Immy's Corner [The Setup The Hunt - T20's and more]

[immy]

Ever since I focused on DAX m5 Fruit Method. I can assure you I'm much more relaxed and hit much bigger trades than i did on m1.

Here is the story of the last two days of trading. http://www.itradeaims.com/2018/03/the-f ... skype.html

The M5 Catches the Days Range.png

[immy]

Something from Slack Today:
The market is simple. Its represented as a number at a given time in space. Our brokers get these quotes from the market makers / banks etc. The brokers backend feed delivers data, sent at random intervals, our platforms , in the form of ticks. A tick is the smallest unit of change. It can happen a few times per second or can remain silent for a few seconds, if there is no change. There can be as little as no ticks or as many as 500 ticks per minute at times. But averages for each market remain different for different times of day depending on how close we are to open, news times and what we call the dead periods (when humans take a break or sleep etc) Each tick is information about CHANGE and what is the quote at that instance.

We then record it using time dimension. Our platform, for us i.e Metatrader, plots this data in a form of a graph , a chart. A chart has y axis and x axis. WE plot the chart on y axis, vertical measure and compare it with x axis, horizontal measure which is time based. Charts constantly roll to the left because TIME does not STOP. because the data on x axis , that is time, is continuous but not variable this bit is a constant. But the figures on y axis, are variable.

In short, its the story of, what was the price at what time. that's all. The platform then binds the data into open high low and close points. Becasue its a time period, there is also an open, a close a high and low. But where would this be on the y axis keeps changing. that is what creates the interesting patterns.

Then we start taking averages and averages of averages, and start analysing momentum of averages, and acceleration of averages, divergences and what not etc etc.

Often, by the time we are done doing all this, the picture is distorted from a simple 1 point data to numerous forms. The purpose at times is defeated.


The question arises, Why do we do all this to the simpler for of data?

because of one thing. WE want to see patterns within Randomness. Market changes its quotes constantly and randomly. Its Chaos. ITs mostly random.

Basically, the market is a natural phenomenon. It stays in the form of random noise almost 70-80% of the "the time".
Noise, or randomness is hard if not impossible to predict. The only way you can find an edge in the market is if there is order.

The Good News is that it does find Order from time to time. And it must do that because that is the structure of the universe. No form of energy remains completely out of order for a prolonged period of time. There is randomness but there is order within it.

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Chaos is the name of Order within Randomness.

In the universe, if there was no order, there would be no mathematics.

Maths does not measure randomness effectively, at least not with Euclidean geometry, not with linear mathematics.
When you take averages, you take averages of Randomness to Create ORDER.

You do that to create patterns. Since our trading is mostly visual, we like to see patterns that are "visible to the human eye".

in doing so, you start to see patterns, (order) that repeats itself over multiple time frames. Because markets are chaotic in nature and have fractal geometry, it must be that any pattern that you see on one time frame, it must repeat itself on multiple time frames. If that is not the case, this pattern may not be reliable.

Ss soon as you've found one type of pattern that you can see in multiple charts over multiple time frames, you have confirmed some sort of statistical edge. There are several different types of patterns and edges in the market. But the one that is universal and shows itself on almost any chart you can find, is what is popular under the Nickname of Elliott Wave. Now, the Elliotticians would tell you that it is 100% accurate. But we all know it only shows a probability of one thing happening over the other. thats all.

So, having created your charts and patterns, now you can manipulate risk strategies using simple mathematical models. This would allow you to extract profit from the market by risking less and gaining more over the period of a batch of trades.

Profit can be extracted by trading a repeating pattern, even with as low as 15% win rate. However,
The Setup1, gives us, (including BE trades) an overall 60% Plus Win rate. that is PHENOMENAL.

The win rate of Fruit method is low. But it does not matter. Why? Because we have learned to use a specially designed Risk Management that converts this pattern into a highly profitable strategy. By applying a specific risk method and position sizing technique the sum total of losses is way smaller compared to the sum total of winners. That is the name of the game.

The fruit method is pure Chaos Trading.

People often ignore the fact that Setup1, (1RSL move to BE at plus 1R exit at 2R TP) is designed ONLy for discipline training.

Its so designed so that you have a very objective method while you still learn about the market and may even make sprofit. keeping in view that profit is not the objective of the T20 Discipline Training. Discipline is The Objective

Profit is a byproduct of Trading Correctly

ps:
I must add here, one thing is missing. If you'd like to increase profitability of your methods, first ensure 100% DS. once that is under your belt, there are Risk Managment methods that you can utilise to increase your profits. e.g. the second step of Setup 1 trading is to learn to let your trades run. and so when you start doing that you won't be using the 1RSL2RTP1RBE Trade management method.

Instead you will apply a different method. e.g. you'll start tailing the box, or the green line, or you'll exit at TZ1. to let it run you have to be ready for some pullbacks too. so you won't move SL to BE at 1R. instead you can sell half at 1R and leave SL at original position and simply trail box.

once that is done, you'll now learn to add on to your trades one time, you can do that by using the next available boxes, s2 boxes.
so on and so forth. But the first question is DO I KNOW HOW TO TRADE CORRECTLY WITH 100% DISCIPLINE?

[immy]

USD/JPY was the only one that had structure so chose it for M1 Fruit Reversal...

I was going in with no expectations. Took initial pics step by step while sharing in the Trading Room.

Then i hit Box Trail and left for gym.

[immy]

Well this is what a B trap can do to you....
The ran my Stop by a pip or two and then dropped allday....

oh well

[immy]

Latest Blog Post - Todays DAX m5 trades
http://www.itradeaims.com/2018/05/the-f ... fruit.html

EUR/JPY H4 an interesting Fruit
If one looked at the D1 chart this would have been easier to trade.

2018-05-18_16-11-56.png

on the H4 there was a B trap Fruit. Meaning peak of Wave 2 possible 5 of 5 down.

2018-05-18_16-10-23.png

Likewise if you h ad that information but you trade the H1 time frame. Then this setup would be a good attempt to short it. Notice that hte angle is not awesome but the supporting information you gained from fractal geometry would give this some extra odds.

[immy]

THE Usdjpy has been going up nicely. If its a 3 up, here is a breakdown of the 3 using the 4 hourly chart

[immy]

THE Usdjpy has been going up nicely. If its a 3 up, here is a breakdown of the 3 using the 4 hourly chart

Update on the post above. You can see in the picture below that the above 1-5 completion was pretty spot on. Market did actually take a turn and dropped. On D1 it produced a Fruit signal that you could have taken to short it. Although its clear now that its a Wave 4 of the D1 wave cycle. So 5 up may follow.

2018-06-06_11-06-31.png

Moreover The H1/M5 concept ...

We can trade the M5 by finding setups on the H1 chart so cutting down the Chart time and maximising profits

Here is an example of H1/M5 on EUR/JPY that happened today

[immy]

We need to know patterns in the market that repeat itself so we can benefit from them by predicting what's about to happen next. We can do that by breaking the pattern in two halves. We look for presence of half the pattern and then project the next part, that has a certain higher probability of happening.

One such pattern is the Setup 1.

We can then find another pattern inside which we can find this setup 1. Again here we'll find one pattern , half of it, on a higher time frame, and drop to lower time frame to benefit from the rest of hte pattern that's about to happen in near future.

The main objective here is to be able to find something that takes less screen time but maximum potential of profits.

The H1/M5 Pattern

1. You wait/.or Spot a couple of Impulse candles
2. You wait for 1 or 2 consolidation candles
3. Inside these 2hrs of sideways you'll find a setup 1 forming on m1. Which means, the 1-2 impulse candles of H1 might look like a Wave 3 on M5. Teh 1-2 sideways candles on h1 might translate into Wave 4 on m5.

This is what we call Push - Pull - Push Again = Elliott Wave in half a line

H1-M5-1.png

The same pattern can repeat itself when volatility hits the market. e.g. these USDCAD news today at 1.30pm uk 29 June 2018

H1-M5-2.png

and on M1 you saw the impulse wave turn into a wave 3, the corrective candles of m5 turned into wave 4 on m1.

What followed was your trade of Wave 5 into TZ1.

H1-M5-3.png

USDCAD H1 Yesterday produced one certain pattern. On H1 it was not tradeable. But we knew its moving .

H1-M5-4.png

Drop to M5 to cath the 5 down.

H1-M5-5.png

Finally to sum it up..

This pattern is Fractal Geometric which means it will exist on all time frames otherwise it will fail.

So you can find it on

W1/H4
D1/H1
H1/M5
and
M5/ M1

[immy]

Here is GU Example... All on the chart below

GU H1-M5.png

Click to Open The Result of the Trade

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GU H1-M5 -2.png

[immy]

A Setup 1 is a Setup 1 but Wave count makes it BETTER

S1-1.png

S1-2.png

S1-3.png

S1-4.png