Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

Similarly today 80 pips.

Its getting a little formulaic, just one trade a week
on the Daily. but they all seem to win. I would
like more trades, say on H4 but I don't have the
same confidence anymore.

Things changed for me last March with Lockdown,
whether my psychology or that of the markets
is always very hard to say

but lets just say I fell right out of the zone, only
quite recently getting back into my stride on the D1,
and usually look to return to green or thereabouts.
nothing too ambitious, but at least its consistent profit
so far at least.

As we see on this trade I reached green for just 80 pips
we had hit a trendline zone and looking left a significant
area of past resistance quite likely to now turn to support
so once again I'm not pushing my luck ' 80 pips in the hand
is worth two in the bush' sort of thing 

today.png

 
 
 
 

[kiravon]

the method of course isn't mine, but I put a lot of
store on the 'eyeball test

I'm looking for a 'Fruitlike' divergence from Gator
followed by convincing indications that price
is seeking to spring back to green or beyond.

In the last example I checked the reward was
worth having, around 160 pips to green I believe

but because it hung over the weekend green
moved up limiting likely profit to 80 pips.

The market cheated me out of 80 pips?
That kind of attitude doesn't help. The
market yielded an 80 pip profit.

I'm grateful for that. It mounts up!

I opened the account on 9th August with 5,000
and balance now stands at 6,207 around 22% gain

That would be ok if it proves to be sustainable

but I have found to my cost that sustainability
can never be presumed - things change!

[rcrglmd]

Hi Mickey,

Thank you for posting. That return is amazing. I hope it continues for you.

I'm a beginner and it's really interesting to see how other more experienced people trade. I didn't really understand how you were trading until you explained it in more detail. Thank-you very much for explaining it (back to green etc).

I'm still doing my T20 batches of S1, and so grateful to Immy for having this forum and for everyone that has posted so we can continue to learn.

I didn't even realise you could trade the way you do, it's great to see that there are other ways of doing things. I probably should start exploring more of the other methods Immy has, fruit, AA etc, but for now it's take a fair while for me to be consistent in identifying the S1's.

Anyway, thanks for posting.

Regards,

Siegrid.

[immy]

Similarly today 80 pips.

Its getting a little formulaic, just one trade a week
on the Daily. but they all seem to win. I would
like more trades, say on H4 but I don't have the
same confidence anymore.

Things changed for me last March with Lockdown,
whether my psychology or that of the markets
is always very hard to say

but lets just say I fell right out of the zone, only
quite recently getting back into my stride on the D1,
and usually look to return to green or thereabouts.
nothing too ambitious, but at least its consistent profit
so far at least.

As we see on this trade I reached green for just 80 pips
we had hit a trendline zone and looking left a significant
area of past resistance quite likely to now turn to support
so once again I'm not pushing my luck ' 80 pips in the hand
is worth two in the bush' sort of thing 

today.png
 
 
 
 

 

hey Mickey

That's an interesting setup you've discovered... would you care to elaborate on what you see here and how you pick your trades

Interesting to hear how your mindset changed during pandemic/lockdown... what happened? 

cheers 


 

[kiravon]

Hello Siegrid and Immy

I don't know what happened. I was doing quite well
trading live and then I suddenly lost a lot of money
which dented my confidence more than anything.

I really don't have a system per se.

What I am doing is probably very similar to Fruit
but extremely cautious.

I tried two trades on H4 last week and they both
reversed on me.

I can only seem to trade the D1 at the moment.

On D1 I look for divergence in the angle of Gator
and price, where price has made a big impulsive
move.

It will obviously spring back to Green but its knowing
when. Fruit aims to test the water and get in early
and I believe add on if things seem to be going well,
and get in on a new trend if possible.

Nothing wrong with that at all but obviously it isn't always
going to work nor does it ever claim to.

If you see a candlestick pattern that gives very clear indication
that price is now springing back to Gator I will always look left
for prior support or resistance, significant levels, and check the
nearest to price. if the reward seems worth having I will always
place a pending order- always! if the PO is hit it invariably
hits my TP - so far at least.

My favourite exit as Immy might remember from years ago
is trailing momentum as price nears TP - when there is momentum.
moving down to a lower time frame with stop under the last closed candle.

of course you get stopped out but sometimes price does keep going.

but normally these days I just set and forget. I don't want to get stressed
over trading anymore.

maybe thats why I'm successful at the moment - I'm getting out of
my own way!

I had a very nice win today 90 pips but added on with a very small lot size.
I think it will be stopped for a very few pips but it might keep moving up.
I wouldn't want to miss out on that, but once I've won the main trade I have no
intention of giving it all back

Done that too many times!

PS  the dark grey box that isn't AIMS is just highlighting prior resistance -
we are definitely at a very significant level and price is highly likely to
react to it.  it might keep moving up but its a gamble, literally, it would
be like playing Russian Roulette with maybe two empty chambers. and four
chambers primed to blow my brains out.  Hardly stress free trading!

3 nov.png

 
 
 
 

[kiravon]

Actually it looks like a CADJPY set up on H4 for 50 pips
as price seems to be reacting to Purple and definitely
moving down now.

I wish I could trade on H4, one trade a week is very
limiting and at modest position sizes would take a
long time to make any money

I'm back trading demo by the way - so 25% up since
August is largely meaningless.

[immy]

Hi Mickey

Trading is a very personal thing, isn't it?

We see some patterns that work for us. We trade them... find success and then something happens...

These days, I only stick to markets that are 1. moving clearly 2. have nothing to the left.
But at times I do find myself, trading between the range highs and lows... but over the longer term, I find that trading momentum in line with trend and out of Levels to the left works better...

I hope you find your "mojo" soon...

cheers

[kiravon]

Here is a live set up. If it was on the D1 it would almost certainly win.
Its on the H4 and I take no responsibility for the outcome

but we see a reaction at Purple and a clear indication that price
wants to spring back to Gator.  Will it go further?  that is impossible
to know.  But on D1 it does invariably return to Gator.

I think one of our ladies mentioned that she sees one or two Fruits
a week that are usually successful on H4.

Actually there are dozens of near set ups - but you don't want to
touch them!

Actually even one or two extra set ups would be very helpful,
taking me from one to three trades a week.

but they do need to be winning trades so I'm cautious.

but trading is weird, you're right Immy, its very subjective.

I could look at this setup next week and wonder how I could
possibly have thought it was a setup.

At the moment it is very obviously a near perfect set up -
or so it seems 

It will be interesting to see how it pans out
 
 

SET UP.png

 
 

[kiravon]

Price did return to Gator - so predictable!

but first price spiked and stopped me out!

Should I have allowed more breathing space?

Only if you are trading micro lots without a stop.
but it will take you a long time to make any money!

otherwise the risk/reward becomes non viable.

so now I have 3/3 Rents on H4 and no losers on D1
since August

Does it take a genius to figure out what I should be focusing on?

I recommend the book 'The One Thing' - the incredible power of
focus! - applies to everything. I'm learning to play the violin.
I focus on one string only and only play the same three notes,
but its starting to shape up.

If you find a niche in trading that really seems to work
for you, you have found something that 98% never will.

The ironic thing is it might not work for anyone else,
and they might tell you that. So important to 'work
in your own best interests' and not be distracted by
others - their approach might be more profitable for
them - it probably won't be for you - because this is
largely a game of psychology.

stopped.png

 
 
 

[kiravon]

Looking back to October 26th I would say this is
a perfect setup.

Even now I can see exactly why I took it.

we see that downward impulsive momentum
had run out of steam

then the reversal pattern with the exhaustion
tail on the Entry candle

It actually looks like the price really wants
to return back to Gator

but we also note this was no new trend for hundreds of
pips - it returned to Gator, it often won't do much more
than that.

If the market regularly gives me a small but significant profit
I am very grateful, it hasn't always been so agreeable in the
past!

To confuse the market with Santa Claus is not the best business plan


 

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