Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Your ideas are always advanced Ray! and I think
most would like the 'think tank' idea.

But unfortunately at the moment only 0.5% of members
are posting, about eight of us I believe, so we don't have
too many 'party faithful' to keep us back on track if we
appear to get a bit wacky at times - although they are
still looking in and hopefully will be more active again
soon.

I really wouldn't want any newbies getting the idea
that slightly altering a setting somewhere is going
to make them fabulously rich, its really just
experimental stuff on demo -

but that said, your suggestion does seem to help
with the M5 time frame, I'm always amazed by your
insights

If you look at my sample below, the AUDUSD on M5

I've circled three breaks of AIMS. Actually none of them
were losers but look at each set up individually

When we look at the first circle it was a modest win
but looking at both E Wave histogram and QQE didn't
exactly inspire - no fresh cross of zero, so the move
might be almost over - and it was! we would have
got a modest win. Why take the risk?

Now look at the middle set up which is probably the most
interesting - a bullish S1 break which, with no other indicators
would have also given a modest win .

but if we look at the much lauded QQE ( much lauded by you
and me at least ) we see a very clean decisive cross of zero
in support of break of AIMS. However, when we look at
your intriguing combination of E Waves histogram with
MACD Fast 6 EMA superimposed, a very different picture emerges
- we don't see a clean cross of zero, rather the line goes
very flat on zero - not encouraging!

and sure enough it gave an accurate assessment - a small
win but nothing to write home about - on the shorter time
frames these subtle distinctions are surely worth paying
attention to.

But on the last set up we get our happy ending and probably
the only set up we should have traded. both Fast EMA MACD
and QQE are completely supporting the break of AIMS with
a decisive cross of zero.

and sure enough, if we had targeted TZ1 we would have made
a 40 pip profit for just a 10 pip risk and the satisfaction of
knowing we had patiently waited for the right set up.

(admittedly TZ1 hasn't been hit yet but it suggests itself as
the obvious target )

rays 6 50 50.JPG

On the second screenshot below something far less
controversial on the H1 NZDJPY

If we note the first break of AIMS we should have taken
it, waiting for E Waves cross of zero would have got us in too
late. Getting in at break of AIMS would have given us +180 pips
for 30 pips risk

The second set up is interesting, we could certainly have just taken
the break of AIMS for +326pips with 30 pip risk but some of the
Grantites amongst us might see that it would have been supported
by the retracing dip after first peak of E Waves

A very good omen indeed as price went on for another +326 pips

two more S1s.JPG

[wiseambitions]

I liked that post

Without wishing to upset the Aims disciples in saying the following, with the AUDUSD m5 please try adding the EMA of 6 and the EMA of 50 to the top window and see what that shows you.
For example I think the time to enter a short would have been around 1445, coinciding beautifully with the breaks of ZL of MACD and QQE and probably of the AO histogram as well. Nevertheless this does not really do anything that Aims S1 doesn't do, so at this point nobody thinks we're on to anything special. However this AUDUSD chart is not providing me the best example of a situation I often see, which puts me in better profit than s1, which is to say that the upward move visible around 2000hrs is not often strong enough for the 6EMA to break through the 50, and the 6 and 50 EMAs are telling me to hold tight to my short for a further ride down which is perhaps what was happening in the last bars of the Friday evening market. In this case perhaps the 6EMA was just about strong enough to give what I would see as a signal to go long, but it would not have been profitable, whereas usually it would have been telling me the downtrend was not yet finished. If following classic Aims, I guess in hindsight one might have taken profit around 3 hours after entry, with a fair 50 pips of profit, when price goes up through the alligator lips. Quite often 6,50 will keep one in a trade, for useful further profit, in spite of price sometimes retracing through the alligator, and without incurring some loss making trades in the period of indecision before a further impulsive push which brings the bonus
It's an interesting concept, but I am not wishing to belittle the Aims system, which is cleverly based on setting a PO and being taken into a trade if it breaks out, and riding it until the usual exit signal.

[kiravon]

I noted Kyle was doing well with 'Seed'?

I couldn't even remember what 'Seed' was!

But I started playing around with IBs on HTF
but incorporating some of Ray's ideas above

Sometimes you can mix and match, sometimes
you can't.

This time you can.

On the H1 below we find two consecutive IBs,
followed by a DB, this might be what some call
(or called) seeds and cherries but I'm not personally
involved in that, nor Grant's rules, filters and
questions.

Probably nothing wrong with all that, I've got them
archived somewhere, but I just don't need them.

Very simply put - what we see on the Higher H1 TF
are three bearish bars IB, IB, DB and you could place
a PO under anyone of them

If you check the two windows at bottom of chart
we have two convincing crosses of zero for confluence.

But now moving over to M5 TF for actual entry signal
we see a retest of AIMS followed by a parallel IB which
actually breaks the tradable AIMS box!

Plus we also have two crosses of zero on the lower TF
as well.

It doesn't get any better than that!

and it doesn't need to.

So entering on the LTF you have a 20 pip risk and
targeting TZ1 on LTF would give you 105 pips and if
you want to add on you could then target the very serious
support zone on the H1 chart that would give you an extra
50 pips

Personally I would just be content with TZ1 for a 1:4 RR

seedlike.JPG

[kiravon]

Back to my bread and butter system with just
one convincing win this week on the EURAUD H4.

We had nice divergence and entry was the confluence
of break of triangle and break of AIMS which if you
are trading H1 or above is absolute dynamite!

We were targeting the weekly pivot which as you
see was easily hit.

I had a rent on EURJPY this week. The pivot will
be hit providing you don't use stops. This system
needs room to breath

When I was trading the system without stops on
demo I only had one rent in three months!

But given the global instability I would not be
comfortable knowing my account could be blown
anytime so I choose to get stopped out occasionally,
I still win most of the time and more importantly
I can enjoy trading without the stress

19th.JPG

Total views of journal up to today is 5,550 - not sure if anyone is actually reading anymore.
Is this why almost no one keeps a journal on this forum? or perhaps just quiet season?

[kiravon]

I'm really just thinking out loud here, definitely not trying to save
the world.

when 'fruits' fall to the ground they often get badly bruised as
many of us can attest so its good to see Thomas weathering the
storm and approaching that strategy in such a disciplined way.
Despite my very poor record with Fruit strategy I have always
thought it made sense - price does indeed bounce back, just
like the elastic band analogy. So reading through Thomas' journal
has given me the idea for an adaptation of Fruit (more on this
later )

But my more pressing concern is the all important exit. My
system is a bit more subjective than I would like it to be.

I can easily make 50 - 100 pips per trade but some guys,
using much the same system sometimes make up to
600 pips on the very same trade!

So when do you put your TP at 100 and when 600?

I simply don't know and its galling to see that some guys
do, in fact the mentor who taught me this system has
a private syndicate that makes 360 pips a week on average
doing exactly what I do, except they know w hen to let
the trade run and I don't.

The rule of thumb is to target the midway point between
entry and the missed pivot but I think they know something
I don't.

So looking at the trade below deals with this quandary.

I'm sure everyone can see the entry is break of AIMS with
divergence - strongly supported by both window indicators.

but where to exit?

The missed pivot is 214 pips from entry so halfway would
be 107 pips. But there is no logical reason to place the TP
there other than it is the halfway point.

So what I've done is opened two positions:- the first is targeting
the weekly pivot and the prior major resistance level - two very
strong reasons for placing the first TP just above both.

There is a very high chance this TP will be hit for +79 pips.

and that is all I normally do.

But the second missed pivot is well below so t he second position
is targeting that.

We note however the pivot you can see two pivots back plus
a very noticeable area of congestion above the last pivot back,
- so I am setting my second TP above both pivots and just
above the congestion area.

If price continues past the first TP there is a good chance
it might hit the second but I am a little out of my comfort
zone here - Seriously I would be more than content with
79 pips profit but its just too sickening when I find out
others are setting their sights higher and reaping the rewards.

So I am just trying to read the charts a bit better - you never
stop learning.

We will see how it pans out.

Fruit

Returning to Fruit, I was wondering how it might be improved.
Maybe it can't be but it doesn't hurt to wonder.

I was thinking what would happen if you had a highly profitable
divergence system like mine but also incorporated the Fruit
strategy into it? The answer is I don't know yet

but if you look at my trade below I went in at break of AIMS
but what I could have done is on noting the divergence, I could
have taken the 'fruit' and then added on at break of AIMS and
still have targeted the missed pivots yielding a possible total
with the add on of +350 pips.

I have a gut feeling that Fruit with divergence could be a
powerful combination. but I may be wrong

It did just occur to me that perhaps Fruit and Divergence
are one and the same ie whenever you get one you always
get the other, but no there are many instances of Fruit
that do not have Divergence.

So this would be my initial question, instead of focusing
only on the W4 Fruits, which theoretically lead into a nice W5
but I never found helpful at all, what would happen if you just
scrap all elliott wave theory and trade only Fruits supported
by Divergence?

Its just the kind of ThinkTank speculation that Ray was referring
to although Ray himself is an EW aficionado

19th Fruit.JPG

[wiseambitions]

Hi Mickey

You're right, saying that there are only about 8 people who correspond here on their journals. As of the last 3 weeks anyway.
And out of all the hundreds who've signed up to the system! Unless they are observing and digesting what's getting said then I think they are missing out on a lot.

What do we have here? From 10 years of trading I would say more sense is talked about on this forum than on any other.
And let's remember too that Aims came from Bill Williams, some of my buddies are in his profitunity group (well it's Justine now and others that run it really) but the thing is if you have your own area of indicators on MT4 like he does, then you must be somewhat important, and worthy of taking note of.
ANd if you get the chance to look on Youtube there are some good (hour long) videos of Bill Williams talking about chaos and the power of the fractal.

It is usually the fractal which gives us the best entry (unless you get into the fruit trading concept, similar to Bill's magic bullets where the conditions of end of trend and a reversal are satisfied)

And it's thanks to Immy for relaying all this Williams stuff back to us in a simple coherent method such as S1, and a method of understanding price action which is obscure to every other fortune teller in the trade.

However the most important part of your message is really about when to get out. I'd say many of us are good at getting the entries (eg s1) but not so good at knowing when to take the avaiable profit off the table and without missing too many pips by doing that too soon.

I am no EW afficionado, however I do need to admit that if I see price touch an Ewaves fib level I ought to ask myself why I would want to continue in the trade. Immy has in the past come up with a % probability of the wave fading when the +61.8 line has been touched etc etc

There are a handful of ideas suggested on this forum, ranging from if the price goes back into the gator lips, trailing stops, opposite end of aims box etc.

Here's another one, a fairly good exit of my own discovery. Test, approve or discard, discuss, modify or whatever you like.

It's the moment when a new line of 25EMA, not shifted, goes back through the green line of the gator. As simple as that.

Now, I'm going to perhaps get in trouble for saying that, but perhaps it's no more un-aims than pivot points, trend lines, qqe, or MACD

And this IS meant to be a think tank. Even if we eventually talk ourselves back into accepting the situation we started with still has most merit!

[wiseambitions]

dax for kiravon m1 thursday.jpg

Just a bit of semi-aims fun here. Example Dax m1, Thursday morning.

In a previous post I tendered the idea that a cross of ema25 back through green (lips) of alligator can give an exit signal to take profit.
Perhaps not as good as most other signals but it isn't usually bad. (I have to admit though that the ema is never the right side of green line to start with in some trades)

Also when the 25 crosses through red (teeth) it can be a good time to enter (long if it crosses up, or short if it crosses down), but preferably the AO doesn't want to be miles away from ZL - I'd say with Dax m1 AO needs to be less than 10 - the figure is represented digitally in the AO window. It was a Williams "Profitunity" group member who acquainted me with this observation.

Here's an example of an exit, entry, exit and entry all of which I'd say offered profit potential.

[kiravon]

Plenty of food for thought there Ray!

Actually there are about 120 views per month
which isn't bad for peak Summer so over time
that is a lot of views

So there is a certain responsibility to keep
the content to a high standard which I believe
it is.

This is my best winner this week USDJPY H4, the
other is still running.

I think my exit decision is worth commenting on
in view of your observations above:-

First thing to notice is I waited for divergence
which was very convincing

in the direction of missed pivots ( two actually )

Entry was a simple break of AIMS

The 50 and 6 EMA cross was superimposed as I
thought you would probably mention it if it
wasn't included

in the event it was spot on!

The exit to me on this one was very clear,
+165 pips just shy of weekly pivot AND also
just above the prior AIMS level

I was in no mind to mess with any of those levels
and I see nothing wrong in 165 pips profit.

Now on to the yellow question mark-

if I hit the second missed weekly pivot I would
have bagged an extra 280 pips!

but in the grown up world of trading that is
unlikely to happen for a number of reasons
primarily that iceberg of a congestion area
a further 75 pips south - suggests a very
formidable area of support

As I write price has already bounced off the
upper pivot and has already reversed 80 pips so
rather than allow greed for a very small
chance of more profit I would already have given
back 50% of what I won.

This is precisely what most traders do!

Of course the original question is am I leaving
too much on the table?

Its really about getting the balance right.
Sometimes we'll get in too soon, sometimes
too late

If you notice my exit I seem to have called it just
right but it was very close! It could easily have not
quite hit TP before reversing

I agree completely about the fib levels and TZ1
is great - but again discernment!

TZ1 in this case would give you 550 pips! but
very slim chance of hitting it

Where TZ1 agrees with other exiting signs
it most certainly is worth noting - for example
if I am targeting a pivot and TZ1 is a little
before it I would always switch to targeting TZ1.

I'm away this week but I will definitely monitor
the 25 EMA exiting suggestion

Today I could see the obvious exit with clarity

but its on those other more murky occasions
that such a strategy might well pay off!

but as I write, what business do I have trading
if anything about the set up is murky?

When in doubt.. etc

Actually I place very few trades these days

I just looked at my account history - averaging
just two trades a week, invariably placed on
Monday set and forget. but still consistently 75%
win rate.

I know for a certainty that the more I trade
the more I lose! I try to trade only the very best
set ups - where it would be almost criminal to pass
them by

Still small lot sizes but as you know, if you are
making 20% or 30% per month consistently
its better to keep it small - it will soon grow

and you don't have the inhibiting fear which
will completely louse up your trading decisions

jpy2.JPG

last month.JPG

[wiseambitions]

I enjoyed your post.

I've just done a chart like yours of USDJPY h4 with MACD settings 6,50,50 and would say with hindsight (wish it could turn into foresight) that the MACD zero line cross (which is a bit faster than AO of 5/34) might have given wonderful start signals around the 11th July at 101 and exit 21st July around 106. Of course we don't use the bottom window oscillators as the actual signals but in this case they are quite good. That break of Aims after several days languishing gave a powerful jack out of the box start, upwards with vigour.

Again, I'd really suggest (Aims system notwithstanding) that you set your MACD to what I use and see if there's any difference. And I wish I had the patience to trade such high TFs and to hang on a trade with confidence for 10 days

2016-07-26_1841_dollar_yen.png

[kiravon]

yes I also wish hindsight could be foresight!

The 6 50 50 would have worked a treat on the screenshot
below for 150 pips on H1

I missed that but what I am attempting to do on
micro account is, noting MACD cross, is to enter
after break of triangle on both timeframes and
break of AIMS on M5.

Obvious TP is pivot and just under TZ1 for 64 pips
sounds about right - although this will be a good opportunity
to try the 25 over green exit strategy

Quite honestly I have very little confidence in this trade
although we have FOMC later so something should shift

I would like to take a few more trades, especially during
the winter months, its just I don't seem to do too well
on lower TFs anymore

but obviously it can be done

H1.JPG