Tom's T20 Journal

[tombacon89]

I am not doing this to be a geek, I am doing this because I need to take it more seriously. I will be printing out copies of this, and signing them before I trade. Some bits will be cut paste into my journal entries, but I will not clog the journal up with the same thing over and over. 

It may seem like a chore to some, but, these are quick easy to answer questions that will take very very little time but enough time to help me focus.


Feel free to copy and use. 



D                   Discipline                               Do the below right, and this will be easy.
R                   Repetition                              Get the reps in. Trade, record, review. Repeat.
E                   Evaluate and Execute                 Know where your edge exists, take the trade, stat collect it
A                   Accept and Account                   Accept the outcome is random, document and journal it
M                  Methodical and Mechanical            Trade the valid setups, then leave it alone.


B                  Battle Boredom and Believe          Trade only the setup, believe in your setup, trust probability.                 
I                   Inspiration                              Do what the pro’s do and then you are a pro.
G                  Gratitude                              Do not celebrate wins, do not mourn losses. Be grateful for the opportunity.                               

PRE-SESSION CONTRACT:

Have you read your one page trading plan summary?  


Do you agree to trade as per the trading plan?


Do you have access to photos of good, quality trade pictures that clearly show the setup?


Do you have access to the core 'pattern' photos showing the formations of the breakout move and the pull backs?


I agree that if I do not see a valid signal, or there is a breach of the setup rules I will take a capital preservation position on that signal. (filter) 


I agree to update my spreadsheet for every time a trade is taken, and accurately record the required data?


I agree to post my trades to my journal for feedback. 

Are you mentally prepared for this session?


I understand the market does what it wants, when it wants and all I am looking for is one niche 'edge' that produces results over a long period of time if traded correctly; knowing that the outcome of one trade is irrelevant to the overall performance. This trading edge is a trend following, pull back strategy in the direction of the the 5x higher time frame.  


I will be trading the following Markets:                                  on the following time frame:


I confirm this is a pre-defined trading session as per my trading calendar? 

DATE:

SIGN:......................................................................  




PRE-MARKET CHECKS

A)Is there any red news to be aware of?
  
B) Have you identified and plotted the relevant HTF levels, and HTF direction?    



TRADE / SESSION SUMMARY: (can be done via screenshots)  




POST TRADE REFLECTIONS:

IF you DID NOT trade the plan, why not?  Can also be recorded in spreadsheet comments section. 

Questions arising from this session?    

Has the spreadsheet tracker been completed for all relevant trades taken?    





POSITIVE THOUGHTS:
 
 

[immy]

Hey Tom

Do WHATEVER you can to get it to work for you. Trading is ALL about "Your Process". 

There are core ideas that cannot be forgotten or ignored. 

E.g. If you have a system with Average 2R winners, you MUST be able to maintain 40-50% win rate. Otherwise, it will not work. 

The MATHS MUST be right. You can't beat the mathematical and statistical facts by changing your process, 4-hour Bonga wonga meditations or Lebron James speaking softly to you before you to go bed. 

The simple formula they teach year 7 kids works. How to find win rate for a 1:3 trading system? 

100/(1+3) = 25% win rate is your breakeven point. No matter what you do, this won't change. 

I love 1:5 and above, for this reason, because 1:5 = 16.6% win rate is your breakeven point .

The process, you're putting in place, when it starts to work, will help you realise these odds. 

I am going to say something radically anti what you're doing or trying to achieve in the end. 

DON'T Trade M1. 

If you are finding it hard, and you have to do so much HARDWork to make it work, may be that is the answer. 

Trust me. Simply switch to M5 and in line with H1, and you will find that you have been sleeping under a rock all this time. I know its daunting, you might feel like you're giving away opportunity. But M1 is an ILLUSION... Trust me.... There are only 1 in 100,000 traders who can be profitable on M1. 

 ps: let me give you an analogy. If you're on the "beat" (hope that's what they call it, you know the patrol or something, when you guys are on the street? )... do you ACTIVELY look for the "thug"? i don't think so. 

You will be highly active when there is a callout. When the sirens go off, that is the M1 chart. 

While you were patrolling the streets, maintaining peace, you were on the H1 or the D1 time frame. Just watching.... Do you really want to be in the "sirens on" situation all the time? 
 

[tombacon89]

Thanks Immy,

Yes your analogy is spot on... and even at 165mph (yes really.. audi a6s avants lol) ... I do not so much feel the hectic chaos.... why? Because I have a process I go through in my head whilst on the way. I know what I am likely to do in certain events, with fail safe backup contingencies if it does not go to plan. I feel the chaos of course, but experience and training allows me to be controlled, methodical and planned. I know I have all the traits in my day job, I know with time I can use this to my advantage. Maybe this is the pull to M1 for me. I also know, trading is like no other profession; and that is why lots of professionals suck at trading lol.

I do feel like I would be failing if I was to give it up. Also, I had that un-disciplined week or two taking M1 trend candles and going counter trend. I feel now I have worked/working hard to identify and rectify it. I feel changing right now would feel like I am not giving myself the opportunity to prove to myself that I an overcome that issue. I feel like maybe it is best for me to just get over this one hurdle and show some consistency again before another change. I hope somehow you can relate and understand this, when you put so much into something you have to see it through. Especially when you are stubborn like me lol.

Having said that; I have seriously considered going to HTF previously and also recently. For a number of reasons. When I say HTF, I mean h4/daily. The H1 and top of the hour stuff is very difficult around my lifestyle; it is not that simply for me to commit 10 minutes every hour of the day. Not for the want of been able to do that of course. 

I can certainly try changing to H1 banana setups at 8am, 9am or 10am set and forget. But I would also like to trade H1TC MPBS, so entry on the M5 banana pull backs which will require a bit of monitoring around the start of the new hour. But, should I go for 1:3 or 1:5? 

I know less chart time for me will be required as soon as I have kids; (hopefully not long) nature of the beast. So part of me is serious about switching to HTF for that reason. I know it is coming, so, maybe it is best to try adapt to it now.... Will the 10pm supper be enough though??? My concern is there will not be enough going on for me; and too small an account how is this achievable. 

I know I have to be open minded.... but I have no idea where to start on the daily charts.

I will continue to trade m1 until I come to a more logical are defined decision. But I do appreciate your input. I know it is not the first time you have mentioned it.





 

[immy]

Hi

this time I'm not talking about H1 or D1. I am talking about, trade the M5. 

Not the H1/M5. But trade the M5 at the London open. Exactly as you would trade the M1. Trust me, you will get the same amount of trades yet your performance will be BETTER. 

Your spread to average win ratio will improve and you will be able to hit 1:5 trades, with an average of 1:3's. on m1, forget about 1:5. M1 = You MUST be able to maintain a win rate above 40%. IF you can't M1 is not for you. (my win rate on m1 was 65%.) My win rate on H1 is 33%. But my average winners are 1:5 to 1:7.  

 Stats is the Name of the GAME
 

[tombacon89]

Ok, so, last night was a bit of a head scratcher for me. I had written my trading plan yesterday afternoon as that is one of the things I wanted to clarify with myself as part of my discipline process and to be clear. So last night was a little bit of a whirlwind say. 

this is what reads in my trading plan: (sorry immy, i have to stick with m1 to a degree. I will succeed.) 

TOM’S ONE PAGE M1 TRADING PLAN 

OVERVIEW: 
To trade the banana setup in the direction of the m5 time frame. If m5 is open to the downside, trade m1 short. If m5 is open to the up side, trade m1 long. I will never trade counter trend. Take the trades, record them, be accountable and maintain discipline by only trading the following situations: 

WHAT IS THE PATTERN? When the market has broken out with an impulse move made up of trend candles, then had a relatively smaller pull back.  (See images of ‘the pattern’ EG TTTPP) 

WHAT IS THE CONTEXT? The setup has to be within the context of the market cycle. Price must have broken a range/structure with trend candles, and then a smaller pull back before an entry is valid. I will not trade inside a trading range of the current time frame. 

WHAT ARE THE RULES? Banana rules. As per the flowchart. 

HOW WILL I ENTER?-

M1 bannana pullback. (wave 3 style. Break of range, into space, designed to get into w3. May not always be an M5 TC)-

M5 micro pull back. (trend candle of M5 in correct direction, or break of range at open.)Both these entries are very similar, but also different; rarely, there will be occasions where an M5 TC MPB entry is cuter, or an M1 banana PB is cuter.  I WILL NOT TRADE AN M1 TREND CANDLE.

- M1 continuation of M5. (M1 setup one develops, when the M5 PB candle is broken, take the next valid M1 pull back. Designed to get into w5) I can, trade inside a tall range of the 5xhtf; with caution. I can, trade inside H1 range counter trend, if I see that price has rejected or supported key H1 levels. Then wait for a valid entry on LTF. M5 must be in line with M1. I understand this is in a tall trading range that is H1 and there will be levels left. 

M5 MPB. I can, trade a single 5xhtf candle trend candle as a micro pull back. When M5 is a TC in the direction of the trend. M1 may produce a micro pull back. Known as ‘the wicks’ on M5. I will never trade the trend candles alone on M1. 

HOW WILL I EXIT? 

Risk is 1% per trade.1:3 tgt, SL to BE at 1r.
1:5 tgt, SL to BE at 1r for seeds. 
M5 - will target 5r but will move SL to 3R if 5R is not hit.

---------------------------

What I need to clarify now is I will trade 4 pairs on M5. I will take the cleaner entries so either the M5 TC mpb entry, or the cleaner M1 entry. As well, as M5 banana setups (for which I will set up a different account.) So m1 on one account, m5 on another. 

I will be setting up another screen to my laptop, again this is part of my plans of subtle changes to the environment I trade in to make things easier. So I do not have to flick between; it will be m5 to the left, m1 in front of me on laptop.


----------------------------

This was this mornings session... (still on one screen - laptop)

I NEED TO clarify what pairs I will trade now. Thinking DAX, GU, EJ and UJ. (suggestions welcome.) 

---------------------------

All pre-routine done quick, simple, effective.

--------------------------

spreadsheets updated accordingly.


-----------------------------



 

DAX LO PO MISSED.png

 

DAX seed left without me.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 1 EJ M1 ENTRY.png

 

M5 EJ SIGNAL.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 2 EU.png

 

EU M5.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 3 UJ.png

 

UJ M5.png

 
I did not take any more trades. 

 

 
 
 

[tombacon89]

I MUST get that second screen plugged in for tomorrow. I can't feel my eyes. M5 and M1, too much flicking. I need M5 ONLY screen, and M1 only laptop. 

M1 will be M1 only. Indices.
M5 will be M5 only. FX and Indices 

One trade. I see as DS1, I do not have a rule of how big a candle should be.... perhaps I should... on discussion with emma she takes 15pip candle size. certainly makes sense when going for 3 and 5r etc.... 22 pip - 5r - 100pip move. asking too much. 

No dramas. 

BATCH 1 TRADE 4.png

 

[tombacon89]

Hello journal. It's been a while...

Last year was a game of two halfs for me... 1:2r targets on m1 dax only for the first 6 months ish, I smashed it..... imho. But it was TOO INTENSE. 

I continued to trade throughout the second half of last year going for 1:3 and eventually 1:5. I was mostly alone in m1 world, but remained in touch with some aimsters. It got addictive to be honest... I took a small challenge, I was determined and focused to succeed. I was in profit but I did not manage to succeed by the end of the timeframe. I did not re-take a challenge. 

I remained on a small live account. But, I am running a loss on this of around 17r from July onwards. I mixed timeframes, I lost the edge. I'd take a win on htf but give 2/3r straight back on m1/m5. I could not continue with the quick losses when the wins took sooooo long to come across and playout in HTF world. When you hit 19 rents before a 5r win it is pretty tough... (I still have the faith that I am just one good month away from turning it around. )

Combining this with moving house, and now expecting a baby in march. I think my mind was too full. I could not commit to my trading, I was playing at it for the last quarter of 2022. I felt like a gambler on m1... which, is the opposite of what I want to feel like when trading.

I have officially given up LTF. I will not and do not have the time to spend on LTF anymore, and that's just the way it is now going forward. I have accepted this, it took a few months. But I feel like I have let go of it now. I'm off the LTF wheel :)

I will continue only trading HTF, in that I will only look at H4 and D charts. If H4 becomes too much, as there are more than enough setups, then I will be open to only trading the daily chart. 

1:5R, SL to BE at 2r, trail stop by 2R. 6 FX Pairs and 6 Indis. I will take the best of the similar setups, or half risk or two similar/confluent setups. Max exposure 1r at any given time. I Will take a next trade if running trade gets to BE. 

I am hopeful that less is more for me this year.... I devoted a lot of time into LTF over the past year, and I am hoping that I can use that experience into HTF once I learn the pace... 
 

[tombacon89]

BATCH 1 TRADE 1 DAILY VIEW.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 1 H4 VIEW .png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 1 RESULT 2R.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 2 RENT.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 3 ENTRY.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 4 RENT.png

 

[tombacon89]

filtered dax h4 last night, it's working.

did not like the levels left from the daily range. However, on h4 there was a clear impulse move. The pb however was not clean. I did not take it. NEXT.

DAX missed h4 evening candle DAILY view.png

 

DAX MISSED H4 evening candle.png

 
 

[tombacon89]

Batch 1 Trade 5
GJ H4 long, counter trend of 5xhigher time frame. (daily.)
Daily was a strong TC.

RENT

BATCH 1 TRADE 5 RENT GJ DAILY TC.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 5 RENT GJ H4.png