Momentum Trades

[kiravon]

So following from the above, just after midnight Sunday evening

We saw that everything looked bearish on EU - there had even
been a gap down over weekend.

As you can see we had a Set up with several of the above
signals appearing

There was a nearby TZ1 but I didn't feel it would hold price back

It was intuitive but it was the pattern of the EMA 6 cutting up
through EMA 50 and the angle that it cut back through EMA 6

So often this tells you something is going down

However it went a bit sideways

I still felt something might explode but I moved PO down to under AIMS.

AIMS was broken and we were off!

16b.jpg

[kiravon]

So now we come to the Close. I was trailing momentum
with the Stop above the last bar. There was still a nice channel
on the 6/50 EMA and it looked like the momentum would continue

But Blue had crossed Red in QQE ADV which means Exit immediately!

Had I waited one more second my Stop would have been hit and I would have
lost five pips for nothing which would have reduced my gain of 1.5% on the
trade to 1.2%

closed 16.jpg

PS Immy thanked for something six months ago, not for the above
trade

[kiravon]

Today JPYs up on six currency pairs I monitor.
That gives some confidence.

The USDJPY showed a very nice trend.

Its following the shifted 6EMA quite nicely
( which is loosely Gator Green )

and I would like to simply trail 6EMA

Sometimes these JPY trends can really run.

At the very least I will do the Grant and hope
to move up to BE as soon as possible then
trail thereafter.

Also my Russian indicator has a feature on the
chart which displays how much gain% you've made.

Also the profit or loss amount switches from red to
green etc

Reminds me a bit of binary options.

adds a bit of excitement to the trade

16c.jpg

[kiravon]

The trade was looking a bit dodgy as QQE ADV Blue looked
to be crossing down over the 50 level. That would not have
been good.

But I felt there was more chance price would rebound up off
Prior AIMS.

16d.jpg

I am delaying my revised Trading Plan because goals of 5% per day
might be a bit embarrassing if not sustainable.

Its far too early for euphoria. I think I need to analyse my current T20,
try to think of % daily/weekly gains that are both exciting but realistic.

If in the new year they seem significantly off I can always revise them
again.

Whilst Ray is completely on the money when he highlights how much
1% per day can grow exponentially, nevertheless I wouldn't want that to
become a self fulfilling prophecy if more is achievable.

Staying level headed is essential at this juncture. Just rinse and repeat

But this trade is getting difficult to call.

The JPYs are very bullish and I can see 120 pips quite attainable but not
for a 8 pip SL on the M5.

But 25/8 pips on M5 is NOT to be sneezed at! That's 1:3RR

120 pips would be nice but its possible I would need a 65 pip SL which is
only a 1:2 RR

You don't get something for nothing.

Whilst journalizing price fell sharply and QQE ADV Blue crossed sharply down
over the red signal line and is now challenging the 50 line. Price still seems to
be respecting 6 EMA but I have moved Stop up to BE because I am not completely
sure what is happening.

So its a free trade

Just had a AIMS Short Alert AND Cross of 50 line on QQE ADV AND break of 6 EMA!

Its hard to stay Bullish but the 6 EMA and 50 EMA are still in a nice trending channel.

This could be a break even trade. Grant has a lot of them so I will be in very good
company.

But I am no longer enjoying this trade

If I don't win I will be a bit of a bad loser today

My psychology is not great due other factors and its good to be aware of it.

I don't really feel up to trading anymore after this trade

If I feel affected by a minor rent or even the prospects of one it is
better to walk away until I am more buoyant


I still think there's more, but this is what the chart looks like now-

16e.jpg

Price moving up again! If it breaks AIMS and QQE ADV 50 line I will add on!

I have set my PO add on

16f.jpg

PS Immy thanked for something six months ago, not for the above
trade

[kiravon]

Out for -1% but now PO SAR as all the signals are in place
for a serious reversal
------------------------------
Not so serious! It crossed back over the EMA 50 so I closed manually for -0.5% Loss

We could go on all day like this

I'm allowed three consecutive losers per day but I'm stopping at two.

Best wait for a fresh start

But actually it has been a BE day, +1.5% after midnight and -1% and -0.5%
after that. No big deal.

16h.jpg

Have been out for a few hours. Things are not so bad. I got the entry right,
I was 1.25% up at one point

QQE ADV blue crossed down over red signal line and 50 line. I was sure
it was just a blip. This is a phenomenal indicator introduced to me by Ray.
It is not smart to ignore it. I will be much more cautious with it now,

It is worth taking very careful note of.

The comment from Immy below was six moths ago explaining that Fractals are
more in the now unlike Past S or R levels.

[immy]

Hi

there is one difference between S/R and AIMS box or fractal levels. A fractal shows this is where behaviour changed. s/r says "because something happened herein the past it might happen again". I don't believe in this philosophy as I believe every moment in the market is unique and anything can happen. S/R is the popular way and for that reason, it means it must not be working otherwise most of us would be making money!

enjoy your trading buddy, just my 2 cents worth i wanted to add to your brilliant journal! cheers

[kiravon]

p.15

[kiravon]

I didn't delete this post from last May as is quite
sensible

-------------------------------------------------------------------

First there were Rents, Then T20 Strategy, now ...

The NP10 Neutralizing Protocol!

This will revolutionize the Trading World!

How does it work and what makes it so successful?

Well the psychology behind it is that although your goal is to be in
profit not on every trade but on 8 out of every 10 T20s - which over time
would provide you with an unlimited income.....

but even with a genuinely positive expectation there can be losers to
dampen your spirits and if this all important psychological issue
isn't completely neutralized........

it might serious impact negatively on your longer term Positive
T20 based goals. This Neutralizing Protocol
is secondary to the T20 Strategy

Just like an airplane could conceivably take off without any wheels...
but there would be a lot of friction that would seriously impede
any progress and a very high chance you might go up in flames!

So likewise the Neutralizing Protocol are the 'wheels' on our
trading airplane

They make it effortless for the plane to reach a speed of 100mph
approx at which point the air pressure automatically gets the
whole thing off the ground

If we can't build up to that speed we will almost certainly
go up in flames

The analogy being is that if we cannot stick to the T20
plan due to undue stress on our undercarriage ( our mindset )
our account may likely also get burned!

So we return to the one rule that rules supreme over ALL
other rules

Trading must be free of all stress!

Surely the number one rule is that we stick to our system rules?

No

The number one rule is that we remain stress free at all times

If we are stress free we will not succumb to fear and panic that makes
us want to keep trying something else in a futile attempt to bail ourselves
out of trouble ( it isn't 'trouble' ! - its just a few rents before we turn the
corner back into profit again )

So whilst we must remain Positive on the longer term T20 front of twenty
trades, we are also more philosophical on the shorter term NP10 front

Put another way...

NP10 is short term business plan

Many new businesses anticipate a loss over the first year or two but
in the positive expectation of longer term profits.

If someone setting up a new business thinks it will immediately
go into profit and stay in profit he will soon become very
disheartened, disillusioned - he will start making rash and
ill advised decisions that precipitate bankruptcy proceedings

and this is PRECISELY what we see 98% of the time with
traders who simply cannot cope with the initial drag -
( yes like an airplane without wheels! ) - they don't
see the financial lift off they hope for so they start
playing around with all the flashy indicators etc

and this equates well with a multiple flashing dials
instrument panel cockpit scenario

In the cockpit you don't need more indicators to
get off the ground!

You just need wheels to take all the stress of the
undercarriage

That's all you need!

So for me to be stress free in my trading

I must ensure two things:-

1) the amount I lose on each trade really isn't enough to matter

2) I have a business plan that allows for and even anticipates a
moderate but initial loss

I even type this out in my journal so that I see it in print often
and thus become conditioned to expect some initial losing rent
trades. but I now look forward to getting them out of the way
knowing that some decent winners will show up before too
long, and the net result being a gradual but steady equity curve

I anticipate my next ten trades might likely be 4:1 rents and I am mentally
and emotionally prepared for this to happen

So if it does happen I am not thrown into panic, it was more or less expected after all

so I am far better able to just stick to the plan knowing that speed will pick up. maybe
not straightaway, but soon - and then we will have take off!

If a plane keeps on accelerating, eventually it will get to the point when lt will automatically
become airborn!

- although it might run out of runway!

but as traders we have no runway limitations

As long as we stay on this unlimited runway, and stick to the plan we will
take off sooner or later

all planes and gliders have very little to do surprisingly

it is simply the consistent forward movement and the air pressure
under the wings that automatically causes the plane to rise above the ground

if the plane or glider keeps stopping and starting on the runway it is guaranteed to
remain on terra firma!

So I have designed for myself the ultimate trading plan!

Is there any downside?

Yes, it is somewhat boring

Nothing is upsetting, nothing is exciting

Its just like any retail business that will have slack periods

for many, nothing happens all week but Saturday is the big
winning day for trade

but they still have to pay rent Monday to Friday

Others will have a very quiet year and the business only
really takes off and goes into profit over the Christmas
trading period

but they still come out ahead and they anticipate
that most of the year may not be that profitable
but they are not fazed by this

so they take a realistic approach

The directors are likely battle hardened, seasoned merchants
who know how to play the game

and that is exactly how trading must be viewed

it is a business with a business plan

so my next couple of weeks might look like this:-

NP10
Sequence 1
C1 DS 1 -50 actual P/L =
C2 DS1 -50 actual P/L =
C3 DS1 -50 actual P/L =
C4 DS1 -50 actual P/L =
C5 DS1 +175 actual P/L =
C6 DS1 -50 actual P/L =
C7 DS1 -50 actual P/L =
C8 DS1 -50 actual P/L =
C9 DS1 -50 actual P/L =
C10 DS1 +175 actual P/L =

DS 10/10 -50

the above forms part of T20

Sequence 1

Total Anticipated Result for T20 Sequence 1:-

DS 20/20 +150 pips Actual Total Profit =

With this complete trading plan there are no big surprises!

This T20 may turn out not be profitable but it shouldn't be too far off what I anticipate

and more importantly I will complete the entire T20 sequence in a thoroughly
businesslike and professional manner

I am a financial trading professional

I am not a hissy fit gambler ruled by emotion and at the mercy of
roller coaster mood swings. I am not affected emotionally by
whatever the market does or fails to do

[Tomi]

I like the analogy. Even when you get the wheels and start lifting up it's still bumpy ride until you get to the normal traveling altitude. After that the ride is steady and you enjoy. You enjoy the ride, sometimes there are air bumps (air pocket? what the heck is that stuff that gets an airplane to lower the altitude 100 meters per second), things get nasty but all this is just small moments of drawdown and you continue traveling with enjoyment shortly. May the journey be fruitful.

[kiravon]

Likewise this was written here last May and is worth
keeping

and it would be wrong to have guys commenting on posts that
are no longer here!

------------------------------------------------------------------
Praying and Screaming!

Thanks for reminding me about Turbulence Tomi - how could I ever
forget about that!

WE do get bumps in out trading and the lesson of this cut out
is simply don't overreact or even react at all -

turbulence.JPG

Some years ago I was on a flight to Geneva and we hit turbulence.
I hadn't flown for many years and had quite a fear of flying

I was so terrified by all the bumps but everyone else was just reading
or playing games on their laptops, completely unperturbed by the
'certain death' that awaited us all!

I knew that at any moment the wings would shear off and we would
spiral out of the sky

In reality planes are never bought down by turbulence

yes turbulence does cause deaths!

passengers have been known to die from heart attack

caused not by the reality of the situation but by their imaginary fear

I have flown dozens of times since then and I don't even notice turbulence now

but I do remember how I overcame my fear of turbulence - I just imagined I was in
a hovercraft - in the old days they could be a bit bumpy - it is much the same thing

Yes even after take off we can have bumpy spells in our trading but its nothing to
be concerned about - just enjoy the ride!

Rather than imaginary doom and destruction just focus on the joyful eventuality
of reaching out destination