Joel's Fruit Campaigns

[raklian]

Hey y'all, I'm starting a new journal all over again with the intention of trading the fruit strategy. I've been catapulted directly to Stage 3 from Stage 1 for some mysterious reason, but Immy said I was ready for it, so here I am!

I'm attaching a revised trading plan customized for trading the fruit strategy. It's not 100% complete but it covers a lot, with enough detail so I know whether or not I've achieved DS1 for the day by following the trading plan. I hope to complete it within a week or two.

I just reread the Fruit Strategy ebook in entirety this time. The fruit strategy overall seems simple enough but there are nuances in it I need to learn for which I will be trading fruit campaigns to internalize them so they become second nature to me.

At this juncture, I will only trade the DOW on M1 during the first two or three hours of the New York session. Needless to say, I'll be going through the wringer in the next few weeks as I get the handle of the strategy. For learning purposes, I'm going to be keeping a maximum of three positions, each at 0.01% risk, for each campaign. EDIT: Fixed lots now at 0.01, 0.02, and 0.01 for maximum three positions. My trading plan states I will follow this management style for three batches to achieve at least 80% discipline score after which I will increase the risk per trade appropriate for the fruit strategy outlined in the ebook.

[raklian]

Trade: B1-C1
Date: 1/14/2019
Pair / TF: DOW M1

1 - I missed the opportunity to go short Fbox break during open play. At the time, I was thinking the box was too big but later realized it was only distorted due to the market being slow and moving in a tight range before NEO. I need to learn what happens before NEO doesn't have a direct bearing on what happens after NEO.

2 - Same as above but for long above break of Fbox. For the next few weeks, I will need to watch open plays and learn how DOW moves within the first moments after NEO. I will make comments about them if need be.

3, 4 & 5 - short Fruit entries. I was strongly influenced by the fact I missed the long Fbox breakout when I was focusing on trying to get a trade and looked to trade fruits to short this move up. Later Immy informed me that DOW is strongly trending and must trade accordingly, in which point looking for fruits to short was ill-advised. I made an unfounded assumption that a strong move up strongly increases the likelihood of imminent reversals using fruits. It's all about the overall pattern, and turns out this wasn't a good time to short until a very clear fruit signal happens. The price is largely parallel to the gator and there was no "out-of-the-ordinary" angulation and sudden strong move to the upside.

6 - Fbox break short. I was thinking the whole move up may be exhausted and start going down. The gator intertwined and price broke through the bottom box level. I put a PO there and short trade was triggered. It turned around and I got out at break of AIMS box to the upside. I'm not sure if this is a good trade or not. Immy?

7 - Long entry; at the time I thought I would trade into Wave 5 but in hindsight, it made no sense nor it matched up with rules for this kind of setup. The gator didn't even get the chance to intertwine. In the future, it's best to wait for the gator to get tight and is completely inside the box. Since I got into this trade, I should have gotten out when it was clear it was dropping. But I still shouldn't have made this trade.

8 - Fbox break short; waited until break of upper box to exit trade at a loss. I think I should have exited at the close beyond the green gator line per the exit rules for the fruit strategy. Remember to exit at close of green gator line after trade has reached stage 3.

9 - Fbox break long; it looked to me the overall trend up starting with that wave 3 wasn't finished and might be getting out of a protracted wave 4. I waited for the gator to get inside the box before entering long at the break of the box level. I was supposed to add on at the next level but I had issues with ATM so it didn't happen. I did add on at the third level. I exited at the break of the bottom level which coincides with close of bar beyond the green gator line.

Thoughts and feelings: It is clear I am not used to trading the fruit strategy, especially at a very fast TF such as M1. I know with practice over the next few weeks will get me acclimated to the vagaries of trading this strategy with DOW at M1.

Following points I need to work on for the next few weeks:

1. Overcoming hesitation/doubt; trade what I see, not how I feel!
2. It is ok to trade the NEO
3. Look for solid evidence for a reversal trade after a strong trend (e.g. - "out of the ordinary" angulation and sudden price action)
4. Wait for gator to get tight and is completely inside box before trade Fbox break
5. Being aware of the overall pattern (is it trending or ranging?) and trade accordingly
6. Come up with pre-set lot sizes for possible candle/box sizes as using the ATM to set position size based on risk percentage is the wrong way going about it; use suggestion in fruit ebook

Immy, any other suggestions?

DS for the day: DS0
Total DS: 0/1 (0%)

[immy]

First of Grea work. A very detailed account of the session. Looks like you're serious about Growing your trading business. You want to be good at it. You want to become Peak Performing Trader. Well done.

I'll comment on your points

1. Overcoming hesitation/doubt; trade what I see, not how I feel!
Immy: don'#t think hesitation is your problem. Doubt will stay there forever, its the life of traders
2. It is ok to trade the NEO
Immy:Yes, NEO is different to DAX but you will surely get those days when it blasts off nicely from a tight box. other days, its a bit more spikey first 10 minutes
3. Look for solid evidence for a reversal trade after a strong trend (e.g. - "out of the ordinary" angulation and sudden price action)
Immy:yes remind yourself that Fruit trading is a Whole Package. Its not about reversals only or trend only. Overall its a TREND following Method iwth a Mechanism to Get into the NExt possible Trend at the peak of wave that might appear at the peak of the trend from the opposite side. When you know trend has established, try to go with the trend as long as possible. e.g. today, DAX broke long at LO then reversed, and down trend continued fro next 3 hrs.
4. Wait for gator to get tight and is completely inside box before trade Fbox break
Immy:FBOX break depends on which way do you see trend. e.g. some shorts you too above, were not warranted. Trade 5-10 was sideways right?
5. Being aware of the overall pattern (is it trending or ranging?) and trade accordingly
Immy:yes
6. Come up with pre-set lot sizes for possible candle/box sizes as using the ATM to set position size based on risk percentage is the wrong way going about it; use suggestion in fruit ebook
Immy: yes, I've always been the proponent of creating 2-3 tiers of position sizing based on what is normal for that market. e.g. 20 -25 is a good measure for DAX m1 at LO. 30, and some times 50 would be correct for DOW. And don't worry sometimes if the risk in pips exeeds your pre calculated lot size. its CHAOS trading. if it constantly need bigger SL we can adjust the tier calculation later. so on and so forth

[raklian]

Trade: B1-C2
Date: 1/15/2019
Pair / TF: DOW M1

1 - I wasn't ready at 16:30 so I missed this beautiful box break. Everyday during the week with the exception of Wednesday, I start trading at 17:00 due to other commitments such as dropping off kids at school, etc. On Wednesdays, I am able to start at 16:30. I need to add this to the trading plan. In the future, I will start at 16:30 everyday.

2 - It looked like a Setup with a strong Wave 3 up and in a sideways Wave 4. When the box tightened and all gator lines moved inside, I set a PO at the upper box level. It spiked up as I anticipated. There were several fruit signals in that Wave 3 move up but I did not stop to think about taking them. I told myself that we were in a trending market so I should trade accordingly which is what I did with that Setup trade.

3 - That was a GOOD fruit signal (I need to sear that formation into my brain). It had all the elements of a fruit signal we need to take: 1) strong move up from what's likely a wave 4, 2) because of that strong move up, great angle between price and gator formed, and 3) AO was peaking. I had a sense it completed a "1-5 cycle" move, so a move to the downside was a possibility. Of course, I put a PO under the signal candle which got triggered. I wanted to add a FAO but it was too close to the fruit entry. The box break at the bottom was too close as well. I ended up with just one position as DOW fell very quickly. I closed above the bottom bar after trailing candles since there were at least 5 consecutive bars in that move down. I don't think I would have traded it differently. Immy, your thoughts?

4 - I thought about entering at the break of the upper box level but chose against it. At the time, I felt the box was too big and gator lines weren't really woven tightly. I am not sure if that's the right thought process. Could I have taken it in hindsight? Maybe but no matter how I looked at it, the box was a tad bit big and gator wasn't really sleeping - in other words, the market did not pause to rest and wait for new information to come pouring in. Immy, what would you have done if you were in my position?

5 - At this point, I felt the market had an equal chance of going up and going down. Box was tight and gator intertwined nicely. There wasn't a sense of a sideways movement, so I thought the market still had energy to move. I set PO at upper and lower box levels, and the bottom one triggered. It dropped somewhat, creating an angulation between price and gator. I closed the position when I realized Wave 4 might be peaking and we were trending up.

6. I opened long above the fruit candle after I closed the previous trade. It's basically a SAR trade. My first one with fruit strategy, I believe. Moments later, it gave me a close shave when it brushed the SL at the bottom but turned and moved up in the direction I wanted it to go. I used the high of the three green bars immediately after that fruit signal, rather than the three green bars that occurred after that brush with the SL, to set the PO for the FAO. It got triggered, and then box break PO got triggered as well. I was fully loaded with a maximum of three positions, as according to my trading plan. I made a mistake with moving the SL, so I prematurely got out with the two most recent positions. I wanted to take out one position after that fruit top. I was left with one position, the fruit entry, and I was delighted to witness DOW soaring up to about 24100 where I exited after trailing candles. If it wasn't for that mistake with moving the SL, I would have had a high risk to reward with this trade. Now I understand the potential of the fruit strategy.


DS for the day: DS0
Total DS: 0/2 (0%)

[immy]

I was eagerly waiting for your update and now I have it.

I already knew you had a good day but was still curious to know how it went.

It feels like waiting for your favourite writer's article in the daily news paper. (the old days lol)

Anyway, so here we are.

I'm excited to know that you caught the break long and was able to reverse seeing the fruit at the peak. and yes, that was the Fruit reversal you ought to take.

I will make one point in both the good long and good short entries, you've failed to benefit from the Add on positions. KNOW it that your profitability depends on the add on levels. The Fruit entry will always be the lowest smallest lot size.

When going shor,t you hesitated and applied the logic of "its too close to fruit entry level" . its fine its the general logic people apply to it. But in trading terms its WRONG.

the market has presented you with a 3 red bar, entry signal. Don't try to "not lose" money when the signal is there. A strong signal. But ok, if you chose that path fine, but then BOX break was an absolute must. I understand you missed it due to speed and hesitation. But we LEARN. NEXT

Now on to the longs. To cure the "PME" tell yourself, before trading, visualise holding position for long runs. remind yourself you're in it to catch good decent runs. Remind yourself that "trying not to lose and saving your SL" does not lead to profitability. Profitability depends on MAKING PROFIT. And profit is made by letting your winners run. (at the cost of a rent that is smaller in proportion to the potential wins) at that point exiting Even one entry was not warranted. you have to ask why am I exiting? what is my reason to exit? are you banking profits? if yes, is it really twice or 3 times profit?

Overall I'd say you've done. Granted its only your 3rd day. So really good work. Lets carry on.

and yes, you have to sit there at the Open. if you miss the open you will miss assessing the mode of the market.

PS: compare the two charts, from last two days. one where we were getting hammered by taking fruit shorts and then the next day. both days you traded exactly the same day. One was loss day one was HUGELY profitable. Without guidance like this, traders often don't trade the next day. You did, and you were forced to say

Now I understand the potential of the fruit strategy

4 was not a trade. But if taken, it would be fine.

remember when you got out mistakenly , those beautiful addons, you should got back in when the box tightened later. ideally that would have been your 3rd add on had you stayed in it. But if mistake like this happen, you can get back in on another signal.

Lets trade again today - well i like it this way. focus and do your thing. I will comment later. ITs like any sport. I can't be or should not be coaching you when you're in the match. Coaching ends at the start of the match. and begins at the end of the match.

[raklian]

Trade: B1-C3
Date: 1/16/2019
Pair / TF: DOW M1


Pre-trading assessment of the market: It was trending up and I thought it was highly likely it would continue this way so I would look for long trades until something clearly tells me otherwise.

1 - I was ready by 16:30 after chatting with Immy for a bit in Slack. He was asking me about what my assessment is about what the market is doing around this point, hence the statement above. He also asked me how I define a trend. Obviously, I gave him the roundabout.

With the mind to look only for long trades at this point, I did not take the Fbox break short. Evidently, it turned around and sped upwards. Of course, I had a PO at the upper box level ready to latch on to the quick move up. I added a position for every box break until I was fully loaded with three positions as dictated by the trading plan. First time being fully loaded with the fruit strategy, yay. It went up and up, showing no signs or fruits to partially exit until it finally closed under the box level there at the end. There were instances bars did close under the green gator line, but the bottom box levels where very close so I decided to exit at box break.

2 - In hindsight, I feel I should have shorted at the break of the bottom Fbox. At the time, I didn't want to put a PO there because I was still thinking about taking only long trades since the price action right before that drop suggested likelihood it it was a flat Wave 4 before spiking up to a new Wave 5. Immy, what should I have done differently?

3 - Took the long fruit but quickly stopped out. I was still thinking the trend was still upwards, so I thought this point was a possible peak of Wave 4.

4 - SAR short trade triggered after that long fruit got stopped out. I don't always think about taking SAR trades but in this case I was thinking this might be a new trend to the downside since the move down was strong and had power behind it. I added on with the break of another box level. I exited my initial position first after the fruit at the very bottom. Later I realized, after looking at Immy's response to my question about which positions to exit first in a trade with add-ons, I should have exited the second position and then exit the initial position at the close beyond the green gator. From now on, I will be exiting the most recent position first and then the next recent one, and so on.

I did not take the fruit long there. I felt like we were in a no-man's land where I couldn't get my bearings with respect to where we are in the market structure. It wasn't clear to me so I did not take a chance. It also didn't help that the fruit wasn't a great one.

5 - Did not take a long at the box break. The box was too big for comfort. Also, something was nagging me in my head that it could go south because of the strong move down just before. A setup formation, if you will.

6 - I shorted after seeing two things: 1) a tight fbox with all gator lines inside, and 2) big engulfing candle which suggested to the downside. As for the add-on after the initial entry, I was confused. I thought there would be a level there but price went down rather quickly and there wasn't a chance for a box bottom to form. A mistake on my part. I need to wait until a new level is confirmed before placing a PO. Mistake #2 - I exited my initial position first, just like the previous trade.

7 - I took a long at the upper box level break. I was still thinking we might be in a larger trend to the upside, and the fact the move up leading to the box break broke the highest part of the setup pattern before this. All of that suggested taking a long position was reasonable. I added a second position at the next box break and I exited the trade after trailing the candles.

At this point, I was mentally worn out. I could have taken that fruit at the top but since I wasn't thinking at my 100% I played it safe and quit for the day. I know trading demands 100% from me and I wasn't.

Overall, profitable day.

Immy said I should have stopped after that successful full-loaded campaign at the session open. I'm not sure if I should have because I was conscious of the fact my trading plan tells me to stop trading when I reach 0.05% profit. I was nowhere near that after closing the first trade.

Is that the wrong way to think about this, Immy?

DS for the day: DS0
Total DS: 0/3 (0%)

[immy]

Trade: B1-C3
Date: 1/16/2019
Pair / TF: DOW M1
[Immy: If you continue to post like this. I will continue to reply like this

Pre-trading assessment of the market: It was trending up and I thought it was highly likely it would continue this way so I would look for long trades until something clearly tells me otherwise.

1 - I was ready by 16:30 after chatting with Immy for a bit in Slack. He was asking me about what my assessment is about what the market is doing around this point, hence the statement above. He also asked me how I define a trend. Obviously, I gave him the roundabout.
[Immy:Haha, yes, the trend is simply how you define it. For AIMS trend is UP when Gator is Open to upside and down when its open to downside.then we compare the Trend of CTF with TREND of 5XHTF. and that becomes are two forms of Trends. Some times we are going inline wiht trend on CTF and 5XHTF, some timees its against the CTF and in line wiht 5XHTF. some times its in line with CTF but against 5XHTF. Each situation has its own merits

With the mind to look only for long trades at this point,
[Immy:probability wise. not a FIXED mind. Just a slight bias based on trend. but you know trend on CTF and 5XHTF can be same or variant etc etc
I did not take the Fbox break short. Evidently, it turned around and sped upwards. Of course, I had a PO at the upper box level ready to latch on to the quick move up. I added a position for every box break until I was fully loaded with three positions as dictated by the trading plan. First time being fully loaded with the fruit strategy, yay. It went up and up, showing no signs or fruits to partially exit until it finally closed under the box level there at the end. There were instances bars did close under the green gator line, but the bottom box levels where very close so I decided to exit at box break.

[Immy:The was the open play. and you've played it well. Its ok if you did not trade the short, and it would have been ok had you done it.

2 - In hindsight, I feel I should have shorted at the break of the bottom Fbox. At the time, I didn't want to put a PO there because I was still thinking about taking only long trades since the price action right before that drop suggested likelihood it it was a flat Wave 4 before spiking up to a new Wave 5. Immy, what should I have done differently? [Immy:as above

3 - Took the long fruit but quickly stopped out. I was still thinking the trend was still upwards, so I thought this point was a possible peak of Wave 4.
[Immy:i noticed yesterday and made a note that I will point this out in your post. here we are. It appears that your spread might be too high. if not, then your buffer between Entry level and your price might be too much. How much is your spread? entry at 3 is okish. you had the mindset of longs and yo pursued an apple. in hindsight its obvious
Edit: Later, so much for attention to detail, your chart shows a spread of 3. its a bit expensive hope you can find a broker that gives you 1 spread.

4 - SAR short trade triggered after that long fruit got stopped out. I don't always think about taking SAR trades but in this case I was thinking this might be a new trend to the downside since the move down was strong and had power behind it. I added on with the break of another box level. I exited my initial position first after the fruit at the very bottom. Later I realized, after looking at Immy's response to my question about which positions to exit first in a trade with add-ons, I should have exited the second position and then exit the initial position at the close beyond the green gator. From now on, I will be exiting the most recent position first and then the next recent one, and so on.
[Immy:NO SARS against the trend. SAR in line with TREND only. SAR ,i.e. Stop and Reverse is the concept that states as follows: we are testing this fruit counter trend, but if we are proven wrong we will jump back into the trend. So now was the trend down at 3? These shorts are completely wrong. not needed. You can see that price has not yet crossed the distance of the 3 up at the time.

I did not take the fruit long there. I felt like we were in a no-man's land where I couldn't get my bearings with respect to where we are in the market structure. It wasn't clear to me so I did not take a chance. It also didn't help that the fruit wasn't a great one.
[Immy:you did not take the fruit long because you committed yourself into wrong trades. had you been waiting for "this wave 4 down" to finish you'd be happy to jump on the long. however, this was not even 4, since pullback down was too much. ANyway, lets not trade by wave too much. Wve is just a confidence measure.

5 - Did not take a long at the box break. The box was too big for comfort. Also, something was nagging me in my head that it could go south because of the strong move down just before. A setup formation, if you will.


6 - I shorted after seeing two things: 1) a tight fbox with all gator lines inside, and 2) big engulfing candle which suggested to the downside. As for the add-on after the initial entry, I was confused. I thought there would be a level there but price went down rather quickly and there wasn't a chance for a box bottom to form. A mistake on my part. I need to wait until a new level is confirmed before placing a PO. Mistake #2 - I exited my initial position first, just like the previous trade.
[Immy:this is the Curse of m1 trade. You get mesmerised by the m1 chart, you lose focus of what's going on. trading up and down without an edge. completely pointless trades at this point.

7 - I took a long at the upper box level break. I was still thinking we might be in a larger trend to the upside, and the fact the move up leading to the box break broke the highest part of the setup pattern before this. All of that suggested taking a long position was reasonable. I added a second position at the next box break and I exited the trade after trailing the candles.
[Immy:yes box too big, but you were in line with TREND. and Great exit. (should have reversed into shorts, as TZ1 was hit, 1-5 complete

At this point, I was mentally worn out. I could have taken that fruit at the top but since I wasn't thinking at my 100% I played it safe and quit for the day. I know trading demands 100% from me and I wasn't.
[Immy:yes, that's fine. you did trade alot. So nothing wrong with that. Lets focus on what we can learn from today. and work on it tomorrow.

Overall, profitable day.

Immy said I should have stopped after that successful full-loaded campaign at the session open. I'm not sure if I should have because I was conscious of the fact my trading plan tells me to stop trading when I reach 0.05% profit. I was nowhere near that after closing the first trade.

Is that the wrong way to think about this, Immy?
[Immy:like i said in chat. its ok to trade as much as possible during this stage. so that you develop your style. understand the chart/market better. as you go along you will learn and make a list of your your favourite setups. Like Mike Bellafiore says, make a playbook. Keep taking notes of the patterns that popup for you. the ones that you like. later we will analyse if the "ones you liked" are profitable for you. then we will eliminate the ones you don't like and not profitable and keep the ones you like and don't like but profitable ones.

note: 0.05% profit target should be a guideline. you can stop before it sometimes continue trading even if its reached. it should be an achievable goal rather that STOP TRADING point. but on the DOWNSIDE you should have a rigid STOP POINT. so if your goal for the day is 1%. then you should stop when you're down 0.5%.

DS for the day: DS0
Total DS: 0/3 (0%)

[immy]

check how similar today's DAX m1 chart was, during the london session, compared to your NEO session YD.



https://www.screencast.com/t/smwCHXwmtf

[raklian]

[Immy:[/b]i noticed yesterday and made a note that I will point this out in your post. here we are. It appears that your spread might be too high. if not, then your buffer between Entry level and your price might be too much. How much is your spread? entry at 3 is okish. you had the mindset of longs and yo pursued an apple. in hindsight its obvious
Edit: Later, so much for attention to detail, your chart shows a spread of 3. its a bit expensive hope you can find a broker that gives you 1 spread.

I'm using FX Choice.

Do you have any recommendations based on your experiences with US traders?

As a US resident, my options are extremely limited, all thanks to the dumb US regulations. US brokers of any kind do not allow CFD trading.

[immy]

Ameritrade thinkorswim
Best software.
And once u master trading m1
The world of trading stocks on m1 will open to you as well