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immy wrote:You forgot about NFP news... never mind it could have gone in your favour too.
That's what I thought, too...afterwards .
I wonder, if I should generelly pay attention to big news events?
As I'm trading on H1, my previous point of view is "no".
NFP is the biggest pre planned news event in the month, I would be inclined to say FOMC is second (although the impact is generally after UK/Europe closes). In my experience it is enough to change the direction on quite high time frames, certainly H1, and probably H4 and D1. Some would say it should be a "trader's holiday" but there's probably enough opportunity to make a gain if carefully managed. However I have learned not to take much notice of brokers' predictions about the outcome. At the end of the day all opinion is no better than fortune telling, the numbers can be a surprise and the reaction to the numbers can also be opposite to the predictions!
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
Entry: Box breakout + Box Add-On
Risk: 43.2 P + 45.2 P
Exit: Initial SL
Result: -44 P - 46.5 P = -90.5 P, -1.02 R - 1.03 R = -2.05 R
DS: 0
About the campaign
Thought was getting into a possible wave 5 down. Tight box, Alligator sleeping.
The same situation on H4: price could have ended a wave 4 there, too, and gone into a wave 5 down.
Box breakouts looked good at first, but price never really entered its stage 3.
I "forgot" to set the second entries' SL the same as the firsts' (DS = 0), which resulted in a poorly managed campaign.
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Entry: Fruit
Risk: 15.5 P
Exit: Initial SL
Result: -15.7 P, -1.01 R
DS: 1
About the campaign
As I thought I could have spotted the end of a larger wave 3 down here, I saw some potential in the, possibly, following wave 4 up.
Small candle, obvious divergence, but didn't work out this time.
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Entry: Fruit
Risk: 24 P
Exit: Initial SL
Result: -24.2 P, -1 R
DS: 1
About the campaign
Market decided to go a little more up, before entering into wave 4.
On H4, I saw afterwards that price was in a possible wave 3 up here. So, perhaps not the best spot to go short, but pattern on H1 was okay and entry according to my Trading Plan.
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Entry: Box breakout
Risk: 62.8 P
Exit: Initial SL
Result: -62.9 P, -1 R
DS: 1
About the campaign
Nothing wrong with the setup itself: Alligator inside Box, AO close to zero line.
But: the trades' location was rather unlucky, to say at least.
An extended wave 3 up was probably finished, wave 4 down about to start and a long way to go before Fibonnacis' 38.2 % or even 50 % retracement.
Moreover, Box size was rather big and price on H4 going into wave 4 down, too.
Definitely not the best place to target a wave 5.
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