy to leave this one. Gold No trade this week

DAX - All over the place and no clear structure to it in my opinion. I'm leaving this one too (except for my m1 trades). DAX No trade this week

WS30 - Well, hasn;t this been a nice run up. Now we have a fruit short signal on it but gator open to the up side. Rubber band effect seen here. I'd guess shorts, but since my trading does not accept guesses, this will be a not trade too. WS30 Not trade this week

SP500 - Looks pretty similar to WS30 but no fruit signal. gator open to up-side. May be good for longs with the fairly healthy close last week. Long trades on SP500 this week

NZDUSD - Just completed a W3 up, and crashing through the gator. Expecting this to head back towards A0 thus creating sleeping gator. No trade here. NU No trades this week

USDCHF - I like the structure here. We have a W3 up, then cross over to a good W5, so we have found ourselves in a W5 up and minor retrace to gator and push up again. I'd be quite happy looking for longs here UC Long trades this week

EURJPY - Nice big W3 almost completed and eWave about to cross in to W4. Gator is sleepy, so will leave for a week or two where it may open up into a W5 for us. EJ No trade this week

GBPJPY - Similar in ways to EJ but not as nice a structure. Passing through Gator. Will leave alone. GJ No trade this week

GBPAUD - In a W3 down, and was tempted by the gator but was well rejected. I'd take shorts as a continuation of this W3. Just need to make sure it's over 2.00 by the time I start taking profits out of the account from this one GA Short trades this week

EURAUD - Gator pointing down and well into its downtrend. A bit of a strong bar to close the week, but I would expect it to fail still and keep dropping. EA short trades this week

CADJPY - Just completing a W5 at the moment. Might be going into a correction (a-b-c). Happy to leave this one alone. CY No trades this week

Longs - SP500, USDCHF

Shorts - EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPAUD, EURAUD

No trades - USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, Gold, DAX, WS30, NZDUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY

[immy]

Thank you Kyle...

We saw the Break of GU and EU down, Jasmien took the short into wave 5, PP took a trade on GU down. Its been good.

[immy]

We will be following the following 42 markets. Trading mostly the majors and some crosses, Some indices perhaps can be traded but mostly for watching.

My screen looks like this.

[immy]

The Fractal Geometry of our setups is amazing