Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

It came from nowhere and it reminds you why a Stop is probably a very good idea!

I was stopped out for 1%

But the spike was so furious and outrageous and not even News related I felt there might
be some mileage in it.

Sure enough it went right out Bollinger Bands followed by a large Momentum candle
bringing it back into Bollingers.

As All TFs up to Monthly were Long I felt sure it was a blip, albeit registering 10 on the Richter Scale.

I took two trades back in the direction of my original trade, no averaging or Revenge trading,
nothing like that. I was prepared to accept the 1% Rent but I genuinely saw the opportunity
and there was plenty of Momentum - thats for sure.

So the last two trades, capitalizing on the Momentum, with quite small stops yielded 2%
each trade, 4% minus my original 1% rent. ending the day 3% up.

Not my ideal way of trading, thinking on my feet was good, but was I disciplined?
Considering I didn't follow any rules on the two profitable trades.

But I seized the opportunity.

Having been caught out in the open this afternoon in the worst thunderstorm I've ever
encountered, I think I will excuse myself as this Spike situation is what any insurance company
would consider an 'Act of God'. It was totally unforeseeable and it happened really fast!


So I don't have a problem with my trading, rather I have a problem with my detailed
Checklist spreadsheet which at present doesn't have an 'Act of God' column.

The original trade was textbook break of AIMS which immediately reversed, then started
to make steady progress, then got Spiked out. So that was definitely a good trade despite
losing.

The next two trades were totally intuitive with no regard for rules and made 4%.

I'm trying to be totally objective here but it isn't easy.

If if happened again would I do anything different?

No, of course not! None of the trades were taken because I felt lucky. I knew
what I was doing. I didn't see that spike as any kind of reason for price to
be reversing on all higher time frames and it didn't.

Perhaps I need to add a 'Justified Flexibility' column.

but really cannot be a licence to trade every strategy known to man on a whim

- but Today absolutely wasn't like that

Atrader has to be able to think on his feet! its all part of unconscious competence-
you simply don't have time to worry about whether you're observing all the rules

eu.PNG

[immy]

It was news related. BOE Gov and Draghi were speaking today...

[immy]

This journal is now sticky

[kiravon]

By coincidence CBS has just approached me wanting to make a soap opera
out of it.

Trading can be quite a saga

I've certainly had a saga last six days since last Thursday!

After extensive analysis I could see GU was long so I opened a position
which promptly reversed. I got out for around BE

I later could see more clearly I should have been short so I sold GU.

It then started to move up so I got out for around BE

So far I have taken six trades on GU all for around BE - a little over
or a little under and I'm starting to lose the will to live!

If it breaks the weekly high the original premise might hold true
so I'm still watching and have a PO in place.

But I'm reminded of my very recent Gold trade which was the result
of such detailed analysis and had such amazing confluence

but still lost!

Just a few minutes ago I took a glance at UJ on M5 TF and immediately
saw something significant in the histogram window. The corresponding
candle formation was also highly indicative of an imminent move up.

Total analysis took under 30 seconds!

Five minutes later I had made my 3% for the day. and now have closed
my charting platform for the day.

It seems like such a better way to trade. of course it isn't quite that
easy and LTFs can really be a swine - generally HTF is far less
erratic.

But I think it is worth noting that a winning trade on the Daily might
take two weeks or more to mature, and you might win 1% or 2%
which is quite acceptable

You might have made 200 pips or more but still only win 1% or 2%

I just made 9 pips for 3% in five minutes

I don't normally trade LTFs but I must admit getting in and out so
quickly is a great feeling - largely by contrast to the frustration
of the last few days.



btw If anyone is trading M30 and want confluence of HTF you
are stuck on MT4 because we should be looking at HTF with
a Factor 4 - 6, in other words H2 or H3.

I recommend Trading View for this, its free and it does the job
quite nicely.

[acceleratum]

There are indicators to show custom timeframes on mt4, just in case you didn't know.
google period converter indicator for mt4 for example.

[kiravon]

Thanks, that's worth knowing

[kiravon]

My USDJPY trade of last September peaked at 1,800 pips

I have now entered TP and SL.

Take profit at 1,600 pips at BRN just under next major resistance

SL under last swing low for a decent 800 pips,

I think I should hit the TP but we'll see

old jpy.PNG

[kiravon]

5. Where is your focus?

Take your focus away from the Technical Side of trading and direct it
more on the "mental" side of trading. 80% of trading success depends on
your mind.

So therefore 80% of our efforts and energies should be directed at improving
our mind - as it pertains to trading

I'm at quite an interesting place at the moment. Actually I am quite busy and
don't have either the time nor inclination to stare at the screen all day

That's good, I don't want it to hypnotize me into seeing things that aren't there

So I look in now and then nonchalantly and usually I don't like what I see

occasionally I instantly see a setup that can only be described as compelling.

they tend to win

Am I suddenly seeing ace setups I didn't see before?

not really. Its never been hard to spot a really good setup that is really moving.

The ultimate skill in trading relates to all the other setups that come close and
are in with a chance.

and my attitude to them

What was once viewed as a possible winner is now viewed as a probable syphon
just waiting to syphon money out of my account

I sort of 'do the rounds' and perhaps this is good psychology.

I periodically check my email box, check Europe News, and quickly glance
over the charts.

If I have no important emails, and there is no major news its not a big deal

Likewise if the market is stagnating I'm quite ok with that, I only check the
majors, gold and silver

In the past I would have had to check all forty currency pairs on all
timeframes until I found something half decent

Despite being picky I still can find a few setups a week

I caught one earlier on NU.

It was definitely moving down with momentum.

In the past I would been looking for 1:2 and much more if possible.

On this setup I was extremely confident of a 1:1 win but no confidence of
it running on much beyond that

'so I acted in my own best interest'

and sure enough I got my 1:1 win and it reversed almost immediately after that.

Trading can probably be summed up quite simply - trade the setups that are
screaming out to be traded and walk away from the rest.

this is what discipline is all about.

I'm getting quite good at it

the challenge is to stay quite good at it!

[kiravon]

Two articles have really hit me hard -


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo Da Vinci

Now, I’m here to tell you this:

You don’t need to know any fundamentals of the market you’re trading
You don’t need to know what the big players are doing
You don’t need to know what is pivot point
You don’t need to know what is a Crab pattern
You don’t need 6 monitors to trade
You don’t need to purchase any proprietary software, tools or indicators

------------------------

I honestly believe this - you don't actually need anything

Then I came across a forum thread ' A system for Newbies'

It was simply enter when price crosses over 30EMA - nothing else!

I checked - it did really seem to work.

The thread originator, clearly not a newbie himself, recorded all his trades,
and some were minimal BE trades, but all the others bar one were winners,
and some were spectacular winners!

so was this trader omitting all his losers? possibly but I doubt it.

Of course most traders, 98% typically will lose trading this system

so much for rules!

It soon occurred to me that the only thing standing between any trader
and immense wealth are rules - even though they are essential

??

I just looked at the euraud. Immediately I saw impulsive moves after break
of corrective structures, which as you can see amounts to break of AIMS

so the only rule we would need is just trade a break of AIMS

effectively yes

but in practice most would blow their accounts in no time by following this rule
and probably any other rule ( such as cross of 30EMA)

but there are times, quite regularly, when you can make a fortune just obeying
either of the above simple rules.

providing you know when those times are

when you can discern order and symmetry in the market it is fairly obvious
what is going to happen next

thats why, even when you first started you could often guess the right direction
even with virtually no trading know how.

It could indeed well be that the opening paragraph is true, and some of us have
spent years studying and researching totally superfluous junk!

In essence, if we just wait for the market to make a decisive impulsive move, followed
by an easily identifiable sideways corrective structure, then another impulsive move,
another corrective structure

Then, and only then, a simple rule like enter at break of AIMS, will be a very profitable
strategy.

but this all presupposes we have absolute clarity of vision - as opposed to seeing what we want
to see

and that we can resist the compulsion to add twenty extra indicators to 'confirm' the trade! This
just obscures what the market is trying to tell us.

indeed, avoid any and all complications - if the setup doesn't jump out at us it's probably because
it simply isn't a setup in the first place!

Finally, and I think we are all agreed this is the big one -

if a simple and compelling setup doesn't jump out at us, having the patience to sit on out hands
and wait until one does!

Trading should be very easy, and it surely is our psychology that lets us down every time.

So once again I feel I may need to amend my check list spreadsheet, literally to identify the
all important criteria -

Did my psychology let me down again?

Did I complicate or over indicate matters? etc

Did I patiently wait for a very simple and obvious setup to appear?

I recently wrote a particularly tedious essay on the subtle nuances of trading.
yes, I'm still sure they exist, and even in a quite chaotic market there could be
some very subtle hint that all but the trading elite would miss

so good! lets miss it! as the adage goes -

K.I.S.S.

corrective structures.PNG

[immy]

or if you just get stuck to the same template for 2-3 years. You won't need to add or remove anything after that. it will become the map that you are used to seeing. It helped me alot. I have the same template since 2010. I understand the market through that picture.

imho