Mickey's Journal

[immy]

Nothing to add here. If there was a way to say "i LIKE it" I'll click on it. but we don't. So I have to reply and say, thank you for this lovely post. I like it.

[acceleratum]

Wow! Very nice job!. I do simpler because im lazy, and If I dont do simple I will fail to record everything Wish I could do all that instead!

[kiravon]

I looked at EJ, EU the UJ but a lot of ambiguity.

Gold actually looks very good comparing H1 with H4
but its been treacly, and only just broke AIMS as I write.

I have a 5.7 RR based on Daily Support with SL above
H1 AIMS

Looking at H4 and Daily I think there is a reasonable
chance of hitting TP, and a reasonable chance of
being stopped out too

At the monent we are 15 minutes away from a potentially nice
Bearish engulfing candle eclipsing the last seven candles.

A lot can happen in 15 minutes.....

Actually this is my first Live running commentary

In the meantime I've simplified my checklist to be a simple score out of 10
and replaced the confusing rule that requires the setup to be 'exciting' - I knew what
I meant but I don't like the gambling connotation.

So it now reads
- ' Does the setup immediately stand out as being a compelling, high probability setup?'

To me that is exciting but the wording is less ambiguous.

Also its in bold type as I believe this is the most important rule in any setup

What I mean is setups can take two forms:-

1) A setup that you keep looking at and keep willing to be a setup even when its not
2) When the setup jumps out of the charts at you and immediately looks like
a very high probability setup.

I think recognizing the dirty tricks the mind is playing can really help to avoid a lot of rents.

Back to the commentary and we got our bearish engulfing but it retreated a bit up into AIMS
and we now really need a second break of AIMS and to really drop clear of that level.

If we can clear that AIMS level I'll take a screenshot to put on my checklist, but it will only
be interim as we may not know the result until Tomorrow

Ok just this second we got a much more decisive second break of AIMS - in these cases
I feel happier when it overtakes the first break of AIMS if that makes sense, in other words
if first break moved 3 pips below AIMS and then retested back into the box I would like to
see the second break move at least 4 pips below AIMS - and of course preferably with
some momentum behind it.

We're now really trucking and well clear of AIMS

Just one of my indicators is showing a little Bullish blue which is a little strange.
I don't think it's a deal breaker because everything else is overridingly Bearish,
and if we are always looking for any slight omen we will always find one and
probably never ever actually trade at all.

INTERIM TRADE ONLY

checklist.PNG

[kiravon]

We're up over 40 pips so far but now face a minor conundrum.

As you can see on the Daily screenshot, the original TP was targeting
the Resistance zone now turned to Support marked by yellow circles.

However I never noticed the trendline on the Daily chart as usually
a factor of x 24 would not be relevant, at least not for entry criteria.

That would really seem a very likely place for price to reverse.

a little more disturbing is the short green line which is where price is
about to hit EMA 50 on the weekly chart.

Will it bounce up from there? I don't think so as the weekly chart is turning
decidedly bearish.

But I think great caution is called for regarding the trendline on the Daily.

If it seems to stall there I think it would be prudent to get out for 166 pips,
thats better than 1:3

Its a more attainable RR and after all

a bird in the hand etc

However there is no panic setting in

btw I will need to change one of my rules - 'am I free from panic and uncertainty?'

Of course I'm uncertain!

Perhaps it should read ' Am I free from panic and confusion?'

Thats much better. I am uncertain but I'm certainly not confused, as I am
simply monitoring my options. Nothing undisciplined about that

I think when we get to the trendline I will switch to a lower time frame to get
a better idea of what might be happening.

If I can get the full 1:6 RR all well and good, but I am not so opinionated to
think such a result is a foregone conclusion - it absolutely isnt.

Its still a possibility but I will proceed with caution.

res turned sup.PNG

[baldeagle]

Thanks for the link to the videos. Although I have seen this T-20 process demonstrated before on a slot machine, I don't think anyone mentioned that you don't know where you are in the process of wins and losses as they did in the video. The Power of Big Numbers!

I appreciate your expressing your train of thought as you take these trades. I find this more beneficial than just getting entries and exits. I will be interested in testing your observation of taking trades of bounces off of the AIMS box.

You are a valuable resource!

Ed

[kiravon]

Thanks ed ( and anyone else who said nice things )

I'm not getting involved with a minute by minute running commentary
on the current Gold trade. I could comment on the double inside bars
but the reality is can go either way.

For my own reasons I'm not touching the stop and if it's hit I lose 1%.

I believe Gold is going down but may need some room to breathe so
I am sticking with my original plan. Price seems to have retraced up to
20 EMA and if it respects that and now resumes original downtrend
I will be happy but it can just as easily be clinging to EMA 20 before breaking
through it to the upside.

But being detached from outcome has been the theme of one or two recent
discussions

It isn't easy

I would truthfully like to win this trade but it is really only one of twenty

In horse racing you have something called a 'Super Yankee' bet that comprises
26 separate bets although they don't all have to win for you to get a return

but the Super Yankee isn't over until the results of ALL 26 bets are known

we don't have anything like that in Forex trading and such a bet is loved
by the bookmaker because the odds are stacked against the punter.

But we do have T20's - thats our Super Yankee where the odds are 80%+
stacked in favour of the trader!!

Sounds great! What's the catch?

A Super Yankee can be over in one afternoon.

A T20 can take days or even weeks

so we don't have the excitement of anticipating a possible same day win of
our T20 which is why we may default to getting too involved with our
current trade

Its called instant gratification

We really have to change this paradigm

I am therefore incorporating T20 factors into my spreadsheet, more as a
daily reminder that my goal is to complete a disciplined T20, knowing
that the pips will then look after themselves

So the columns will display the running totals for the T20, even though
these are largely meaningless until completion, I need the constant
reminders that I'm working from one T20 to the next!

and I know for a fact that I can have a whole run of losers ( and
frequently have done! ) but still come out of a T20 with a handsome
profit.

and I'm finding a big plus to my checklist, is I read them everyday,
really inculcating the essential rules into my neuorolgy

so if there is a distant AIMS I will not be concerned with a break
of AIMS but if its in the vicinity of the setup I will definitely
wait for a clear break of AIMS

Likewise on HTF I need a clear break of zero on RSI with clear
direction - not flatlining!

If everything isn't in place wait until it is or walk away!

As regards comments section this is essential although ideally
it shouldn't be.

If the process was completely robotic everything should run like
clockwork, but I may need to mention anything that could have
been improved in order to see any negative trends developing.

George Smith is a mentor who has been trading over 60 years,
well into his eighties now, a former air line pilot.

So he goes right back to point and figure charts when you had
to enter everything with pen and paper.

He approaches trading exactly the same way he approached
flying a plane.

Before every flight he would do all the painstaking tests
on his checklist and likewise with his trading

George easily makes 6% per day but his methods aren't
easy and not for everyone. I certainly never got on with it at all
just as I have never really been able to profit from Elliott Waves,
although clearly others have.

But what I learnt from George is the value of a checklist, whether
flying a plane or trading the markets -

Without a checklist you may eventually get sloppy, and whether flying
or trading the result of that can be catastophic

[kiravon]

I think this Gold trade is going to really drop soon, it's as though
the market really wants to move but doesn't want to appear too
keen, so it keeps you guessing for a while - a bit like a woman maybe
with apologies to any female members looking in.

and we're after hours now anyway.

So what was so special about this trade? Well, we don't know if
it is special yet

but the more plusses you find, and no negatives is what we should
be looking for in a setup

I have basic system rules, as laid out in my checklist. A break of AIMS
is central, a retest of AIMS is even better.

I trade the pullback and have three systems that are remarkable in signalling
the optimal Entry point. I then note how far that Entry signal is from AIMS and
where viable I will wait a few more pips for the break of AIMS.

The three systems I use are all five star rated and have been widely acclaimed
for many, many years. They are not magic indicators and you still need
to be able to read the market, but their impeccable track record gives a
lot of confidence and when I feel down I just read all the gushing reviews.

What I have found though is that break of AIMS, even with Ewaves and Gator
seems to give a lot of false signals, at least in my personal experience.

However, when these three systems agree, and AIMS is nearby, a break of AIMS
takes on real significance, so you could say that these systems act as a filter
to filter out many of the 'fake out' break of AIMS, of which there are quite a few.

None of these systems are strictly necessary and three may seem like overkill
but the confluence of the three PLUS break of AIMS gives me a great deal of
confidence, especially with my HTF confluence.

I also consult QQE ADV and Aroon and both have their uses but they are secondary.

But after psychology, reading the market is far more important than any of these
indicators, they are probably more of a 'comfort blanket'

There are various aspects of Price Action and Candlestick formations that can be very
relevant,

In this case I noticed the OSC ( Outside Suppy Candle ) formation and that is very
powerful indeed. You can see it below on the H4 chart

You can easily spot the OSC.

1) The OSC candle Wick High price must be higher than the previous
candle's High price

2) .. and the OSC candle Close must obviously be lower than the previous candle's Wick Low price

3) The OSC candle Close price must be lower than the last four candles open and close price.

4) None of the previous four candles can have a Close price above the OSC Wick High Price.

As you can see it's a qualifying formation signalling more Supply than demand and sure enough
price dropped quite significantly.

ODC is obviously the exact reverse of the above.

When you get an ODC or OSC on the HTF a setup on the CTF is usually very strong indeed

However this formation is far more sophisticated than a simple engulfing candle and the rules
are very specific and it takes a while to confirm qualifying formations.

OSC.PNG

[kiravon]

after all the analysis, all the confluence, the Gold trade lost! It
would have won a 1:1RR for 60 pips but our target was
a realistic 1:3 which it didn't hit

Next!

Traded the EU this morning - technically not an S1 as no cross of zero
on Ewaves and gator not intertwined although running very close to
each other.

but I jumped in on the momentum which I trailed switching down
to LTF. short changed myself this time so jumped in again for
an extra 0.5%, total 2.5% but would have been more if I had
stayed in original trade until the eventual cross of MACD

Overall quite pleased with my handling of the trade.

27.6.PNG

[immy]

EUR/USD do you trade NEWS? This is a pure spike/news trading. Quite impulsive as well. Well managed but certainly not one for the inexperienced. it was triggered by "planned" draghi speech.

[kiravon]

Reviewing this trade I can't believe what I am seeing!

I didn't treat it as a News Trade because the spike didn't come for over 5 minutes
but there were plenty of entry criteria and the momentum build up was compelling.

but looking at my 'impressive' 2.5% gain which I jumped out of when MACD crossed
(and that was a very strong exit signal) after a 2.5% win!

However if I had waited for Green to cross Red I would have made 7% on the first trade alone!

I still award myself 10 for DS and I'm not going to become hypercritical. It was a good, very
well controlled trade and everything was done for a very good reason.

But I could see that Green hadn't crossed Red but actually I couldn't see it and that is very, very
interesting.

I believe my perception was clouded by the result of my last Gold trade. I was aiming for 5%
but then a support zone on a HTF which suggested a target of 3% would be safer

In the end it only made it to the 1% level before reversing for a loss.

Did one mere rent convince me unconsciously that a 2% win was unbelievably lucky or something
- so quit while you're ahead?

Actually, quitting while you're ahead is often a good policy and I don't take issue with that

what bothers me is that I was oblivious to the fact that Green and Red were still moving up
at a steep angle and running parallel to each other. I jumped out because I imagined a red candle
or something?

but I saw a cross of MACD and thats a bad sign isn't it? yes, it can be.

so was FEAR of giving back my 2% the overriding factor that caused me to jump out?

After all, my last trade made a healthy 1% before reversing on me and I didn't want anything like
that to ever happen again!

Get over it!

it is going to happen over and over again!

If I had held out for 7%, actually 14% so far and rising, it would just as likely reversed on me for another
rent, regardless of what Gator seemed to be doing.

This is a very tricky business which is child's play only in hindsight.

If I can call it right slightly more often than I get it wrong I will have an edge, and that's more than 98% have
got!

So for all the talk, am I going to be holding out for 14% Tomorrow despite all the evidence hidden in plain
view screaming at me to get out with 1%?

It really wouldn't surprise me

but I really don't think being governed by our last trade is much of a recipe for success