Thomas's journal [trading The Hunt on H1]

[wiseambitions]

Just looking at your last 3 charts. At the time of entry I think I would have taken the trades based on s1 guidelines at the time, and I think it is mainly bad luck that they turned against you.
Trading is a matter of probabilities. Whatever the indicators, whatever the signals, the market does its own thing, which sometimes can be the direct opposite, however at least you limited your losses and so I hope you find it gives you the edge, and restores your profit and any lost faith in the system very soon.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 4/3

Summary

• Pair: EUR/USD
  Entry: Box breakout + Momentum Add-On + Box Add-On + Box Add-On + Box Add-On
  Risk: 20.3 P + 25.8 P + 34.8 P + 83.7 P + 36.9 P
  Exit: Box trail
  Result: 27.8 P + 22.2 P + 12.8 P - 34.9 P - 37.8 P = - 9.9 P, 1.37 R + 0.86 R + 0.37 R - 0.42 R - 1.02 R = 1.16 R
  DS: 1

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Classic Setup, pending order in bearish direction.
  • Alligator on H4 and on D1 is open to the downside.
  • eWaves indicates a completed Wave 3.
  • Price is inside a tight box with Alligator sleeping and within a possible Wave 4.
  • Aim is to hit a possible Wave 5 down, as TZ1 offers a Reward to Risk of ~ 4:1.

• Post-trade remarks:
  • Wave 5 hit its TZ1 and ended there (didn't turn into a new Wave 3).
  • Box trail (with its 10 Pips buffer) wasted some profit, as did the inobservance of TZ1.
  • The two Add-Ons right at TZ1 were too much risk. One would have been sufficient at that level.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 5/3

Summary

• Pair: USD/CHF
  Entry: Box breakout + Momentum Add-On + N/A + Box Add-On + Box Add-On
  Risk: 24.2 P + 42.4 P + 20.9 P + 30 P + 47.9 P
  Exit: Box trail
  Result: 13.3 P - 7.7 P - 12.7 P - 22.2 P - 40.6 P = -69.9 P, 0.55 R - 0.18 R - 0.61 R - 0.74 R - 0.85 R = - 1.83 R
  DS: 0

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Classic Setup, pending order in bullish direction.
  • Alligator on D1 is open to the upside.
  • Also on D1, "We have a W3 up, then cross over to a good W5, so we have found ourselves in a W5 up and minor retrace to gator and push up again." ((c) by Kyle)
  • Maybe, price is in a Wave 4, whose Wave 3 startet at 4th of July.
  • Price is inside a tight box, with Alligator sleeping (including Purple Line).
  • Aim is to hit a possible Wave 5 up, as my TZ1 offers a Reward to Risk of ~ 3:1.

• Post-trade remarks:
  • Wave 5 hit my supposed TZ1 and ended there.
  • Box trail (with its 10 Pips buffer) wasted some Pips, as did the inobservance of TZ1.
  • The second Add-On was at the correct price, but at the wrong spot (DS = 0). According to my Trading Plan, missed is missed, so this entry should have been avoided.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 6/3

Summary

• Pair: USD/CHF
  Entry: Box breakout + Momentum Add-On + N/A + Box Add-On + Box Add-On
  Risk: 24.2 P + 42.4 P + 20.9 P + 30 P + 47.9 P
  Exit: Box trail
  Result: 13.3 P - 7.7 P - 12.7 P - 22.2 P - 40.6 P = -69.9 P, 0.55 R - 0.18 R - 0.61 R - 0.74 R - 0.85 R = - 1.83 R
  DS: 0

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Fruit signal at the end of a supposed Wave 4 down, bouncing off the Purple Line.
  • Alligator on D1 is open to the upside.
  • Also on D1, "We have a W3 up, then cross over to a good W5, so we have found ourselves in a W5 up and minor retrace to gator and push up again." ((c) by Kyle)
  • Aim is to hit a possible Wave 5 up, as the TZ1 offers a Reward to Risk of ~ 3:1.

• Post-trade remarks:
  • Wave 5 hit the supposed TZ1 and ended there. My trades were kicked out before.
  • The second entry was neither a Box-, nor a Momentum Add-On. It was somehow a spontaneous decision (DS = 0), which was a result of watching the Chart continuously.

[wiseambitions]

I really do appreciate looking at your charts, good trades and bad, and your self assessments of what was going on.

Your discipline is quite good, perhaps we both fall into the same trap of adding on with trades which have just about finished their impulsive moves. Generally I think your losses would be less and your profits greater if you did not add on so much.

Looking forwards to more pictures like this and hearing that you are winning a lot more of them, it is a great pity IMHO more people don't share their experiences and observations here.

[ElBarto]

I really do appreciate looking at your charts, good trades and bad, and your self assessments of what was going on.

Your discipline is quite good, perhaps we both fall into the same trap of adding on with trades which have just about finished their impulsive moves. Generally I think your losses would be less and your profits greater if you did not add on so much.

Looking forwards to more pictures like this and hearing that you are winning a lot more of them, it is a great pity IMHO more people don't share their experiences and observations here.

Thank you, Ray, I really appreciate your input.

Adding-on too aggressive might definitely be a problem of mine.
But, to be honest, I'm not (yet) capable of estimating, whether market is just taking a breath, or its impulsive move has already ended.
Depleting losses would be desirable. However, I think this would result in many missed opportunities for big winners, too.

In my last T20s, there was always this one campagin, which equalised the previous losses and made some good profit extra.
Perhaps I was only lucky. But after my small sample of about 50 campaigns, I'm not able to judge that.

Maybe I should invest some time in backtesting.
But untill now, I don't see any reason to change my approach drastically.

[wiseambitions]

That's good. Perhaps you might develop a way of analysing your results to determine whether the best pips come from the first entry and the next 1 or 2 add ons?

I happen to think mastery would be the skill of adding on when the price retraces a little, if there is enough confidence the market is going to wind up in the intended direction, not a case of feeding the alligator.

[immy]

very Good attempt however I have to state this.
Think AVERAGE PRICE...
When you think that, what will be obvious at times is that if your add on is farther away from your previous add's on it will affect the average price. So its best to add on toward sthe start of the w ave and stop later. I think 3-4 entries is enough. In fact restrict yourself to 2 add ons max on h1. D1 can take upto 5 entries . IMHO... Great Trading and great discipline both in terms of trading and keeping your journals.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 7/3

Summary

• Pair: AUD/USD
  Entry: Box breakout + Box Add-On + Box Add-On
  Risk: 25.6 P + 48.8 P + 41.8 P
  Exit: Box trail
  Result: 2.3 P - 19.5 P - 21.6 P = - 38.8 P, 0.09 R - 0.4 R - 0.52 R = - 0.83 R
  DS: 1

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Classic Setup, pending order in bearish direction.
  • Alligator on H4 is open to the downside.
  • Alligator on D1 is opening to the downside. Price is inside the Alligator, but possibly going into a bearish Wave 5.
  • eWaves indicates a completed Wave 3.
  • Price is inside a tight box with Alligator sleeping and potentially within a Wave 4.
  • Aim is to hit the Wave 5 down, as TZ1 offers a Reward to Risk of ~ 5:1 for the first entry.

• Post-trade remarks:
  • Wave 5 was not nearly as deep as expected. It ended shortly after my second Add-On, with a valid Fruit. I could have gotten out there, but decided to keep trailing Boxes, as TZ1 was still far away.
  • Momentum Add-On was missed, as I wasn't watching out for its new Levels. Its initial Level was too close to the Box Add-On.
  • The Box, that kicked out my trades, could have been a PC, at first. A few bars later, its upper Level got broken and the PC was thus invalidated.
  • The first entry was triggered within the Asian Session. As I'm not able to be infront of the Charts to manage my trades during these hours, I start to dislike such campaigns and will try to avoid them in the future.

[immy]

An excellent post. Good trade and your trading observations are spot on. I would like to make this style of journal writing the recommended format. Perfect, thank you for doing it.