Ramy's Journal

[rsaemy]

NEWs Trade (Outside of my T20s taken on a separate account)

Currency: USD
Pairs: EURUSD & USDJPY
NEWS: September NFP
Result: Images below

Comment: After the spike there was no valid hunt on M1. The pairs has performed full reversal in the opposite directions

[immy]

oh yeah ... I love the NEWS trades ... NFP is a Religious Obligation ... while the world is scare of news ... we thrive on them.... nice

[rsaemy]

oh yeah ... I love the NEWS trades ... NFP is a Religious Obligation ... while the world is scare of news ... we thrive on them.... nice

Thanks Immy ^:)^ ^:)^

I have a question regarding after news trading... The 2 scenarios i found for after news were:

1. The price will form a valid hunt signal on M1 within W3 created by the spike and after that it will finish that wave as of rest of W3 in the same spike direction then a retrace forming W4 then a W5 probably hitting target zone or near significant level. I took a trade yesterday on CAD news that way.

2. After the news price spike, a W3 will be formed on M1 then price will perform a full reversal in the opposite direction with no valid hunt signals. That was the case yesterday in NFP on USD pairs.

I found that the price will never stay sideways after the news spike and it has to choose a side (up or down) forming another big move which is good for us

My questions... is there any tips that can give me an initial idea which scenario would happen either a complete wave will happen or complete reversal? Can i say for example if TZ1/TZ2 was hit on HTF (eg. H1) by the news spike i should expect reversal?

[immy]

The simplest answer is that news events are unique events. you can;t predict what will happen after news. rather what happens at news time is the factor that will set the direction for the rest of the period. so if it goes up pulls back and goes back up .. thte that's where you should trade. if it spikes turns around and sets up on the opposite direction then do that ... thats why in our news trading strategy, the spike trading strategy i.e., we set a pre news price level noted just 5 seconds before news event. that becomes the pivot point. price must not spike back and take the other side. if it does we don't trade.

ps: both of the scenario observed and mentioned by you are only a minute portion of what the market is capable of. so one cannot say with certainty that this will happen.

[rsaemy]

The simplest answer is that news events are unique events. you can;t predict what will happen after news. rather what happens at news time is the factor that will set the direction for the rest of the period. so if it goes up pulls back and goes back up .. thte that's where you should trade. if it spikes turns around and sets up on the opposite direction then do that ... thats why in our news trading strategy, the spike trading strategy i.e., we set a pre news price level noted just 5 seconds before news event. that becomes the pivot point. price must not spike back and take the other side. if it does we don't trade.

ps: both of the scenario observed and mentioned by you are only a minute portion of what the market is capable of. so one cannot say with certainty that this will happen.

Thanks for the info Immy... Appreciated
I am pretty sure nothing certain in that business
I will keep testing

[immy]

The exercise of instilling probabilistic mindset i.e. 5 Batches of T20 is designed to make you think differently. Its not about "predicting" what will the market do next. Its about, "what will give you an edge in the market over the course of next 20 -100 trades" ... we can only take decisions based on what we know already... prediction in trading is only done in a probabilistic manner. At any given time when you see a setup, it only suggests that one thing has slightly higher probability of happening over the other. if possible, do not allow yourself to think in definitive terms such as "if market goes this way then this will do this" "i have noticed taht if market does x then it would do y" ... these observations are simply not provable not testable

IMHO

[rsaemy]

The exercise of instilling probabilistic mindset i.e. 5 Batches of T20 is designed to make you think differently. Its not about "predicting" what will the market do next. Its about, "what will give you an edge in the market over the course of next 20 -100 trades" ... we can only take decisions based on what we know already... prediction in trading is only done in a probabilistic manner. At any given time when you see a setup, it only suggests that one thing has slightly higher probability of happening over the other. if possible, do not allow yourself to think in definitive terms such as "if market goes this way then this will do this" "i have noticed taht if market does x then it would do y" ... these observations are simply not provable not testable

IMHO

Totally agree Immy and that is something i need to work on
I can't plan the market

[immy]

But one thing is proven to me emphatically since both mine and Steve's accounts have more than doubled using this no effort simple news trading method... And one of the account is public on myfxbook for you to see. I'm sure you already have it. I don't even trade on that account with much care since its a small account and I am running it simply to test Steve's EA. (it started as a test and its since gone up by 114%) I've missed many trades on it else it would have been above 200% for sure... but I do apply the same method to my other accoutns and it adds to the overall trading business. It compliments it nicely. It can be done with ATM as well. Simply pick the pair you want to trade, relevant to the news, (i only use EUR/USD and UJ and use only eu and dollar news) and put a pending long and short using the boxes on M1 chart... have your TP at 2R. Either one or both will trigger.

cheers

[rsaemy]

BATCH NO.1
Trade No. 15 & 16
Date: 11/09/2017

Pair: GBPUSD
TF: M15
Signal Type: The Setup into possible W5

Outcome: BE for Both
DS: 1 (Total 15/16)
Comment: Took the first entry on my Phone... SL was tight and consequently me 1R was close and it hit BE... Second Entry was BE as well because the price retracted from Yesterday High level. If the first entry worked out, it would have been easy 2R before YL high

[rsaemy]

BATCH NO.1
Trade No. 17
Date: 11/09/2017

Pair: USDJPY
TF: M15
Signal Type: The Setup into possible W5

Outcome: 2R
DS: 1 (Total 16/17)
Comment: The Setup didn't have a hunt Signal on H1 but still worked out quiet fine