I set crossvine to true and pulled up the 25 EMA and 25 SMA
can't see anything at the moment but I'll check again
on Monday during live market
Great day today, two wins LO and NEO
it pays to trade at the open and not the duldrums.
the trade below is a nice example of how to get the very
most out of a good momentum move
the M5 bars were big and I didn't want to lose anything
so I switched to trailing M1 bars carefully plus close
watch on the twin MACDs
as the price action seemed to be fading the MACDs
started to cross back over - always time to get out
quick!
My recent demo account opened with $20,000 is now up
to $32,250 over 50% gain
much of that due t o stepper staking
Mickey's Journal
-
kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
AIMS Structure
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Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
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kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
The Essential Ewaves
Looking at the 25 MAs and Crossvine of Ewaves:-
entering at cross of zero when -
1) white crosses over red and
2) price crosses over both
exit when Ewaves crosses back over zero and price
crosses back over white
The no entry sign is an invalid Set up because white hasn't crossed over red
Set up 1. would have been a winner
Set up 2. lost, but you wouldn't have taken it because you already missed
the move ie price has crossed over MAs too far
entering at cross of zero when -
1) white crosses over red and
2) price crosses over both
exit when Ewaves crosses back over zero and price
crosses back over white
The no entry sign is an invalid Set up because white hasn't crossed over red
Set up 1. would have been a winner
Set up 2. lost, but you wouldn't have taken it because you already missed
the move ie price has crossed over MAs too far
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Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Mickey's Journal
Good stuff again.
Now for something else.
We all know many an indicator is sold which is "black box" in other words it has a fancy name on the outside but it doesn't tell you how it works. Some of them are also quite good, but usually let you down because there is no filtering nor properly thought out trade management.
A couple years or so back I came across some traders who were using Bill Williams in the fashion of classic setup 1 but they have never found Aims or the boxes or the dot alerts etc. Nothing wrong with that if it is basic Bill Williams, however they were using something new which they could only call "Ultra Signal". I added the .EX4 to a chart here and think I might have found out by trial and error what it's about. The dots actually join to make a moving average, and I opine it is something like 80, Linear, not shifted. The only difference between the dots and a line is that if the MA is rising the dots are blue but if falling they are red.
So a simple chart, 1) price bars, 2) Aims Boxes 3) EMA crossover arrows for 6 and 50 as per my suggestions, and 4) Ultra signal, with AO/Ewaves ad lib at the bottom.
What interests me is how closely generally the colour change (rising or falling) of the dots follows the buy or sell signal of the EMA arrows.
I think using a long MA, such as 80(linear) would be good for keeping us in a trend for quite a long time, this I always see as a place for improvement.
For example I think that green line of alligator would have closed quite a long time before highest potential profit on the big down move here was offered.
Although as with my 50 EMA it does suffer a lot of whipsaw in the ranging on the days when the price won't move. And better filtering is required (I tend to use the position of the MACD for this as well as AO crosses), but maybe also that is where a degree of your "stepping" would fit in nicely.
No particular recommendations. Nor the shunning of core aims principles. This is a think tank, so any ideas it gives you also welcome. EX4 available on request.
Now for something else.
We all know many an indicator is sold which is "black box" in other words it has a fancy name on the outside but it doesn't tell you how it works. Some of them are also quite good, but usually let you down because there is no filtering nor properly thought out trade management.
A couple years or so back I came across some traders who were using Bill Williams in the fashion of classic setup 1 but they have never found Aims or the boxes or the dot alerts etc. Nothing wrong with that if it is basic Bill Williams, however they were using something new which they could only call "Ultra Signal". I added the .EX4 to a chart here and think I might have found out by trial and error what it's about. The dots actually join to make a moving average, and I opine it is something like 80, Linear, not shifted. The only difference between the dots and a line is that if the MA is rising the dots are blue but if falling they are red.
So a simple chart, 1) price bars, 2) Aims Boxes 3) EMA crossover arrows for 6 and 50 as per my suggestions, and 4) Ultra signal, with AO/Ewaves ad lib at the bottom.
What interests me is how closely generally the colour change (rising or falling) of the dots follows the buy or sell signal of the EMA arrows.
I think using a long MA, such as 80(linear) would be good for keeping us in a trend for quite a long time, this I always see as a place for improvement.
For example I think that green line of alligator would have closed quite a long time before highest potential profit on the big down move here was offered.
Although as with my 50 EMA it does suffer a lot of whipsaw in the ranging on the days when the price won't move. And better filtering is required (I tend to use the position of the MACD for this as well as AO crosses), but maybe also that is where a degree of your "stepping" would fit in nicely.
No particular recommendations. Nor the shunning of core aims principles. This is a think tank, so any ideas it gives you also welcome. EX4 available on request.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
Ultra Signal
I think Ultra signal may have merit as some of the BW crew
obviously thought
my US doesn't have arrows but I'm not sure they help much.
If you particularly like the colour coding you can use colour 50 MA
but it's not as precise as US. I used to use it for a while when I
borrowed it from Black Dog system which isn't a very good system.
If you notice below what you can do is wait for everything to line
up. fresh cross of zero, break of AIMS, 6 crosses 50, US turns blue
now theoretically you should be in at the start of a new uptrend
whereas basic S2 you might be anywhere which of course will
give you more opportunities.
so for exit you will be seeking to follow US for as long as the trend
continues, but to fine tune, look for re cross of 6 over 50 accompanied
by reverse break of AIMS.
And we note US changes to red one bar later losing a few pips.
I think a measure of intuition and common sense must come into
play - for example at the time of exit Ewaves had already crossed
back over zero by several bars so maybe we should have got out at
the first down break of AIMS after zero.
its very easy to make these observations retrospectively and this
was a model set up
but in reality what will often happen if we get out before recross of
6 over 50 is that instead of recrossing 6 will bounce off 50 sometimes
several times before finally recrossing maybe for another 200 pips or so.
In this case 6 was making a very steep descent to hit 50/US
perpendicular - it didn't look like it was likely to bounce
but at what angle can you deduce whether it will recross for exit
or bounce on for much bigger profit?
If only we had the answer to that one!
btw in the example below, and in the interest of avoiding clutter,
you might dispense with 50 EMA and simply use cross and recross
of 6 over US supported by cross of zero and break of AIMS?
I think the merit of US is that it might keep you in the trade
longer than otherwise
but as we see in this example you could just trade cross of 6 over 50
or simply trade US assuming it doesn't repaint
or trade 'simple but powerful' strategy where gators are opened up
on CTF and HTF
That by the way is a very good strategy
obviously thought
my US doesn't have arrows but I'm not sure they help much.
If you particularly like the colour coding you can use colour 50 MA
but it's not as precise as US. I used to use it for a while when I
borrowed it from Black Dog system which isn't a very good system.
If you notice below what you can do is wait for everything to line
up. fresh cross of zero, break of AIMS, 6 crosses 50, US turns blue
now theoretically you should be in at the start of a new uptrend
whereas basic S2 you might be anywhere which of course will
give you more opportunities.
so for exit you will be seeking to follow US for as long as the trend
continues, but to fine tune, look for re cross of 6 over 50 accompanied
by reverse break of AIMS.
And we note US changes to red one bar later losing a few pips.
I think a measure of intuition and common sense must come into
play - for example at the time of exit Ewaves had already crossed
back over zero by several bars so maybe we should have got out at
the first down break of AIMS after zero.
its very easy to make these observations retrospectively and this
was a model set up
but in reality what will often happen if we get out before recross of
6 over 50 is that instead of recrossing 6 will bounce off 50 sometimes
several times before finally recrossing maybe for another 200 pips or so.
In this case 6 was making a very steep descent to hit 50/US
perpendicular - it didn't look like it was likely to bounce
but at what angle can you deduce whether it will recross for exit
or bounce on for much bigger profit?
If only we had the answer to that one!
btw in the example below, and in the interest of avoiding clutter,
you might dispense with 50 EMA and simply use cross and recross
of 6 over US supported by cross of zero and break of AIMS?
I think the merit of US is that it might keep you in the trade
longer than otherwise
but as we see in this example you could just trade cross of 6 over 50
or simply trade US assuming it doesn't repaint
or trade 'simple but powerful' strategy where gators are opened up
on CTF and HTF
That by the way is a very good strategy
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
-
kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
Ultra Signal Trend Filter
Looking at the screenshot below you would think
we have found the ultimate Holy Grail.
This is precisely the kind of cherry picking that
marketeers do to give that impression
Sadly the market doesn't go up in a nice long
trend followed by a nice long downtrend
I say sadly, of course we should actually be pleased
If everyone was simply following perfect trends all
the time and winning, where would our profit come from?
So it is survival of the fittest with very, very few survivors.
and if you were going on some arduous expedition
full of deadly hazards you would need to get into peak
mental and physical condition, and train extensively,
simulating everything you are likely to face so
you will deal with it effortlessly.
You wouldn't just try your luck, go rushing in blindly
and hope to get lucky.
so whether you get bitten by poisonous snakes, fall off
a mountain or blow your Forex account - they all
have pretty much the same common denominator
That's why professional traders keep journals - because
their survival depends on it
I actually do like the template below - but needs a lot
of testing and maybe tweaking - which I haven't done yet.
we have found the ultimate Holy Grail.
This is precisely the kind of cherry picking that
marketeers do to give that impression
Sadly the market doesn't go up in a nice long
trend followed by a nice long downtrend
I say sadly, of course we should actually be pleased
If everyone was simply following perfect trends all
the time and winning, where would our profit come from?
So it is survival of the fittest with very, very few survivors.
and if you were going on some arduous expedition
full of deadly hazards you would need to get into peak
mental and physical condition, and train extensively,
simulating everything you are likely to face so
you will deal with it effortlessly.
You wouldn't just try your luck, go rushing in blindly
and hope to get lucky.
so whether you get bitten by poisonous snakes, fall off
a mountain or blow your Forex account - they all
have pretty much the same common denominator
That's why professional traders keep journals - because
their survival depends on it
I actually do like the template below - but needs a lot
of testing and maybe tweaking - which I haven't done yet.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
-
kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
Perils of Cherry Picking
As you can see in the screenshot below, we had a cross back
over zero, reverse break of AIMS with 6 hurtling down at
right angles to US
In real time we would surely have concluded it was going to
cross and made an exit before giving too much back
The only reason we might have hung on is because US hadn't
changed colour
If we add that as a definite rule we will get the bigger moves
but often give more back.
If you are using stepper and want the 120% pm type profits
it will be by hanging in and really capitalizing on those big moves
Or you can bank smaller profits and watch your equity curve grow a
bit slower but a lot safer
It depends mainly on personality type. best thing is to really
analyze our strengths and weaknesses and choose the approach
that suits our personality best
over zero, reverse break of AIMS with 6 hurtling down at
right angles to US
In real time we would surely have concluded it was going to
cross and made an exit before giving too much back
The only reason we might have hung on is because US hadn't
changed colour
If we add that as a definite rule we will get the bigger moves
but often give more back.
If you are using stepper and want the 120% pm type profits
it will be by hanging in and really capitalizing on those big moves
Or you can bank smaller profits and watch your equity curve grow a
bit slower but a lot safer
It depends mainly on personality type. best thing is to really
analyze our strengths and weaknesses and choose the approach
that suits our personality best
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
-
kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
More on Filtering
This is just a work in progress but I would
consider the following rules predicated on
Ultra Signal not repainting beyond the
current bar
Short Entry:-
1. Ultra Signal turns red or is red if HTF indicates further downside
2. Break of AIMS
3. Cross of Zero on Ewaves etc
4. 6 EMA crosses Ultra Signal
5. Price crosses central Donchian Channel
Short Exit:-
Stay in until Ultra Signal turns blue and price and 6 EMA cross up
through Ultra Signal.
In the first screenshot on the Daily we have two set ups.
Firstly August 2015 to October for Break even, and second trade
October to present for 21,000 pips
The second screenshot is H4 from last Friday. All the rules are
met except break of AIMS.
It will be interesting to follow this live
consider the following rules predicated on
Ultra Signal not repainting beyond the
current bar
Short Entry:-
1. Ultra Signal turns red or is red if HTF indicates further downside
2. Break of AIMS
3. Cross of Zero on Ewaves etc
4. 6 EMA crosses Ultra Signal
5. Price crosses central Donchian Channel
Short Exit:-
Stay in until Ultra Signal turns blue and price and 6 EMA cross up
through Ultra Signal.
In the first screenshot on the Daily we have two set ups.
Firstly August 2015 to October for Break even, and second trade
October to present for 21,000 pips
The second screenshot is H4 from last Friday. All the rules are
met except break of AIMS.
It will be interesting to follow this live
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Mickey's Journal
You are so right about the possibility of profits doing a round trip (my words) but perhaps what we are doing with this slower moving indicator is trading like m15 even m30 on the m5......... ?
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."