Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

I somehow managed to miss the Famous Forum, but here are some of the best
examples of Famous, although actually, by definition,they all look
much the same. Unfortunately they don't happen all the time but
well worth looking out for

More Famous Screenshots

Yesterday's trade was a break out late LO on H4,H1 and M15. I went in and was stopped for Break even.
I had to wait another hour before it broke out again. The trade then lingered for a full 18 hours
before finally hitting TP for 32 pips at 5.40 this morning.

the very opposite to Famous, price seems to be edging it's way down on EU, but the EU is still
looking remarkably bearish with a possible W5 on M15 following a somewhat sideways moving
corrective W4

but to my eyes, it just seems to be following Gator down quite convincingly on H1 with another impulse
move due, and PO has been placed in anticipation of that

gu 21st.PNG

[immy]

I somehow managed to miss the Famous Forum, but here are some of the best

When I was reading your previous post where you mentioned what you found in Sam's journal I thought, it appears as if he does not know there is a Forum called The Famous. But rejected the thought by arguing as to how would this be true since he's been on this forum for years now. oh well.
Yes, the first post was created by DAVE after our discussion in the Skype group. Sam took the idea rather seriously, and rightly so, and made it HIS way of trading. Sam is now the Famous GUY.

remember Simple but Powerful? its the same thing

[kiravon]

Your first impression was correct, I have read
everything on this forum. When I recently
started reading Sam's journal from start to finish
I was enthralled and also wondered how I could
have missed such a gem of a thread all these
years! - until I came across a post from Kiravon,
-now assuming there is only one of me it would
seem my memory is faulty. Given my enthusiasm
for Sam's results I would definitely have read
The Famous forum also, as you rightly supposed,
and having now re read it through there are many
points that were familiar.

I was also a great fan of 'Simple but Powerful'. and
had quite a bit of success with it

Famous is a great name although Crane and Pancake
are also apt. It is simply the tall vertical impulse box
followed by the thin horizontal pancake box where
you try to catch the breakout from FO onwards

together they form the shape of a crane.

It is a great system, but requires a lot of patience,
there is always the temptation to enter prematurely
before the real breakout. Without patience you
might even lose 80%. Strictly speaking no system
gives you a high win rate automatically, although disciplined
traders can achieve this with such a system.

Perfect setups are not that frequent, but well worth waiting for

''Here is a concept of "hot pair" in the currency markets. The pit traders
used to find out which item is hot and they used to trade only the ones
that moves. ... this concept of hot pair could be very useful to us.
E.g. do not trade the pair that has not moved in the pre-session or
during the start of the session.''

Famous D1.jpg

[immy]

Thank you for digging that screenshot. I love it if I may say so myself. Enjoy being Famous

[kiravon]

I remember reading on a forum, a very well
respected member announcing his departure
as he had concluded that trading is a 'mug's game',
just gambling as the market moves completely
randomly, so if you ever win it can only be luck,
- before your account is wiped out, which is
inevitable as the odds are stacked against you.

I remember how discouraged I felt reading
this, not from a newbie, but an experienced trader

At such times its good to reflect on positive experiences,
things you personally know are true.

I have many such things.

The greatest success I ever had was for several months
I was following one mentor who had a simple divergence
system that had been profitable for many years.

He gave a free trade of the week which I took on a live
account and they won every single week for several months.

It did require an extremely wide stop (or no stop) which I
didn't like, plus trades could literally drag on for weeks
and even months which just didn't suit me, even though they
always won in the end.

But at least I know for a certainty that trading can definitely
be profitable over the longterm as I have personally experienced
it.

Also I have found many strategies that just always seem to
work. I don't necessarily trade them but I am aware of how
reliable they can be.

One good example I can give here because it is AIMS related

Next time you feel like quitting, like the guy above, just try
monitoring the following:-

Where AO is moving in a definite direction, note the candlestick
patterns. Let us say AO has peaked and is now moving down -
Look for a 'stalky' candle ( which has more stalk than body) and
whose high and low are both lower than the previous candle's
high and low - price will continue in that direction.

In the screenshot below there are 19 examples of this and every
single one would have been profitable. This is very typical!

You don't have to trade this strategy to be encouraged by it.

There are many such strategies that you pick up over the years
and often they can tell you whether you should enter or keep
away from an AIMS setup. Collectively they form your skill
in reading the market.

or what about if you have two consecutive inside bars following a
big candle in an impulsive move? I'll let you do your own
backtesting on that but you will be pleasantly surprised and
encouraged.

I'm not suggesting you follow any such insights as a system, the
point simply being, as in the example below, that the market
is not always random and out to get you. At times it does
act predictably enough to at least give you a very definite edge

AO.png

[kiravon]

In the screenshot in my last post I had
an open trade. That wasn't relevant
to the discussion.

but ironically a stalky candle has since
formed in a downtrend. This is the
twentieth occurence of this in one
screenshot!

The last nineteen were all profitable.

So does this mean that logically my
current trade will be profitable and
hit the TP which is very realistically placed?

Yes, it is a very high probability trade and will
almost certainly win. Most my trades win.

But Friday evening, or some other factor
might catch me out and it could lose.
It doesn't matter. What matters is how
I will be affected

I'm not trading these candles as a setup
but the last 19 would have won. If I lose
on the twentieth I would just consider
it to be very unlucky, and indeed very
unusual.

I am way past the guy above - 'Oh no! its
all falling apart! the strategy has stopped
working! its a mug's game after all!'

I base my assessment on known reality.
I know what nearly always works in the market
and follow my intuition. So I never have
doubts about strategy.

I do have doubts about mindset, and that
is now where 80% of my focus is.

I am a victim of my own success - winning
20 out of 20 is easy for me, I really can do
that but I don't stop at confidence, or
overconfidence - I soar to giddy heights
of invincibility!!!!

Then, I am obliged to leave off trading for
a week or so to focus on other responsibilities.

then, when I return to trading the same thing
always happens - I get a whole string of losers!!

why?

there is no easy answer to this but this is precisely
what Mark Douglas always came back to! Our
propensity for self sabotage is more than a
little disturbing

In conclusion, trading definitely isn't a mug's game
unless you are a mug

I recognize my idiotic behaviour so there is hope
for me.

I have very robust systems, quite impressive chart
reading ability, but due to flawed psychology, I still
regularly fail to act in my own best interests!

It's like a Jekyll and Hyde situation, I can switch
from seasoned prudent trader to reckless imbecile
at the drop of a hat!

As regards systems, its been proven that you can succeed
by simply trading on the toss of a coin, with good money
management. Personally I don't even need a system or
any indicators to be profitable.

so there is absolutely no basis for being negative about
trading because all success lies within.

Its no mere cliche - Success in trading is all about psychology!

AO2.png

[kiravon]

Monday was the day of prophecy
This morning my PO was hit
TP above TZ1 for +37 pips

If you can see the trade going into
a W5 thats great, but if you can't
there is no disadvantage

When you see the pancake forming
you trade the breakout.

Just one or two of these a week
is enough to really grow your account
as Sam and others have demonstrated

famous.png

[baldeagle]

Mickey,

Once again you seem to be trolling in similar waters. Below is a link that discusses these issues with some supporting videos. He also has a $.99 book on Amazon.
Ed
http://whatispersonaldevelopment.org/fi ... et#more-24

[kiravon]

Another great day of prophecy yesterday with a
Famous clearly emerging on EU.

On the 15m we had a very clear pancake forming
with a new W5 as clear as the nose on your face.

So, not confident I would get up in time for FO
I set my PO.

Just like a small child in the Stamford university
experiment who can't resist eating the marshmallow
immediately, when to delay gratification would
result in being rewarded with extra marshmallow

and that is precisely the behaviour of 98% of traders
- again, a simple matter of 'not acting in our own best
interest'

I was really eager to win another Famous, - two consecutive
wins, one every day has great appeal.

But we have to look at the bigger picture, regardless of
whether you are trading AIMS or any other system.

So standing back and opening up the H4 chart I really
didn't like what I saw. I could still see the long impulsive
Famous move down, and sure enough it was starting to move
horizontally.

but price had just hit a very significant level of support.

This didn't mean that this Famous was doomed to fail,
but it did mean that the chances of success were not 80%,
probably less than 50%.

In other words it had all the prudence of the Light Brigade
storming into the Valley of Death.

So I cancelled my PO and here is the point...

I really didn't want to!!!

My instinct was to ignore what I was seeing, to pretend it
wasn't there. I wanted to win this Famous

and this is what losing is all about - this childish mentality
that simply can't delay gratification. Patience is key.

It's 11am as I write and this Famous might still win, that
will be a pity - if it emboldens me, or anyone else
to be impulsive or reckless in the future

One mentor put it this way - if your cat jumps onto your
keyboard and accidentally triggers a trade that wins
- would you be pleased? Would you want him to regularly
jump on the keyboard to hopefully replicate that win
- why not get bring the dog in on the act too!

If others say trade everything that looks like a Famous,
and don't ask too many questions, that's fine. I'm not
here to teach anyone except myself. - and teaching
myself, even reproving myself in public has much
more force.

For me, trading a Famous under such circumstances
is more like trading the Infamous.

Of course, millions of traders will take this trade
just as an ordinary Breakout, up or down.

and either direction it might win. It might well
reverse at this level of support.

I believe the original S1 did indeed trade the breakout
in either direction until Snorm came up with 'Purple'
to reduce unnecessary losses

and we trade away from Purple, not into it, hopefully
looking for a new W5 aiming for TZ1.

On the surface this setup meets all the criteria and
it would be so easy to justify taking the trade.

To have any chance of success we need to be free
of the need to trade

It isn't easy.

flawed famous.png

.

and here we see the problem on the H4

.

The Infamous.png

[kiravon]

It's amazing how many things are hidden in plain sight!

- and also how much there still is to learn.

I recently learned that price will usually make a lunge
at a nearby significant level as it nears the close
of it's respective time frame.

Now that's really worth knowing - you could actually just
trade that one insight alone although i'm not
suggesting anyone should.

There's an excellent example below -

a highly significant level in thick red, before that we have
two stalky candles and a bearish divergence candle
indicating more downward action supported by Ewaves

and we're near the significant level - things are looking very good

and while I'm at home I'm not using stops and tp orders, never
good to let the broker know your intentions

rather I have my new toy - sound alerts above, below or exactly
on the line, so I know when sl or tp is about to be hit for manual
close of the order

Price-Above-Below-Audio-Alert-Indicator.mq4

last minute.png