Thomas's journal [trading The Hunt on H1]

[immy]

so you went short and you added on, like you're stating that all the odds are in your favour and I want to milk this setup. but you should have been rather, "ok i'm trading into an apparent wave 4, the success of this setup depends on this being a complete reversal and the next wave down really turningi nto a new 3 down. but where would I know that I am wrong?" The question is very interesting. So you'd then say, "right, so if this turns into a wave 4, where does a wave 4 usually end? hmmm, oh yes, 8 out of ten times, price pulls back to the previous wave 4 (the wave 4 of previous 3 up in this case, which is oftern around 50% retrace) so then if price stops going futher around that area that might be the end of 4 down. Perhaps i'll stop and reverse there and catch the next 5 up. "

hope this makes sense too

[immy]

however in this case it actually went down and hit the lows of 4 and then went back up, almost all the way to top, (the next day early morning 3rd bar was a fruit short again) and this time (going into C down) it was a big violent but it went back to the peak of wave 1 up, and that happened to be near a BRN 0.70000 and created a strong fruit up. That then was a proper exit and reversal long sigal for me. but i know its easy for me to say it now as its Hindsight. But this is how we learn... I hope this makes sense

[immy]

There are two things most important to us in our AIMS trading concept.
1. Risk Management: every setup is measured by this standard. is the reward at least 2 times of the risk? Possible Reward. How do you know possible reward? its simple. If we use the law of Chaos then we can use TZ1/TZ2. and by judging the length of Wave 3, we can always have a fair idea that if the next wave really is 5, then its 80% chance that it will end up between TZ1 and TZ2. So that is your "possible" rather "probable target" and based on this knowledge you can qualify your trade.

2. The Structure
A lot of us actually forget why we focus on the science of chaos. We believe in it. We believe that the universe is all energy and that everything has an always present usually unseen underlying structure and that the structure of the market is Elliott Wave. However there is this problem. When we talk Elliott wave people immediately take their rulers, yard sticks and measuring tapes. And suddenly they forget that we are dealing with Chaos, and Chaos is Non-Linear. Just like if you multiply 3 miles into 5 meters, you won't get the right answer, you won't get the right answers if you apply Linear methods to measure non-linear problems. Waves are NEVER perfect, in terms of Linear Geometry but they are always Perfect, exactly as they were supposed to be, in terms of Science of Chaos.

[ElBarto]

Much info you provided here, Immy. A lot of starting points to think about for me.

I really appreciate the time you immolate in my journal.
Hopefully, I'm able to transpose your input and become a better trader.

[immy]

I forgot to mention, that just like the market has a structure, we too have an unseen intangible structure. The Mind. and the mind is a cluster of Belief Systems. What your beliefs are about Success, Trading, Money, Progress, Performance, Growth, Life in general, will all dictate how you behave in the market.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 9/3

Summary

• Pair: NZD/USD
  Entry: N/A + Box Add-On
  Risk: 30.5 P + 67.1 P
  Exit: Box trail
  Result: 28.6 P - 6 P = 22.6 P, 0.94 R - 0.09 R = 0.85 R
  DS: 0

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Alligator on H1 is sleeping, but not completely inside a Box. Nevertheless, there's a Fruit indicating a possible end of Wave 4 down and price retraced to 38.2 % of Wave 3's length, too.
  • Aim is to hit a possible Wave 5 up on H1, as the TZ1 is around 0.7266, which offers a Reward to Risk of ~ 3:1 for the initial entry.
  • Alligator on H4 is open to the upside.
  • Price on H4 is in a Wave 3 up. It peaked, retraced back to Alligators Green Line and might now be going into Wave 5 of this Wave 3 (with TZ1 also around 0.7266).
  • eWaves on H4 indicates a Wave 3 up, shows a new peak, but no Divergence, yet.
  • Alligator on D1 is open to the upside.
  • Price on D1 is in a Wave 5 up. One day ago, there was valid Fruit. But, as TZ1 is around 0.7352 and no Divergence visible, I won't consider it as a sign of Wave 5s end.

• Post-trade remarks:
  • Box breakout was missed. But, as price was still near the upper AIMS-Level, that would have triggered the entry, I decided to place a PO above the Candle, that broke through the Box (DS = 0).
  • The Add-On could and should have been avoided, as the Reward:Risk untill the expected TZ1 was only 0.5:1 at the beginning.
  • I hoped for a final push into Wave 5 of Wave 5, to hit TZ1, before going into Corrective Wave.
  • There was Divergence on H4, which ended its Wave 3 up.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 10/3

Summary

• Pair: EUR/USD
  Entry: Box breakout + Momentum Add-On + Box Add-On + Box Add-On
  Risk: 25.5 P + 41.6 P + 38 P + 49.2 P
  Exit: Box trail
  Result: 106.4 P + 92.3 P + 6.3 P - 4.9 P = 200.1 P, 4.17 R + 2.22 R + 0.17 R - 0.1 R = 6.46 R
  DS: 1

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Alligator on H1 is going to sleep, but not completely inside a Box, yet.
  • Box on H1 is still relatively tight.
  • Alligator on H4 is open to the upside.
  • Price on H4 is in a Wave 3 up. It finished its 1-2 sequence and now is going into Wave 3 of Wave 3.
  • eWaves on H4 indicates a Wave 3 up, shows a new peak and a slight decrease in bullish Momentum.
  • Alligator on D1 is going to open to the upside.
  • Price on D1 is in a Corrective Wave (C) up.
  • As I couldn't find any TZ on H1, aim is to hit a possible Impulsive Wave up, which ideally forms a Wave 3 on H4.

• Post-trade remarks:
  • After price shot up, I waited for a retrace and placed the SL under the new formed lower AIMS-Level. As this was a valid lower Level on M15 and later on H4, too, I kept it there untill the end of H1's Wave 4.
  • I started Box trail at the vertical line, after price was going into Wave 5.
  • I placed the second Add-On above the high of Wave 3. There would have been an earlier posibility, but I wanted to be "sure" that price is going further up and into a Wave 5.
    This Level marked an upper AIMS-Box on H4, too.
  • There was a valid Fruit on top of Wave 5, which would have been the perfect spot to exit the campaign. Also, there was a Fruit and Divergence to sign the end of Wave 3 on H4, too.
    But, as eWaves's suggested TZ1 was still more than 60 Pips away, I decided to keep trailing Boxes.

[immy]

Hey Thomas, i know its great that you've managed to hold this trade this long but really is there a need to do this? I htink you could have taken the profits on that reversal fruit on the same day, or closed the add on, or the next day when it closed on green or box break, and then got back in to wave 5 and then followed your exit signals. IMHO. Brilliant trading overall.

[ElBarto]

Hey Thomas, i know its great that you've managed to hold this trade this long but really is there a need to do this? I htink you could have taken the profits on that reversal fruit on the same day, or closed the add on, or the next day when it closed on green or box break, and then got back in to wave 5 and then followed your exit signals. IMHO. Brilliant trading overall.

To answer your rhetorical question: no, there's absolutely no need to hold positions that long. At least presumably, as I've no long term experience to compare.
I always fight with myself: letting trades run and apply Box trail or close them on what I think are signals counter the open positions.
Untill now, almost always the first variation wins, because "if I close the trades now prematurely, I could miss some huge profits".
This is what's called greed. I will definitely have to work on this aspect.

[ElBarto]

Trade campaign 11/3

Summary

• Pair: USD/JPY
  Entry: Box breakout + Box Add-On + Momentum Add-On
  Risk: 64.1 P + 88.8 P + 140.2 P
  Exit: Box trail
  Result: 92.5 P + 64.2 P + 14.5 P = 171.2 P, 1.44 R + 0.72 R + 0.1 R = 2.26 R
  DS: 1

About the campaign

• Pre-trade remarks:
  • Alligator on H1 is sleeping.
  • Box on H1 is a bit big. But, due to a possible Reward:Risk of ~ 3:1, still acceptable.
  • Perfect entry would have been Fruit at Vertical Line (1), which I missed due to being asleep.
  • Alligator on H4 is open to the downside.
  • Price on H4 is in a Wave 3 down. It bounced off the Level of Horizontal Line (1), retraced a bit up and now is going into Wave 5 of Wave 3.
  • eWaves on H4 indicates a Wave 3 down, shows a new peak and a slight decrease in bearish Momentum.
  • There is no Divergence on H4, yet.
  • Alligator on D1 is open to the downside.
  • Price on D1 is in a Wave 5 down with a TZ1 at around 99.52.
  • Aim is to hit a possible Wave 5 down, as the TZ1 is around 100.31, which offers a Reward to Risk of ~ 3:1 for the initial entry (Box breakout).

• Post-trade remarks:
  • The first Add-On was placed at Vertical Line (1), which marked the end of Wave 3 on H1 and the end of Wave 3 of Wave 3 on H4 at that time (Reward:Risk of ~ 2:1).
  • The second Add-On was the Momentum Add-On, which's Level turned into a new lower AIMS-Level a few bars later (Reward:Risk of ~ 1:1). I took this as only one Add-On, as two of them would have increased risk unnecessarily.
  • I started trailing Boxes when the second Add-On got triggered.
  • There was a valid Fruit at Vertical Line (3), which marked the end of Wave 5. On H4, a Fruit at Horizontal Line (2)'s Level was formed, too. This would have been the perfect spot to exit the campaign.
    I decided to keep trailing Boxes, as TZ1 was still more than 30 Pips away.