Minsk T20 - Banana 1H

[Minsk]

it's almost embarrassing to post this... 
effed up again. don't try to be smart. stick to the trading plan => only H1

1 - Trade Number: B4 -T14
2 - Pair Name: USD - JPY
3 - Signal Date: 15-8-2022
4 - Signal Chart Time: no signal on H! 
5 - Signal Time Frame: m5
6 - Signal Type and Number: seed
7 - Buy or Sell: Sell 

8 - D1 Trend:  didn't check 
9 - H4 Trend:  didn't check 
10 - H1 Trend:  it's moving sidesways, breaks box level downwards 

11 - Risk Percentage: 1% 

Flowchart questions:
A - Is there an impulse move?
yes 2 trend candles and fast moving down 3rd candle on H1

B - Is impulse move climactic?
3rd candle is

C - Is there a pause or a pullback?
no pullback yet

D - Is the pullback impulsieve?
NA 

12 - Post-Trade Comments: (Feelings, Analysis, What could have been differently, lessons)
Afraid to miss the move and trying to be smart and enter on m5 instead of just wait for a good setup to present itself on H1. Stay on H1.
I think I have now finally learned this lesson, as I was really pissed off with myself. Instant punishment. Not following plan? Result: You loose!
Capital preservation is more important than missing a move. There will always be next moves. Lost money is lost. That's no problem if loosing and following plan, as the edge will take care of that. But not OK if not following plan and I ruin the edge by eff ups.


13 - Discipline Score For this Trade: DS0 
13.1- If applicable, what is the Reason for DS0:  see 12

14 - Discipline Score Running Total: 8/14 = 0,57
 


 

oh no no no no no .... this is NOT the setup.... nah

 

complere and utter rubbish what I did here.
the only way I learn is getting punished. That happened. I think this specific eff up is now cured.

[Minsk]

No good setups, so no trades.
 

[Minsk]

Because there was red news (Retail Sales  and FOMC Minutes) I didn't take a trade on UJ, I filtered it.
Retail Sales didn't do a lot to price action.
In hindsight I could have taken the signal and be out with 3R profit.
I would have been out way before FOMC Minutes.
Not every red news is a reason to stay out of trades.

[Minsk]

Today no trades taken.
Fitered UJ because of too big signal candle and stuff to the left.
If you need tp think about it, the setup is not clear and clean, so the conclusion is do not take the trade, dont search for one, it needs tp present itself loud and clear.

Looking right now at 21:00 servertime candle it might produce a setup
 

[Minsk]

1 - Trade Number: B4 -T15
2 - Pair Name: EUR-USD
3 - Signal Date: 19-8-2022
4 - Signal Chart Time: 16:00
5 - Signal Time Frame: H1
6 - Signal Type and Number: #2
7 - Buy or Sell: Sell 

8 - D1 Trend:  didn't check 
9 - H4 Trend:  didn't check 
10 - H1 Trend:  down

11 - Risk Percentage: 1% 

Flowchart questions:
A - Is there an impulse move?
yes 3 candles

B - Is impulse move climactic?
no

C - Is there a pause or a pullback?
pullback, 2 candles

D - Is the pullback impulsieve?
no

12 - Post-Trade Comments: (Feelings, Analysis, What could have been differently, lessons)
It's kind of late in the day and just before the weekend, but setup looks good.
I won't hold over the weekend, so I did a  manual close of the trade.
It reached 1R so SL went to BE, closed at about 0.7R.


13 - Discipline Score For this Trade: DS1
13.1- If applicable, what is the Reason for DS0:  

14 - Discipline Score Running Total: 9/15 = 0,6
 

[Minsk]

No trades, no good setups on EU, GU, UJ today.

[Minsk]

No good setups ony charts, so no trades.

[Minsk]

1 - Trade Number: B4 -T16
2 - Pair Name: EUR-USD
3 - Signal Date: 24-8-2022
4 - Signal Chart Time: 14:00
5 - Signal Time Frame: H1
6 - Signal Type and Number: seed
7 - Buy or Sell: Sell 

8 - D1 Trend:  down
9 - H4 Trend:  down 
10 - H1 Trend:  down

11 - Risk Percentage: 1% 

Flowchart questions:
A - Is there an impulse move?
yes 1 candles

B - Is impulse move climactic?
no

C - Is there a pause or a pullback?
pullback, 1 candle, 16.9 pips

D - Is the pullback impulsieve?
no

12 - Post-Trade Comments: (Feelings, Analysis, What could have been differently, lessons)
It's a valid setup, but not the best quality because of stuff to the left. I have skipped these numerous times because of that, and then they go, now I took it, and it's a rent. 
Wait for better setup.

13 - Discipline Score For this Trade: DS1
13.1- If applicable, what is the Reason for DS0:  

14 - Discipline Score Running Total: 10/16 = 0,63

[immy]

1 - Trade Number: B4 -T16
2 - Pair Name: EUR-USD
3 - Signal Date: 24-8-2022
4 - Signal Chart Time: 14:00
5 - Signal Time Frame: H1
6 - Signal Type and Number: seed
7 - Buy or Sell: Sell 

8 - D1 Trend:  down
9 - H4 Trend:  down 
10 - H1 Trend:  down

11 - Risk Percentage: 1% 

Flowchart questions:
A - Is there an impulse move?
yes 1 candles

B - Is impulse move climactic?
no

C - Is there a pause or a pullback?
pullback, 1 candle, 16.9 pips

D - Is the pullback impulsieve?
no

12 - Post-Trade Comments: (Feelings, Analysis, What could have been differently, lessons)
It's a valid setup, but not the best quality because of stuff to the left. I have skipped these numerous times because of that, and then they go, now I took it, and it's a rent. 
Wait for better setup.

13 - Discipline Score For this Trade: DS1
13.1- If applicable, what is the Reason for DS0:  

14 - Discipline Score Running Total: 10/16 = 0,63


 

Hi
this is technically a DS1 trade but the quality of the CONTEXT was at best 2 out 10. 

Markets don't move in one direction forever. 

I can see a huge impulse move up a day before, yet you were betting on the overall continuation of the trend. 

We have got to learn to READ the market while at the same time learn to be objective. 

Like you said yourself, that you've let these setups pass in the past, and you should CONTINUE with that practice. The probabiliyt of making money is higher towards the START or middle of the trend, not hte end of the trend. 

Clearly the market was indicating, that buyers were active. But htat could be just my experience. 

Having said that, as long as you keep taking DS1 trades, over the longer term, you will stay profitable. So hence, DS1 is the ULTIMATE goal. cheers 
 

[immy]

1 - Trade Number: B4 -T16
2 - Pair Name: EUR-USD
3 - Signal Date: 24-8-2022
4 - Signal Chart Time: 14:00
5 - Signal Time Frame: H1
6 - Signal Type and Number: seed
7 - Buy or Sell: Sell 

8 - D1 Trend:  down
9 - H4 Trend:  down 
10 - H1 Trend:  down

11 - Risk Percentage: 1% 

Flowchart questions:
A - Is there an impulse move?
yes 1 candles

B - Is impulse move climactic?
no

C - Is there a pause or a pullback?
pullback, 1 candle, 16.9 pips

D - Is the pullback impulsieve?
no

12 - Post-Trade Comments: (Feelings, Analysis, What could have been differently, lessons)
It's a valid setup, but not the best quality because of stuff to the left. I have skipped these numerous times because of that, and then they go, now I took it, and it's a rent. 
Wait for better setup.

13 - Discipline Score For this Trade: DS1
13.1- If applicable, what is the Reason for DS0:  

14 - Discipline Score Running Total: 10/16 = 0,63




 

Hi
this is technically a DS1 trade but the quality of the CONTEXT was at best 2 out 10. 

Markets don't move in one direction forever. 

I can see a huge impulse move up a day before, yet you were betting on the overall continuation of the trend. 

We have got to learn to READ the market while at the same time learn to be objective. 

Like you said yourself, that you've let these setups pass in the past, and you should CONTINUE with that practice. The probabiliyt of making money is higher towards the START or middle of the trend, not hte end of the trend. 

Clearly the market was indicating, that buyers were active. But htat could be just my experience. 

Having said that, as long as you keep taking DS1 trades, over the longer term, you will stay profitable. So hence, DS1 is the ULTIMATE goal. cheers 
 


 

One more thing... For those who think just go with the HTF trend... that this is the SECRET to trading success... well, not really... 

The HTF trend is only a factor of 4 or 5. Not 10 or 20... e.g. here, the Trend on D1 is DOWN clearly, yet the entry here was STILL a low probability event. Understand the H1 chart and trade it. Get good at it. 
 
For this method and for this time frame of H1, the most important time frame is H1 and then the next one is H4. not D1. 

If trading H4 then D1 is great. If trading on D1, don't even bother with Weekly chart. Trust me, when you back test, you will hardly EVER test the HTF trend. I mean, when I was doing the comprehensive testing on Banana , the COMPUTER never looked at H4 or D1. All the testing was done on a single time frame... I don't know why people even bother with D1 chart? ... we are NOT trading supply/deman price action. We are trading TRENDS...