Tom's T20 Journal

[tombacon89]

BATCH 1 TRADE 15 UK100 H4 BE.png

 Another cute setup. Another daily trend candle, h4 pullback. The setup was there, on a sweet level to springboard from. Nothing wrong here imho.

[tombacon89]

BATCH 1 TRADE 16 GJ 1R.png

 GJ, nice entry. nice pattern. another daily trend candle and h4 entry. trailed for 1r. 
 

[tombacon89]

BATCH 1 TRADE 17 GU RENT H4.png

 cutie, daily trend candle and h4 pb. towards the bottom of the daily range. unlucky again, news spikes then drop how i wanted without me. meh. next.

[tombacon89]

BATCH 1 TRADE 18 US30 H4 RENT.png

 

BATCH 1 TRADE 19 NAS H4 RENT.png

 Two more rents to add to the shopping basket. FOMC day. whipped me out of both. 

[tombacon89]

BATCH 1 TRADE 20 EU H4 BE.png

 I got scared and move SL to BE as price failed to push through 2r TP. Had I just let it play out, on this occasion it would have been a winning trade.

[tombacon89]

Most common and best outcome analysis of batch 1. DAILY AND H4 ONLY! Targeting 1:5, SL to BE at 2r. Then trailing stop. 3r move to 1r, 4r move to 2r.

I started this analysis after trade 17 and realised 1:5 may not be working for me. Trades 18,19 and 20 I went for 1:2r. 

Trade 1, 4tp best - took 2
Trade 2, -1
Trade 3, -1
Trade 4, -1
Trade 5, -1
Trade 6, -1
Trade 7, -1
Trade 8, 2r best took BE
Trade 9, 2r best but took BE
Trade 10, 5r best took 5r
Trade 11, 2r best but took BE
Trade 12, 2r best but took BE
Trade 13, 2r best but took BE
Trade 14, -1Trade 15, 2r best but took BE
Trade 16, 3r best but took +1r
Trade 17, -1
Trade 18, -1
Trade 19, -1
Trade 20, BE (Moved SL manually. should have let it hit 2r. my mistake) 

Actual Results
-10r rents
7 BEs
3 wins. 8r profit 2r, 5r and 1r = -2R targeting 1:5, SL to BE at 2r. Then trailing stop. 3r move to 1r, 4r move to 2r.  

At trade 17 I chose to only target 2r. (should have been 4wins, 10r profit, 2r, 5r, 1r and 2r. trade 20 error.) 

So the best outcomes then assuming I did not play with trade 20 SL................... 

1r TP = 10 wins 10r ..  -9 rents, 0 BE = +1R
2r TP = 10 wins 20r.. -9 rents, 0 BE  = +11R (taking 2r profit instead of moving SL)
3r TP = 3 wins 9r, -10 rents, 7 BE (increases BE rate but doesn’t move enough to lock more in.) = -1R
4r TP = 2 wins 8r + 1r trailing win is 9r, -8 rents, 7 BE. = +1r
5r TP = 1 win 5r and 2 trail stop wins at + 2r + 1r. so 8R wins, -10 rents, 7 BE. = -2R

The best outcome on this batch: 2r TP = 10 wins 20r.. -9 rents, 0 BE  = +11R (taking 2r profit instead of moving SL)
 
For my next batch on HTF I will be going for 1:2 profit targets. I appreciate this is a small pool of data. But, 11r compared to -2r has to tell me something and I am not going to ignore it on HTF. I am also now slightly more funded so I can now split my risk across a number of setups. I do not have to cherry pick what I THINK is the better setup. I will just simply take the setups now. I will not risk more than 1-2% of my account at anyone time.

I have missed plenty of trades for various reasons throughout the time it took me to complete this batch. (2 months) but that's fine. I can only trade when I am available to place a trade, and if I miss one it is no dramas. One thing I find easy on HTF is, I know, that when I see a nice trend candle on daily chart close, then usually the overnight period is flat, and we see tiny pullbacks. So, ahead of time I know if it is worth getting up to check the 6am candle and place a trade. This is the second day play on H1. 

I am also looking at the h1/m15 method for the days of the week I am free to look, which is not that many but hopefully enough days in the month to profit... as I see lots of success in discord with this. My intention is to stick to HTF as my primary method. But I see the potential on the h1/m15 strategy. So, I am keeping a separate batch journal with those trades and I will do the same comparison as above to see where we target for those intraday trades as I am aware the TP factors might be different.