Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

It will be a long time before I ever trade intraday again with real money and certainly never on
what the market might be doing on a minute to minute basis!

Currently longterm I am short UJ and long EU on my live account.

But I have been playing around with something on demo that is really taking shape.

It is taken from two sources:- Immy's Simple but Powerful strategy which simply seeks
confluence of HTF with Gators all pointing in same direction and enter break of AIMS on LTF.

This may be a very underrated strategy, overshadowed by Fruits , Seeds, Hunts etc

If there is a downside to it it might be one common to all intraday systems - no, there is nothing
insane about the strategy per se but most intraday systems are very open with regard to time -ie you
can enter any time of the day and consequently many traders are glued to the screen all day not wishing to miss
a set up

This is where loss of sanity can begin

and if trading success is 90% psychology I doubt that insanity can be very helpful.

I recently came across a system that seems to address this issue, and for that reason alone it caught my attention.

It is simply four charts H1, M30, M15, M5

The rules are simple enough, only enter obn M5 when all current candles on all four charts are the same colour

So as the H1 can only change colour on the hour you don't need to be at the screen constantly, just on the hour.

I tried it and of course the M5 will reverse and bite you on the bum more often than not

but I still liked the idea

I liked the idea of hourly confluence but without the frustrating chop of the very low time frames.

So eventually I came up with something that is actually quite good

Its not in any way technical, it still is based on 'all green candles' or 'all red candles' but I have shifted the M5 entry
to M30 - a big, big difference!

so usually this would mean four charts D1, H4, H1 M30

Now that might well be a great system but its not intraday because you can only check the D1 once a day


So I came up with a very workable compromise -

Just three charts, one less than coloured candles system but still one more than Immy's Simple but Powerful strategy.

So now it goes H2, H1, M30

Yes you need to look somewhere else for H2 - Tradeview online or download demo Ctrader free ( my preference )

So on C trader you have four H2 charts which can be as simple as you wish. We look in only every two hours to see if
a nice trend is forming and if for example a Bullish trend - is the closing candle green. If Bearish is it red?

So the Ctrader profile would look like this:-

ctrader.PNG

AS we see on USDJPY price has found resistance at 50EMA and last candle is red. it looks bearish to me

AUDUSD looks bullish and green but danger of resistance at 50 EMA

EURUSD was bullish green last candle but moving sideways

GBPUSD looks bullish but last candle closed red so no set up - rules are rules.

Now we move over to MT4 profile:-

simple.PNG

We see USDJPY is red on all TFs! and it looks like its really moving away from 50EMA on H2.

AUDUSD technically a set up - all green candles but high chance of reversal at H2 50EMA

EURUSD bullish H2 but red H1 and M30 - no set up.

GBPUSD bullish trend but red candle H2 and red also on MT4

So USDJPY looks the only set up

So now we are really back to the Simple but Powerful strategy and look to enter short at break of AIMS
on M30 with Gators pointing down, totally confluent with the H1 and H2.

So I entered and have no need to look at the screen for another two hours.

Even with no back or forward testing I know it has an edge, with the greatest benefit being you can trade
intraday but the strategy itself has a built in stress avoider - as you only look in every two hours

There is simply nothing to do in between those periods except get on with some non trading activity

Perfect!

[Hill]

try MT5. Has all TFs.
Thanks for the ideas; I like them.
I am selling USD in all majors; And also buying Yens in Crosses. all are swing trades.

[kiravon]

Thanks Hill, I've never had any experience with MT5, so I never knew that.
It might be tidier to have everything on one platform and one screen.

On my trade above I made 40 pips and I think the system has merit, if any
intraday system has merit.

But only demo or very micro account for me.

[kiravon]

One mentor I like, ( and I will never promote non AIMS mentors by name,) and he may or may not be the best trader in the world, but
he writes great articles. What appears below to me is one of his best articles to date.

In a nutshell, only trade obvious setups, never hunt for trades! and avoid the choppiness of the lower time frames. I had already come to that conclusion but reading it from another trading authority really cements it for me. In another article he explains why he never trades LTFs, apart from choppiness most brokers are liable to stop hunt and if they don't get you the big institutions know where your stops are and they will get you. If I had to describe LTFs in a word it would probably be 'erratic' . well too erratic for my taste at least, although I genuinely admire and envy guys who do seem to be able to make it pay.

Unfortunately this mentor uses the analogy of the 'Hunt' but it should be noted that he uses it in a very different context to the AIMS Hunt system. In fact he agrees completely with the 'Hunt' system mindset ie waiting patiently for the easiest prey
----------------------------


I speak with many students and traders, and one thing I have noticed is that many of them are looking for trades, almost as if they are addicted to the ‘hunt’ (because they are). Being over-eager to move on to the next trade is something that can and will destroy your trading account.

When I first started trading, I was probably a lot like you are now; I didn’t know what a good trade looked like and I was often unsure about my trading approach.

Over time, I realized that the best trades I’ve taken, tended to simply appear; I wasn’t searching for them, they simply ‘walked into my hands’. After plenty of trial and error, I finally committed to the sniper-like approach and mentality that I have now. I am never in ‘need’ of a trade, I follow the markets because I like to, and if a trade signal pops up that I like, I will trade it. I simply stopped looking for trades, and they started to find me instead. Maybe it sounds cliche, but it’s true.

I am never out there ‘hunting’ for trades. The reason why is simple, it’s because the trades that are worth risking money on, and that have the best chance of bringing you a big return, are typically so damn obvious, that there’s no way I will miss them. I don’t want to be bothered with low-probability trades that are difficult to determine whether or not they are occurrences of my trading edge.

The more you have to wonder if a trade setup is actually a valid trade setup or not, the less chance it has of working out. I know that may sound a bit subjective, but it’s true, and after you gain more training and experience, you will realize what I’m saying is accurate.

How to let trades ‘find you’…

The market will always be there

The first way to solve the problem of looking too often and too hard for trades, is to remember that the market will always be there. Take a deep breath in and exhale, remember, the market has been here before you were born and it isn’t going anywhere. There will always be new opportunities on the horizon, so don’t worry if you miss one here or there. There is no rush, you are not in a race against time or against anyone. It’s critical you understand these points and infuse them into your trading mentality if you want to succeed, because the less desperate you feel to trade, the more likely you are to succeed over the long-run.

Daily charts only
The next thing that I realized after years of trial and error, was that if I ONLY focused on the daily charts, I naturally traded a lot less. This helped me to avoid over-trading and losing money unnecessarily. I will admit, you need enough self-discipline to do this, because it’s very easy to just flip open the lower time frames and ‘see what they’re doing’ quick. But, the second you do this, you’ve broken your rules and you’re opening yourself up to the temptations of the market. Remember, you are trying to change your habits and your routine to be more productive for you over the long-run. This means you must be disciplined and fight the urge to constantly trade. The way you do this is by planning what you will do in advance and sticking to it. So, part of your plan will be only looking at daily charts, this means to make it work, you must stick to that rule.

Keep in mind, you won’t have to only look at daily charts forever, just long enough to learn that the best trades will stick out and be obvious on higher time frames like the daily.

Slower, more relaxed analysis.
Remembering that the market will be there tomorrow and to only focus on the daily charts will help you develop a slower, more relaxed approach to your chart / market analysis.

When you take a slower, more relaxed approach to your market analysis, you will be watching the charts with less attachment, the directional bias you have will not constantly change because daily and weekly charts naturally move slower than shorter time frames.

I have written extensively about this trading approach in other articles. You can check them out here: Trading like a Sniper and What Lions can Teach You About Trading. ( almost the same as AIMS Hunt system write up )

Your basic plan is to locate TLS: trend, level, signal, and eventually you will turn on the computer, load up your chart and you will see the trades either ‘jumping out’ at you, or not. When you see things lining up and it just makes sense, at that point, do not hesitate; pull the trigger.

Conclusion
When I realized that the best trades were also the most obvious ones, it changed my trading perspective and the course of my trading career forever. The fact that you don’t have to trade a lot to make a lot of money over the long-run, and that the best trades are the easiest ones to spot, seems obvious, but most traders overlook it. They are not properly trained in how to think and trade this way.

A certain level of trading knowledge / expertise must be reached before you can flip on your charts and easily see if a good trade is there. The key is, once you attain this knowledge, build a plan out of it and stick to it. Due to the fact that the trades worth risking money on will be so obvious you won’t have to look very hard for them, in a way, they will be ‘looking for you’ because they will stand out so obviously to you.

When you learn to let go from feeling like you ‘need to trade’ to just sticking to your method / edge, the charts will get a lot clearer and easier to read. This is where I am today. I can open any chart of any market and quickly analyze / scan it and tell if there’s a trade or not, in a matter of seconds usually. This is where I want you to be.

[immy]

I took a deep breath in and exhaled and felt really good... a good read.. thanks Mickey

[Hill]

Thanks for sharing; good read, indeed.

[kiravon]

Had some very urgent business to attend to last few weeks but the above post really helped. I thought I ought to make time to open some positions but I was just too preoccupied with other matters. So consequently I have only had two trades this month so far both closed at the beginning of the month for +299 pips profit on Live account.

Now if I had forced myself to trade when my attention was elsewhere how much of that 299 do you think I would have given back?

We'll never know because I didn't open the charts last three weeks or so. but I would guess a fair chunk

Last night I still felt a bit out of things but I thought I would scan the charts. First alphabetically was AUDCHF. It immediately stood out as looking like it isn't going down on all timeframes. I noted seven failed attempts to break out of the range and now price has broken up through present and prior AIMS.

Retraced nicely on Daily and looking like it now wants to resume the upward trend.

Why do I think this trade will win? The threefold answer isn't very scientific but 1) because it looks like it will 2) because it doesn't look like it will lose 3) because I don't particularly care anyway.( meaning historically I seem to win most of the time on demo or when I am totally nonchalant about outcome )

Until I get back into the swing of things I'm keeping position size very small and not much higher even after that.

Why am I only trading AUDCHF? - because it was the first one I saw alphabetically.

What about all the other currency pairs?

Why would I look at them?

I've already opened a position. I am not looking for trades

One teenage millionaire trader on Youtube said the secret of his success was that he started small and never had more than one open position at any given time. He said it doesn't matter about starting small because the account grows exponentially. Einstein figured that out. This kid is still trading from his bedroom in his mum and dad's house and doesn't appear to be especially smart.

He doesn't exactly look like someone you would look to for trading advice. But he is the millionaire trader - most of us are not.

aims feb.PNG

[kiravon]

I have found this law prove true in so many areas.

My current trade also.

Its an infuriating aspect to trading related to exit.

As you see below TP1 and TP2 are where I see resistance, at tip of tail (1)and Open of candle(11)
but TZ1 might be a possibility for +400 pips

but of course the chances of each being hit diminish with distance and +400 pips is ambitious
and I am not targeting it on this occasion.

Even TP2 is uncertain.

Possibly I should have TP1 as a hard target and if hit then have a trailing stop for second position
which may even hit TZ1.

Or trailing stop after TP1 is hit and if TP2 level is reached take some off and only leave a little
trailing in the hope of hitting TZ1

so where a pip is a dollar that could be

120 = $120
200 = $100
400 = $200
=$520

Leaving TP1 and TP2 as they are would yield just $320 but would be more likely to be hit.

I think much has to do with appetite for risk, probably both exit strategies would be ok.

I don't personally like holding out for much higher pips unless I really can see it that
level being hit.

I don't in this case

run on.PNG

[kiravon]

Happiness makes great traders

I know this is a dumb theory.

But I've found it to be true.

An angry or unhappy person can do well at trading for a while.

But a crazy happy, content person - that person can be a GREAT trader, for a long time.

Why?

A happy person doesn't need "more trades."

A happy person is satisfied with compounding small gains over time.

A happy person doesn't go for the "huge win."

I'm really talking about being "content," as in peaceful, from the inside.

How do you get there?

Here are some ideas:

Say sorry
Don't do anything you'll regret later, and if you do, see above
Work out your personal issues
Read more, listen to more, about happiness and contentment
Be more grateful, even on the bad days
Don't look for new trading systems, look for ways to do a better job with the one you have
Stay focused on something until you do it right
Take pride in your work, and do work slowly
Do something nice for someone before they ask
I know some of that sounds cheezeball.

But gosh, I'm just gonna say it: We are too focused on trading systems,

and not focused enough on "the inner system."

Success starts on the inside.
---------------------
Thought this was worth posting

Something else I came across is the book 'The ONE Thing' - absolutely riveting read
available free online. 100% relevant to trading, in fact 100% relevant to everything!

Expanding on the 80/20 principle, here are some of the gems - discipline is not necessary
for success - not in the true grit, slavish, willpower sense of the word, its the smallest
ONE thing that gets the biggest results

All you need is enough discipline to form the ONE essential habit that will lead to
success and then to quote the adage 'rinse and repeat!'

'Rinse and repeat' doesn't require extreme will power or determination.

As I was reading the book I was very much reminded of Michael Z. Arguably one of
the best traders on this forum and likely anywhere else for that matter.

Like me, you may conclude his success was the result of his being so disciplined
when actually that is a relatively small part of the equation.

I remember him once saying that there was nothing special about what he did,
he just traded at the ONE optimum time (LO) and just traded the ONE setup.

Once he got into the habit of doing that he no longer especially needed discipline.

So success is about not being scattered, finding the one thing that really matters,
putting all your focus and energy into that, to the exclusion of just about everything
else.

The writer gives the example of guitar playing

He was actually good friends with a certain guitar legend and he asked this guitar
hero what was the ONE thing he should work on in his guitar playing.

The answer was to forget about the thousands of complicated chord sequences, or learning
the countless weird and wonderful scales

Just focus exclusively on the five notes of the Blues scale - that is literally all you need
to perfect to sound like Eric Clapton. Clapton only plays five notes but he plays them
very well! He doesn't try to impress anyone with fancy chord riffs nor broaden out into
saxophone playing. He just plays the same five notes on the guitar all the time and that
is all he has ever done since the 1960's - the ONE thing!

Playing the guitar myself I immediately saw how profound that advice was

What a revelation.

I immediately saw the connection to trading

Just focus on the ONE essential thing

I just read somewhere, ' Trade S1 into a W5 '

That could be the ONE thing

Its like a race horse with blinkers - blot out everything that could distract you

there are possibly tens of thousands of indicators - you don't need them on
your charts, they are all a distraction, adding more rules and filters is the
very antithesis of the principles laid out in this book

If a system has a losing streak it doesn't need anything added, it
just needs to be reduced to its basic bare essentials and to just focus
on perfecting that.

If that sounds unconvincing or even a little controversial I probably
am not doing justice to the book

I think if you read even just the first chapter you might probably
come to this same conclusion

[arjanbg]

Great article. I notice Immy Always talks about simplicity and dicipline. For the one who like to read one thing I just found a pdf on the internet.

http://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=& ... x33B8GVDlw