Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

.

Another nice winner on Silver today. Good for a bank holiday.

There were many factors involved with this setup. Whilst it
looks like a simple break of AIMS it really wasn't.

Basically I was looking at the size of those bearish candles 12 -14 pips
compared to the bulls puny attempts to push price back up

so I simply traded the breakout under the constricted consolidation.
In this case the AIMS level perfectly agreed but it doesn't always.

Supposing there hadn't been such a strong downtrend or the red and green
candle size were more or less equal?

In which case big gamble! A break of AIMS would not save you on it's own.

The diet industry is obliged to carry the warning - to be used as part of a calorie
controlled diet.

AIMS is a bit like that. it is a genuinely useful tool which works best when it
fits in with chart reading ability. It is not a magic indicator.

Its been explained this way - blindly following rules without understanding
the underlying principles is a recipe for disaster.

I can vouch for that 100%

After going through a very bad patch trading I've been able to identify
exactly what the cause was. Due to various factors I was very distracted
for a period of time, several weeks at least.

Serious illness amongst family members over in UK was a concern
understandably, and I think I just lost my appetite for trading, so I was
more dabbling than trading.

Also I finally set to work on setting up a home recording studio here
in Poland. Before I left UK I shipped all my gear out here and its been
in storage for five years, so I made a determined effort to finally
get everything wired up. That was quite a big project.

During this period I also had presentations to prepare and deliver which
was very time consuming - and a very big preoccupation.

All these things of course are nothing out of the ordinary and I don't
think trading is the be all and end all in life, and certainly not above
family concerns.

Nevertheless it's been helpful to note the difference in my results
during periods of total distraction, and my current period of
total focus and concentration.

It isn't a coincidence.

When you have too much on your mind the charts do become as
murky as a psychologist ink blot test

nothing makes any sense

You have to be focused, and if life gets in the way of that its best
not to trade until you can give trading your full, concentrated attention.

Others may differ, but that's definitely been my experience.

I enter it in my journal in the hope that I won't keep having
to relearn the same lesson over and over

Focus is key!

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[acceleratum]

Great words, I think everyone eventually realizes that, the problem is identifying when to stop

[immy]

Hey Mickey

an interesting read. Hope family in UK gets better. Sorry to hear that.

A clear mind ,a clear vision , I wish I could maintain that at all times. It just comes and goes.

I can see clearly one moment and the next its gone. I call it the 4th wave of my mind. if you like

I'm wishing all of us "clarity".

all the best

[kiravon]

Went Long USDJPY H4 late sunday night.

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[kiravon]

and this needs caution - plotting reversals
but the amount of divergence plus cross of
EATA seemed like a compelling set up.

It did reverse for 44 pips but I didn't like
its behaviour when hitting purple -
especially as this was also the support
level of the extended consolidation
to the left.

so I got out

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[kiravon]

Can someone tell me what a Diamond 11 trader is?

I'm guessing that because I don't need to pay anyone
subscription fees in order to be profitable that I
have been recategorized.

I'm also guessing that some Forum access will still be
available for existing Premium members or there would
be no need for any designation at all, as we would
be invisible.

Hopefully none of this will affect my journal
entries over the last two years.

[acceleratum]

Its just the ranks for time that were changed so its based on how long you've been around and much posts you made, instead of the "veteran trader"apprentice" etc..
There will be forum for journals for the next foreseeable future, its just all the rest that is moving to the new website platform.

[immy]

What do you think about the new ranks? ahem, Major Kiravon

And no it won't affect your journals. All premium members are premium members with the same or a bit more access (dashboard). WE will only add more access never take back access. You are a valuable contributor to the forum. We respect your views, wishes and opinions.

[kiravon]

Never thought I'd wind up in the British army!

Yes it is an improvement and knowing higher ranks are attainable might
encourage members to post more - hopefully.

It's a pity you can't have a rewards system where members get bonuses
for reaching levels of posting.

I know one site that only releases parts of the course when you have
contributed so many posts. But AIMS is relatively simple and I
don't see how that would work.

But some kind of incentive to post would be a very good idea
for everyone.

But today was a great S1 on USDCHF. I made 50 pips and just opened
a new position targetting TZ1 for a further 20 pips. Hopefully 70 pips
in total.

I found a great new system on Youtube with an 80% win rate. I
immediately improved it and got a 100% win rate, -about ten straight
winners.

I thought if I risked 10% per trade I could buy an island somewhere in a
few weeks!

and for anyone who thinks ' surely trading can't be that easy! '

You're possibly right

The next day I had a run of losers bringing the system down
to around 50% win rate.

But the system did insist that ALL TFs had to be trending same
direction. Never heard that before.

The criteria is that on all TFs price had to be above/below EMA 50.

I also had a couple of very useful MTF indis to back that up.

I believe that part of the system is completely sound.

I also read on a forum that the Aroon indicator was more or less
a licence to print money - but only if you know how to use it.

So I thought I'd better start learning!

Sure enough it will lose you a lot of money in the wrong hands
but with persistence I can see it's potential.

I have other indicators I use to filter it and under the right
circumstances it is one of the better indicators around.

Of course no indicator is profitable in itself.

But with all my backtesting and research it occurred to me
just how subtle indicators can be

We have all been through the phase when we hoped a garish
red or blue arrow appearing would guarantee untold riches.

But there are actually some amazingly accurate indicators
out there

but the secret is knowing how to use them and relating
them to other factors such as price action, support and
resistance, trendlines etc.

There is nothing difficult about Forex trading, - just a lot of little
things you need to be very proficient at.

I lost a trade this week which really surprised me.

A post mortem revealed that whilst everything was indicating
long including MACD lives crossing over, but in my excitement
I missed the obvious! the lines were crossed but MACD was still
moving down!

How could I have missed that.

Everything really needs to line up.

The setup must have a 'feelgood factor' and nothing can be forced
or contrived.

I've also come to realize that nothing I've ever done in Forex has
been wasted.

I previously had great success trading bounces off 50 100 and 200 EMA
and whereas I don't especially do that now I am very aware that these
MAs often have a powerful influence on price as the banks and
institutions seem to put great store on them.

Again, they wont help anyone in themselves as price often completely
ignores them, seesawing up and down through them as if they weren't there.

But sometimes you see a pattern - and it can be a beautiful sight -
where for example all three EMAs converge and price hits them and bounces
off, now if you have a cross of Aroon and MACD then everything starts to
take on meaning. Invariably you will have a winning trade.

I remember once being told my a financial mentor that wealth creation
is all about the lens through which you view the world.

He never did get round to explaining that but its probably true, and
certainly, success in Forex trading is definitely all about the lens
through which you view the charts.

and whilst the Turtle trading experiment proved that trading can be
taught, nevertheless there are many things that can't so easily be taught.

I know in the past I never really knew what I was doing, to a certain
extent I was hoping for the best.

Now when I get rents I am genuinely surprised

because there is no guesswork, everything lines up, everything
is confluent and very compelling

so when the market decides not to keep doing what it had been doing
I am snapped back into the reality that there is an element of randomness.

The market can only be neat and symmetrical for a limited period before
unforeseen circumstances upset the apple cart.

This is the nature of trading.

Its like children, they can be extremely calm and cooperative -
but only for a limited period of time before they run amok!

They can be very capricious and at times quite contrary

Imagine if small children were to start managing the funds in the
major banks and institutions

Would we really notice any difference in the charts?

UCh.PNG

[kiravon]

So on the subject of looking through Forex lens I try to look
at a potential set up from different perspectives

In the example given there are three set ups

In the first S1 there is no need for the all singing, all dancing
multi coloured indicators

You have Gator sleeping, familiar territory. You have a break of AIMS
and price crosses through Gator which is starting to turn downward.
Confluent is Ewaves as we have a cross of Zero

a textbook set up

but now take a look at set up 3. The usual rules would not help us.
By the time we had a cross of zero you would have missed the move,
price immediately retraced and you would have been stopped out.

set up 2 is even worse as there never was a cross of zero!

But in set ups 2 and 3 on both occasions we had the fancy stochastics
extremely overbought followed by a cross of Aroon indicator exactly
the same time we had the break of Aims. This is extremely powerful
and reliable confluence which with practice can be extremely profitable.

and all very mechanical, nothing especially subjective about it.

Of course Ewaves is brilliant at plotting TZ1. I presume that can be replicated
without Ewaves but Ive never tried because I already have Ewaves.

We are learning all the time. I've never got on very well with stochastics,
momentum or ATR indicators.

But I chanced upon a highly regarded Binary Options program

There was a 22 minute video which seemed quite genuine. no talkover just
'Love Actually' music and the setups on the chart

It was very convincing and I could see it could be applied to Forex. This
indicator just seemed to make sense to me- the way he was using it.
Also a BRILLIANT neat little memo popping up telling you when there is high
impact News due

That could save you a fortune!

But in Forex you can take no one's word for anything. Its good to remember
that reviews and comments are submitted by traders, over 98% of whom
can't trade to save their life.

So I always try an indicator if I like the look of it.

An interesting case in point: The alleged 200% profit per month Forex Invincible
program is universally despised and maligned, particularly the EA, because it

1) blows your account
2) never gives any signals
3) Signals are very late so useless
4) Keeps repainting.

Everyone gave some variation of the above and no one awarded more than one star rating.

I obtained the Pro manual version which I immediately found amazing! especially useful are the
support and resistance lines, just two of them. and sure enough things happen at these key levels,
either a breakout of a bounce.

yes the program has its quirks and unashamedly repaints but only visually!

what do I mean by that?

When you have a signal off the key S/R level you get a prompt alert, timed and with exact level and
direction you should enter.

Absolutely brilliant!

but you don't get the arrow

not yet

Some time later the arrow will appear and be placed at the optimum spot to put the program in the best light.

But its not an issue despite what all the losers say. The alert box will keep popping up to tell you to enter
and thats all that matters. you don't actually need an arrow.

and if the arrow turns up three weeks late so what of it? Its quirky but also an amazingly powerful program.

These complainers are the same people who blow their accounts and then blacken the 'bucket shop' broker
who 'fleeced' them.

Of course there is only so much information we can take in at any given time and we can't include everything
on one template.

In the case of this indicator, if I install it my AIMS boxes all disappear!

So its on another template for another perspective.

But looking at USDCHF earlier I don't think you could go far wrong. currently all Timeframes M1 to W1 are red
- its like a lot of gravity pushing price down. I have left my remaining trade over to next week as I think there is
much more to come, and a few more add ons if everything lines up.

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