Immy's Corner [The Setup The Hunt - T20's and more]

[Herbert]

\m/ Excellent capture Immy...

[wiseambitions]

I think the bit about being the right side of the trend is one of the greatest points about the system. It is not emphasised properly, if ever at all, in many other systems, and this is the single greatest defence against getting wrong footed in bad trade entries.

Let's remember the purple line is like the MA of 40 candles in M1, and 200 minutes (3 and a bit hours) in M5, which is 5 times longer than the middle line of the gator.

I find it always worth visiting the chart for the next 2 time frames up to get an idea of what's happening in slow motion, and this confirms the advice not to trade towards the purple line unless there's very good reason.

There are still occasions where the trend direction is ambiguous, and this is prone to happening on days when the trend changes over. We might have experienced a bit of that during today (Thursday). One needs to decide whether it's safe to trade or better to wait until the direction is more clearly decided. Seeing as I only need 5 or 10 pips a day to achieve my target I need to develop more patience to wait for the right moment to trade. To do this is far more productive than getting into a trade which needs baby sitting or important decisions about quitting.

[immy]

Wise Words Ray! Thank you

Here is a picture!

07-12-2012 07-42-55.png

A Setup is a Setup is A setup.
Let the market speak to you , you'll know which ones to take and which ones to leave. Trust me its True... TRUST THE MARKET ITS INSIDE YOU<>

07-12-2012 09-27-53.png

[09:14:50] Will-AIMS: once 1-5 completed, i know previous AIMS levels become harder to break. less momementum means less power to smash levesl.
[09:15:33] Will-AIMS: but yesterday it wa all power, it kept on breaking levels... if you had switched to h1, you'd have seen, the area to the left was clean. with clear points to take note of
[09:17:23] Will-AIMS: anyway, I'm not trading naymore. i've hit enough pips for teh week. I will of course. try for a let it run entry in the afternoon. depeneding on how things go. but with this sell out, i guess we have more chance of a confused up adn down fourth wavy market .. but we'll see.
[09:18:36] Will-AIMS: Divergence on M5, oh what the hell, who needs to look at m5 AO when you have m1 AO. M1 eWave showed 1-5 complete. thats it. forget it. take a break and come back for a new wave.
[09:20:00] Will-AIMS: The dots, aims levels and eWave togetehr with Multi fibs, and the power of purple is a compelte MTF system. during the slow grinding markets shifting to m5/m15 to get broder eWave analysis is a point I have in my trading plan.
[09:20:54] Will-AIMS: when you see a completed wave, the mind says, ok so what now?
[09:21:14] Will-AIMS: it may then take you to future, and you may not be able to see it, so it will give you feelings of frustration and uncertainty.
[09:21:59] Will-AIMS: to relieve yourself of that. bring yourself ot NOW. focus on your breathing, take a few deep breath in... and out and do not think. just ofcus on breakthing. it is the easiest safest way to BE and come back to NOW. The power of NOW is amazing.

[Den]

This is exactly how I trade Immy. I find it particularly stress free. I wait for wave 3 to pass and then wait for the retracement. I use the trendline and dot. I only make 10 pips tops but very happy with 5-7 using the expert. I dont know the technical stuff and dont have charts looking like an aerial view of pick up sticks. Losing trades became history and the worst is BE as I trail very quickly. I know I miss the big runs but I get the consistency. I also cherry pick so I am very patient. Thank you and your team and all your wonderful selfless inputs. Happy and prosperous New year to you all.

[immy]

Some Elliott Wave Analysis for the eWave Fans!

Picture 1 of M5 so far the story. Post NFP.

_Picture 2. of M1, showing breakdown of 1-5 of 5th down as shown on m5 above.

ElliottWaveNFPM1-Dec2012.png

[immy]

This is exactly how I trade Immy. I find it particularly stress free. I wait for wave 3 to pass and then wait for the retracement. I use the trendline and dot. I only make 10 pips tops but very happy with 5-7 using the expert. I dont know the technical stuff and dont have charts looking like an aerial view of pick up sticks. Losing trades became history and the worst is BE as I trail very quickly. I know I miss the big runs but I get the consistency. I also cherry pick so I am very patient. Thank you and your team and all your wonderful selfless inputs. Happy and prosperous New year to you all.

Dave!

I salute! Believe me I have the same mind frame. In the past I've even run an m1 trade and counting waves using m1 and m5, and letting it run and gaining massive pips. But its a STRESS-FULL way. The "base hits" as Grant calls it, are THE thing I follow now. I'm happier to get my 1%. And it compounds. You wont believe I managed to hit an average losing trade of 1.18 during Oct/Nov when I was away from UK and traded only 2 hrs max a day. My technique is to find and trade setups that require very very small initial SL. 3pips +spread. and I traded only those and brought to BE very soon, not based on pips rather based on candle/price formation. I'm loving it! all the best

[Den]

Thanks Immy,

I still use version 5 but with Steves e waves. I have said this before, the waves were the missing link for me and I know so called 'professional traders' have stolen aims waves indy and doing well from it. You are the enemy of MT4 brokers B-) shame on you lol.( not forgetting you Steve ).

I am now going back to trading options on stocks and indexes as well as forex and guess what ? ... I will be using AIMS wave education to get me in on wave 5 on short term atm options. Its a real no brainer and exceptionally lucrative.

Certain things have impacted my life and joining AIMS was one of the best decisions I have ever made. I will always be indebted to the input from everyone on this forum. I know I was slinking around in the background but that was because I was not conforming and felt intimidated by some of the chartists and theorists, however I make 5% each trade on average although not every day as I take what I need. Thats it from me.....

[immy]

Den! thanks for your post ... I agree.


Here I'd like to show a few trades that we ought not to take. I'm not proud of it but I'd like to show that even if you're highly disciplined it is quite possible that you may lose your discipline and might got "in to the hole". The key is to recognize this behavior and know that its OK and its normal and happens to everyone. We can always find an easy simple way of that mental rut and get out of it back into the zone. What happened to me as explained in the pic below was what I call "getting into the hole". But it was only for a session. What we need to do as soon as we realize we may be in such a situation is to STOP. Relax do something else, something that puts a smile on your face. Something fun. And then re-read our rules, revise our strategy, forget the past and get on with it again.

how not to trade.png

1. Thought I could see we had a strong move up on M5 and this was Frankfurt Open, I "thought" I'd catch the open breakout. Obviously it was trading into 4th wave of m5. did not work out. I remember I had funny, unsure type of feelings still I ignore them and carried on. Exit was not too bad. Then began a silly shopping!

2. Setup was correct, Dot, sleeping gator, Gator on m5 open, (but going against purple meaning into 5th wave). What was wrong with this? Well nothing really but experience and stats show that if you'd like to play it safe the best rule is to respect the "M5 level too close" rule from the flow chart. It will help you save a few rents at the cost of missing some good ones. There is always a catch, I know, thats chaos for you my dear!

3. A complete revenge trade. I know had it taken off from there, I wont be showing this here but more often than not, trading into purple will get you into trouble. Again if you follow this rule you'd miss many rents at the cost of missing a few odd winners.

4. This trade is similar to 2 and was again an attemp to catch a breakout before it broke an aims level on m5. Paid the price.

5. Something better finally but as you can see it was not a Class 1 good S1 setup. Purple is inside the box but purple is not on the correct side of Gator lines.

Now Look at M5 Chart to the Right: See where I traded all those 5 trades? Not a ver good spot. It was as we can see a red peak of Waves on M5 after a bigger Green peak. Meaning this was possibly corrective wave on m5. We need to find M5 Trends, strong ones and the ntime entries on m1 to get more out of it.

But its not all doom and gloom. If you take the inner fractals you'll also have an advantage. Which is that your rents will be smaller but more in number but you will have an advantage which is, you wont miss those big trends. Thats ofcourse if you do not mess up your exit, as I did below. This day I was not in the zone, I was trying hard.

15-12-2012 14-10-07.png

Now Look at complete picture. The spots where we make money, the higher probability spots are "Breakouts in the Direction of Higher Time Frame Trends". Its fractal geometry. It is the Structure of the Market. We want to Trade Impulse Waves within Impulse Waves. We don't want to trade Corrective waves within Impulse waves. We do not want to trade Corrective waves within corrective waves. We want to trade 3 within 3 or 3 within 5, not 3 within 4. We want 3 within 3 and 3 within 5. And that can be done by following THE SETUP!

15-12-2012 14-15-04.png

Below is a picture of M5 Setups. Looking like good M5 setups. Breakouts in the direction of Higher Time Frame Trends. Looking like hitting Wave 5's after 3 on the left. But we did not trade them. Why?

15-12-2012 14-22-02.png

The Answer is because we only trade the Setup. We look at the picture. and the picture that creates Setup 1, was just not apparant. We did not see the picture. below is picture of the setups, expanded from M5 into m1. The yellow lines mark those spots. See it?

15-12-2012 14-22-26.png

[immy]

So Now lets look at some more examples from yesterday. What is the Setup and is it always going to be the same? Are we always going to find exactly identical setups?

Look at this picture!

15-12-2012 14-48-56.png

Now look at this one, this is the follow up of the above? Whats the difference between this and the one that follows.

15-12-2012 14-51-26.png

How about the one before that. Lets see how it looked like on M1 and M5.

15-12-2012 14-54-13.png

In the chart above. We are still in a sideways, range bound market and looking for a proper breakout. We tried to trade this m1. and guess what happened? Check your own charts please. its ok to pay a rent. Its ok, because you cannot hit the winners without trying and when you try, you will end up paying rent over 40% of the time. So remember that in trading winnning does not mean winning 100% of the time. Winning means, winning at the end of 20 Trades. consider 20 trades as One Big trade broken in to 20 pieces. If the end result of that is a Win then you win. But even then. 100 trades could be made of 5 bigger pieces of which each piece consist of 20 trades. So 100 Trades are a Monster Trade. So your Trading account from Jan to Dec is One Trade split into several hundred trades.

[immy]

What should we focus on? Should we find a way to not lose money? Should we find a way to increase our average win loss ratio or should we find out a way how to win more times than we lose?

The tried and tested and still being applied principle is this. No one can consistently maintain an average success rate of over 50%. There are people who've done it but any strategy based on higher success rate would mean beating the odds of Chaos. Because the probability of any setup in forex trading, or any chart based trading is at best 50%. Its funny ins't it? its like we are trading tossing a coin. And it is as long as you trade a Certain Setup and Trade only that Setup. So how do we make money? and here comes the age old cliche'! Let your winners be bigger than our losers. Simple as it may sound, it becomes extremely difficult to maintain because people's minds are generally wired the wrong way for trading. When we lose we go into hope mechanism our minds pamper us and we say, don't worry its going to turn around and when we make a little bit our mind goes into greed and says, grab that profit, cover your losses or you'll end up giving it all back like yesterday. haha thats not going to make you a successful trader. TRUST ME!

We gotta STOP focusing on our losers, in terms of "how to avoid losers while still trading our Setup". That is not going to happen. WE will never STOp losing that 1 or 2 trades in a row. We will ALWAYS have losers and we must always have winners as well. Its just statistical game. OK call it gambling. Call it whatever you like. But if you're playing a game of odds you gotta have a Statistical advantage. We get that statistical edge by keeping our average winners bigger, i'd say, ideally twice as big as our average losers. What we need to focus on is Trading "the setup and only the setup" and then following the Trade Management Rules. Any good trade management plan is so designed that it will keep your Losers small and your winners 'comparatively' and 'relatively' bigger. So if you pay 5pip max rent and average 4 per trade (Note I said average, so it could be average of your entire trading career, a week, an x number of trades etc) you'd need to average 8 and hit trades between the range of BE to as high as possible. Experience and practice shows that with discipline and correct application of The Setup Strategy, YOU can on m1 manage 10pip average winners and 5pip average rents. That is of course, if you follow simple decent trade management rules. e.g. Grants Trade Management plan, which can be written in 4 small line and memorized within 5 minutes. or simply follow dot to dot exit. Even if you add on you will still average 5-7 pip average loss and 7-15 average win. but since you'll be trading more when its trending your ROI will be higher.

I hope this helps. Meanwhile have a great weekend! cheers all!