D1 Analysis for Trading Fruit H1

[immy]

USD/JPY Wave Analysis

[immy]

The end of wave 5 and 4 day move up... had to reverse it .

[immy]

[09:59:46] Immy - AIMS: Looking GU Monthly Chart, and who would have thought, "predicted" this ever so clear abc (wave 4) and the subsequent Wave 5 that is just short of its TZ1. ?? have a look

05-08-2016 10-11-28.png

[10:01:46] Immy - AIMS: so I mark the low of monthly 3 wave down, and looking a the daily chart, the brexit spike broke the low of the 3 of the monthly chart. then came right back to it the next day and 3rd day after brexit. then was pushed down, and comes back to it again 14th of july and then goes down. a typical abc pattern happening right now? who will now bet there will be another 5 down?

05-08-2016 10-12-21.png

[10:05:38] Immy - AIMS: Keeping the Monthly TZ1 study intact, draw another one at Daily chart without moving the second leg, that is keep it at 50% by default (since its not retraced enough, that is at least 38%) that TZ1 and monthly one coincides. but if you move the second let to the top of wave 4(whatever portion of wave 4 we have now, because i think it may not be a complete 4 for now, as it can still do a C up as I see wave A up, b down and perhaps C up may come or may be not) tZ1 moves further away inside the Monthly TZ1. still valid.
[10:06:26] Immy - AIMS: note that the monthly W3 peak is a VBRN.
[10:06:31] Immy - AIMS: 1.3500

05-08-2016 10-12-38.png

[immy]

Looking at that Weekly Chart again, but lets have a look at Monthly chart First
Point 1: it was not 1-2 down. (we kind of knew it didn't we?) its a big Sideways wave 4 for EU

The whole of 2014 was a good wave 3 down
almost all of this year has been wave 4, sideways ,price coming back to Gator and stayed mostly inside this monthly gator. 2015 was still showing some sideways but possibilities of some more moves down were there which did not happen.

This sideways boxed area would create a bigger range up and down waves on the weeklies and dailies

EU Monthly Aug 2016.png

Weekly Chart
The red box shows all that price action inside the boxed price during 2015 and this year we saw on the monthly chart above.

it is now clear that my past analysis made in feb this year where we happily made an "what if" assumption did not come to fruition.

In fact if you look at the 29 of Nov 2015 week bar, it bounced off the lows quite hard. setting the new direction. it was huge Bullish Outside Bar.

and where did it take the price? back to the aims box lows and eventually hitting the top of the range this year. The first week of may 2016 saw a strong Fruit down. this was off the previous peak of this wave 4 up.
This second move up, during this year, seems to have a structure of 1-5 up.

A WAVE C????

EU Weekly Waves Aug 2016.png

[immy]

Here is a EUR/USD H1 chart with apple signal.

Apple signal.png

It all looked fine but I said in the chatroom, it ticks many boxes yet I am not fully convinced. Now this might go against the principle of "Trade what you See not what you Think". And yes, that is true. If you are in Stage 1, if you are still not completely a disciplined trader then your first objective is to train for discipline. Once you achieve that, you move on to the next level where you train for trading for gains with the mighty power of discipline besides you.

There is a stage in trading when you learn to trust yourself. Because you know that while you might not be able to articulate this particular intuitive nudge this "feeling", you are sure that there are reasons that can't surface to the conscious level yet you know they are there and you trust your inner self, it will guide you.

I'm not talking in esoteric terms or mystical spiritual stuff (or may be i am after all the root of all things is philosophy) I'm just talking from the standpoint of where I am at. My perspective.

What is your perspective? Where are you?
Think of it as a peak of a mountain surrounded by thick dense forest. to get to the peak you have to trod across the forest where mighty beasts like fear, greed, procrastination, frustration, anger, overwhelm, fallacies, presumptions and assumptions sit and wait for you, they are there to hunt and prey on you.

To be successful you use your deliberate intent. For you are the beacon of Joy, Trust, Happiness and Positive Mental attitude and you go with the win/win frame of mind happily marching towards your ultimate destination.. On your way to the top. To defeat fear you embrace it, to defeat sorrow you smile deliberately and imagine the peak as if you are already there, you take a deep breath and smile and the sky brightens up. You carry your own weather inside you.

Once you are at the peak, you have a "perspective". You see things through YOUR dimension. That peak is YOURS and Yours alone no one can take it from you because its made for you and only you and its waiting for you to step on it and Claim it YOURS. YOU ARE THE PEAK.
[you may lose everything but never lose your perspective]

Apple signal a.png

[immy]

And the Next morning, it formed a Classic Breakout Setup and and Box Seed Ready for The US NEWS announcement.

A pretty good trade that went to hit TZ1 on H1. Now I should have done this analysis before hand and I might have done it already but I was not trading today or perhaps not much trading on the hourlies the rest of this month due to holidays. But if I was keen I'd have seen two important things.

First thing I should have noticed was the Target Zone one on H1. We work towards Target zone one. No matter its a classic Breakout, Apple, Seed or Cherry. The only difference is that for Apple and Classic we look to hit TZ1 into Wave 5 on Current time frame and for Hunt signals we look to hit the TZ1 that we can clearly see on the 5XLTF.

EURUSD TZ1 h1.png

The second thing I should have noticed was the bigger TZ1 that I could have drawn on the H4 time frame. You'd notice an Apple pin bar setup there on the h4 chart below. Since wave 4 retraced more than 50% TZ1 happens to be inside the length of Wave 3. but that gave us an accurate spot where price turned around big time after the news spike. Beautiful yet not very clear to me at that time. Also I was not actively trading today.

EURUSD TZ1 h4.png

[immy]

So GU did continue down, in fact almost all the daily bars have been going down. The question now is, is it a B down with clear abc down and needs a C up, or is it the Start of Wave 5 down?

Time will tell. But We should be looking for more shorts on Monday, on h1.

2016-08-12 GU D1.png

We tried this week to find some shorts, but we only found one YD, and that was 2 R for me, and BE for some. Sam could have taken more than 3 R's don't know what he did. so what did you do Sam?

[immy]

Its possible

[immy]

Look at this UJ Weekly Chart. it looks like a big strong 3 down but nearing its end.

2016-08-17_21-06-37.png

The Daily Chart says, it might be not going past this TZ1, or may be it will... all in all it was an iffy apple short for me.

[immy]

UJ Weekly Chart

http://screencast.com/t/Bp2kTNwwJ5