Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

'Always look at the bigger picture' is a truism in life isn't it?

I'm struggling on the lower time frames and I don't know why.
It just seems whatever I do price will keep whipsawing

I have a dedicated calendar being of the mind it is not entirely profitable
to be blissfully unaware of high impact news releases, so I have a cheap
little tablet perched on a flowerpot next to my monitors, it's always on
and I don't have to remember to check for news, although actually an
audio alert would be a good idea - obviously someone must have thought of
that by now

So out of the corner of my eye I noticed USDCAD was coming up high impact
news.

So I checked OIL and noted the very nice uptrend on M30 right through
to Weekly I kid you not

So that told me it might be nice to get in on some of that action

So keenly watching USDCAD news price shot up, so monitoring the M1 I waited for it to stall
and entered short just 5 pips below highest close of candle, almost as good as it gets
- it was almost a Fruit except no qualifying candle.

Now all I need is to make 10,000 pips on the weekly TF having entered on the M1!

- and I'm adding on after every break of AIMS in case anyone was wondering what I'm still
doing on this forum

Selling at the top of an M1 News spike is really not a great system in itself if you are
looking at nothing else, it could just as easily have continued upwards.

But looking at the bigger picture, that Oil was extremely bullish on all timeframes
is what I'm really focused on. The M1 News was just a means to an end.

oil.JPG

[kiravon]

another great trade today

When you get divergence plus a bounce off 200, take the next break
of AIMS for a high probability trade

This was on the M5 EJ.

I chose to exit at prior support, seemed about right

ej.JPG

[kiravon]

I think I've been quite shocked this week over my trading results
posted over the last few years.

Anyone reading this journal ( currently 450 views per month ) should
certainly view my past results as a work of fiction!

and I may not be the only one!

its only when you open a myfxbook account do you realize just how
approximate your approximations can be.

Six days ago I opened two such accounts.

One for lower time frame trades and one for higher time frame
divergence trades.

On the lower time frames I placed 28 bets and had just 8 wins
- a 28% winning rate. My opening balance of 1,000 is now 830
down 17%

On the higher time frame divergence account I placed 4 trades
over the last week, three of them one. 75% win rate
and as you can see below my account is up 25.7% in just six days.
This is quite normal with this system, but not on any other
system I have ever traded

Looking at the losing trade it is a mystery that I placed it as
there was no discernable set up

Did I click on the wrong chart or something? we'll never know

I am very interested in News trading, maybe only the very
high impact news such as NFP, FOMC, GDP, US Core Retail
- about seven trades a month.

and the AIMS News strategy is very good. I don't remember having
had a loser with it. and its ideal for my circumstances because my
main Divergence system can take a few days so I can't be too
exposed with too many more open trades hanging around

News you're in and out in a few minutes.

If I saw a compelling triangle I would probably take it. They nearly
always win on the higher time frames and risk is minimal.

But I have an unusually profitable system, which is even winning 75%
even in this one month of the year it's known to be sub optimal.

It has in fact been tried and tested over many years and 75% - 80% is
always the norm

RR is trickier as the originator doesn't use stops. but I do, so to give
current examples;-

GBPUSD 1.5 :1
AUDJPY 4:1
USDJPY 3.3 :1
AUDCAD 2:1

but remembering that most trades do win.

It's just plain stupidity to waste so much time testing, refining, researching.

How much better do I think a system can be?

This system takes about 30 minutes Monday morning, and you can set and forget,
and its better that you do that.

I can continue playing around on demo for the rest of the week but that cannot
be acting in my own best interests as psychologically I am really telling myself
to keep trying to find the perfect strategy - and that undermines the strategy
I've already got.

25 percent.JPG

[kiravon]

A pretty decent Triangle has formed on H4 - the best TF
for triangles!

Normally this would be money in the bank but as I've caught
a cold in a heatwave following a downpour I am somewhat feverish
and wouldn't trust my judgement any further than I could throw it!

I'm absolutely not trading anything in this delirious state but you
may notice the prior support.

I would probably want to be clear of that it it breaks to the downside

Actually I have had a Buy PO since Monday as there was Bullish
divergence plus missed weekly pivots to the upside.

But I have an as yet unproven theory that unless the Divergence system
moves within a reasonable time they may simply FTL - ( Fail to launch )

Most of my trades that win do so on Monday through Thursday.

So I need to get some reliable stats on that.

But this is more or less what a triangle looks like with a potential 167 pips
up for grabs

Might be worth watching just for interest sake

Triangle Usdjpy H4.JPG

[kiravon]

A nice win this morning on GBPJPY for 69 pips.

My H4 account on myfxbook is up 35% in twelve days
My M5 account balance is + 1% but equity is down 28%!

This is the real value of resources such as myfxbook, they
can really show you where you're going wrong.

gbpjpy s24.JPG

[kiravon]

nzdjpy.JPG

I don't trade 'Fruits' but this set up caught my eye

NZDJPY H4

Missed weekly pivot, bearish divergence and further
divergence of price from Gator

I don't think the candlestick pattern is a valid fruit
but the resemblance to Fruit is incidental anyway.

There is 485 pips up for grabs here!

Not one for mystery and intrigue but twelve days ago Ray received a
bottle of champagne from his broker - and he's been mighty quiet
since! I hope it wasn't a Russian broker )

Happily Ray is still looking in so hopefully all is well

I can think of many market makers and bucket shop brokers
who would not be so accommodating of Ray's rare talent

[kiravon]

This is a little counter intuitive, trading EU H1

I'm waiting for break of AIMS but not like a blind fool,
I'm waiting especially for the trendline break. means losing an extra
five pips. I don't mind foregoing five pips where there is strong
divergence and a missed weekly pivot.

Yes it does mean trading into purple and at the moment the trend
is continuing to the downside so my PO may not be hit for a while.

eu 35p.JPG

[kiravon]

Well pleased! I have doubled my account that I opened two
weeks ago on 17th August opening balance 1,000.00
now +2,127.00

Keeping my feet firmly on the ground I now have a very different
belief about how easy it is to make at least 10% profit per month.

This is key-

I know some signal providers who are quite good but they get a lot
of negative feedback because they will post several trades a day
then suddenly disappear!

so all the newbies assume the worst and scream to paypal for a refund.

but these guys haven't defaulted at all. when the market is agreeable
they will milk it for all its worth

when it goes wild, chaotic, choppy they simply stay away

incidentally, if you check eu, uj, gu and they are all wild, it may not be smart
to persist scanning over 40 instruments until you find that perfect trend

all markets are highly interrelated and simply reflect global optimism or
global uncertainty

choppiness is uncertainty

if you feel certain about a trade when the market has no certainty about anything
then you might ask yourself why? on what basis are you confident?

Waiting for the right time to trade is essential - and it can be hard to be patient.

Nearly all my open trades below are in profit, but one trade may be worth considering
and that is AUDCHF on H4. actually I've never got on well with CHF and not even
anything to do with the SNB fiasco last year. I just don't seem to get on with it for
some reason.

I like JPY, you can often catch some great, never ending trends but I digress.

so with AUDCHF yesterday everything looked very bearish, today bullish, now it
could go either way!

but I'm already in, what to do?

Firstly its not a problem, you could say rent is well overdue!

I bought Stop down to minimize the risk. and placed SAR PO at that Stop level.

at the moment the Stop is not being hit and my original assessment seems to be holding.

So what will happen? I'm certainly not pushing my luck and I basically want to get out of this
trade as painlessly as possible

If it continues down I've targetted prior Support/AIMS as it will likely struggle to move down further.

If it does decide to move up what do you see as a great and realistic Exit? You got it - TZ1

So I will assume if we hot TZ1 I will make +27 pips minus the rent on the losing Sell trade = -30 pips
or if we continue our descent (hopefully ) we make +90 pips with no rent to pay.

I'm resigned to the trade going either way. This is trading - making the best possible assessment of
the situation and ( read Ray/Immy quote post on wiseambitions journal ) being able to adapt as things
unexpectibly change.

One big decision I had to make -

Having doubled my account in fourteen days wouldn't it have been smart to have simply cashed in my chips?

It was tempting and from a gambling point of view yes 'Quit while you're ahead'

I previously wrote a post recommending this policy

it still has merit

But all my open trades have been carefully planned, I think I need a better reason to close everything than that.

Certainly I don't want them hanging over the weekend so if there is a lull tomorrow I may close them.

100 pc.JPG

[kiravon]

Introducing Psychadelic Trading! I couldn't believe this template!

psychadelic.JPG

[baldeagle]

That's brighter than the Rainbow MMA!

Thanks for the time you take expressing your thoughts. I think it is helpful to see how others process their wins and rents. I appreciate it very much.

Ed