Mickey's Journal

[immy]

When the retracement is Less than 38%, strictly speaking then you don't have a reason to look for TZ1 but that we can use TZ1(a) instead. The question should have been what is TZ1(a). But perhaps you know what that is. Assuming you know I'll carry on to say that I used TZ1(a) alot (specially GU. That pair finds a level/zone after a strong move and does not pullback before it does the next 5, at times) but then I worked another way around it. Instead of drawing TZ1 from the start of the Wave 3 on the current TF, i'd actually draw the latest 3 within the 3, and use that 3, that would give me accurate (at least 38-50% retrace wave 4) and the next TZ1. this happens to be the same as TZ1(a) hope it makes sense, if not, Tomi might find better words.

[immy]

Oh: when the pullback is more than 50% then the scenario changes, may be its a wave 2 or may be its something else. NEXT

[Tomi]

Michael, the thing is as I put it earlier. No need to think TZ2 in that scenario. Immy started long time ago discussion in the forum about target zone after a flat wave 4 which is a wave 4 that retraces only to 23.6 area and at least less than 38.2. That was called a flat wave 4 in this specific context. We started to use TZ1(a) as a target area for wave 5 after a flat wave 4. TZ1(a) is 0.382 level in fibonacci extension tool.

Edit: this one http://itradeaims.net/forum/viewtopic.p ... 63&#p14663

As long as target is at least RR 1:2 away. It's good enough. If not..skip the trade.

To me TZ2 could start to mean a situation where wave 5 might turn to new wave 3. That changes the game but not as a target zones. More like how to interpret the moment in terms of waves and what kind of trades to look for.

No additional comments for Immy. Exactly like that. Just a sidenote that Snorm eWaves contains a feature ShowFibExp which in general works great. However, sometimes it's better to draw fibexp in the subwave (and not just from pure high/low approach) to suit better to wave count.

[baldeagle]

Tomi,

(Second Attempt)

Thanks for the link regards TZ1(a). Another bit of info I was unaware of. There is so much on this Site I think we need an index!

Ed

[kiravon]

yes got that! Thanks to all. have added 0.382 level in fibonacci extension tool in case
of a flat wave 4. done that.

Meantime, despite being covered head to toe in some heat rash - blistering +30
degrees here I'm short EURAUD

It could bounce off the rainbow that someone mentioned but there is bearish
divergence, missed pivot and a very enthusiastic break of AIMS so I'm targetting
BRN 1.48000 for 76 pips

and if 5 EMA crosses the white in rainbow might be worth putting a trail
as these Ray type trades can sometimes really travel!

rainbow.JPG

[wiseambitions]

Just going on one or two of the chart lines we might have been discussing a couple months ago.
The Donchian: not a million miles different from fractals/aims levels. To show the highest and lowest price in the previous (n) periods.
You also reminded us some donchian indicators also draw a middle line and that this could be used as an exit signal.
Now the realisation has dawned on me that such a line where n=26 happens to be significant (the Kijun Sen) for setting stop losses in an old system called Ichimoku.
And there's no denying some of these old systems actually do work, although I am not a great student of them.

What I do find interesting is that signals like donchian and fractals don't require much more than mental arithmetic, whereas MAs, alligators, fib lines AO etc do require a bit of computer processing power, I wouldn't be surprised if stuff like QQE and MACD would be almost impossible to work out other than with the microprocessor. Ichimoku will have been invented long before the PC, and the necessary calculations could with some reasonable accuracy be done by most numerate people.

Comes back round to what I so often think. Simplicity is better. I guess the super fast algorithms which do exist do work for the big dogs, but they have to have the fast execution that goes with it. I probably make less mistakes and make more money the more simplicity I see in the settings.

And yes the 6/50 EMA cross does continue to work for me, most of the time, except when it ranges, but I have found one or to filter settings which make trading starting from inside an Aims box a little bit safer than it would otherwise be.

[kiravon]

Hello Ray

Simplicity is key absolutely.

We can get ourselves tied up in knots ( and we do! )

The old computer programmers' maxim ' KISS' ( Keep it Simple Stupid )
is so apt.

Yes I am a big fan of Donchian, especially the centre band can give
context to see what is really happening

and trading can get complicated with conflicting signals, and
sometimes we find ourselves out of our depth -

I was reminded of this in our recent discussion of flat Wave 4s
and the various fib levels involved, and out of that whole discussion
the one point that really stood out, - when things start to get a
bit ambiguous and you find yourself pulling your hair out,
the solution as Immy reminded us is quite simple -

'NEXT!'

it doesn't get much more simple than that. and aborting the set up
and simply moving on is so often the most profitable thing to do.

I have a small example of that today.

on EURAUD the weekly chart in particular is very compelling, that
there should be a move down and I'm still sticking with that.

However on the lower time frames everything was indicating a
move upwards - the bounce of Rainbow that I thought could
happen

It did happen - for around 50 pips

but it should now hopefully come down for about 80 pips

but I wouldn't say this was a very straightforward trade and
I'm not sure why I entered short with so much bullish indication.

Where does trusting your trading intuition became almost arrogance?
- that inner certainty that the market will eventually see reason and come
round to your way of thinking.

As I write on H1 the price hit Rainbow and bounced off up respecting 50 EMA.

Quite predictably it is now turning around for another stab at Rainbow
but I can't know its not going to respect 50 EMA again

I really think 50 EMA will be breached today and if it does I will be
emboldened to trust my intuition even more in the future.

Intuition certainly does play a part in trading but if it flies against
common sense and hard facts 'NEXT' is probably the wiser course.

What does it take to say ' I can't be sure now, I'm out of my depth
here'

Staying out of a trade isn't conceding defeat, - on the contrary, keeping
things as simple as possible and patiently selecting only the most
straightforward set ups is the only way to avoid defeat

[kiravon]

This is a bit more straightforward

GBPAUD prior diverence x 3

price now struggling to move above prior resistance

clear break of AIMS heading down toward two missed pivots

clear, unambiguous set up

gbpaud.JPG

[wiseambitions]

"I was reminded of this in our recent discussion of flat Wave 4s
and the various fib levels involved, and out of that whole discussion
the one point that really stood out, - when things start to get a
bit ambiguous and you find yourself pulling your hair out,
the solution as Immy reminded us is quite simple -

'NEXT!'"

Yes it seems as though there are times when what starts as a valid signal no longer remains a good reason to hang into a languishing trade. The trade then turns into nothing more reliable than 50% chance of going either way, and I do agree it becomes more sensible to give up on it than turn it into a gamble. Except our heads often tell us something different!

[kiravon]

Having tested many of Ray's AIMS based strategies over the last year
there is one combination of MA's that I have found to be close to
insider trading in that it can usually predict the next spike.

Most indicators, arrows, histograms and the like give you the
signal after the spike, but none alert you in advance.

This really does!

EMA 5 exponential applied to close (red) cross of
MA 8 Linear weighted applied to open (blue)

Not sure if Ray actually recommended this cross but if not I would
have got the idea from something very similar that he had
recommended

I found this cross of MA's to be the absolute only true early warning
alert of a major spike - well in advance ( one or two bars )
and if you backtest all major spikes you will invariably find this
particular cross just before it happened.

So what's the catch?

Most times it crosses you don't get a spike, and it will often
just cross back again

But on the M1 time frame you can set your trade manager
to 5 pip SL just under AIMS usually. or adjust AIMS box setting to
5 pips

the idea is to minimize risk, as the price moves you can move stop
often to under 2 pips ( you need a broker with very tight spreads! )

You will get a lot of rents

But some of the winners go on to 40 pips or more.

For those who like their trading fast and furious this approach has a lot of
potential but you really have to have Break even in mind and view the
big wins as a bonus

But you will get them

Where do you exit?

In the screenshot below we had a 35 pip spike on the M1 time frame

Get out as soon as price looks like reversing - trail momentum

In this case get out immediately after the spike

PS I would wait for price to go very flat and congested before the
cross as this usually precedes a breakout situation

insider.JPG