Kyle's Journal Mk2

[immy]

While saying you're not worried about rents you are showing that you are! it is the rents that get you the big winners if you don't rent you won't have the fun. Rent the car enjoy the drive, rent a house enjoy the shelter. no rent no joy!

M5 has got nothing to do with it. M5 will only bring confusion. because when you do look at m5, what are you looking for? What you missed looking for was not the information that you could have gained from looking the m5 chart. It was the fact that the chart was fully sideways, with very low volatility and this information was available to you on m1.

In fact if you do look at m5 there your trade direction was pretty much in line with the trend direction on m5. and if you if you took the next classic breakout on m1, you'd have joined wave 5 on m5 up.

Understanding volatility is the key. specially for m1. and I think you have plenty of experience in this field. you'd been doing volume analysis for some time! all the best. just take the setups within your chosen time period of trading and don't read any more into things than you have to.

Your Goal is: 20/20 DS

[Kyle]

OK, here is the trade I made earlier. Mentioned in the skype room that I possibly should only trade when I can commit to the full session as I wasn't here right on LO today and as such, did not trade the initial LO breakout.

This trade though, was a valid one in my mind and traded properly, meaning I got the Add ins as well. unfortunately, it decided to reverse and hit the SL, but was well loaded, ready for a drop if the market wanted it. The better trader would have reversed the trade at that point, but I did not. However, the trade entered was, I believe, a correct trade and as such scored myself a DS of 1 with that trade, opening up the balance for the DS. Expectation now is to complete the 20 trades with a DS of 18.

Attached is the chart for LO today

2015-04-08_Trade_1-3.png

[Kyle]

OK, NEO is behind me now. Taken three trades and missed one nice one that peter took live in the Skype Room. Remembering the first trade in LO was a rent for me, but still pushing ahead trading the setup as I see it and learning as I need to as we go.

First trade (called live in the room) had both Peter and myself in it. It was a Classic Breakout trade. Initially, there seemed to be bugger all volatility/momentum and I didn't have a PO in, but the candle prior to my entry pushed the entire length of the AIMS level without much resistance. Put the PO in and it triggered pretty much straight away and took off nicely. Signalled a Fruit Long soon after @+14 pips and then turned back. I closed the trade out when the candle closed above the green line as per my trade plan on Breakout trades. I may have to look at that management as I think it would have been much better to include opposite fruits when it extends away from the Gator like it did. In the end, it was just 0.3 pips in profit and most of the profit was eaten away from a 1:1 profit if I closed on the fruit candle.
Chart attached

2015-04-08_Trade_1-4.png

Here is where great experience comes in. peter had actually closed his trade at the fruit candle and then put in an S&R long on that fruit candle. That would have had a 10 pip stop for a 7 Pip return. Not a great deal in the scheme of things, but when you really look at it, I ended up sligtly better than break even, while Peter gained a nice 1:1 on the short, immediately followed up by a 0.7:1 trade afterwards. End result being I took 0.01% to my 0.5% risk, and Peter would have taken 0.85% to his 0.5% risk - a big difference when looking at the same chart, using the same techniques. Perfect evidence of Immy's statements that the method is not the biggest thing, the management of the trade is very big.
For this trade, even though I spotted a possible missed opportunity or improvement, I still gave the trade a DS of 1 (2/4)as it was traded to the plan, however, from here, the fruit is also to be considered in the trade management.

Not long after, another Breakout opportunity occured. I took this short and it immediately turned on me and did close above the green just, but instead of closing straight away, I consciously decided to let it breathe a bit since it was just opened. The patience rewarded me and it soon broke down into a new w3. Once it broke out of the next AIMS box, I trailed the candles due to the separation of the candle from the Gator and it stopped out just above the next fruit long for a nice 2:1 trade. I declined the Add-On trade at the break of the next AIMS as it had pulled quite a way away from the Gator. Chart attached

2015-04-08_Trade_1-5.png

Again, the fruit was an ideal S&R and after a short amount of drawdown, would have again yielded a nice 2:1 trade, along with a 0.5:1 Add-On. Might be "Should have's",but if identified, at least I can learn and look actively for them as well. Wont be long and I will be taking them as well. Although the S&R was missed, the actual trade was handled well, and as such, I gave it a DS of 1 (3/5).

Again, soon after, a Fruit entry availed itself to us, and I quickly took the PO for that. I also took the Add-on shortly after and then exited at the opposite fruit, feeling momentum was drying up and that break from Gator tied in with the fruit was an opportune time to exit the trade. Hindsight also backed that decision in the end. Chart Attached

2015-04-08_Trade_1-6.png

Pretty satisfied in hindsight with this one as well, so DS of 1 was again added (4/6)

That brought the day's trading of both sessions to a close with just 5 pips and 0.25% profit, but some great lessons, and a nice close to the day when the initial trade in LO ended up loaded up with initial entry and two add-ons all hitting SL. It shows, just trade the setups with appropriate risk and trade management and you will be fine. Imagine the day if I was 100% on the ball as a competent trader would be and the additional fruit entries were taken. You would be looking at a 2% day pretty easily instead of the 0.25%. very powerfulwhen you have got everything sorted correctly :-B

[Kyle]

A mixed day today, but that is fine. The mistakes I have made were identified objectively (and with the assistance of the AIMS Skype room)

Starting with LO. I missed the initial sell fruit for some reason, cannot think why, but then took the next AIMS break short. The gator then fell asleep, and I decided to "Bracket" the AIMS level with a PO long as well. The market did what it wanted and went up, so my long was triggered and short shut down on the trailing AIMS. Then, on the long position, it ran up nicely and I took another Add-on on the break of the next AIMS level, then closed them out manually when it closed below the green gator line.I might have taken the fruit at the top of the chart, but if I took that, in all seriousness, I would have likely taken the fruit just prior to the last add-on, probably leaving me in the same net position. The trade gave -5.2, 18.2, -6 pips for a net total of 7 Pips.
i was pleased with this one as it was the first time I had set up a S&R type trade and taken it the opposite direction to that first traded. DS for this campaign was a 1, added to previous is 6/8 for this campaign of 20. The reason for the -6 Pips was a very fast start to the next candle and in closing both trades, one happened to take a little longer, bleeding some pips. All in trading.

2015-04-13_Trade_1-8.png

NEO session started quietly, and as the chart slowly ebbed lower, I decided to take a short on AIMS breakout. This was a mistake in the fact that volatility had not yet hit. the market then went up and hit my S/L pretty quickly. It then presented a short Fruit signal, which I took, and after a small move in my direction, it also reversed. Bugger. two trades, -11 and -7.5 Pips.

2015-04-13_Trade_1-9_and_1-10.png

In hindsight, not too happy about taking these two as well as the fact I have been stung with trading lower volatility before as well. I hope to not make the mistake a third time. DS on these was both 0, taking the DS to 6/10. Much improvement needed.

Now, with that out of the way, I did go back and have a look at the NEO charts, and two great campaigns did emerge for the keen eyed trader. Even taking in the first loss at a full 0.5%, the first campaign could have had two add-ons, all up gaining -11, 16.5, 9 and 1 pips. A total for that first campaign of 15.5 Pips and 1.5% on four simple 0.5% risk trades

It also presented another fine opportunity at the top of the range with a fruit short, which would have had the initial trade plus another two add-ons, gaining 24.4, 19 and -6.5 Pips, totalling 36.5 Pips or 1.78% on the 0.5% risk trades.

That would represent 3.28% on 0.5% risk with two campaigns within a very short amount of time. That chart is as follows;

2015-04-13_Trade_1-9_and_1-10_ideal_scenario.png

Now, a person could be a bit sad on the days results, but I am encouraged. yes, mistakes were made, but they have been highlighted and hopefully not repeated. I have made a loss on the day, but sound money management has minimised any investments back to the DAX. i am really encouraged by the fact we saw opportunities in there and I just need to train the eye and mind a bit more to catch those. A fairly drab NEO session couple have easily earned over 3%. That is real potential and I will tap in to it.

Onwards and upwards for tomorrow. It is going to be a great day \m/

[Kyle]

Time for a couple of days update. Server was down yesterday, so I didn't post my trades.
So, first for yesterdays efforts.
No trades in LO as I was late home from work. Saying that, the charts weren't overly inspiring either, but took two trades in NEO.
I missed the first opportunity with a fruit at the top of the range, however, took the breakout of the AIMS trade and it went in my direction nicely. We got another AIMS level, and since I had just the one position in, I took an add-on at the break of the AIMS level. The AIMS was quite high, so I placed a singular lot entry on the Add-on. Started nicely, but got a fruit long and turned from there. I had moved my SL to above the recently formed AIMS high and it stopped at that point.

2015-04-15_Trade_1-11.png

Net position was a slight rent (-0.06%) but I believe the trade to be correct with the exception of not getting in that initial Fruit Entry. Maybe in hindsight, I should have closed on the fruit long and taken a long entry, but that at the moment is discretionary and the actual stop was taken correctly. DS +1 for 7/11

Soon after, I thought I had a good opportunity and took a short fruit. This was a pullback from a fairly long down trend. I was thinking A.A. with this, however, the chart though otherwise and stopped me out pretty quickly.

2015-04-15_Trade_1-12.png

Hindsight (a wonderful thing) says that I should have let that trade fall as it did and taken a long straight away (S&R Trade). This would have then enjoyed a nice long run, but thems the breaks. Still, I believe that trade was correctly taken and simply a rent on a good opportunity. DS +1 to 8/12.

One note for myself maybe though is that I still am quite methodical and thought driven with taking a trade. One barrier I need to push through is to feel the market more and take the signals without much thought, but just the simple confirmation of the few simple rules. Any other decisions (ie price action etc) should be made before a trade and not in consideration when a signal occurs.

[Kyle]

Next one, for my LO trades today.
This was a fruit trade, which appeared at the possible peak of w3, so I did know I was trading into a possible w4 and would not be a long lasting trade. However, I took it and it immediately went in my favour (sounds a familiar theme of late), then created a new AIMS level and I took the breakout add-on with it. Unfortunately, that trade did not want to fall further and it was stopped out.

2015-04-16_Trade_1-13.png

I initially was going to give the DS a +1 on this trade, but after having a look at it after trading was done, I realised that the initial SL should have been moved to above the new AIMS high - where the Add-in stopped out. Rule in my TP was Stage 2 - After passing through Green line, close on opposite side of AIMS. That would have shaved 6 pips off the rent on this occasion. Due to this, DS was a 0 for a running total of 8/13.

I wont pretend otherwise, I am a little sad after the last few days, however, it is best to recognise it and accept it rather than ignore and fall for revenge trading. Although feeling that way, I do have the discipline to trade the plan as it is meant to be traded. We will all have runs of rents, but they will pale in comparison tot he great trades we make when trading well. The thing to realise, which is a real strength of the Fruit, is that I may have had a string of rents this week, but it will only take a couple of good trades and I will be in new high ground again, so the rents really have not hurt the trading balance.

Just looking back in my results spreadsheet, it is plain as day, the days of 4.55% were not long ago. It happened back then, and it will happen again. Just got to be in the market when it does happen, so keep sticking to that trading plan :-bd

[immy]

Hi Kyle

Thank you for this lovely post. However, I think you've been a bit hard on yourself here. the exit whether above the fruti high or the lower aims high are both ok. The notion of saving some pips on this rent is not something you should keep. By using Stop losses on the opposite side of Fruit we have already covered "cutting your losses" what we often end up doing is that we cut it too short and don't allow it breath. but you have not done that here. the exit was ok. i'll give you a score of 1.

cheers

[Kyle]

End of another day. A bit more rent paid, but it was a correct trade. I really need to recognise when a trade is not working out and close before it hits SL so I can take an also valid trade in the opposite direction.
Firstly missed the wonderful LO session today due to work. Luckily, I will be in all day tomorrow on O/T which will make up for it, but cut out on some planned reading activities.

Started the NEO session with a little price action, however, after a little while, the price dived down, giving a w4 (at the time) and great angulation. no hesitation. I was ready before the close of the candle for the trade and took the long as soon as the candle closed. It was closing at the top of the bar, so I wanted to be ready so I wouldn't miss it. Initially, it went up nicely, then reversed almost to SL but bounced nicely and pushed through the newly created AIMS level for an add-on position.
Soon after that, a short fruit signal came in, which is where I need to learn a few things. I held on to the trade from there to its natural conclusion at the SL (-10.5, -20.5 pips). More experienced people in the trading room, recognised the failing of the long position and reversed on the opposite fruit, quickly covering the rents and making real nice profit (31 pips to 7 risk plus add-ons). meanwhile, I held on to the initial trades and as such, did not take the other positions. Although there were things I didn't do that others did, I score this with a DS of 1 as it was to the plan still.
See the same trades, trade the same systems for very different results.

Disappointing week so far, but a day to go to have some positive trades. We will always have down weeks etc, so I'll simply finish this one off trading the method, and re-load for a positive week next week.

2015-04-17_Trade_1-14.png

[zlabis]

...I really need to recognise when a trade is not working out and close before it hits SL so I can take an also valid trade in the opposite direction. ...

Kyle,
have you ever thought about taking valid signals in opposit direction while prior trade is still running? It costs a bit of pips as opposite trades are averaging out each other but it can help to catch the signals if they appear and the SLs don't need to be brought too close too soon. Sure, we have to keep an eye on danger of overtrading.

It's just my opinion.

Cheers
Michael

[Kyle]

A quick one today. I missed the breakout right on LO. Also missed an ideal fruit entry just prior to NEO, but I had decided to trade from NEO anyway, so I am discounting that trade. On NEO though, I took a breakout short and went in to profit nicely. Risk was around 19 pips, and profit went as high as 80 pips, but the trade closed out on trailing AIMS level with 56 pips profit from it. Ideally, I should have taken one add-on when AIMS got reduced from 43 pips to 15 pips, but was not on the ball enough for it to happen. For that, i will keep the DS on this one at 0. Must do everything correctly.
Chart attached

2015-04-22_2357.png