Ray's amnesty page

[immy]

Agreed with Ray!

Best to Stay Safe, "Risk Averse" is my stance. I won't like nasty surprises. But I will surely play the small account on the m1 Dax or GU we shall see what happens. I have my week planned as CHILLOUT and RELAX... as usual.

[wiseambitions]

Looks like the typical margin changes of a broker mean something like the following:

GBP and EU major forex. was 1% , now changing to 5%

UK index was 0.5%, changing to 5%
European indeces changing to 4%

Gold was 1%, changing to 5%

I don't know for how long the changes are effective, but another thing is to say I would expect slippage to go absolutely crazy, and I think fortunes will be made and lost.

Personally I would say a couple days not trading real money, perhaps playing demo at best, otherwise just a minimum lot size, would be the best way of acting in one's own interests.

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In retail financial services it is not easy for many investors to move their money around. In the example of managed funds, it is far away from the case of pressing a button and getting instant execution of a trade at a known price. The way it tends to work nowadays is you write to your fund management company, which does the purchase or sale, and the price might be calculated at the end of the day based on the day's averages, and that is the deal you get, you only know the price a day or two later............ In other words it is a bit late now for people to start rearranging their portfolios into other assets. However we all know that the big dogs buy and sell again within seconds, and it is just this small fraction of all the shares that are in public ownership which get dumped or bought which determine the market price...... Oh, and will the massive computers be able to work out the indeces quick enough with all the hundreds and thousands of pips movements which will happen every time a significant bit of news comes out?


Having thought about what I've just written I think I'll stop at some time Wednesday and only watch until after the weekend!

By the way, most of the people I talk to outside of financial services want UK to leave the EU. Most people working in financial services seem to think the EU should stay. And I happen to think if there's a small majority say 0 to 3% who win the "leave" vote, then the British government won't accept the result of the people, (most of the MPs (lawmakers) are pro EU)and we will see a constitutional crisis!

That's enough from me.

[wiseambitions]

Update on the above. It would require a margin of 500 pounds to trade currency at £1 a pip.
Therefore if the account were 1000 pounds (just for the example), and one lot was traded at 20pips risk, there is your 2% risk.
It is not a good idea to trade at much more than that anyway.
On making this calculation I don't see it as a bad idea for the margin requirement (leverage) to be altered like this, it could keep people out of trouble if it was always higher than what brokers have usually offered (400:1 etc!).

------
Draghi and Yellen both making speeches this afternoon. I have decided to stop for the day.
Results so far, 9 trades, just 32 pips net, although a very respectable ROI over 5%
-14.2
14.6
-9.8
-5.8
-14.6
-12.4
1.8
23.3
49.6
To be honest I've found the morning hard work, range was about 100 pips. No clear trending. A fair amount of whip

[immy]

I don't know for how long the changes are effective, but another thing is to say I would expect slippage to go absolutely crazy, and I think fortunes will be made and lost.
Thanks. Agreed.

[wiseambitions]

One of the brokers merely wrote to me and said "Remember you don't have to trade, there are other opportunities"


The broker seems right to me. We don't HAVE to trade.

[wiseambitions]

Wednesday
I had a go at trading this morning, but it was not funny, caffeine is called for. 8 trades so far. Only 3 winners. Down 21 pips. But the interesting thing is profit is +2R which is actually a good day's work.

Money management is more important than even consistent winning, we all know it is possible to make money from zero or a negative total number of pips, and to lose from even a positive number of pips....it just seems like one of these things that is difficult to teach or show someone else, but like my strapline "If you can't explain it simply you don't understand it well enough".

A good system always eventually wins if there's the discipline to stick to it.

[baldeagle]

Actually Ray, I try to teach my poor wife things all the time to see if I really understand them.

I appreciate the lessons you have taught me through you analysis and journal.

Ed

[wiseambitions]

Here's another thought expressed by someone:

"Remember the market(Broker) will chase those SL's; such will be the volatility!"

I did used to think stop hunting by brokers (the market maker brokers) was a myth, because surely their price for all clients has to be the same at any moment in time, in other words if they closed one man's position they might well be opening someone else's pending order, which might not be their intention . I still think this is the case for brokers in countries which are properly overseen by financial regulators, however I believe brokers in other parts of the world are able to try every trick in the book. It will have been stuff like this which got FXCM fined heavily about 5 years ago.

Nevertheless in the middle of wild volatility all sorts of things can and will happen.

0800 Thursday, the market still expects no Brexit. Last evening it was looking like the opposite. Such is the casino economy in which we live!

[immy]

and now after just 2 results they have sold the pound and its slid about 700 pips ... lets see what happens next ... i'm not gonna sleep it seems. just purely excited nothing else.

[wiseambitions]

Hi, Immy, we are both awake still then....

I watched it immediately Farage spoke within the last hour and the Sunderland result

I am not trading but thinking I would like execution without slippage if I did!